Death Wish

[muse]

The death wish of the Pakistani political class



Islamabad diary

Friday, September 04, 2009
Ayaz Amir

Army General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, is not the enemy — or, let us say, the main enemy — of Pakistani democracy. The Pakistani political class is its own worst enemy. Its incompetence, its inability to learn anything from the past and its unconquerable zest for intrigue are some of the factors paving the way for military takeovers. And, if the present political landscape is any guide, the political class is simply unable to overcome past habits and step into the future by creating a new political culture.

Military ambition of course is also a factor. So powerful is the position of army chief in Pakistan that anyone occupying it can be forgiven for being afflicted with the saviour syndrome which has been the bane of our history: the feeling, often encouraged by self-seeking journalists and politicians, that he has heaven’s mandate to save the nation. Four attempts at saving the nation, from Ayub to Musharraf, have been our greatest disasters.

But, let us be clear on this point, military ambition alone is not the prime culprit. Politicians are the guinea pigs. Politicians are the testers who prepare the ground for the real action, stamping at the bit in GHQ.

But Pakistan’s political ponies never seem to learn. Through unchecked folly — folly unmitigated by any reference to the past — they go about heating up the political atmosphere. When democracy’s funeral is finally taken out on the shoulders of GHQ, even as a fresh stallion is ensconced in the stables of power, democracy’s professed votaries begin a long period of mourning which doesn’t end until the next fitful rendezvous with democracy. Which in turn leads to fresh intrigues, and so the cycle goes on.

The transition from Musharraf to the Feb 2008 elections wasn’t easy. The lawyers’ movement weakened Musharraf but it was not the lawyers’ movement which got Musharraf to take off his uniform. That was accomplished by outside pressure and murmurings of discontent within the army high command. And it was outside mediation which paved the way for Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan, an event which further undermined Musharraf’s grip on power.

One thing led to another. Benazir Bhutto’s return opened the way for Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan. The same Musharraf who had so easily thwarted Nawaz Sharif’s comeback on Sep 10, 2007, was helpless when the Saudis, after Benazir Bhutto’s return, insisted that there was no reason left to hold back Nawaz Sharif.

Musharraf’s days were numbered as the very fates began to conspire against him. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination was the last nail in his political coffin. The tide of public anger let loose by that tragedy was so strong that there was no way Musharraf’s anointed party, the Q League, could hold its own in the subsequent elections. Who was behind Benazir Bhutto’s death? We don’t know and, as with other tragedies of this kind in our history, perhaps never will know. But in the inchoate way in which the public mind works and arrives at its conclusions, people at large held Musharraf responsible for her death and made him pay for it when the opportunity arose on Feb 18, 2008.

But we seem to be a nation of ingrates. Or perhaps it is our political class suffering from this malady because it seems to be satisfied with nothing. It pined under Musharraf’s dictatorship but far from being happy with the return of democracy, it is busy nurturing fresh sources of discontent.

Pakistan’s real problems are real enough — from the state of the economy to the state of governance — but the political class, not content with these challenges, has honed an extraordinary talent for manufacturing spurious problems.

There is nothing real or meaningful about the storm caused by the media outbursts of a spent cartridge like Brig (r) Imtiaz Ahmed. How he has emerged at this juncture from the woodwork of things long lost and forgotten is not easy to say. But on the principle that once a spook always a spook, it is not past conjecturing that his resurrection is the work of the same elements who have been muddying the national waters by their talk of a minus-one formula and the like.

The sudden refocus on Air Marshal Asghar Khan’s petition pending in the Supreme Court for the last 14 years regarding the money doled out by the ISI to a list of anti-PPP politicians in 1990, is another attempt to wake up dead horses and use them as part of the campaign against the present democratic order.

The first target of this campaign is President Asif Zardari. The secondary target is Nawaz Sharif. The ISI list is meant to defame him. But the real target — as it takes not much genius to infer — is democracy itself. Elements thriving under authoritarianism, and therefore beholden to it, find the whole idea of democracy irksome and distasteful. That is why, as we have seen since 1988, no sooner is a democratic government in place — and it doesn’t matter whether it is the PPP in power or the PML-N — a whispering campaign starts against it.

For the army and intelligence agencies to conspire against democracy is easy to understand, their aim being to reclaim lost glory. Somewhat harder to fathom is why democratic elements choose to become willing players in the games whose aim is to run down politicians and discredit democracy. Why are they so ready to stand in the lists as their own worst enemies?

