Dhaka wants to get connected with 4-nation TAPI gas pipeline

[eastwatch]

Nominal GDP growth rate is close to 15-20% a year could get you to $5 trillion dollar mark. Besides after certain period taka will gain value like chinese yuan. There are lot of things you need to take in consideration. I dont think $5 trillion dollar economy too unrealistic when Japan has a GDP $4 trillion dollar with half the population of BD.

With a 128 million people Japan's GDP is $4.4 trillion. This is something even a very well developed economy like South Korea cannot dream of emulating in per capita term. With a population just more than 50 million South Korean GDP is about $1 trillion. Rather, both the economies of Japan and South korea are falling.

Because Japan did, therefore, a half educated country Bangladesh can do it is a flawed logic. Note, Japan reached a 100% literacy sometime in 1905. Japan has been building its own industries, factories, railways, roads, river bridges, sea bridges, expressways, dams and subways by itself. Japanese are doing all these heavy constructions by themselves, and some, such as its 1st Tokyo subway, before WWII. What is BD's track record? It is nothing or almost nothing.

Japan never sought foreign loan except one time when it planned to build its 500 km long TOMEI Expressway in the '60s. It borrowed some $500 million from propbably UN, but returned the money before the due date. Japan did not develop by begging from others. In comparison, what is our own status?

To know and understand Japan, one has to come and see the industries of Japan. After living in Japan for many years, I am still surprised to see all their huge mills and factories, their transport system, road, railway, shipbuilding, IT and many many other things that have together made a country called Japan. German and France together is not equal to Japan.

When the installed capacity of electricity in BD is only 4000 MW, Japan's capacity is more than 250,000 MW. Is there any country that can churn out industrial/consumer goods without the infusion of electricity? So, ask BD govt to raise the installed capacity of power to just 25,000 MW. Do you have any idea how long it will take for a big talking Bangladesh? Check the track record, it will take a minimum of another 30 to 35 years to reach that point.

It means, it will be already 2047 when we will be producing only 25,000 MW of power. So, now tell me how you are going to produce a $5 trillion worth of goods and services at that time or in 2050 when the available power is only 25,000 MW.

So, do not please talk about Japan when you talk about BD. Every country has a different history of economic development. Yet, all the developed countries have some similarities. But, I do not find our people have any affinity to the mindset of any developed country. So, I believe, our country will make a few pockets of development, but, basically, it will remain almost poor a country with far far less than $1 trillion GDP. Note, this is what the South Korean GDP is today.

 

[jha]

Best option is Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Pipeline. Especially when relation between Myanmar and US are improving.
This Pipeline will go a long way in meeting the needs of eastern states of India and Bangladesh while the proposed pipelines like TAPI,IPI,IOI ( if built ) can cater to West,South and Central region.

 

[TopCat]

I am not going to talk about your 15% -20% growth. It is useless to talk to somebody who has so very shallow a knowledge in economics. With a 128 million people Japan's GDP is $4.4 trillion. This is something even a very well developed economy like South Korea cannot dream of emulating in per capita term. With a population just more than 50 million South Korean GDP is about $1 trillion. Rather, both the economies of Japan and South korea are falling.

Also, I do not understand your logic. Because Japan did, therefore, a half educated country Bangladesh can do it is a flawed logic. Note, Japan reached a 100% literacy sometime in 1905. Japan has been building its own industries, factories, railways, roads, river bridges, sea bridges, express ways, dams and subways. Japanese are doing all these heavy constructions by themselves, some before WWII. What is BD's track record? It is nothing or almost nothing.

Japan never sought foreign loan except one time when it planned to build its 500 km long TOMEI Expressway in the '60s. It borrowed some $500 million from propbably UN, but returned the money before the due date. Japan did not develop by begging from others. In comparison, what is our own status?

