Delhi’s tortoise limbers up to Beijing’s hare

[SarthakGanguly]

Any news about the Indian Manufacturing sector? Without that we can't overtake the Chinese rate of growth.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

These economists always miss the political factor, India under Congress and India under BJP are two different beasts, and the last tenure of Congress in particular was a disaster of the highest order.

Economists predict excellent things few years back based on the reforms taken up by the previous BJP government, and now predicting pessimistic figures based on the mismanagement shown by the previous Congress government.

In terms of GDP India today is in a bit better position than China was back in 2004, and 10 years down the line India can be where China is today, it's not at all impossible.

And about catching up, India certainly has more upward potential than China from here, and our democracy is maturing over the time, growth of literacy rates and mobile/internet/social media will play a significant role in future along with a free and strong mainstream media enabling people to make more informed political decision (the same can be a threat to China). There is no reason for us to be behind China apart from some political turmoils and bad politics, and we are improving fast in this sphere.

Modi is a miracle maker, right?

Check our growth rates in the past decade. In 2007 for example we had a real growth rate of 14.2%.

That's a far cry from India's current growth rates of 4-5%. Even Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc. are all growing a faster than that, and that's just in South Asia.

The 2000's were global boom years for everyone, it was entirely unnatural and resulted in the 2008 Credit crunch.

It's not going to happen again, demand is falling across the world, which is the main reason for the recent collapse in oil prices. Falling demand across the board, especially from Asia and Europe.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Modi is a miracle maker, right?

Check our growth rates in the past decade. In 2007 for example we had a real growth rate of 14.2%.

That's a far cry from India's current growth rates of 4-5%. Even Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc. are all growing a faster than that, and that's just in South Asia.

The 2000's were global boom years for everyone, it was entirely unnatural and resulted in the 2008 Credit crunch.

It's not going to happen again, demand is falling across the world, which is the main reason for the recent collapse in oil prices. Falling demand across the board, especially from Asia and Europe.

So what are your forecasts for India? What do you expect we will land 5 years from now?

 

[Bagha]

Modi is a miracle maker, right?

Modi at least knows ,what drives manufacturing sector. Infrastructure !
He did that with Gujarat.
I hope he does it with the whole country, but in most the cases the state governments do not co operate with central government. This is one of the negative point of our 'federal' democracy.
@Chinese-Dragon

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

So what are your forecasts for India? What do you expect we will land 5 years from now?

The IMF is optimistic when they say India will reach $5 trillion on 2025. They (and everyone else) thought India's growth rate would be going up, not down.

That said, Modi's policies do seem quite good. The recent cut in India's interest rates was a very good move, and the focus on domestic manufacturing is a strong policy for long-term growth.

Personally I think India may even beat the IMF predictions, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Echo_419]

So what are your forecasts for India? What do you expect we will land 5 years from now?

Doesn't matter what others think

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Modi at least knows ,what drives manufacturing sector. Infrastructure !
He did that with Gujarat.
I hope he does it with the whole country, but in most the cases the state governments do not co operate with central government. This is one of the negative point of our 'federal' democracy.
@Chinese-Dragon

He had one major advantage in Gujarat. Gujaratis.

Many Indians are downright anti business(with exceptions) - like Kashmiris, Malayalees, Bengalis etc.

 

[ito]

Any news about the Indian Manufacturing sector? Without that we can't overtake the Chinese rate of growth.

There was a news article on FT on this about a week ago

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6efcdbdc-97c7-11e4-84d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Oym2gqd9

Seem India doesn't want to repeat the Chinese example in Manufacturing sector. It is charting out its own way.

 

[Echo_419]

The IMF is optimistic when they say India will reach $5 trillion on 2025. They (and everyone else) thought India's growth rate would be going up, not down.

That said, Modi's policies do seem quite good. The recent cut in India's interest rates was a very good move, and the focus on domestic manufacturing is a strong policy for long-term growth.

Personally I think India may even beat the IMF predictions, but that's just my opinion.

The man knows what he is doing,give us some time & you will see results

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Doesn't matter what others think

Yeah, it does not impact out growth. But it should. Helps in instrospection. I am(or try to be) a very cold calculative SOB on these matters.

 

[terranMarine]

Overtake China in 30 years lol, keep on dreaming. India right now is what China was in 2005 and the current economic forecast looks gloomy, EU hasn't recovered from the financial crisis 2008. It affected China's growth rate because demand coming from EU dropped. India who performed very lousy in the past 5 years and DRAY expects to overtake China in these economic times? I thought Vietcongs were the most deluded here, guess some Indians want to join that department too.

 

[dray]

Modi is a miracle maker, right?

Check our growth rates in the past decade. In 2007 for example we had a real growth rate of 14.2%.

That's a far cry from India's current growth rates of 4-5%. Even Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc. are all growing a faster than that, and that's just in South Asia.

The 2000's were global boom years for everyone, it was entirely unnatural and resulted in the 2008 Credit crunch.

It's not going to happen again, demand is falling across the world, which is the main reason for the recent collapse in oil prices. Falling demand across the board, especially from Asia and Europe.

We don't need a miracle maker, just a 'good administrator who works' will do. And China's average in past decade was 10%, we have already discussed it in this thread only, don't troll. What was the gap between USA's GDP and China's GDP 30 years back?

 

[SarthakGanguly]

There was a news article on FT on this about a week ago

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6efcdbdc-97c7-11e4-84d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Oym2gqd9

Seem India doesn't want to repeat the Chinese example in Manufacturing sector. It is charting out its own way.

Yeah, true. But even without that - there are open opportunities that are being missed.

Let me put a simple case forward -
i. Road network in the North East is ridiculous.
ii. Indian companies are there that can do that.
iii. From cement to labor, from cranes to road building machines - all are manufactured by India.

Using these - the North East can be opened up dramatically. Same case in Odissa and Rajasthan - both are almost virgin. We can't expect to depend on a few coastal strips (like China) to drive our growth. For us, it must be overall, ours is a much smaller and by Nature's grace a very hospitable country.

 

[dray]

@DRAY, do you have any calculations to back up this statement?

And remember, you're not aiming for China's 2014 GDP, but our GDP in 30 years.

Yes, I do. You will get the clue if you focus on what I wrote so far in this thread.

 

[Bagha]

He had one major advantage in Gujarat. Gujaratis.

Many Indians are downright anti business(with exceptions) - like Kashmiris, Malayalees, Bengalis etc.

I feel sad with the condition of Bengal. It used to be 2 nd most industrialized state after Maharashtra. Not only industry it was one of the best in health and education. Now nothing is left. Thanks to left leaning politics,which is continued to this day.