FuturePAF
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Don't compare China to Germany in the early 20th century, they are two very different countries that only the Western establishment like to frame China to look for a scapegoat and enemy in today's world. Germany was very aggressive and bent on world domination and conquest, none of that is true of China.
It’s not so much a comparison of Germany to China, but how Britain tried to contain a growing continental power with ambitions in Global trade, and the parallels it has with the current US attempts of containing China.
A classic Thucydides Trap.
Up until just a month before WW1, both nations and both navies were very friendly with each other, but had been building up their respective navies.
No one says China is a new Germany. Actually it’s very much the opposite. China really doesn’t have territorial ambitions beyond its borders, but has economic ambitions.
Many hawks need to make someone a scapegoat to get money from the defense budget.
Studying the process of containment from past examples may give insight in how best to maintain healthy competition without miscalculation by either side.
Investment in health care and extending the working years of the population could see growth continue. In the US people are offered to delay retirement by a few years and promised higher pension or social security payments, if I understand the offer correctly. China could do something similar and seek to have people delay retirement by an average 3-5 years, as many countries are trying to do.The slow down in China economy is natural. Having GDP growth rate at 4- 4.5% for economy as big as China is quite decent. Moreover, China population growth is also going to negative territory, so China doesnt have much pressure as like India to grow their economy as fast as it can.
India before boasted they can grow at 8 percent every year, but in reality they only can reach 6.1 percent, only 1 % different from Indonesia's growth rate in Q1 2023
Xi will compensate of what is lacking in China previous economic development. Toxic rivers, polluted air etc. He wants to show that businesses is not the king and must abide with regulation.
Xi will make China economic development more green, suistanable, and more balance.
Investing into cleaning up the industrialization damage will also improve health outcomes as well as create environment restoration companies that can do this kind of work abroad, even retrofitting industrial plants around the world.
Also while many young people have limited job prospects, if the government creates a compensation system that incentivizes more people to marry and raise 2-3 children while both parents work part time, it could allow China to fix its demographics in time by 2049; 26 full years from now. Enough time to raise the next generation and give them a full university education.
Finally, improvements in education could also raise productivity, creating the enviro ent for more creative innovators to develop new products as China invest a higher percentage of GDP into R&D.
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