Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

Tell me weather 16 is coming or not?I don't want that to happen...

The F-16?

 

[#hydra#]

The F-16?

Us,f16.... After @PARIKRAMA ,u are the only trusted source in PDF , Indian section is conceded.

 

[randomradio]

Rafale MII is happening, LWF MII is happening and LCA MII(duh) is happening.

Lot of people are still confused. IAF want 400 aircraft before 2027, pushed to before 2028. So all three lines are necessary.

IAF can't afford 40 Rafales a year, so they have settled for 20 Rafales and 20 LWF. Nothing complicated about that.

 

[#hydra#]

Rafale MII is happening, LWF MII is happening and LCA MII(duh) is happening.

Lot of people are still confused. IAF want 400 aircraft before 2027, pushed to before 2028. So all three lines are necessary.

IAF can't afford 40 Rafales a year, so they have settled for 20 Rafales and 20 LWF. Nothing complicated about that.

Then why not additional rafale?

 

[randomradio]

Then why not additional rafale?

I've already mentioned that.
IAF can't afford 40 Rafales a year,

After MKI's full rate production started, IAF proceeded to purchase a large number of MKIs, 82, from Russian lines. So for a long time, IAF was inducting 2 squadrons a year, right up to 2015. 2015 was also the original year when MKI's production was supposed to end.

So IAF had planned to purchase 108 Rafales from the Indian line and 81 Rafales from the French line over a period of 10 years after contract signature. This was supposed to be from 2013 to 2023, revised to 2015 to 2025, now canceled. Especially after the poor growth under UPA-2, which Parrikar constantly keeps reminding us.

With the failure of LCA, now they've decided the MMRCA option is too expensive. So instead of buying 189 expensive jets in 10 years, they have decided to get 90 Rafales and 90 LWF in 10 years. Of course, production will continue beyond that, but you have to be sensitive about the time frame also. 2027, now 2028, is the cut off date.

So now we will buy more than 90 Rafales, and more than 90 LWF, but staggered over a much longer time frame, say up to 2032, just assuming. But this way, with 3 lines, IAF will be able to get up to strength at a faster rate, with lesser chances of delays.

Guy, don't forget that the LCA Mk2 was originally supposed to get IOC in 2018. So this requirement has been moved to LWF. There is literally nothing special going on. We simply can't afford Rafales as planned under MMRCA, so we have merely devised a new plan, basically a slightly slower Rafale induction at cheaper rates (kudos to Parrikar for getting such good terms) and replaced the Mk2 with the Mk1A and the new LWF.

The IAF's immediate and obvious objective is to have 300 new jets on contract and delivered by 2027.

Original 10-year plan
189 Rafale
120 LCA Mk1 and Mk2

New 10-year plan
90 Rafale
90 LWF
120 LCA Mk1 and Mk1A

Naturally, follow on options will come in at a later date in multiple tranches, depending on the progress of FGFA and AMCA, making the entire procurement plan for the IAF much more feasible than earlier.

This new LWF could be Gripen, F-16 or LSA.

I hope this makes it much easier to understand.

Naturally, in 2022, these numbers will come up for revision again, so depending on how well the country grows economically, IAF may even purchase 2 Rafale and 2 LWF squadrons from both the Indian and foreign line, as it was for MKI, or even double both the MII lines. But the current plan is based on current economic realities.

 

[Nilgiri]

Decide on MII quickly because China has its eyes on the Raffy too :

View attachment 345976
​

Tay -----» [ ]

 

[Taygibay]

Well, if by 2030, the IAF has 300 MKIs ( incl. Supers )
150 Rafales and 200 various LCAs and retiring frames
with a sprinkle of FGFAs and the AMCA well on its way,
I'll consider it both lucky and a considerable force despite
that count failing the total squadron mantra! We'll see ...

@Nilgiri keep your cheap music and have yourself another
heap of REAL tiger :

​

Good day all, Tay.​

 

[Abingdonboy]

Us,f16.... After @PARIKRAMA ,u are the only trusted source in PDF , Indian section is conceded.

F-16 has zero chance in India.

Well, if by 2030, the IAF has 300 MKIs ( incl. Supers )

Assured, 340 is likely to be the total number but as I have said above, this may be revised upwards or downwards by a margin of 20 a/c depending on how FGFA production comes along.

150 Rafales

Again, assured at this point the only issue with Rafale MII is creating the requisite infrastructure in India to churn them out. Others seem to be very optimistic about how quickly an Indian line can come up but I remain rather skeptical.

200 various LCAs

120 are guarenteed, going by how Indian defence procurements work (batch orders) another 80 or so is easily doable. The issue with the LCA will be on the production side, by 2020 HAL plans to have an installed capacity to churn out 16/year with 2 lines of its own and are attempting to rope in a private player to create a third line of their own so theoretically within a few years 24 LCA/year could be rolling out (if everything goes right, which rarely happens).

No need to mention the foreign single engine LWF hoax.

I've already mentioned that.
IAF can't afford 40 Rafales a year,

After MKI's full rate production started, IAF proceeded to purchase a large number of MKIs, 82, from Russian lines. So for a long time, IAF was inducting 2 squadrons a year, right up to 2015. 2015 was also the original year when MKI's production was supposed to end.

So IAF had planned to purchase 108 Rafales from the Indian line and 81 Rafales from the French line over a period of 10 years after contract signature. This was supposed to be from 2013 to 2023, revised to 2015 to 2025, now canceled. Especially after the poor growth under UPA-2, which Parrikar constantly keeps reminding us.

