Demography: China's Achilles heel

[ahfatzia]

Mark my word, by the year 2050 most of the primary and secondary sectors of the world economy will be done by automation with the helps of computers. Even the many operations in the tertiary sector will be highly automated by computers. There will be no need for a big workforce to support a large population. This trench started 3 decades ago and continues.

Many people will be out of jobs so the less people you have the better. Men and governments have to prepare this trench and adjust accordingly before it's too late.

 

[R0H1T]

A knowledge economy with, at best, 25% illiterates and not one university in the top 100. Incredible India!

Did you mean 25% literates or 25% highly educated /sarcasm ?

What does "not one university in the top 100" imply - certainly not the fact that IND currently employs more personnel in the services sector worldwide than any other nation(except their native citizens) or IND has more high/mid level executives in mgmt of MNC's than any other country is it ?

 

[manojb]

If china can force its people to have one kid they can force people to have 2,3,10 kids? And citizens shall oblige or pay fine! Never under estimate CCP.

 

[VCheng]

If china can force its people to have one kid they can force people to have 2,3,10 kids? And citizens shall oblige or pay fine!

That does not solve the problem of a bulge moving through the population pyramid caused by prior policies, and the effects thereof as mentioned in the article.

 

[Developereo]

That does not solve the problem of a bulge moving through the population pyramid caused by prior policies, and the effects thereof as mentioned in the article.

If the expected scenario doesn't materialize until 2050, that still gives them 40 years to fix the demographics. There may be bumps along the way, but any programs instituted today would bear fruit before 2050.

 

[R0H1T]

If the expected scenario doesn't materialize until 2050, that still gives them 40 years to fix the demographics. There may be bumps along the way, but any programs instituted today would bear fruit before 2050.

Demographics isn't a problem that can be solved by a magic wand or any other means for that matter !
Its institutionalized i.e. reflects the society so consider this most of the developed western world including US, Europe, Russia, Japan have very low fertility rates & pretty high life expectancy. What this means is that as countries like Russia, Japan age they don't have enough young people to support the aging middle class & retired pensioners also with the workforce available decreasing they have to import labor. Now the US has English as its main language which helps it alot with immigration besides having the most sophisticated hi-tech industry & research institutes in the world, CN has none of this & mandarin(like Japanese/Russian) is actually a barrier for most people looking to work over there. This is one of the main reasons they're emphasizing English education cause they know they can't do without it.
When you think about it rationally & not be a fanboy one should realize that they have more hurdles to cross in a shorter span of time than say our subcontinent !

 

[Developereo]

Demographics isn't a problem that can be solved by a magic wand or any other means for that matter

It's not easy, but the one-child policy can be reversed through baby bonuses. Many Western countries, including Australia, have such schemes. In Australia, at least, it has worked quite well. So much so that there is thought of doubling the bonus from 5k to 10k.

 

[R0H1T]

It's not easy, but the one-child policy can be reversed through baby bonuses. Many Western countries, including Australia, have such schemes. In Australia, at least, it has worked quite well. So much so that there is thought of doubling the bonus from 5k to 10k.

It can but for that the individuals & the nation must have enough resources to spare also the families cannot be forced into taking this decision especially as they get more liberal. It has to be remembered that they can only extend it to a couple of children(practically speaking) otherwise there will be a population explosion(like here) that'll pretty much reverse their objectives, so the moral of the story is that immigration is perhaps their best way out of this mess !

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Did you mean 25% literates or 25% highly educated /sarcasm ?

What does "not one university in the top 100" imply - certainly not the fact that IND currently employs more personnel in the services sector worldwide than any other nation(except their native citizens) or IND has more high/mid level executives in mgmt of MNC's than any other country is it ?

Your gov. claims that 75 % are literate, which means that 25 % are illiterate.

India has indeed more call-centre-agents than any other countries. How many of the Fortune 500 are headed by an Indian? How many of them are Indian companies? Is that the same myth like xx% of Nasa are Indians?

For a knowledge based economy, one has to have the educational institutions as well.

 

[DF-41 ICBM]

India has an even bigger problem.
OVERPOPULATION.

How do you solve a country that is overpopulated?
What about energy, food, water, space for housing and infrastructure, etc?

What will India do when it has 2 billion people?
That's a significant drain on the nations resources.

 

[Developereo]

It can but for that the individuals & the nation must have enough resources to spare also the families cannot be forced into taking this decision especially as they get more liberal. It has to be remembered that they can only extend it to a couple of children(practically speaking) otherwise there will be a population explosion(like here) that'll pretty much reverse their objectives, so the moral of the story is that immigration is perhaps their best way out of this mess !

The schema can be calibrated: first X kids and no more. A baby bonus scheme also provides an opportunity for the govt. to channel money directly to consumers and spur domestic economic activity. China has the money and the time for this scheme to work out.

Immigration provides a quick fix when you need the workforce right away. In this case, we are talking about a problem which is not projected to occur for some decades, so a baby scheme is viable.

 

[R0H1T]

Your gov. claims that 75 % are literate, which means that 25 % are illiterate.

India has indeed more call-centre-agents than any other countries. How many of the Fortune 500 are headed by an Indian? How many of them are Indian companies? Is that the same myth like xx% of Nasa are Indians?

For a knowledge based economy, one has to have the educational institutions as well.

Well your info seems pretty outdated ! Just so you know between Infy, Wipro, TCS, Tech Mahindra & HCL Tech(the top 5 domestic IT firms) they employ well over half a million highly skilled workers(certainly not call centers) now add IBM, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Accenture etc. & all the major IT firms around the world, most of them have their largest workforce outside of US in guess where ? You shouldn't try to poke around when there isn't much fun in false info that'll be repudiated by others !

India has an even bigger problem.
OVERPOPULATION.

How do you solve a country that is overpopulated?
What about energy, food, water, space for housing and infrastructure, etc?

What will India do when it has 2 billion people?
That's a significant drain on the nations resources.

That's the secret we export them
BTW that figure of 2 billion is called waayyy over exaggeration !

 

[pakje]

Well your info seems pretty outdated ! Just so you know between Infy, Wipro, TCS, Tech Mahindra & HCL Tech(the top 5 domestic IT firms) they employ well over half a million highly skilled workers(certainly not call centers) now add IBM, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Accenture etc. & all the major IT firms around the world, most of them have their largest workforce outside of US in guess where ? You shouldn't try to poke around when there isn't much fun in false info that'll be repudiated by others !

That's the secret we export them
BTW that figure of 2 billion is called waayyy over exaggeration !

Are you delusional or something? It's incredibly obvious that China is ahead of India on total knowledge.

 

[DF-41 ICBM]

Are you delusional or something? It's incredibly obvious that China is ahead of India on total knowledge.

Truth hurts.

105>85

 

[R0H1T]

Are you delusional or something? It's incredibly obvious that China is ahead of India on total knowledge.

Total knowledge what, its called reverse engineering kid haven't you been here around lately ? Get in line for the CN propaganda machine especially if you're unemployed, take SinoChallenger for a rolemodel !