If all it takes to muddy the waters is the ranting of a Brig Imtiaz, or renewed talk of the ISI’s shenanigans way back in 1990, then not much can be said of the maturity or good sense of the political class of 2009. And if all it takes to upset the political applecart are a few verbal broadsides, then questions are bound to arise as to how secure and stable the present democratic order is.

And this has happened in the space of just the last fortnight, beginning with the quite needless scrap that we saw between the PML-N and the MQM in the National Assembly — a display of anger and vitriol on both sides that was wholly uncalled for — followed by the unleashing, from some hidden corner, of Brig Imtiaz about whose existence or non-existence most people would have been unaware of until all this happened.

Brig Imtiaz’s TV appearances — after years of deserved oblivion he is relishing the spotlight — and the renewed focus on the ISI’s 1990 payments have completely distracted attention from other things. Musharraf’s trial under Article 6 of the constitution and the question of repealing the 17th Amendment have receded into the background. If there is a department of dirty tricks behind the spectacle the nation is being treated to, its leading lights would be laughing up their sleeves, because the extent of the distraction must surpass all expectations.

This is not to deny that Pakistani democracy is facing a threat. But it comes not so much from GHQ or the mysterious underworld of the ISI and Military Intelligence as from (1) a spirited band of senior journalists and columnists, among whom I count some dear friends, who are doing all in their considerable power to spread uncertainty and confusion; and (2) trigger-happy politicians, from either side of the divide, congenitally unable to resist the temptation of shooting from their hips, especially when there is no earthly reason to indulge this passion.

Is this a perfect democracy? Only a fool will say it is. Are angels dressed up as politicians? Question scornfully dismissed. But this much should be plain: whatever we have, with all its glaring shortcomings and imperfections, is a vast improvement on the discontent the nation suffered during the Musharraf years.

So is it too much to ask the media cowboys and the trigger-happy political sages to kindly take it easy? We have enough real problems to deal with and can do without having to wrestle with invented ones.

But if, in a continued rebellion against common sense, the political leadership and media pundits insist on charging at windmills, they should not be surprised if they are hoisted aloft on the arms of those same windmills.

Email: winlust@yahoo.com

 

[Developereo]

It's easy to blame the army or ISI or journalists, but the real reason democracy fails in Pakistan is because the politicians don't deliver.

The electricity situation hasn't improved.
The water rationing hasn't improved.
The education system hasn't improved.
The law and order situation hasn't improved.
The tax collection system hasn't improved.
The Balochistan situation hasn't improved.

What on earth has the government been doing all these months?
Mr. 10% has been busy clocking up frequent-flyer miles. And Nawaz Sharif is biding his time, waiting for his turn at the public trough.

 

[Fracker]

What else one can expect from Anghota Chaap politicians ..

Politics is now business for everyone, they joined politics to earn, and rule.. so after they invest some money in election for compaigns, for buy votes, etc so in the end when they win, they expect the return... 1000s times more then what they invested, and they know they have only 2-3 years to gather it. And result is more weak institutions, and corruption prevail.. and this corrupt politician has now put enough mess, that no one can clean it.. I still don't know why this PROFESSION is so acceptable to whole country men?

 

[TruthSeeker]

One rarely goes wrong, when analyzing politicians and their deeds, if one imagines, first and foremost, what is in their personal interest? They will always be found to be feathering their nests, unless the system can be contrived to check them. This is very difficult, witness the variety of systems (US, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Israel, etc.) and how they succeed in varying degrees to check politician selfishness. There is no easy answer. Perhaps, the more evenly real power can be distributed into many hands, the better. On the other hand, doing this can produce gridlock when it comes to addressing real problems.

 

[Bane Blade]

One rarely goes wrong, when analyzing politicians and their deeds, if one imagines, first and foremost, what is in their personal interest? They will always be found to be feathering their nests, unless the system can be contrived to check them. This is very difficult, witness the variety of systems (US, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Israel, etc.) and how they succeed in varying degrees to check politician selfishness. There is no easy answer. Perhaps, the more evenly real power can be distributed into many hands, the better. On the other hand, doing this can produce gridlock when it comes to addressing real problems.

I believe that if people continue this system I am sure with time it will fix itself. Britain has seen many dark days just as much as any other countries but with more education things started getting better.