With the failure of LCA, now they've decided the MMRCA option is too expensive. So instead of buying 189 expensive jets in 10 years, they have decided to get 90 Rafales and 90 LWF in 10 years. Of course, production will continue beyond that, but you have to be sensitive about the time frame also. 2027, now 2028, is the cut off date.

So now we will buy more than 90 Rafales, and more than 90 LWF, but staggered over a much longer time frame, say up to 2032, just assuming. But this way, with 3 lines, IAF will be able to get up to strength at a faster rate, with lesser chances of delays.

Guy, don't forget that the LCA Mk2 was originally supposed to get IOC in 2018. So this requirement has been moved to LWF. There is literally nothing special going on. We simply can't afford Rafales as planned under MMRCA, so we have merely devised a new plan, basically a slightly slower Rafale induction at cheaper rates (kudos to Parrikar for getting such good terms) and replaced the Mk2 with the Mk1A and the new LWF.

The IAF's immediate and obvious objective is to have 300 new jets on contract and delivered by 2027.

Original 10-year plan
189 Rafale
120 LCA Mk1 and Mk2

New 10-year plan
90 Rafale
90 LWF
120 LCA Mk1 and Mk1A

Naturally, follow on options will come in at a later date in multiple tranches, depending on the progress of FGFA and AMCA, making the entire procurement plan for the IAF much more feasible than earlier.

This new LWF could be Gripen, F-16 or LSA.

I hope this makes it much easier to understand.

Naturally, in 2022, these numbers will come up for revision again, so depending on how well the country grows economically, IAF may even purchase 2 Rafale and 2 LWF squadrons from both the Indian and foreign line, as it was for MKI, or even double both the MII lines. But the current plan is based on current economic realities.

When talking about Rafale numbers for India let us not forget the IN's own demand for the type.

Again, I will forever refrain from taking the LWF seriously.

 

[Nilgiri]

Well, if by 2030, the IAF has 300 MKIs ( incl. Supers )
150 Rafales and 200 various LCAs and retiring frames
with a sprinkle of FGFAs and the AMCA well on its way,
I'll consider it both lucky and a considerable force despite
that count failing the total squadron mantra! We'll see ...

@Nilgiri keep your cheap music and have yourself another
heap of REAL tiger :

View attachment 346081​

​

Good day all, Tay.​

Lol at that tail art.

Growwwl

 

[randomradio]

When talking about Rafale numbers for India let us not forget the IN's own demand for the type.

Those are not relevant to the IAF's requirement or budget.

The Americans are pushing for the F-35, way too much. To the point that they are willing to cancel the carrier arrangement. I just hope whatever decision the IN takes is a sensible decision.

 

[dadeechi]

Thats not the case bro, moreover government can't socialize losses to people and profit to any private company,. It's taxpayers money not DM money. Opposition and CAG will tear BJP down.
The only reason for abandoning the original MMRCA was the very steep rise in price of Rafael over what originally predicted by the ministry. Now we are looking for cheaper alternative like F16 grippen etc. Speaks volume of planning and execution by ministry of defence. Only real solution for these problems can be LCA and AMCA . But if F16 deal is done, I believe, AMCA will not see the light of the day and will die due to lack of funds.

AMCA would not die but it would have a late start between 2030-2035.

 

[wiseone2]

Those are not relevant to the IAF's requirement or budget.

The Americans are pushing for the F-35, way too much. To the point that they are willing to cancel the carrier arrangement. I just hope whatever decision the IN takes is a sensible decision.

i did not realize the f-35 is available
would a puchase of 40-60 aircraft keep the americans away ?

 

[dadeechi]

• There is no additional MKI orders, IAF chief said it multiple times.
• LCA/Gripen ! really ?. Its LCA Mk1 40 + LCA MK1A 80 (Already ordered)
• 9 sqd of Upgraded Mig29/M2000/jaugars, It will be replaced by AMCA after 2030 (im quoting IAF chief again)
• Get a grip dude, 200 F-16s! That too by 2024?

Stop living in parallel universe and when making assumptions quote official sources.

Please check my earlier post -> https://defence.pk/threads/make-in-...-gripen-any-other.448850/page-11#post-8788834

My response is here

https://defence.pk/threads/make-in-...-gripen-any-other.448850/page-21#post-8846482

i did not realize the f-35 is available
would a puchase of 40-60 aircraft keep the americans away ?

F-35s would be available to India post 2030.

 

[Agent_47]

The current MKI production cycle will come to an end in 2019 (2020 at the latest), the FGFA will not be in production before 2026 (maybe, MAYBE 2025) so there is still a huge period of time where HAL's Naisik plant will be idle and this just isn't going to be allowed. More MKI orders will be made simply to keep the plant humming along until the FGFA is ready to enter production. At least another 30 MKIs will come post 2019 (with HAL turning down output to single digits per annum to stretch the delivery timeline.).

Look at the future force structure, IAF don't want to induct more heavy fighters.Chief said it multiple times. The last order of 40 was to extend production line. Naisik plant will be focusing on overhauls.

 

[dadeechi]

Look at the future force structure, IAF don't want to induct more heavy fighters.Chief said it multiple times. The last order of 40 was to extend production line. Naisik plant will be focusing on overhauls.

What about the 40 that would carry Brahmos?

@Abingdonboy