Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[itachii]

The fruit of patience is always sweet. 36 RAFALEs deal was done long ago.

Its just that it is not being announced for a reason.

Indians would be very happy when the full details emerge..

Arey bhai ? what is the reason ?? both @Abingdonboy and @PARIKRAMA sir say the same thing, while never disclosing the reason

 

[DesiGuy1403]

Arey bhai ? what is the reason ?? both @Abingdonboy and @PARIKRAMA sir say the same thing, while never disclosing the reason

yeah, even I hope they can "clarify" with more details

 

[Taygibay]

both @Abingdonboy and @PARIKRAMA sir say the same thing, while never disclosing the reason

yeah, even I hope they are "clarify" with more details

Simply put,

A- The deal now really hinges on more than 36 planes and should furthermore
be put in the context of strategic partnership;
B- No details can be left unheeded to so that no one can later find enough blame
to derail the process ( closing stages are a double check exercise );
C- The moment this deal is announced, especially if you hint at follow-up orders,
India's side led by your DM MP loses all leverage to other selling entities;
D- The Indian public opinion is so diverse and critical that no amount of staging
and / or psy ops to make the medecine go down should be spared for the reveal.

And have a great evening both, Tay.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Source based news about LM offer
(first reported about the meeting in The Hindu newspaper)

• Meeting between Marilyn Hewson and FM Arun Jaitley happened last week for over 20 mins
• LM latest discussion suggested that India become the global MRO for F16
• The assembly line transfer will be completed in less than 3 years
• The first F16 will roll out by 3.5 years from the date of signing the FMS deal from Indian assembly line
• The F16 will be customized as India wants and will sport indigenous weapon systems like Astra BVR
• Indian order will be further divided into exclusive access to the following
  • 75% of the F16 order will be eligible for F35 purchase under reduced rates post 2022
  • 66% of the F16 order will be eligible for a new fighter F22 E (exports) post 2020-22. to be purchased by only handful of nations (5 in numbers as of now with Japan and India and 3 others with limited purchases)
• The export version of F22 E will be first lucrative point of technology being shared between USA for Japan 5th gen program and India's AMCA.
• There would be senate approvals required and the export version will have downgraded specs but potency of the F22E vs F22 is not yet defined.
• India will need the foundation agreements adherence completely.
• It was noted that F16-F35-F22E the whole deal structure has evolved a lot but still need more concrete terms on the same.
• FM AJ assured that PM NaMo and DM MP will be appraised about the whole deal structure and he hoped that LM will provide India with a 'meaningful' and 'substantial' technology transfer in any aircraft deal.
• FM AJ discussed the above discussion points with DM MP.
• DM MP has told LM representative of what his expectations are ..
  • To a pointed question about what is the real chance of F22E as it has been in news for some time, LM folks defined that they are studying market prospects and believe India and Japan alone can consume around 150 such devices and net 5 country potential as of now stands close to 250 odd numbers. This number may be further expanded when more Nato allies join in for the F22E orders.
  • LM was cited a recent example that an aircraft major is willing to invest in domestic engine program. So what is the possibility that LM also does the same and makes a family of Engines which can power all the 3 (F16,F35 and F22E) thereby getting India a high indigenous number.
  • LM reply to this was they need to study more to understand if such an arrangement can be made or not as they feel all 3 jets required too much different class of engines.
  • A family of engines supporting all different types of fighter jets and which can also power our AMCA program is one of the key points which India is looking at.
  • Also India explicitly asked for Radar, Stealth, Communication, Reduced detection capabilities, RAM technology and armaments to be completely shared with partial codes for any meaningful offer.
  • Again on this point, LM needs clarity from US government and Senate.
  • To a pointed question on weapon customization, LM said present US weapons latest versions would be supplied and Indian weapon customization can be done. To this DM MP clearly asked without codes being shared how can India configure Astra and NG ARM etc and recertify the plane.. LM did not reply to that.

It looks like DM MP wont agree for the LM deal at present structure due to uncertainity and lack of clarity on terms.
F22E is like a carrot dangled for the fact that India has not fallen for the F35.

India is very close to freezing FGFA project investments and release the funds. Talks are already going on for PAKFA stage 1 some numbers for procurement in 2021-25 period before stage 2 FGFA is made in Indian assembly line. The efforts seems to undercut this PAKFA stage 1 numbers by pitching in F22E

One thing what is clear is that despite of public campaigns by LM and Saab, DM MP seems a man who had not fallen for such facade and is bargaining hard to see how much willing LM, Saab and perhaps Boeing is in reality willing to offer a good economical package to India. With terms as desired by India and are agreeable to Indian side without giving up control, access and shelling out a blank cheque.

