Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

As the article itself stated, Dassault didn't confirmed the figure, so it remains to be just another estimate. Personally I think that figure is too low and I stick with my estimate of around $16 billion, lets see.

$12 Billion does sound too low, this was the intial estimate back 2008-10 IIRC so one has to factor in inflation and ER flucuations.

I'm sticking to the $15-16 Billion figure that I have been repeating since June 2014

 

[Sri]

The $12 billion might be flyaway cost which means cost of each bird little less than $100 million which was our guess and I believe the lifetime cost might be $20 billion which I think is also fine.
any thoughts
tx

An interesting link of approx flyaway cost: Modern aircraft flyaway costs « Defense Issues

 

[Abingdonboy]

The $12 billion might be flyaway cost which means cost of each bird little less than $100 million which was our guess and I believe the lifetime cost might be $20 billion which I think is also fine.
any thoughts
tx

I don't think so.
a) no one is going to make life-cycle costs public, this just isn't how these things work
b) it is said, as a rule of thumb, that life cycle costs are 3 times the flyaway/unit cost so over the life span, if the $12 billion was the unit/flyaway cost, the lifecycle cost would be around $36 billion.

The $12-16 billion figure takes into account training, spares, ToT, setting up of infrastrcuture etc etc (not to mention 50% of this has to be ploughed back into India under offsets).

 

[Sri]

I don't think so.
a) no one is going to make life-cycle costs public, this just isn't how these things work
b) it is said, as a rule of thumb, that life cycle costs are 3 times the flyaway/unit cost so over the life span, if the $12 billion was the unit/flyaway cost, the lifecycle cost would be around $36 billion.

The $12-16 billion figure takes into account training, spares, ToT, setting up of infrastrcuture etc etc (not to mention 50% of this has to be ploughed back into India under offsets).

Agreed.
But GOI/IAF usually keeps all numbers separately so that the figure looks small, in this case the $12 billion is from French media so I still believe the $12 billion is flyaway cost and as you said $3-4 billion for training+ weapons etc. and the life cycle costs were always speculated anywhere between 20 to 30 billion.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Russian Media Latest
UK to Offer Eurofighters Should India Scrap Rafale Deal

UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said that the United Kingdom could offer Eurofighters to India if India’s long-disputed deal to acquire French Rafale jets falls through.

British authorities are aware that the “deal with Dassault has not gone smoothly,” Hammond said, adding that the United Kingdom sees this as an opportunity to offer Eurofighters if India opens an official competitive bidding.

Hammond, who is currently on a two-day trip to India, noted that he had not raised the issue with Indian authorities in the course of the ongoing meetings.

UK to Offer Eurofighters Should India Scrap Rafale Deal / Sputnik International

Customery line to media but not raised when Mr Hammond met Indian Authorities.. Wow

 

[Abingdonboy]

Russian Media Latest
UK to Offer Eurofighters Should India Scrap Rafale Deal

UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said that the United Kingdom could offer Eurofighters to India if India’s long-disputed deal to acquire French Rafale jets falls through.

British authorities are aware that the “deal with Dassault has not gone smoothly,” Hammond said, adding that the United Kingdom sees this as an opportunity to offer Eurofighters if India opens an official competitive bidding.

Hammond, who is currently on a two-day trip to India, noted that he had not raised the issue with Indian authorities in the course of the ongoing meetings.

UK to Offer Eurofighters Should India Scrap Rafale Deal / Sputnik International

Customery line to media but not raised when Mr Hammond met Indian Authorities.. Wow

That it most unexpected, this would be a pretty standard thing to do just to go through the motions at the very least. All I can think is that the Indian side communicated beforehand that the MMRCA deal wouldn't be on the agenda for this meeting.

 

[sancho]

That it most unexpected

Why? If the Rafale is rejected, the next logical choice is the EF, so they don't offer something new here. All they say is, if that happens, they are ready and I'm sure the backchannel proposals are more detailed. But as it stands, Rafale is the L1 and going to the L2 is only possible when the L1 was rejected.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Why? If the Rafale is rejected, the next logical choice is the EF, so they don't offer something new here. All they say is, if that happens, they are ready and I'm sure the backchannel proposals are more detailed. But as it stands, Rafale is the L1 and going to the L2 is only possible when the L1 was rejected.