 

[Rafael]

I believe that if people continue this system I am sure with time it will fix itself. Britain has seen many dark days just as much as any other countries but with more education things started getting better.

True, but somehow I feel that we just cant afford to let the system get mature and consume another 15-20 years.

Its now or never for us!

 

[dabong1]

The army has led the country for longer then the civilians so please stop blaming the civilian govt and put the blame on the military govt that have got us here......give the civilian govt the same amount of time as given to mushy and then judge.

 

[Bane Blade]

True, but somehow I feel that we just cant afford to let the system get mature and consume another 15-20 years.

Its now or never for us!

Funny how you say it is now or never for us as if we may be shot at any second. We do need to spend the time because even if you leave a perfect system in super speed you can't get a voter mind set made that quickly.

 

[muse]

WB estimates Rs 400bn addl revenue

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank (WB) Tax Policy Report-2009 has estimated that the bank’s proposals for tax policy reforms in Pakistan would generate an additional revenue of Rs 400 billion. The report, jointly prepared by the WB, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University, said structural tax policy reforms outlined in the report could produce substantial revenue increases. The report said the proposed reforms could raise tax revenues equal to 3.8 percent of the GDP. The major revenue increase would come through the General Sales Tax (GST) reform. The adoption of a broad-based GST on goods and services in agreement between federal and provincial governments is the main focus of the tax policy reform. sajid chaudhry


WB says each Pakistani evaded Rs 4,800 tax in FY07-08

* Pakistan Tax Policy Report 2009 says tax revenue in 07-08 stood at only 10.3 percent of GDP

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has said that every Pakistani citizen evaded tax amount worth Rs 4800 in the year 2007-08, while the total tax evaded in the period stood at Rs 796 billion.

This was revealed by the World Bank’s (WB) Pakistan Tax Policy Report 2009 — Tapping Tax Base for Development released on Saturday.

The report has been jointly prepared by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and the Andrew Young School of Public Policy, Georgia State University.

The report said a large tax gap in the country suggested that the tax system was likely to under perform in terms of revenue, efficiency, equity and administration.

Tax refunds: The federal tax gap in Pakistan for 2007-2008 estimated in the report is around 79 percent of the actual tax receipts.

In 2007-08, total tax revenue collection stood at Rs 1.1 trillion or 10.3 percent of the GDP.

It said there is a broader consensus that the country’s tax system under performed as it had a narrow base, with taxes being levied on a limited number of sectors, businesses and individuals. The WB report also said it feared that when the fiscal pressure began to ease, tax reform pushback would be in full swing. “Even modest reform proposals to curb tax exemptions and tax evasion will come under fire and the government will be subject to pressure to back down and return to business as usual,” it said.

Such meagre revenue would leave the government with little options to cover its targeted expenditure, with the result that the government would invoke unsustainable budget deficits or major cuts in spending, which in turn would make it impossible to maintain social and infrastructure sector-spending at the level required for development, the report added. The tax policy report said structural tax policy reforms outlined could produce substantial revenue increases for the government.

 

[Developereo]

The major revenue increase would come through the General Sales Tax (GST) reform. The adoption of a broad-based GST on goods and services in agreement between federal and provincial governments is the main focus of the tax policy reform

I would be opposed to a broad-based GST. It targets mainly poor people, because they spend a disproportionate percent of their earnings on basic necessities.

Instead we should focus on income taxes:
Economy of Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Unfortunately for Pakistan, the level of tax evasion is very high amongst the population and there are apparently no laws against tax evasion or punishments against tax evaders. Out of a total population of 170 million people, fewer than 1.7 million pay taxes. This means only 1% of the total population pay taxes. To make matters worse, since Pakistan first gained independence in 1947, not a single person has ever been sent to prison for tax evasion. As a result of this chronic low tax collection, Pakistan is still a third world country which heavily relies on foreign aid. This has also seriously hampered Pakistan's economic development. Corruption within the authorities combined with illiteracy and ignorance among the population has not made things any better. Any attempts into solving this problem is almost impossible because it is believed that roughly 70% of Pakistan's population are living off the grid

Also,
Tax holiday for feudal lords | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online

The current share of agriculture in GDP stands at 20.9 percent but its share in taxes is only 1.2 percent. Compared to it the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP is 18.9 percent while its contribution to taxes is 50.8 percent

 

[muse]

The lament of a modern Pakistan



In the national interest

Monday, September 07, 2009
Kamal Siddiqi

The writer is editor reporting, The News

As a Pakistani, one can only wonder why we almost always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We have so far never won a military conflict. When we do achieve something, we deny ourselves the pleasure of basking in it. Take, for example, Pakistan’s only Nobel Prize. We don’t talk much about this because it was won by an Ahmedi.