@Abingdonboy @anant_s @MilSpec @Vergennes @Taygibay @Nilgiri @Stephen Cohen @BON PLAN @dadeechi @others

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@PARIKRAMA

With regard to the US ; some deal will happen -- which plane we cannot say

That is the whole point of an ENHANCED partnership

Secondly it looks like Rafale MII will not happen ; just 54 or 80 odd Off the shelf

 

[Nilgiri]

Source based news about LM offer
(first reported about the meeting in The Hindu newspaper)

• Meeting between Marilyn Hewson and FM Arun Jaitley happened last week for over 20 mins
• LM latest discussion suggested that India become the global MRO for F16
• The assembly line transfer will be completed in less than 3 years
• The first F16 will roll out by 3.5 years from the date of signing the FMS deal from Indian assembly line
• The F16 will be customized as India wants and will sport indigenous weapon systems like Astra BVR
• Indian order will be further divided into exclusive access to the following
  • 75% of the F16 order will be eligible for F35 purchase under reduced rates post 2022
  • 66% of the F16 order will be eligible for a new fighter F22 E (exports) post 2020-22. to be purchased by only handful of nations (5 in numbers as of now with Japan and India and 3 others with limited purchases)
• The export version of F22 E will be first lucrative point of technology being shared between USA for Japan 5th gen program and India's AMCA.
• There would be senate approvals required and the export version will have downgraded specs but potency of the F22E vs F22 is not yet defined.
• India will need the foundation agreements adherence completely.
• It was noted that F16-F35-F22E the whole deal structure has evolved a lot but still need more concrete terms on the same.
• FM AJ assured that PM NaMo and DM MP will be appraised about the whole deal structure and he hoped that LM will provide India with a 'meaningful' and 'substantial' technology transfer in any aircraft deal.
• FM AJ discussed the above discussion points with DM MP.
• DM MP has told LM representative of what his expectations are ..
  • To a pointed question about what is the real chance of F22E as it has been in news for some time, LM folks defined that they are studying market prospects and believe India and Japan alone can consume around 150 such devices and net 5 country potential as of now stands close to 250 odd numbers. This number may be further expanded when more Nato allies join in for the F22E orders.
  • LM was cited a recent example that an aircraft major is willing to invest in domestic engine program. So what is the possibility that LM also does the same and makes a family of Engines which can power all the 3 (F16,F35 and F22E) thereby getting India a high indigenous number.
  • LM reply to this was they need to study more to understand if such an arrangement can be made or not as they feel all 3 jets required too much different class of engines.
  • A family of engines supporting all different types of fighter jets and which can also power our AMCA program is one of the key points which India is looking at.
  • Also India explicitly asked for Radar, Stealth, Communication, Reduced detection capabilities, RAM technology and armaments to be completely shared with partial codes for any meaningful offer.
  • Again on this point, LM needs clarity from US government and Senate.
  • To a pointed question on weapon customization, LM said present US weapons latest versions would be supplied and Indian weapon customization can be done. To this DM MP clearly asked without codes being shared how can India configure Astra and NG ARM etc and recertify the plane.. LM did not reply to that.

It looks like DM MP wont agree for the LM deal at present structure due to uncertainity and lack of clarity on terms.
F22E is like a carrot dangled for the fact that India has not fallen for the F35.

India is very close to freezing FGFA project investments and release the funds. Talks are already going on for PAKFA stage 1 some numbers for procurement in 2021-25 period before stage 2 FGFA is made in Indian assembly line. The efforts seems to undercut this PAKFA stage 1 numbers by pitching in F22E

One thing what is clear is that despite of public campaigns by LM and Saab, DM MP seems a man who had not fallen for such facade and is bargaining hard to see how much willing LM, Saab and perhaps Boeing is in reality willing to offer a good economical package to India. With terms as desired by India and are agreeable to Indian side without giving up control, access and shelling out a blank cheque.

@Abingdonboy @anant_s @MilSpec @Vergennes @Taygibay @Nilgiri @Stephen Cohen @BON PLAN @dadeechi @others

Will we know by the end of this year at least what the firm commitments and direction will be?

I enjoy how the DM is playing and hedging everyone against each other to get the absolute best deal India can muster while not sacrificing on capability.

I just wish that it was done at a much earlier stage w.r.t MMRCA program. Why we even announced the L1 candidate is beyond me.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

I just wish that it was done at a much earlier stage w.r.t MMRCA program. Why we even announced the L1 candidate is beyond me.

