Developments and Turkish operations in Libya

[Bismarck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1269726304699588611

???

 

[925boy]

Hafter fled to the Russians and then to Egypt. However, none of them could save him. Whichever hole it came out, it will return there. There is no question of dividing Libya by 2. Because the Russians are afraid to show the flag directly. Their powers are not enough to flag the US and the British.

Ok let me make some comments about this conflict:

It seems TUrkey made the principled move of supporting the legitimate govt, the GNA, and Turkey has been willing to go to whatever necessary extent. I respect TUrkey's general action to support the legitimate govt. Please remember i used the keyword "principled".

Now in Turkey doing this principled thing by supporting a united Libya, 2 things stick out - 1) Is Turkey doing this support with any ulterior motive??? basically, how genuine is this help? will Turkey take Libya's oil in return? just asking. 2) This exposes Turkey to strategic,dangerous competition with Russia. IS TURKEY READY???? Turkey is getting into an interwoven proxy conflict with Russia in Syria and Libya....Turkey should make sure that Turkey does not become the "collateral" in the strategic competition between Russia and NATO.

You are a bit suspicious.

for sure. sometimes he says wild things. lol.

 

[Neptune]

Assuming that Intelligence had prior knowledge of Egyptian military preparations for Libya, this development explains the rush and massive amount of C-130 flights b/w Turkey and Libya over the last two weeks.

They will refrain from targeting Turkish forces, so they will focus on GNA. This means Turkish drones will be back in action, I mean UCAVs that are operated by Turkish military using TAF transponders which we witnessed during the early stages of our involvement to the conflict.

Funny thing with the tanks is that no matter how modern, top armor is a weak spot making them a target of opportunity for drones. So I doubt we will see Egyptian armor in action without CAP support, if so they must be really stupid which they are not. In this case, Egypt and Russia might have reached a secret deal which would explain "unmarked/unidentified" Mig-29s in the country. So either them or Egyptian Air Force will provide CAP to shoot down drones. Egyptian AF sure as hell won't dare to attack Turkish drones, they will carefully target GNA operated drone fleet.

The question is did the Russians deploy Mig-29s there to protect their presence there or they are deployed to shoot down Turkish drones to support, and in coordination with, a possible Egyptian ground maneuvers? With the US backing Egyptian peace initiative now, the latter option has a low likelihood but it never stopped Egypt to engage in close relations with Russia. And we all know from Idlib that Russians have no problem in targeting our forces via air which our government repeatedly disputes that they don't.

So the only way that can prevent this from ending up with a direct military confrontation with Egypt, UAE or Russia is to have a strictly enforced area denial policy (A2/AD) that demonstrates deterrence to use weapons if we have to.

Long story short, Turkish Naval Forces will have a far bigger role in Libya now and Air Force must now race wity the clock to finalize and declare initial operational capability for basing in Libya.

Most of the "red" and "blue" are empty deserts anyway.

I saw this one a while ago, not sure if its 100% correct. But I think people tend to overlook the demographics of Libya one and often when comparing LNA and GNA.

 

[merzifonlu]

???

In summary says that, while Turkey have many problems, but Greece have one and only problem: Turkey! Like Paok and Aris football teams.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Assuming that Intelligence had prior knowledge of Egyptian military preparations for Libya, this development explains the rush and massive amount of C-130 flights b/w Turkey and Libya over the last two weeks.

They will refrain from targeting Turkish forces, so they will focus on GNA. This means Turkish drones will be back in action, I mean UCAVs that are operated by Turkish military using TAF transponders which we witnessed during the early stages of our involvement to the conflict.

Funny thing with the tanks is that no matter how modern, top armor is a weak spot making them a target of opportunity for drones. So I doubt we will see Egyptian armor in action without CAP support, if so they must be really stupid which they are not. In this case, Egypt and Russia might have reached a secret deal which would explain "unmarked/unidentified" Mig-29s in the country. So either them or Egyptian Air Force will provide CAP to shoot down drones. Egyptian AF sure as hell won't dare to attack Turkish drones, they will carefully target GNA operated drone fleet.

The question is did the Russians deploy Mig-29s there to protect their presence there or they are deployed to shoot down Turkish drones to support, and in coordination with, a possible Egyptian ground maneuvers? With the US backing Egyptian peace initiative now, the latter option has a low likelihood but it never stopped Egypt to engage in close relations with Russia. And we all know from Idlib that Russians have no problem in targeting our forces via air which our government repeatedly disputes that they don't.