Well, until now, every British/German offical that has met with a Indian minister of defence/foreign minister has at least touched upon the EFT sale to India AFAIK.

 

[sancho]

Well, until now, every British/German offical that has met with a Indian minister of defence/foreign minister has at least touched upon the EFT sale to India AFAIK.

Of course, but since the selection of Rafale as L1, they always stated that they are ready to provide the EF in case the Rafale deal fails. That's also what the Germans said last year, when they also rumoredly proposed a better offer. The official status is, we are negotiation only with Dassault now and only when that doesn't work out, we can move to an alternative, be it the EF or additional MKIs...

 

[PARIKRAMA]

LoungeAvenue Group ‏@LoungeAvenue 6h6 hours ago
Rafale fighter on it's way to bomb IS

 

[kirankumar299]

I think we should close this thread....i'm fed up reading about MMRCA for all these years and open a new one if we ever sign this deal

 

[Abingdonboy]

I think we should close this thread....i'm fed up reading about MMRCA for all these years and open a new one if we ever sign this deal

Mate, no one is aksing you to visit this thread, you can ignore it until the time comes that it is signed...

 

[CONNAN]

Rafale fighter jet deal not yet finalised: Parrikar

New Delhi, Mar 13:
India’s multi-billion dollar Rafale fighter jet contract with France has not been finalised yet and is still in the negotiation stage, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar informed Lok Sabha today.

“Rafael deal is not through or final. If it is at all finalised in future, it will take time. I would not like to comment on it as it is still in the negotiation stage,” he said during question hour.

The Rafale deal for 126 jets is estimated to cost over US$ 20 billion over the next decade and is considered to be the biggest global defence tender.

The Defence Minister said the Defence Acquisition Council has recently cleared 44 projects worth Rs. 1,34,000 crore and all of them were critical for the armed forces.

“We are trying to fast track our defence acquisition process. One example is bullet-proof jacket. We have already ordered 50,000 bullet proof jacket and 50,000 more are expected to be ordered shortly...,” he said.

Parrikar said his Ministry was ensuring that all three wings of the armed forces coordinate with each other for inclusiveness rather than exclusiveness, so that duplication is avoided while acquiring defence products.

Observing that some critical shortages in ammunitions were being addressed, he said a constant endeavour was made for upgrading the conventional equipment, developing new technologies and acquiring contemporary systems.

“Mismatches between requirements and availability can sometimes occur which are continually address by the on-going procurement process,” he said.

Parrikar said unsafe and outdated equipment were not utilised by defence forces. Ageing of equipment is a natural process and is dealt with through proper maintenance, obsolescence management, upgrades and acquisition of new equipment.

The Defence Acquisition Council has decided for procurement of light helicopters under the ‘buy and make’ category. Five cases of procurement of small arms are at different stages of the procurement cycle, he said.

Rafale fighter jet deal not yet finalised: Parrikar | Business Line

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Reply to Bharat Karnad's article

A Rafale Fable
By Manmohan Bahadur

Published: 13th March 2015 06:00 AM

Last Updated: 12th March 2015 10:31 PM

A bit of unsolicited advice for the defence minister; he can close down the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) directorate of air staff requirements at Air Headquarters as also the Aircraft and Systems Testing Establishment in Bangalore. The former decides IAF’s operational requirements in terms of equipment and the latter, with its trained flight test aircrew and technical officers, evaluates aircraft and other equipment that come for trials before induction into the IAF. These are costly set-ups but are a waste, for there are armchair “experts” who know better and have reached such heights of competence that they are suggesting sacking of the Air Chief for a supposed shortfall of professional acumen (not having a Plan B, in case the Rafale contract does not take place)! Bharat Karnad’s “Terminate the Rafale Deal” (TNIE, March 06, 2014) is another fable from the quiver of an aviation non professional; in normal course these views would have been ignored, but having been carried to lakhs of Indians by this esteemed newspaper, the facts need to be set straight.

Air defence is in safe hands and the IAF’s deterrence posture is adequate to ward off any misadventures; what is also true, however, is that depleting squadron strength, which is the cutting edge of any Air Force, needs to be addressed pretty soon. The IAF, after a thorough evaluation, found that only the Rafale and Eurofighter met the operational requirements of a Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA); the evaluation of the commercial bids found the French Rafale, made by Marcel Dassault, to be cheaper.

