DIFFERENT TAKE - Economy grew at 5.2% under old method: BofA-ML report

[Nilgiri]

Indian economy was already well managed

No it wasn't. The country was growing inspite of the reckless fiscal situation the UPA 2 govt had got itself into....not because of it. I'm not even going to bring in the corruption, lack of direction of reform, over reliance on trickle down effect and complete long term paralysis......because just the fiscal deficit profligacy is quite sufficient in illustrating how bad the UPA 2 administration was.

but Pakistan economy under Zardari govt had not only the problem with growth but be it close to 9% deficit,revenue growth rate on average was 3-4%(except for last year) and even on inflation front(inflation in 2009 when in the region was at historic low like today,Pakistan inflation was beyond 20%)

Fair point. Yes if we are talking relatives, you have a solid point and I won't dispute it. The benchmark that I have for India has always been China (and South Korea in the 70s and 80s) regarding growth trajectories. Whenever it underperforms severely (in my view and sheer growth rate is only one part of the story)....I basically call it mismanagement....even though it can be tempered by comparing with various other countries.

The IMF program for Pakistan was not growth oriented,i remember reading something like this when they agreed to it in 2013 but rather to stabilize the economy indicators.

The IMF is a farce when it comes to promoting growth. @Jacob Martin (when he is back from his ban) can explain it much better than I could. So I am not surprised at all.

My own prediction for this year growth are 4.8-5% because LSM performance also improved in the first quarter

Well lets hope this growth increases more in the coming years. Pakistan cannot afford to be stuck at 5% growth in the long term.

 

[Saurabh jindals]

Monthly Manufacturing figures are lowest of two years for nearly six months..................Exports are low.............How is the economy growing at 7.5% /5.2%..................I feel the actual figures should be far low

Manufacturing sector growth slumps to 25-month low in November - The Economic Times

Have you checked Chinese Manufacturing sector growth slumps to 36-month low in November. Even Considering they are manufacturing economy is even bigger headache still they managed to grow in 6.8 % .
Also PMI is 49.8 since last 2 months means they actually contracted comparatively to last year in manufacturing.
But still I say there is many other things on which GDP depends. So I dont doubt on chinese nos.
India is service economy and service growth is 8% this quarter.
There is no way India will manipulate its nos. Its like riding a lion. and for how long can it ?
STOP DOUBTING !!

 

[PoKeMon]

India was Never a Failed State and will never be..............If i speak as an investor............Modi didn't move reforms as expected and...BJP should go for FDI in retail which will be a game changer .............This will keep the Essential Commodities at Check.....and Farmers will get reasonable price for their products

How can reform be swiftly induced when thugs in upper house dont allow it?

 

[HariPrasad]

Both the sets of data can be correct without contradicting the other. In fact, there is no apparent contradiction between the two. The new methodology for GDP calculation analyses data from 500,000 industries that exist now; the earlier from 5,000 which existed in 2004-05. What the BofA-ML report implies is that those 5,000 industries or (1% of the total industry) are growing at 5.2% per annum, which is probably accurate based on a perusal of the data from the disappointing agricultural sector. But that still leaves some 99% of the industries that would be unaccounted for in this report.

Just to give you an example of the 99% industries unaccounted for in this list, the entire E-commerce sector didn't exist in 2005, and hence wasn't included in GDP calculations at all. The smartphone is another sector absent in the old calculation method. The new GDP estimation method takes into account sectors and industries such that this into account for a more accurate picture. That is why the WB, the IMF, the ADB all advise developing nations to upgrade the base year as frequently as possible.

Awesome Simply awesome. now These idiots will stop ranting about old DATA if they are honest.

 

[Saurabh jindals]

Yah all the figures by BJP are totally wrong....they simply rubbed away the minus of the final figure to make it positive....i.e we are actually contracting by more than 7%! An evil sanghi conspiracy!

It seams all Modi haters trolling here, Nobody here know ABC of economy and just taking out there frustration on modi. So, I found there is not only one mani shankar aiyar in India.

 

[arp2041]

of the 68 Years of Indian Independence....looks like all the DIFFERENT TAKES were reserved for the Modi Government

 

[Saurabh jindals]

not just less but india would had been below 6% even today.I remember discussing it with my indian friend when the imf released a report and put india economic growth of 7% for 2018-19

Maybe indeed the economy is not growing as fast as they want to show it with the new method of calculation?exports falling and no major improvement in FDI aswell just tall claims like our govt.

Farhan No country can fake its economic growth Figs, Its like riding a tiger and for how long can anyone do ?
India is majorly service economy and service growth is 8% this quarter. India always least export driven economy but consumption driven.
Have you checked Chinese Manufacturing sector growth slumps to 36-month low in November. Even Considering they are manufacturing economy is even bigger headache Also PMI is 49.8 since last 2 months means their Manufacturing sector actually contracted compare to last year in manufacturing.
Still they managed to grow in 6.8 % .There is many other things on which GDP depends. So I dont doubt on chinese nos.

