Discussion of future prediction of GDP of Bangladesh!!!

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

According to page 11 of Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank Bangladesh likely to grow at the 4th highest rate in the world between 2011-2050 at a rate of 7.5%.

http://www.thewealthreport.net/The-Wealth-Report-2012.pdf

If true at PPP Bangladesh's GDP will be 4.4 trillion considering present gdp of 259 B USD. But this value is huge underestimated figure and based on 1995 base year which government is planning to upgrade to 2005 to include most of the new emerging industries such as private bank, many business and trading companies, private mobile phone operators, private universities, hospitals, real estate companies etc. which is not counted in present calculation of GDP. So this will be interesting to see how much GDP will rise due to changing of the base year and it is without taking into consideration of the black economy which finance ministry put 37-81% of the economy and not counted into it.

So if the revised value is even 300 B usd (PPP) at 7.5% gdp growth rate Bangladesh's economy will be 5 trillion USD. But if through proper policy if Bangladesh able to achieve 8% GDP growth in this period which is not impossible Bangladesh's economy will be slightly higher then projected Egypt's GDP of 6.02 trillion dollar and that means Bangladesh will be in the top 10-12 economy of the world.

Hope Bangladesh's government instead of throwing mud at each other will work hard to achieve and keep 8% GDP growth and to place Bangladesh in the top 10 world economy.

So what is the future prediction of Bangladesh's GDP by you?? If we upgrade the gdp to 2005 base year then how much we can expect rise in GDP of Bangladesh!!!

 

[scholseys]

I think lot of our gdp growth is cooked up by the awami league government, I maybe wrong; i am no economist. Everywhere and everyone i see is in a whole lot of debts and in financial trouble.

 

[Roybot]

 

[Nishan_101]

BD is going for J-10Bs.... or not?

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Thanks for posting... I have made the thread based on the page 11 table.

But I am curious to know how much GDP growth will be there if we upgrade base year to 2005.

 

[scholseys]

Thanks roybot for posting that bro, our residential jamai

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

But I believe through proper planning gdp growth can be raised and maintained in between 8-10%.

 

[idune]

First, no one should trust these western financial intitutions forcast. We have seen how cooked up their forcast on US/EU and now western economies are under mountain of debt and failing left and right.

Second, Bangladesh economy had been growing mainly based on three engines, agricultural growth, Garment export and manpower export. Among these three,

1. There is not much room for agri growth with declining water supply(indian dam and other causes) and because of land limitation.
2. Manpower export growth had been largely stalled and growth in remittance will be very marginal unless there is drastic improvement in manpower export.
3. Garment which had been growing mostly because of price competetiveness are fast loosing it because, over 12% inflation increasing labor cost and increase in gas and electricity price hitting production cost. Not to mention shortage of gas and electricity.

On top of that to facilitate next level of GDP growth, infrastructure, power, port and manpower need to be improved vastly. With extraordinary amount of borrowing by current regime major portion of future govt revenue will be tied to debt servicing and will not have enough left to maintain even existing infrastructure; let alone improve with new one.

That means any future govt will face with crippling reality.

Million dollar question is how to get out of this depressive state? I have my own set of suggestion but lets see what others come up with first?

 

[Ammyy]

So that mean current government is doing good ???

I think its hard to accept that on PDF

 

[scholseys]

First, no one should these wester financial intitution forcast. We have seen how cooked up their status on US and EU and western economies are failing left and right.

Second, Bangladesh economy had been growing mainly based on three engines, agricultural growth, Garment export and manpower export. Among these three,

1. There is not much room for agri growth with declining water (indian dam and other causes) and because of land limitation.
2. Manpower export growth had been largely stalled and grow in this will be very marginal unless there is drastic improvement.
3. Garment which had been growing mostly because of price competetiveness are fast loosing it because of over 12% inflation increasing labor cost and increase in gas and electricity price hitting production cost. Not to mention shortage of gas and electricity.

On top of that to facilitate next level of GDP growth infrastructure, power, port and manpower need to be improved vastly. With extraordinary amount of borrowing by current regime major portion of govt revenue will be tied to debt servicing and will not able to maintain even existing infrastructure let alone improve with new one.

That means any future govt will have face crippling reality.

Million dollar question is how to get out of this depressive state? I have my own set of suggestion but lets see what others come up with first?

This......there is no power, government is not giving any permission for new factories. I don't see how such figures show up, these are cooked up. Our spinning sector and garments sector took a major hit for the past couple of years. Our manpower business is all but destroyed, yes we are doing well in the agri growth but most of it is consumed by our own population. I don't see how we are getting foreign currency.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

So that mean current government is doing good ???

I think its hard to accept that on PDF

This has nothing to do with current government... Bangladesh was supposed to get 7% gdp growth in 2007 but due to political turmoil of that time it fall apart and this year or may be next year it will be achieved. So virtually we have lagged behind 5-6 years. Now lets see whether next target we can achieve or not and that is 8% GDP growth by 2015 and 10% by 2018-2021.

 

[boltu]

My personal thoughts,Bangladesh is enjoying almost 6.5% growth rate without any significant foreign direct investment.It is happening just because it has a very strong entrepreneurial population and these small entrepreneurs will keep investing despite political,social conditions of the country.Within next 5-6 years,if the electricity problem can be solved then i can see FDIs flourishing the country's economy.So by 2018-2020 i don't see any problem of getting 9-10% growth rate.

 

[kobiraaz]

Lmfao, these indians are better Awami supporters than their Bangladeshi counterparts... Never heard any awami league supporter in bd talking about any success in economy.....

 

[Maira La]

Million dollar question is how to get out of this depressive state? I have my own set of suggestion but lets see what others come up with first?

If your suggestion goes deeper than "just vote BNP to power", I'm looking forward to it!

For me , here's my 1-point demand: Khaleda & family and Hasina & family must say bye bye to politics. The sooner the better.

 

[scholseys]

If your suggestion goes deeper than "just vote BNP to power", I'm looking forward to it!

For me , here's my 1-point demand: Khaleda & family and Hasina & family must say bye bye to politics. The sooner the better.

will not happen