We continue to deny ourselves our heroes and instead make idols out of others. We also oversimplify. If the present government is bad, then Pakistan is bad. As a child living abroad, when one went to the house of most Indian families, a picture of Mahatma Gandhi would be hanging on one wall. No such picture of Mr Jinnah, Iqbal or any national hero is in the houses of any Pakistani. What is missing, one feels, is national pride.

Over the years, we have evolved into a strange animal. Pakistanis have become more narrow-minded, intolerant and frustrated. Once considered a rising star in Asia and a central force in the Muslim world, we are at bottom rung in both arenas.

Compare the quality of life enjoyed by the people in the region. Barring Afghanistan, which continues to be in conflict, all others have done well. Neighbours India and China are economic superpowers. We used to make fun of the standard of living of the Indians. Now they should make fun of us. The Gulf countries have worked sensibly to make the most of the oil revenues, turning their sleepy states into bustling and happening places.

In almost all Muslim countries, one can see a marked improvement.

Thanks to good education and sensible governance, these countries - from Southeast Asia to North Africa, are doing well economically and making strides in terms of socio-economic indicators.

Ignorance is our own biggest enemy. We see conspiracies in everything.

But when the biggest conspiracy was playing itself out in the Eastern part of our country, we remained oblivious. Similarly, when General Zia-ul Haq was playing havoc with our country and its future, those who seemed to thrive on conspiracies remained silent. We need to reclaim our country. Let us identify the core issues: these are democracy (or the lack of it), governance, education, social indicators, population, terrorism and extremism.

It is strange that whenever a military dictatorship comes to power, some hail it. But when a democratic government is sworn in, many express doubts. After President Zardari took oath, the country would be bankrupt “within months”, said some. A scare was created. People withdrew money from accounts and valuables from bank lockers.

Prime Minister Gilani’s government, with all its faults, must be allowed to complete its term. We must not let vested interests try and sabotage an elected government as they have done in the past. Make no mistake - the wheels have been set in motion. Possibly because other political players have not played ball, the parliament is intact.

As a nation we must believe in democracy. We should discourage ignorant people from saying that Pakistan is a nation that only listens to the “danda”. We have experimented with all forms of government – sticks, stones and prayer mats — except possibly with democracy. Hardly any elected government was able to complete its term in power. And we should question those who talk about Islamic revolutions, military takeovers and governments of national unity.

Governance also remains our problem. It is not enough for Mr Gilani to reshuffle the bureaucracy – it must be re-engineered. Merit should be the only criteria. The process to train officers must be forward-looking. Corruption can only go if we have good policies in place and good people to implement them. Errant bureaucrats must be punished while those who are able to deliver should be rewarded.

Governance also means keeping the national interest at the forefront.

We cannot afford to bend to the whims and interests of various quarters. The government has absolved itself of various functions and now these are provided by different groups - at a cost. There are transport, water, land, drug and other mafias. There are sugar, cement, steel and many other cartels.

Education and social indicators are neglected. It is not just a matter of increasing funds but complete reform. People in Pakistan have a right to affordable and quality education, health care, housing and transport. The Zardari government should involve various stakeholders and friendly countries to rebuild these sectors. We need expertise and experience from wherever it is available in this.

We also need to review what we are offering at present. What are the messages that are coming out of our textbooks and influencing our young minds? Does our healthcare system really cure people or ends up making them more ill?

For some reason, possibly because of our supposedly bigger problems, we have ignored the biggest time bomb of all - population. We are producing millions every year. Most of these will end up illiterate and angry. Dr Mobashir Malik, a UN expert on population issues, says that while the goverment is aware of the problem, “we are yet to see “implementable action”. And yet this single issue will make or break our country in the years to come.

Terrorism and extremism are also two areas on which we need to do much more. Whether we like it or not, Pakistan is seen as the epicentre of terrorism by the rest of the world. Every Pakistani is a potential terrorist when abroad, unless proven otherwise. Much of this is our fault.