Fingers are now being raised on the selection by IAF flight test experts (super specialists in medical terms) questioning the “fighting quality of the aircraft”. The selection process is explicitly enumerated in the Defence Procurement Procedure and was followed to the T. Six aircraft from five countries were put through a rigorous evaluation in the Indian environment over a period of two years and the evaluation report submitted to the government; that not a squeak against the evaluation was heard is testimony to the professionalism of the valuation. But now, as the government’s decision is near (as one hopes it is), the doubting Thomases have got into their usual game of introducing red herrings—ever wondered why these things happen whenever a big project of any wing of the armed forces is nearing fruition?

Questions have also been raised on the integrity and professional competence of the Price Negotiation Committees (PNC) of the ministry of defence (MoD) for their supposed inability to demand our monies’ worth from Marcel Dassault. If they are incompetent, then this trait would be true for a Rafale contract as well as for a Sukhoi or any buy of the services, in which case we are doomed as a nation! That contract discussions have taken this long attests to the fact that the MoD is ensuring that India gets its due. A techno-financial angle has been introduced in the debate stating that it would be better to acquire more numbers of cheaper Su-30s and Tejas Mk2s for the same monies as the 126 Rafales. This only speaks volumes of the professional ignorance of the analyst.

A nation evaluates its threats and from that flows the capability required by the services to counter them. There is no aircraft that can alone perform all the tasks (how one wishes it was so) that come the Air Force’s way and from that flows selection of different role-based acquisitions. The Su-30 is an air dominance fighter while the Rafale is a medium multi-role aircraft; one can only complement the other and not be a replacement for it. The capabilities of the two are vastly different. While both have similar external carriage capacity, the flight range of the Rafale is almost three times that of the Su-30 (with similar external load and without air-to-air refueling). The Rafale has the active electronically scanned array radar while the Su-30 has one of older technology. The survivability of the Rafale is much better due its state-of-the-art electronic warfare suite. The Sukhoi requires two aircrews while the Rafale is a single-pilot aircraft—hence the training requirements would more than double in case of the Sukhoi, a huge task in itself. The Rafale’s wingspan is small and it fits into existing blast pens on our airfields while the Sukhoi requires costly bigger ones to be constructed. The differences are many but each aircraft has a unique place in the war fighting calculus of the IAF. The catchword is “role”; an air force decides what are the roles that it needs to perform and accordingly recommends the proposal that meets the qualitative requirements. The IAF has done just that and would perform its role with the equipment it possesses when the balloon goes up—it’s the only Plan, Plan A that it has. A Plan B? What’s that?

Now to the really strange issue raised by the “analyst” of Rafales being procured by Qatar, being flown by Pakistani pilots and being upgraded by Saudi money and being transferred to China for a strip evaluation such that when IAF Rafales get into a fight with the Chinese, their air defence system would shoot them out of the sky! Incidentally, the Chinese have the Su-30 MKK in their inventory and are going to get the Su-35 very soon; one wonders how the Su-30 MKI would be a total mystery for them and escape their air defence but the Rafale would not? Does the analyst realise that he is passing this judgment on a professional outfit like the IAF? And he adds that the French “…won’t allow the indigenous Brahmos supersonic cruise missile to take out targets inside China from standoff range”. The Brahmos is yet to fly on the Su-30 and the Rafale is yet to come in to IAF; one wonders why Dassault has refused permission for mounting the Brahmos on the Rafale without the IAF even asking for it?

Readers of this newspaper can rest assured that their Air Force is held in high esteem for its professionalism in choosing its equipment and using it in war. Sleep well dear countrymen and women—our skies are safe and will remain so!

The writer, a retired Air Vice Marshal, is a distinguished fellow at Centre for Air Power Studies. Email: m_bahadur@rediffmail.com

A Rafale Fable -The New Indian Express

 

[sancho]

Reply to Bharat Karnad's article

A Rafale Fable
By Manmohan Bahadur

Nice reply and some interesting points that he raises on basic operational differences of Rafale compared to MKI.