The elements of a rural-based class struggle seem present and much of the proselytizing rhetoric we've read of in Buner carries this same tinge. What's missing is a unifying platform across these disparate groups.
Dr. Abbas refers to the Egyptians and Arabs as the "chemists". Alchemy would seem more accurate but they clearly are looked to as the political theologians and moral compass of the movement. How that may be transformed into a mechanism for the salafi/deobandi governance of Pakistan is unclear as hell.
I'm uncertain, and I suspect most are also, as to how dramatically the Punjab may become radicalized. What's it's vulnerability, where, and why?
These punjabi militant organizations are semi-autonomous. That's tactically advantageous but these groups certainly suffer from any unified objectives with each other much less the TTP other than some commonality of religion?
"...the area from DI Kkan through to DG Khan, Bahawalpur is the area where this phenomenon is currently taking hold."
fatman17, can you describe how this "phenomenon" appears on the ground? Symptoms of it's presence in a community? I know where D.I. Khan is located. Are you extending due east to Lahore over the Indus river?
here is my understanding of it.....
S-2,
Without reading your link, this is what I have to report on the phenomenon of Thalibanisation of southern Punjab!
Not so! In fact far from it.
The reports of Taliban/militants distributing leaflets warning the local population of dire consequences if they dont toe the Taliban line is actually the work of criminals who are using this guise to create fear amongst the local population. This area of DG Khan has a very poor law & order situation (just like most of Pakistan) and the Police is either over-stretched or on duty to protect the feudal lords of the area.
There are also reports of the madrassas or schools having links with the Taliban/militants. Out of a total of 500 schools, about 45 are suspected of these links. In fact the reality is that these 45 suspected madrassas offer sanctuary to Taliban/militants who for various reasons flee the FATA to these safe havens. (This has got to be stopped). This is the limit of their link. These madrassas/schools do not teach militant Islam to their students is not allowed to be recruited by the Taliban/militants.
The recent spate of suicide bombings in these areas are unfortunately sunni-shia religious war and not the work of Taliban/militants. Of the 22 suicide bombings which have taken place in the Punjab, 20 suicide bombers were from the FATA, 1 from Kashmir and only 1 from southern Punjab.
Personally I travel a lot in this area, working for my NGO and visit most of the small towns and cities of this area. There are no clear-cut signs of Taliban influence amongst the people. The video/music shops are playing their music, the barber shops are doing a roaring business, there is no moral police to be seen (typical Taliban traits these).
The people of DG Khan/DI Khan/Bahawalpur which makes up the southern belt of Punjab are poor, landless, illiterate but hardworking and resilient. They dont have any militant traits or ambitions. Having said this, southern Punjab is still controlled by the feudal/political elite who own most of the land, and force these people to work on their farms. These people dont even know what human rights means /or what they are.
Under these conditions, they are susceptible to Talibanisation if the govt. does not do its job of providing protection from the criminals, providing basic services like education, health and jobs.
What the govt. needs to do immediately is to improve the effectiveness of the police. Improve their intelligence gathering. The CID is not what it used to be in the past. Corruption and lethargy have stepped-in. the govt. has plans to form a ATF (anti-terrorist force) and upgrade the Elite units of the police, but due to lack of funds, these remain just what they are
.plans.
In summary ignore the area and suffer the consequences.