Delhi’s tortoise limbers up to Beijing’s hare

[SrNair]

Oh lol
Some Chinese are trying too much for opposing the content in that article .And irony is that the article is written by some western journalist. AM I Right @Chinese-Dragon ?


@Luca1 since when did the Americans are too much care about economy of India and its comparison with China?

 

[Echo_419]

Show your calculations.

It would take that much just to get to China's 2014 level of nominal GDP, and by that time we'll be long gone. We add over $1 trillion every year now. That's EVERY year, so guess how much it will be after 30 more years.

Even today we are already adding an entire India every two years.

Catching up with China can be done & is not possible
But doing that takes a lot of Hard Work,Determination & a lot of stuff like that.Most unfortunately we lack this stuff & hence catching up with china is a dream at present

Then increase your growth rate now, not tomorrow. Not in five years, or ten years, but today.

The cut in Indian interest rates was a good move, I will say.

On it man everyday i hear Govt is implementing some new reform,cutting red tape,trying to get more investment in Infra etc.you will be able to see the affect in a few years

Oh lol
Some Chinese are trying too much for opposing the content in that article .And irony is that the article is written by some western journalist. AM I Right @Chinese-Dragon ?


@Luca1 since when did the Americans are too much care about economy of India and its comparison with China?

Please don't insult our American Friends by calling Luca a american every single damn member knows she is sure as hell not American

 

[dray]

Show your calculations.

It would take that much just to get to China's 2014 level of nominal GDP, and by that time we'll be long gone. We add over $1 trillion every year now. That's EVERY year, so guess how much it will be after 30 more years.

Even today we are already adding an entire India every two years.

I showed you calculations, examples, explanations, but you don't seem to learn. Care to tell me how India would take 30 years to reach USD 10 trillion?

Yes! Approx 11-12% per annum!

No, not that much is required.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I showed you calculations, examples, explanations, but you don't seem to learn. Care to tell me how India would take 30 years to reach USD 10 trillion?



No, not that much is required.

Learn to read.

DRAY is convinced in 30 yrs time from now India has surpassed China economically.

$10.4 trillion is only our 2014 GDP.

To surpass us in 30 years you'll need to surpass our GDP in 30 years.

And currently we are adding a whole India every two years.

 

[dray]

Learn to read.



$10.4 trillion is only our 2014 GDP.

To surpass us in 30 years you'll need to surpass our GDP in 30 years.

And currently we are adding a whole India every two years.

Evidently my comprehension skills seem to be superior than yours.

This is what you wrote: "It would take that much just to get to China's 2014 level of nominal GDP", that is at 11%-12% growth rate for 30 years! Some economist you are.

I told you repeatedly that you cannot use just basic math of compounding growth to calculate gdp growth, there are multiple factors to consider.

Now, two rough examples for you and your compatriot who reluctantly didn't quote me:

1. During 2004-2014 China's nominal GDP has grown by 5 times with an average annual growth rate of 10%.

2. During 2000-2010 India's nominal GDP has grown by 4 times with an average annual growth rate of 7.22%.

Now ponder over it and be surprised.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Evidently my comprehension skills seem to be superior than yours.

This is what you wrote: "It would take that much just to get to China's 2014 level of nominal GDP", that is at 11%-12% growth rate for 30 years! Some economist you are.

Reading comprehension fail yet again.

@Chinese-Dragon
DRAY is convinced in 30 yrs time from now India has surpassed China economically. Well i don't know how big China's base economy will be in 3 decades but how many % will India have to grow in order to overtake China if China adds $1 trillion each year? Will you do the honor and calculate it for us?

He said overtake China, not overtake China's GDP in 2014. Unless you assume that we won't grow at all for the next 30 years.

I told you repeatedly that you cannot use just basic math of compounding growth to calculate gdp growth, there are multiple factors to consider.

Now, two rough examples for you and your compatriot who reluctantly didn't quote me:

1. During 2004-2014 China's nominal GDP has grown by 5 times with an average annual growth rate of 10%.

2. During 2000-2010 India's nominal GDP has grown by 4 times with an average annual growth rate of 7.22%.

Now ponder over it and be surprised.

Tell that to the IMF, who are notoriously over-optimistic about India's growth rate (to be fair everyone was over-optimistic about India's post-2012 growth rate, India disappointed them all).

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They calculate that by 2025, India's economy will only be around $5 trillion.

So after 10 years, you won't even reach half of our 2014 level. And that's the most optimistic scenario.

 

[ito]

What a waste of time these so called experts do when they compare India to China. Instead they could pinpoint the problems in Indian economy or advise on things India can do to improve its economy.

India should care of lifting its people out of poverty than giving credence to these comparisons. If India exceeds Chinese growth, it is great. But this shouldn't be the Indian political establishment's objective.

Oh lol
Some Chinese are trying too much for opposing the content in that article .And irony is that the article is written by some western journalist. AM I Right @Chinese-Dragon ?


@Luca1 since when did the Americans are too much care about economy of India and its comparison with China?

We came to expect some senseless comment from @Luca1 , whenever the name 'India' comes anywhere in PDF

 

[dray]

Reading comprehension fail yet again.



He said overtake China, not overtake China's GDP in 2014. Unless you assume that we will grow at 0% from 2014 onwards.