To know and understand Japan, one has to come and see the industries of Japan. After living in Japan for many years, I am still surprised to see all their mills and factories, their transport system, road, railway, shipbuilding, IT and many many other things that have together made a country called Japan. German and France together is not equal to Japan.

When the installed capacity of electricity in BD is only 4000 MW, Japan's capacity is more than 250,000 MW. Is there any country that can churn out industrial/consumer goods without the infusion of electricity? So, ask your govt to raise the installed capacity of power to only 25,000 MW. Do you have any idea how long it will take for a big talking Bangladesh? Check the track record, it will take a minimum of another 30 to 35 years to reach that point.

It means, it will be already 2047 when we will be producing only 25,000 MW of power. So, now tell me how you are going to produce a $5 trillion worth of goods of services at that time or in 2050 when the available power is only 25,000 MW. You guys are really ridiculous! And do not cite your very famous captive power factor which even our govt does not see it suitable to cite.

So, do not please talk about Japan when you talk about BD. Every country has a different history of economic development. Yet, all the developed countries have some similarities. But, I do not find our people have any affinity to the mindset of any developed country. So, I believe, our country will make a few pockets of development, but, basically, it will remain almost poor a country with far far less than $1 trillion GDP. Note, this is what the South Korean GDP is today.

This year Nominal GDP growth rate of BD is close to 17% then you deduct the inflation which gives you the real GDP growth rate. But the size of the economy comes from nominal GDP not from real GDP. That was my point.

The reason Japan came to my mind that it can be possible if we look back and see the growth pattern of Japan in the last century. The whole world changed a lot. In the time of globalization, it is far easier to develop a country than what Japan faced. The same story goes back to England as well. We need good leadership and the right policy. I dont think its impossible.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

You are proposing something next to impossible. India and Bangladesh cannot surmount US veto and go for Irani gas. This is why Turkmenistan gas supply is preferred by these countries. For BD, Iran and Turkmenistan both are far distant countries. Will BD be able to invest in any such long pipeline projects?

Moreover, India is already developing its newly found gas fields in the western BoB. Myammar-Bangladesh-India route could be a viable option if Myammar has enough reserves to sell to both India and BD. In fact, it is best for BD.



But, the way you are projecting a $5 triilion GDP for BD is quite embarassing for all of us. Please dream sweat alone when you are sleeping. It is useless to bash another country by publishing some stupid future figures that only satisfies your personal ego. It is not very healthy to continue discussion when it is aimless or when it is to bully others. I am talking about all your posts in the Pak FM visiting Bangladesh thread. Sorry for the hard talk, but please try to be objective as much as possible.

Listen bro whatever I said is not my own word. N this is not only for Bangladesh but many other countries has been projected and even much better projection then Bangladesh.

For example...

Philippines - 5.9 trillion usd economy despite with less gdp growth then Bangladesh of 7.3%

Egypt - 6 trillion usd economy with only 6.4% growth rate which will be bigger then Japan, France or Germany.

Sri Lanka - 1.3 trillion usd economy with moderate 6.6% gdp growth with only a fraction of Bangladesh population as according to you Bangladesh's economy will be slightly higher then 1 trillion usd.

Vietnam - 5 trillion usd economy with same gdp growth like Bangladesh.

Iraq - 2.2 trillion usd economy from present 140 billion usd with 7.7% growth rate.

Nigeria - 9.5 trillion usd economy with 8.5% gdp growth from present 400 billion usd which will be bigger then or almost same of germany+france.

Now Indonesia 14 trillion usd with 6.8% gdp growth which will be 4th/5th largest in the world.

N India 86 trillion usd ...with 8% gdp growth rate.

Even if Bangladesh reach 5 trillion usd the projected per capita gdp will be slightly less then half then that of India.

What do you think 7.5% is a very high ambitious yoy gdp projection???

So for say 6.5% BD will have economy of 3.3 trillion usd.

6% - 2.9 trillion usd

5% - 1.9 trillion usd

4% - 1.3 trillion

3.35% -1.03 trillion usd

Now choose 1 which is more suitable for Bangladesh....