So the only way that can prevent this from ending up with a direct military confrontation with Egypt, UAE or Russia is to have a strictly enforced area denial policy (A2/AD) that demonstrates deterrence to use weapons if we have to.

Long story short, Turkish Naval Forces will have a far bigger role in Libya now and Air Force must now race wity the clock to finalize and declare initial operational capability for basing in Libya.



I saw this one a while ago, not sure if its 100% correct. But I think people tend to overlook the demographics of Libya one and often when comparing LNA and GNA.

View attachment 639473

Doubt it. I doubt there's enough farming in the red patch to support 2 million people. The food production must be in the south. Keep in mind it is the countryside that supports a city's food supply. Without the countryside, the city withers and dies. In Chinese revolution the rebels took the countryside and starved the cities to death.

 

[Neptune]

Doubt it. I doubt there's enough farming in the red patch to support 2 million people. The food production must be in the south. Keep in mind it is the countryside that supports a city's food supply. Without the countryside, the city withers and dies. In Chinese revolution the rebels took the countryside and starved the cities to death.

You do realize that it is a flat, desert country with almost no fresh water sources right? It has to be dependent on exports in its agricultural supply which can be navigated to GNA via various routes.

Libyan economy (CIA Factbook, 2017)
Agriculture: 1.3%
Industry: 52.3%
Services: 46.4%

Neighboring Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt all have a sector share of agriculture above 10% And I think it is simple geography for a desert coastline to have its most feasible land near a water source.

 

[Nein]

You do realize that it is a flat, desert country with almost no fresh water sources right? It has to be dependent on exports in its agricultural supply which can be navigated to GNA via various routes.

Libyan economy (CIA Factbook, 2017)
Agriculture: 1.3%
Industry: 52.3%
Services: 46.4%

Neighboring Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt all have a sector share of agriculture above 10% And I think it is simple geography for a desert coastline to have its most feasible land near a water source.

That explains why the ottomans did not bother pushing into the interior. It was not worth conquering unless oil or for guerilla warfare purposes.

 

[Saithan]

Just like Qatar has managed to increase their own agriculture due to the embargo. I believe smart investments will help increase the agriculture, but they need to make those investments with fanatical dedication.

Unfortunately during gaddafis time and after it has always been oil... Libya needs a true democratic government who will invest in that for the people.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/beating-blockade-qatar-prevailed-siege-200603132131301.html

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

As for the Egyptian defense equipment, they're such that Israil can destroy them within a couple of hours...

 

[bsruzm]

According to Africa Intelligence, Turkish paramilitary company Sadat, headed by former Turkish general Adnan Tanriverdi, has set up a partnership with Fawzi Boukatif-led Libyan company Security Side to train the forces fighting for Fayez Sarraj's Government of National Accord. The company has been trying for several months to win military training contracts in the wake of Turkey's intervention in the North African country.

 

[Bogeyman]

Booty captured by UMH forces between 2-6 June

 

[925boy]

As for the Egyptian defense equipment, they're such that Israil can destroy them within a couple of hours...

that wont happen, because Israel and Egypt currently have a "peace deal". Israel doesnt touch ARab countries that have active peace deals with Israel..at least not b4 notifying US before doing such.

 

[S.Y.A]

Long story short, Turkish Naval Forces will have a far bigger role in Libya now and Air Force must now race wity the clock to finalize and declare initial operational capability for basing in Libya.

^^^this. if turkey is willing to commit its forces properly, then naval and air support will be vital for a quick victory.

also, gna should push south as well, to capture the oil reserves down south, will open up revenue stream for the GNA.

Just hope that this isnt some half assed attempt, like in syria. or else all the hard earned gains will be lost.

 

[Saithan]

^^^this. if turkey is willing to commit its forces properly, then naval and air support will be vital for a quick victory.

also, gna should push south as well, to capture the oil reserves down south, will open up revenue stream for the GNA.

Just hope that this isnt some half assed attempt, like in syria. or else all the hard earned gains will be lost.

I’d say the coastline is more important once Sirte and oilfields are in GNA hands.

 

[S.Y.A]

I’d say the coastline is more important once Sirte and oilfields are in GNA hands.

sirte is on the coastline. oil reserves are down south.