Tell that to the IMF, who are notoriously over-optimistic about India's growth rate (to be fair everyone was over-optimistic about India's post-2012 growth rate, India disappointed them all).

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They calculate that by 2025, India's economy will only be around $5 trillion.

So after 10 years, you won't even reach half of our 2014 level. And that's the most optimistic scenario.

[/QUOTE]

I have been to that thread and explained it over there. I think you should focus on the two examples that I have given you.

China is ahead of India for now, but the gap is far narrower than you can imagine. A good decade for us and a bad decade for you can do the trick. There are several political and social factors that will also go in favour of India, and may be unfavourable for China at the same time (which is a different topic). We are right there, and 3 to 5 decades that I always say is a cautious estimate considering all the possible downsides for India (mostly wasted years due to probable weak governments in future).

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I have been to that thread and explained it over there. I think you should focus on the two examples that I have given you.

China is ahead of India for now, but the gap is far narrower than you can imagine. A good decade for us and a bad decade for you can do the trick. There are several political and social factors that will also go in favour of India, and may be unfavourable for China at the same time (which is a different topic). We are right there, and 3 to 5 decades that I always say is a cautious estimate considering all the possible downsides for India (mostly wasted years due to probable weak governments in future).

In hindsight, pretty much everyone believed that India's growth rates would go up, to around 8% average or even 10% average.

And even by those estimates, the IMF still predicts that India by 2025 will be a $5 trillion economy.

But what ACTUALLY happened to India's growth rate? Instead of going up, it actually went down. To the current level of around 5%, which is lower than the developing world average, and unimpressive by any account.

The World Bank thought India would surpass China's "percentage" growth rates by 2011. But you always end up disappointing the predictions. In hindsight, everyone was incredibly over-optimistic about India's growth rate trend. India's growth rate didn't go up to double-digits, it fell to around 5% instead.

 

[terranMarine]

@Chinese-Dragon
Int’l function hails Vietnam role in India’s ‘Look East’ policy | Page 2

"In 30 years we will be at least at per with China, and might even be ahead of China, considering that China is at the brink of a massive hard landing."

Now lets say if China keeps adding $1 trillion per year, we should at least have $40 trillion GDP in 30 years time
For India to surpass China, she has to gain at least $38 trillion in 30 years time span. Of course Dray is expecting China to have a crash landing. Lets see who is right

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Chinese-Dragon
Int’l function hails Vietnam role in India’s ‘Look East’ policy | Page 2

"In 30 years we will be at least at per with China, and might even be ahead of China, considering that China is at the brink of a massive hard landing."

Now lets say if China keeps adding $1 trillion per year, we should at least have $40 trillion GDP in 30 years time
For India to surpass China, she has to gain at least $38 trillion in 30 years time span. Of course Dray is expecting China to have a crash landing. Lets see who is right

@DRAY, do you have any calculations to back up this statement?

And remember, you're not aiming for China's 2014 GDP, but our GDP in 30 years.

 

[Steakhouse]

India economy prediction fall way short from the reality in the last 5 yrs, revise the new prediction for future India economy probably no miracle but same with the old news fallen short of reality 2 yrs from now.

 

[Bagha]

India should shun the socialist attitude. We should target at growing our pie instead of dividing a shrinking one. I think once the economy is in place everything else would come to its place. Until that everything else is useless.

What should we focus at ? Making more money !

Another suggestion: We should ban all the unions that are affiliated to political parties. It will remove a lot of bottlenecks.
What do you guys think?
@sreekumar @DRAY @Echo_419

 

[vayuu1]

Catching up with China can be done & is not possible
But doing that takes a lot of Hard Work,Determination & a lot of stuff like that.Most unfortunately we lack this stuff & hence catching up with china is a dream at present



On it man everyday i hear Govt is implementing some new reform,cutting red tape,trying to get more investment in Infra etc.you will be able to see the affect in a few years



Please don't insult our American Friends by calling Luca a american every single damn member knows she is sure as hell not American

My doubt is she really isn't she as well, just a pretender.

 

[dray]

In hindsight, pretty much everyone believed that India's growth rates would go up, to around 8% average or even 10% average.

And even by those estimates, the IMF still predicts that India by 2025 will be a $5 trillion economy.

But what ACTUALLY happened to India's growth rate? Instead of going up, it actually went down. To the current level of around 5%, which is lower than the developing world average, and unimpressive by any account.

The World Bank thought India would surpass China's "percentage" growth rates by 2011. But you always end up disappointing the predictions. In hindsight, everyone was incredibly over-optimistic about India's growth rate trend. India's growth rate didn't go up to double-digits, it fell to around 5% instead.

These economists always miss the political factor, India under Congress and India under BJP are two different beasts, and the last tenure of Congress in particular was a disaster of the highest order.

Economists predict excellent things few years back based on the reforms taken up by the previous BJP government, and now predicting pessimistic figures based on the mismanagement shown by the previous Congress government.

In terms of GDP India today is in a bit better position than China was back in 2004, and 10 years down the line India can be where China is today, it's not at all impossible.

And about catching up, India certainly has more upward potential than China from here, and our democracy is maturing over the time, growth of literacy rates and mobile/internet/social media will play a significant role in future along with a free and strong mainstream media enabling people to make more informed political decision (the same can be a threat to China). There is no reason for us to be behind China apart from some political turmoils and bad politics, and we are improving fast in this sphere.