Our strategic errors and short sightedness had led to this mess. Much of our issues with terrorism also have to do with our national objectives, which remain undefined. Who are we supporting and why? By his own admission, Mian Nawaz Sharif has stated time and again that while he was prime minister, he was not consulted on many nationally strategic issues like the Kargil War and the Karachi operation. Civilian leaderships are not trusted.

Possibly in all this, our biggest danger remains extremism. The intolerance of many quarters amongst us had led us to make a fool of ourselves. We ridicule great minds and patronise midgets. One indicator of our mindset is TV. Most popular are our televangelists and talk show hosts who espouse killing fellow Pakistanis in the name of religion. How we get people out of this mindset remains a challenge for all.

In the final analysis, merely bringing General Musharraf to trial is not enough. We need to have a Truth and Reconciliation Commission that is headed by a judge like Justice Fakhruddin G Ebrahim. It should start from the “October Revolution” of 1958 and work its way to the Musharraf years.

This Commission should determine who played what role in which fiasco and who benefitted. Let us name names. Let the information come out.

It is important to learn the truth. We can then decide who to punish and who to pardon. At least we will know what we have been through and who was responsible.

At the same time, we need to make peace with ourselves. Let us enter into some loose arrangement with Bangladesh. As two sovereign independent nations, we can still be part of the same dream - a modern Muslim state built on the ideals of Mr Jinnah and the leaders of the Freedom Movement. In that sense, let us go back to the good old days.

Email: kamal.siddiqi@thenews.com.pk

 

[jarnee]

True, but somehow I feel that we just cant afford to let the system get mature and consume another 15-20 years.

Its now or never for us!

What option do you have.. Asma Jhangir is in India these days , she is also saying the same thing.. we cannt afford to go back to Army rule.

 

[muse]

Osama introduced Nawaz Sharif to Saudi royals: ex-ISI chief

LAHORE: Osama Bin Laden introduced Nawaz Sharif to the Saudi royal family in the late 1980s, and – during a meeting – the former prime minister had asked the Al Qaeda chief to provide employment to Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia, claimed former ISI chief Khalid Khwaja on Sunday. According to the Times of India, Khwaja – who was close to Nawaz in the late 1980s and early 1990s – made the claim in an interview. “During his first visit to Saudi Arabia as chief minister of Punjab in the late 1980s, no one from the royal family gave Nawaz importance,” he said. “Thereafter, on Nawaz’s request, Osama introduced him to the royal family,” said Khwaja. “A close aide of the Sharif family and I arranged at least five meetings between Nawaz and Osama in Saudi Arabia.” daily times monitor

 

[Elmo]

Osama introduced Nawaz Sharif to Saudi royals: ex-ISI chief

LAHORE: Osama Bin Laden introduced Nawaz Sharif to the Saudi royal family in the late 1980s, and – during a meeting – the former prime minister had asked the Al Qaeda chief to provide employment to Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia, claimed former ISI chief Khalid Khwaja on Sunday. According to the Times of India, Khwaja – who was close to Nawaz in the late 1980s and early 1990s – made the claim in an interview. “During his first visit to Saudi Arabia as chief minister of Punjab in the late 1980s, no one from the royal family gave Nawaz importance,” he said. “Thereafter, on Nawaz’s request, Osama introduced him to the royal family,” said Khwaja. “A close aide of the Sharif family and I arranged at least five meetings between Nawaz and Osama in Saudi Arabia.” daily times monitor

Who all buys this?

 

[muse]

Between democracy and anarchy
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

Democracy is the most cherished political system. However, it is found in so many forms and shapes that even dictatorial and authoritarian regimes label themselves democratic through innovative interpretations of the concept of democracy and their governance style.

Democracy is such a delicate system of governance that it can degenerate into socio-political incoherence and anarchy when a democratic government suffers from mis-governance and fails to deliver anything to the people, who then get alienated from the ruling elite as well as the political system.

Pakistan’s latest return to democracy with the February 2008 general elections was marked by much fanfare of triumph and a strong expectation that Pakistan would enter the era of people-oriented governance.

There have been some positive signs since February 2008. Elected governments are in office both at the federal and provincial levels and people have greater access to the corridors of power through their elected representatives. Unlike the earlier phase of democracy, 1988-1999, the government and the opposition have kept their conflicts within manageable limits. Despite the periodic use of tough rhetoric against each other, they have not allowed their differences to cross the point of no return. The government has not so far used the state apparatus to harass the opposition or stifle the media.