 

[Vedicity]

Farhan No country can fake its economic growth Figs, Its like riding a tiger and for how long can anyone do ?
India is majorly service economy and service growth is 8% this quarter.

You certainly made up the service growth figure. Where did you get the 8%?

Services growth at five-month low in Nov as confidence slumps| Reuters

India's services industry barely expanded in November, growing at its weakest pace in five months, as firms grew increasingly gloomy about the coming year, a business survey showed on Thursday.

The Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell sharply to 50.1 in November from October's eight-month high of 53.2. A reading above 50.0 indicates growth

For the first time in the 10-year history of the survey, the business expectations sub-index tipped below 50, falling to 49.9 from 53.7 and highlighting firms' pessimism regarding prospects.

"Gloomy PMI data show a broad-based weakness in output, with little prospect of a rebound apparent in the near term," said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit.

"Firms were concerned about stuttering demand and tough economic conditions."

 

[herono1]

It actually means that incompetent Congress government was using wrong method to calculate GDP earlier. India was growing at faster rate earlier than what was reported. India is a much bigger economy than reported.

You certainly made up the service growth figure. Where did you get the 8%?

Services growth at five-month low in Nov as confidence slumps| Reuters

India's services industry barely expanded in November, growing at its weakest pace in five months, as firms grew increasingly gloomy about the coming year, a business survey showed on Thursday.

The Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell sharply to 50.1 in November from October's eight-month high of 53.2. A reading above 50.0 indicates growth

For the first time in the 10-year history of the survey, the business expectations sub-index tipped below 50, falling to 49.9 from 53.7 and highlighting firms' pessimism regarding prospects.

"Gloomy PMI data show a broad-based weakness in output, with little prospect of a rebound apparent in the near term," said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit.

"Firms were concerned about stuttering demand and tough economic conditions."

These are PMI numbers based on polls. They do not have any sanctity.

 

[Saurabh jindals]

You certainly made up the service growth figure. Where did you get the 8%?

Services growth at five-month low in Nov as confidence slumps| Reuters

India's services industry barely expanded in November, growing at its weakest pace in five months, as firms grew increasingly gloomy about the coming year, a business survey showed on Thursday.

The Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell sharply to 50.1 in November from October's eight-month high of 53.2. A reading above 50.0 indicates growth

For the first time in the 10-year history of the survey, the business expectations sub-index tipped below 50, falling to 49.9 from 53.7 and highlighting firms' pessimism regarding prospects.

"Gloomy PMI data show a broad-based weakness in output, with little prospect of a rebound apparent in the near term," said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit.

"Firms were concerned about stuttering demand and tough economic conditions."

You are confused its not for Nov. Its for the quarter when India reported 7.4 %, Now check again and You will get the Ans of your own qus itself

It actually means that incompetent Congress government was using wrong method to calculate GDP earlier. India was growing at faster rate earlier than what was reported. India is a much bigger economy than reported.


These are PMI numbers based on polls. They do not have any sanctity.

Not wrong but old methods which does not represent new fast growing sectors adequetly. Still the Fastest and one of the biggest sector e-commerce is not included in calculation of economic growth.

 

[herono1]

You are confused its not for Nov. Its for the quarter when India reported 7.4 %, Now check again and You will get the Ans of your own qus itself


Not wrong but old methods which does not represent new fast growing sectors adequetly. Still the Fastest and one of the biggest sector e-commerce is not included in calculation of economic growth.

With wrong I mean incomplete method which did not give true picture of growth.

 

[Infinity]

World economy is in slump. .rbi is hoarding for the major 2016 slump thats anticipated. Any major reforms now will have negligible returns.

What i feel is this is the starting of Recession .................Middle East & Russian Economy will bulge under low Crude prises.................Chinese bubble is about to burst....................

One a muslim and another a Christian ...... the only "honest" folks in "secular" India.

Also Don't forget, "terrorism" has no religion. ............ Modi Haters have "no religion" either

You cannot think better than this........................Wahhabi Hinduism

 

[sankranti]

You cannot think better than this........................Wahhabi Hinduism

LOL..... you mean Hindus are Muslims ?

or that Muslims aer Hindus ?

or the Islam is Bad ?

or Hindus are as Bad as Islam ?

......... funny how there is not mention of Christianity in your attempt to slander ..... But I am sure that is intentional and a reflection of a jesus freak like you.

 

[Infinity]

LOL..... you mean Hindus are Muslims ?

or that Muslims aer Hindus ?

or the Islam is Bad ?

or Hindus are as Bad as Islam ?

......... funny how there is not mention of Christianity in your attempt to slander ..... But I am sure that is intentional and a reflection of a jesus freak like you.

‘Wahabi Hinduism’ has hit pluralism: Amit Chaudhuri - Times of India

 

[sankranti]

‘Wahabi Hinduism’ has hit pluralism: Amit Chaudhuri - Times of India

Aww... so cute. You now wants to white wash your Bigotry by pointing elsewhere

Did Amit Chaudhuri Force you to say that ?