The India US relationship has taken time to evolve
and get better

It is always a political call to take the relationship to the next level
which had to be taken by PM Modi

Secondly Indian government realised that Over dependency on France is not good

Third the prolonged Rafale negotiations has given Hope to all its competitiors
Hence we can see these offers from SAAB and LM and Boeing

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@PARIKRAMA Could you please get some details about the French offer on Kaveri

Then what happens to GE 414

 

[Nilgiri]

The India US relationship has taken time to evolve
and get better

It is always a political call to take the relationship to the next level
which had to be taken by PM Modi

Secondly Indian government realised that Over dependency on France is not good

Third the prolonged Rafale negotiations has given Hope to all its competitiors
Hence we can see these offers from SAAB and LM and Boeing

Oh I am not blaming BJP that much....I just wish this whole thing was done under the UPA administration (i.e rather than isolating a winner and giving them bargaining advantage....keep the technical winner known to you only and then let the bidding war commence and see which one gives the best bang for the buck).

But I guess its too much to ask of that govt. At least now the system I am talking about is coming into play somewhat. Better late than never I guess.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA Could you please get some details about the French offer on Kaveri

Then what happens to GE 414

It had talked about investment of Euro 1 Bn to complete the Kaveri engine to specs as desired in the original spec sheet of 90 Kn. But that will come when we order Rafale and if DM MP and MOD is agreeable to such investments.

GE 414 i am sure will be at best licence version made in Pune plant. What we wont get is critical tech portion knwo how and passing the industrial side of it completely. Perhaps partially they may make it in India but critical parts like the HP/LP portions and Hot engine tech etc will be kit based and controlled.

Will ask source for more concrete details.. for both things..

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Oh I am not blaming BJP that much....I just wish this whole thing was done under the UPA administration (i.e rather than isolating a winner and giving them bargaining advantage....keep the technical winner known to you only and then let the bidding war commence and see which one gives the best bang for the buck).

But I guess its too much to ask of that govt. At least now the system I am talking about is coming into play somewhat. Better late than never I guess.

Their heart was interested in commisions -- not in national interest

It take a lot of time and energy efforts and committment to PUSH things
in the government

Such ideas and proposals have to be moved and initiated by the
PM and DM

Bureaucracy is only interested in shortcuts-- except for some bright people
who also loose interest after sometime

For example DM has taken 18 Meetings with all stake holders
ONLY for Tejas -- to Get TEJAS project come to a successful conclusion

 

[Nilgiri]

Their heart was interested in commisions -- not in national interest

It take a lot of time and energy efforts and committment to PUSH things
in the government

Such ideas and proposals have to be moved and initiated by the
PM and DM

Bureaucracy is only interested in shortcuts-- except for some bright people
who also loose interest after sometime

For example DM has taken 18 Meetings with all stake holders
ONLY for Tejas -- to Get TEJAS project come to a successful conclusion

Yup its why I can only wish...I know its was practically impossible. God forbid if we ever get to that situation again.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

It had talked about investment of Euro 1 Bn to complete the Kaveri engine to specs as desired in the original spec sheet of 90 Kn. But that will come when we order Rafale and if DM MP and MOD is agreeable to such investments.

GE 414 i am sure will be at best licence version made in Pune plant. What we wont get is critical tech portion knwo how and passing the industrial side of it completely. Perhaps partially they may make it in India but critical parts like the HP/LP portions and Hot engine tech etc will be kit based and controlled.

Will ask source for more concrete details.. for both things..

I specifically asked for GE 414 given that Engine Technology was ONE of the announcements
under India US DTII (Defence Technology Trade Initiative) along with EMALS

 

[anant_s]

The export version of F22 E will be first lucrative point of technology being shared between USA for Japan 5th gen program and India's AMCA.

My God!
This will be greatest catch of our times, if true.
till now US government has not allowed F 22 to be exported to any country including closest allies Israel and if we can lay hands on Raptor, it will change the military dynamics (or air power atleast) in the region forever. It would also mean an end to FGFA program and possibly AMCA number reduction.

an aircraft major is willing to invest in domestic engine program.

Pratt & Whitney? or GE?

India explicitly asked for Radar, Stealth, Communication, Reduced detection capabilities, RAM technology and armaments to be completely shared with partial codes for any meaningful offer.

Now here is something interesting. If Lockheed is making an offer, it means they have some assurances from US administration (can't be a blatant Carrot and Stick game). A lot of path breaking policy changes seem to be in offing, if some or most of above offers are to be realized in future and with sensitive technologies (that are always accompanied by changes in national policies), i'm sure someone, who takes decision has taken into account, that national policies might not change either in India or US over a long period of time.
therefore my take away from your note @PARIKRAMA is that defence is only a sector we are looking at, but Indo US relations are now under going a sea change and we will see its implications in several other areas (foreign policy included) in next few years.

 

[Nilgiri]

Pratt & Whitney? or GE?

Didn't hear about anything from my end regarding PW....though I am down the line of hierarchy by quite a bit .

GE would make the most sense.

 

[randomradio]

If they modernize the F-22, it will be ready only around the time the FGFA is ready. Pointless for India.

And India will never buy jets directly, it has to have ToT and industrial production involved.