However, there are several troubling signs that raise doubts about the viability of the present political order, and show streaks of incoherence and anarchy. If these negative trends are not checked, the present democratic experiment may become dysfunctional.

Four inter-related factors can cause internal incoherence. These are mis-governance by the government; the opposition perception that the failure of the government improves the prospects of the opposition to assume power; a sustained political campaign to malign the government as well as discredit the political class; and an over-active and over-confident judiciary stepping frequently in the executive and legislative domains.

The federal government’s performance in addressing the economic problems of the people has been a major disappointment. The latest sugar crisis has shown that the federal and provincial governments are unable to persuade the sugar mill owners to bring sugar to the market in the required quantity and at affordable prices. Price hike of food items and other essential commodities is another issue that exposed the ineffectiveness of the government.

The perception of ineffectiveness of the government has caused much alienation among the common people who feel that democratic leadership cannot deliver any services to them. This explains why the popularity of the PPP government has taken a nosedive.

Further, the slow response of the government to a host of issues like the restoration of the Chief justice and some judges, and the unnecessary delay in rectifying the 17th amendment has also caused drift in the political process.

The perception of inefficacy of the government encouraged various groups and individuals to use strong-arm tactics to get their way. Some elements among the lawyers use violence or threat thereof to pressure the police and lower courts. There are complaints against some parliamentarians, especially those belonging to the PMLN, of use of abusive language or violence to pursue their individual agendas. Various groups resort to street protests for minor issues. The most common tactics is to block traffic on main roads, crossings, or highways rather than hold negotiations for settling their affairs.

Those who have no stake in the political system are also building pressure on the current democratic processes. The Jama’at-e Islami and Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf did not contest the 2008 elections and now want this system to collapse so that they can try their luck in the new election.

Islamic parties and a big section of orthodox religious circles were opposed to the military operations in Swat and the tribal areas. Initially, they publicly condemned the Swat operation. However, as they realised that people at large are supporting the Swat operation, they switched gears and targeted the American role in Pakistan to embarrass the government. The strategy has worked more effectively than their policy of public criticism of military operations against the Taliban because anti-American sentiments are shared widely in varying degrees in Pakistan.

This is coupled with media reports about corruption at the highest level in the government. These are meant to totally alienate the people from the government so that it finds it difficult to sustain itself.

Another development causing political chaos pertains to the statements of a number of ex-intelligence officers during the last four weeks. It is quite possible that some elements in the military-dominated intelligence agencies encouraged these elements to give details of how political leaders were easily manipulated by the agencies. If poor governance and stories of corruption are meant to undermine the reputation of the top leadership of the PPP, especially Asif Ali Zardari, the narratives of the ex-intelligence officers targeted mainly Nawaz Sharif with the objective of discrediting him.

The PMLN is pursuing an ambiguous policy towards current trends in politics. Its top leadership, i.e. Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif, has maintained cordial interaction with the PPP. However, the second tier leadership of the party engages in sharp criticism of the PPP from time to time. The PMLN is happy that the PPP is losing popular support. It is also hoping for mid-term elections and that they would sweep elections in Punjab.

The PMLN expects to rule at the federal level on the basis of its expected support in Punjab. It wants to win most seats in the province, like the 1997 elections, and rope in some smaller groups and independents from other provinces to set up the new government. As the PMLN’s pivot of power will be located in the Punjab, its rule may build resentment in other provinces. It should devote more attention to building its support outside Punjab. Its top leadership should visit other provinces rather than confining themselves to the Punjab.

Another threat to the future of the present civilian institutional arrangements comes from an overconfident judiciary that steps into the executive domain too frequently. This discredits the political leadership and builds tension between the judiciary on the one hand and the executive and legislature on the other. If this conflict crosses limits, it can contribute to instability and anarchy.

Political incoherence and anarchy is likely to shift the balance of power in the political system in favour of the military and intelligence services. However, they will find it extremely difficult to cope with the troubled situation at a time when they are deeply involved in security operations against terrorists in the tribal areas. The military should continue to focus on that threat rather than toying with ideas of a direct or indirect political role.

The growing incoherence and dysfunctional nature of the political system does not merely pose a threat to the ruling PPP: the major opposition party, the PMLN, will also be adversely affected. It will not be able to salvage the situation. Therefore, major political leaders and parties should pool their political resources to avert such political incoherence. There will be no winners if Pakistan drifts towards the wrong end on the democracy-anarchy continuum.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst