Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

With a 3rd MMRCA line, they will comfortably reach 550 jets by 2027.

With a 5th they will do so even sooner

 

[randomradio]

With a 5th they will do so even sooner

That would be FGFA.

And 6th would be AMCA.

 

[Abingdonboy]

From what I was told, a number of journalists have the information but were told not to print that yet.

Well this information must be with very very few beacause the overwhelming (if not the homogeneous) view in the Indian and international media is that 36 is the only number of Rafales the IAF will ever get. Janes itself has reported this the so-called authority on defence matter.

Yes but what puzzle me is the fact that Parrikar try to push LCA Mk2, for that he needs information urgently, HAL refuse and said a comitee is needed, OK at the end he asks how long it will take to have the report of the comitee. It's a huge effort from him and the answer instead of being one month or one week as it is normal is one year! It's normal that now he looks for other solutions.

I agree that the answer that "we need a year just to come up with a timeline" is beyond absurd but, to my mind, it is immaterial. The GoI is commited to the Mk.2- they have to be- and any delays in MK.2 induction will/can be offset by follow-on orders of Mk.1As. Maybe, just like he is trying to do to Dassualt, the DM is trying to coerce HAL/ADA into delivering a promising deal for the AF with the SAAB boogey being dangled in front of them.

It is simply unthinkable that a single engined fighter other than the LCA will serve with the IAF/IN, it simply isn't poltically viable.

Effectively that's a reprieve for our domestic LCA program and they do have say 18 months from now to come up with something credible for MK2.

Bcz anything against LCA program won't be very easy for NDA after all LCA name Tejas was given by AB Vajpayee. For Gripens case there has to be lot of negatives cited in press for domestic audience consumption against MK2 issues and painting HAL/ADA as villains.. That's difficult as in another few years elections would be back and NDA may be seen against PSU people..

Well said bro. A great point here- whilst the Rafale is fair game for oppostion, there is almost no voice in the media calling for the scrapping of the LCA project, the established narrative is that the LCA is delayed but it is "ours" and needs to be supported at all costs.

Even SAAB (the most prominent MMRCA bidder in terms of advertisment/PR outlay) has not dared position their product against the LCA. There is just no existing framework that would allow any GoI to kill the LCA for a foreign product.

The deadline for LCA Mk2 development is unrealistic. They think it will fly in 2018 and achieve IOC in 2021.

Even if it is unrealistic, any delays will be offset by more Mk.1As (or later blocks that can be developed).

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

They suggested that a new jet requires far more testing from prototype phase and thus requires thorough analysis by a committee.
.
DM MP then seems to have asked how long will the committee take to submit the report which people replied about a year.

DM MP did not say anything on this after all this discussion.

@randomradio : It's Indian time?

 

[Abingdonboy]

That would be FGFA.

And 5th would be AMCA.

I am in agreement with you on everything else except this element sir.

 

[randomradio]

@randomradio : It's Indian time?

Even worse. It is HAL time.

I am in agreement with you on everything else except this element sir.

5th could be AURA.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Even worse. It is HAL time.



5th could be AURA.

For me, the optimal compostion would be:

1- LCA
2-LCA (second with private sector)
3- Rafale
4- MKI/FGFA
5-AMCA
6-AURA

I beleive what we will eventually see by 2023 will not be dissimilar to the above.

 

[randomradio]

For me, the optimal compostion would be:

1- LCA
2-LCA (second with private sector)
3- Rafale
4- MKI/FGFA
5-AMCA
6-AURA

I beleive what we will eventually see by 2023 will not be dissimilar to the above.

No Indian private player will pick up 2. They will lobby for a more profitable exportable line.

 

[Abingdonboy]

No Indian private player will pick up 2. They will lobby for a more profitable exportable line.

Perhaps but if the GoI/IAF commits to 150+ LCA from their line then I don't see what more incentive they would need and I'm not going to rule out exports for the LCA.

 

[randomradio]

Perhaps but if the GoI/IAF commits to 150+ LCA from their line then I don't see what more incentive they would need and I'm not going to rule out exports for the LCA.

If you are expecting a private line for Mk2, then it is possible.

 

[Taygibay]

From what I was told, a number of journalists have the information but were told not to print that yet.

Well, here with a source of Parik and my own cues and Abingdon joining the fray,
we gave a bracket from 90 bare minimum to roughly 200-240 or more. So you know!

And when a source says don't reveal numbers, it usually means : -"Please leak this to the public!"
To keep secrets, the best solution is to shut one's big trap. It's not an overlook! Never is!

Have a great evening, Tay.

 

[Abingdonboy]

And when a source says don't reveal numbers, it usually means : -"Please leak this to the public!"
To keep secrets, the best solution is to shut one's big trap. It's not an overlook! Never is!