Due to globalization now development will happen much faster.

Japan's economy will continue to shrink...and will be much lower then Indonesia by 2030.

Lastly all these economies has been projected based on GDP(PPP).

@Eastwatch from where you got the figure by 2047 electricity generation will be 25000 MW when already there are plans to upgrade electricity generation to 20000 MW by 2021???

As far as I know Japan's electricity generation is somewhat around 100K-110K MW not 250K MW that you have mentioned.

 

[eastwatch]

This year Nominal GDP growth rate of BD is close to 17% then you deduct the inflation which gives you the real GDP growth rate. But the size of the economy comes from nominal GDP not from real GDP. That was my point.

The reason Japan came to my mind that it can be possible if we look back and see the growth pattern of Japan in the last century. The whole world changed a lot. In the time of globalization, it is far easier to develop a country than what Japan faced. The same story goes back to England as well. We need good leadership and the right policy. I dont think its impossible.

Look, this is true for ALL the economics of the world that real GDP growth is calculated by deducting the rate of inflation from the nominal growth. So, it was not necessary for you to point out that 15%-17% thing to prove that BD can go up the ladder to a staggering $5 trillion GDP. Every one with the minimum knowledge of economics knows how to calculate the real GDP, and only real GDP counts.

Yes, it has become easier now to develop a country because of almost free trade. But, even with that freedom we have not been able to increase even our power production. Power is the basic component for further development. Yet, we lack it because the govt is holding this sector, and there is no protest from the people or from the political prties.

By the way, can we build all the machineries a power plant needs? Or of a cement factory, a steel mill, a jute mill, a paper mill or for any other types of production factories? So, which sectors you guys talk about when you talk of a big development for the country? Our people are undereducated and backward minded. This country will remain underdeveloped because of this.

Tell me how BD can develop without adequate production of power? It takes many other things to develop, but power is the single most important factor. By 2050 BD will not possibly produce more than 25,000 MW. So, the GDP will be confined to about $500 billion at best. Pakistan produces about 23,000 MW at present and its GDP is just over $200 billion. Now, tell us what other Aladin's Cherag BD has that will pump up its GDP to more than $500 billion?

When we discuss a national economy we better do not refer to INVESTMENT firms who are making love calls to the western hedge fund managers to invest in a rising economy and make a quick killing. We must talk pragmatic and think logically instead of being swayed away with the predictions of hedge fund managers.

I think, in South Asia only India is in a position to build up a strong economy in the future. India has already built up its primary industries, is building its secondary and tertiary industries one after another and it is fast developing its manufacturing base for industrial and consumer goods. Indian companies have recently sold double decker buses to BD. But, can Bangladesh yet manufacture a bolt in such a bus that conforms to ASTM of the USA?

 

[yyetttt]

Too bad coz Bangladesh won't get any oil... Pakistan will say no!!

 

[eastwatch]

Listen bro whatever I said is not my own word. N this is not only for Bangladesh but many other countries has been projected and even much better projection then Bangladesh.

For example...

Philippines - 5.9 trillion usd economy despite with less gdp growth then Bangladesh of 7.3%

Egypt - 6 trillion usd economy with only 6.4% growth rate which will be bigger then Japan, France or Germany.

Sri Lanka - 1.3 trillion usd economy with moderate 6.6% gdp growth with only a fraction of Bangladesh population as according to you Bangladesh's economy will be slightly higher then 1 trillion usd.

Vietnam - 5 trillion usd economy with same gdp growth like Bangladesh.

Iraq - 2.2 trillion usd economy from present 140 billion usd with 7.7% growth rate.

Nigeria - 9.5 trillion usd economy with 8.5% gdp growth from present 400 billion usd which will be bigger then or almost same of germany+france.

Now Indonesia 14 trillion usd with 6.8% gdp growth which will be 4th/5th largest in the world.

N India 86 trillion usd ...with 8% gdp growth rate.

Even if Bangladesh reach 5 trillion usd the projected per capita gdp will be slightly less then half then that of India.

What do you think 7.5% is a very high ambitious yoy gdp projection???

So for say 6.5% BD will have economy of 3.3 trillion usd.

6% - 2.9 trillion usd

5% - 1.9 trillion usd

4% - 1.3 trillion

3.35% -1.03 trillion usd

Now choose 1 which is more suitable for Bangladesh....

Due to globalization now development will happen much faster.

Japan's economy will continue to shrink...and will be much lower then Indonesia by 2030.

Lastly all these economies has been projected based on GDP(PPP).

@Eastwatch from where you got the figure by 2047 electricity generation will be 25000 MW when already there are plans to upgrade electricity generation to 20000 MW by 2021???

As far as I know Japan's electricity generation is somewhat around 100K-110K MW not 250K MW that you have mentioned.

Please do not give all these prediction data for all other countries. What many other countries can do may not be done by BD. Think pragmatically what BD can do by 2050. If you like you may answer to my post. But, do not send INVESTMENT companies' predictions to prove your point. Tell your points how BD will develop and what will be the ingredients?

Watch our track record for the last 40 years. Today, our power production is only 4000 MW. In order to take it to 25,000 MW by 2050 BD will have to build every year new power plants that will produce 1,000 MW. It means at least five or six new power plants every year. So, check the track record and do not please say about all those big govt PLANs that you are talking about. Can BD build those power plants every year?

But, GoB is planning 20,000 MW by 2021. It means it wants to build plants to add 2,000 MW every year. Not bad as a plan. But not possible in reality. It will remain only on paper. Do you want us to believe all the govt plans on their face values? If you believe in all those trash, well, it is your personal choice.

 

[Omar1984]

Too bad coz Bangladesh won't get any oil... Pakistan will say no!!

If Pakistan has allowed India a transit for the pipeline then it will allow Bangladesh also. India will most likely say no to Bangladesh.

india does not want Bangladesh to prosper.

Yes you are right. india does not want any of her neighbors to prosper.

 

[yyetttt]

Pakistan will be bigger economy than Bangladesh in 2050... Hope BD catches up

 

[Maira La]

Pakistan will be bigger economy than Bangladesh in 2050... Hope BD catches up

A backward minded nation like BD will eventually catch up, if Pakistan's situation does not turn around anytime soon. And it would be something to be ashamed of!

But, taking Pakistan's plight out of the equation, it's very unfair to compare Bangladesh with Pakistan for primarily two reasons:

- Pakistan possesses way more natural resources

- Pakistanis, genetically, are more ambitious and have better work ethics, both by a wide margin

If Pakistanis can completely eradicate the following two internal threats, I think Pakistan would quickly catch up with other civilizations:

- Islamists -- these people are beyond the control of the state; I wonder how many soldiers, police and civilians they have murdered so far; in fact, Islamists are the most potent weapon in the hands of your enemies.

- Dynastic Politics -- vote anyone other than Zardari. You guys have an opportunity to get rid of dynastic politics once and for all, unlike us.

 

[yyetttt]

^^^^

Islamists - In Pakistani politics, Islamists hardly hold a grip... Even their political partyies have been shunned down by other much more popular parties. We even have jokes for them like Maulana Diesel.

Zardari had 40% fake votes...


But I know with the way BD is growing it will catch up... Especially since BD has more agricultural land than us.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Please do not give all these prediction data for all other countries. What many other countries can do may not be done by BD. Think pragmatically what BD can do by 2050. If you like you may answer to my post. But, do not send INVESTMENT companies' predictions to prove your point. Tell your points how BD will develop and what will be the ingredients?

Watch our track record for the last 40 years. Today, our power production is only 4000 MW. In order to take it to 25,000 MW by 2050 BD will have to build every year new power plants that will produce 1,000 MW. It means at least five or six new power plants every year. So, check the track record and do not please say about all those big govt PLANs that you are talking about. Can BD build those power plants every year?

But, GoB is planning 20,000 MW by 2021. It means it wants to build plants to add 2,000 MW every year. Not bad as a plan. But not possible in reality. It will remain only on paper. Do you want us to believe all the govt plans on their face values? If you believe in all those trash, well, it is your personal choice.

Bro instead of going into details just one question. ... what is the average growth rate that bangladesh will achieve in the next 40 year. This will answer all the question. Or atleast in this decades.

Regarding manufacturing bangladesh will follow china model that means will manufacture others product for a decade or so likely uptown 2030. From there Bd will move ahead. Not to mention Bd is achieving more then 6% growth. It will add some more.

Regarding electricity Bd has capacity of 6000 mw. Around 5000-6000 mw is already under process including nuclear power. In the coming year coal power will play its role. N many other private company or country also thinking to build up power plants. They are china, qatar, malaysia, lg etc. Import from myanmar, nepal and bhutan is also in the card.

I know project implementation is the big problem in Bd. Project planning hold the point of biggest failure. Corruption also plays a role. This has been pointed out widely by world bank, imf, adb etc. This is bound to improve in the coming. You never know bnp, bal both may not remain in power in the future.

Not to mention oil and gas at the bob will play a big role in the gdp growth also. Countries like nigeria, egypt, sri lanka etc. If can have such high growth Bd can also achieve that.

 

[eastwatch]

Bro instead of going into details just one question. ... what is the average growth rate that bangladesh will achieve in the next 40 year. This will answer all the question. Or atleast in this decades.

Regarding manufacturing bangladesh will follow china model that means will manufacture others product for a decade or so likely uptown 2030. From there Bd will move ahead. Not to mention Bd is achieving more then 6% growth. It will add some more.

Regarding electricity Bd has capacity of 6000 mw. Around 5000-6000 mw is already under process including nuclear power. In the coming year coal power will play its role. N many other private company or country also thinking to build up power plants. They are china, qatar, malaysia, lg etc. Import from myanmar, nepal and bhutan is also in the card.

I know project implementation is the big problem in Bd. Project planning hold the point of biggest failure. Corruption also plays a role. This has been pointed out widely by world bank, imf, adb etc. This is bound to improve in the coming. You never know bnp, bal both may not remain in power in the future.

Not to mention oil and gas at the bob will play a big role in the gdp growth also. Countries like nigeria, egypt, sri lanka etc. If can have such high growth Bd can also achieve that.

You really are a stubborn person who sticks to his wrong ideas about national economic development. You have to understand the process of national development instead of randomly posting computer links. Because you just do not know about the process of development you are here asking us to believe about a future myth.

I have no answer for your question because I am not a semi God. Ask the GoB, IMF and WB the same question for this and next year. They will give you three different answers. What are you here to prove? Why are you beating about the bush and wasting your time on some hypothetical $5 trillion GDP that has so far been achieved only by the USA, Japan and now China?

Ask GoB to manufacture at least the needles that BD imports from China to feed all the sewing machines used in the garments sector. When it is done come and talk about $5 or $50 trillion. Otherwise, stop all these hollow talks. It is embarassing for all of us. We are a small country with a small $120 billion GDP. It will be a long run before we are even a $500 billion GDP. So, why someone should talk like a futuristic Prophet that BD economy will rise to a $5 trillion in certain and certain year?

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

If Pakistan has allowed India a transit for the pipeline then it will allow Bangladesh also. India will most likely say no to Bangladesh.



Yes you are right. india does not want any of her neighbors to prosper.

I am not sure why India will not support development of Bangladesh, when it is investing huge amounts in Bangladesh.

 

[yyetttt]

Captain_Planet is looking to the future... Great.

But it's nearly impossible to grow 8% for 50 years.