The notion that some in the Indian media are keeping the "true" figure "secret" would require them to have a modicum of integrity so.....

 

[Taygibay]

^^^ Oh! Shocking! ^^^​

If you must be both lucid and sarcastic, be a gentleman and do that behind closed doors!

 

[Armani]

I did argue the Mark2 case of LCA with my source and he spilled some more which i had not posted before...

Well seems in a review of LCA progress DM MP asked few pointed questions. This meeting was chaired by multiple teams not only just HAL.

The main point asked by DM MP was after LCA Mark1A test flight and handover for production, how long will the whole team take to come out with Mark 2. Members seems to have suggested that a committee be formed to evaluate the timelines and manpower requirements for the additional line requirement.

DM MP cut them short and said in 6 years at 16 jets a year this order is finished so after Mark 2 should start production from the same line without any downtime. The members still suggested they require a more detailed view and committee to be formed for assessing the realistic dates and plan to be presented to DM.

They suggested that a new jet requires far more testing from prototype phase and thus requires thorough analysis by a committee.
.
DM MP then seems to have asked how long will the committee take to submit the report which people replied about a year.

DM MP did not say anything on this after all this discussion.

This is as per source and i did nt put that in original post owing to the fact that within a week after that Saab people had sent feelers to DM MP via a specific BJP CM that Gripen NG can be produced in 3 years from now under MII and can take care of LCA Mark 2 needs with Indian specific customization. In short Indian side requirements could be met outright and Mark 2 project can be put aside.

DM MP has still not made any decision and is consulting some other senior members (PM NaMo and FM AJ) on this..

So I refrained from posting it here previously.

I cannot tell you how much I hate the word "committee". It is another name for "death spiral". Things (like time, resources & money) only go into it, nothing comes out. Our projects only suffer as a result. It is a first-hand evidence for the existence of gravitational waves & black holes.

So the only line that appears 'finalized' so far is the Rafale, and that's good. Both IAF & IN need the Rafale so as soon as you can get those coming, the better.

We need to be damn careful when it to comes to making use of all these other potential technology-providers. I call these the "MMRCA Rejects". I feel that a second MMRCA line (one of the rejects) needs to be set up, but only if that setup is going to give us benefits that even Dassault wouldn't give. Because keep in mind, by starting this production line we're actually doing the Rejects a favour like no other. So when the Rejects say that they will have India getting 24-40 jets a year, but will keep all the integration-contracts and tech within themselves and Boeing India, I'd say F it. Boeing is just looking to offload the SH to someone - they know they can't milk it any further, all of their allies have decided to enter the Lockheed death-spiral (F-35) instead. So whatever they're offering now is out of desperation. And I know, if it wasn't for the US government interference, Boeing would even be okay with transferring atleast 90% tech to local contractors. They are that desperate.

They ain't getting a piece of the US fighter cake worth their weight (F-22, F-35 went to Lockheed, it also seems very likely that F-X and F/A-XX will also be lapped up by a Lockheed-Grumman competition much like YF-22 & YF-23 competition) now it's only logical they'll try to find huge markets somewhere else. But the benefits they're offering aren't worthwhile at all...but I must admit that this "ASH" (Advanced Super Hornet I reckon) could make use of the International Roadmap technologies. It may even have been somewhat lucrative for both IAF & IN if it wasn't for the tech-business that won't win any favors from the Govt. or industry.

Good thing is that the forces actually seem to be taking the Govt.'s side on the matter, if it was any other country any other time, the forces would have been like "I just want my fighter, I don't care about what you or the companies will get".

--

Now coming to the Gripen, yes it seems a better alternative than F-16 any day. But if it's arrival is going to spell doom for LCA Mk-2, I'd keep it away. Unless the Swedes actually market the NG Gripen AS the Tejas Mk-2. You see what I'm suggesting? @randomradio Really depends on how far the Swedes are ready to take the tech-transfer, but I'm sure India alone would buy more Gripens than rest of the customers combined. Might be far-fetched sure, but I for one am sure that HAL will take it's sweet time making the Tejas Mk-2...we'd be inducting it alongside the FGFA if they have their way. At that point as you said everyone will be asking them to concentrate on AMCA, stop beating a dead horse. And what happens to the numbers? Who knows.

I think I shouldn't even be surprised if a Gripen-looking plane crawls out of HAL/Private hangar and they start calling IT as the Tejas Mk-2.

--

I'm sorry but has the concept of building two Rafale lines in India been discussed already? Under different lead-integrator if possible? I'm sure it was, but I don't see this concept making any headway at Govt.-level. Maybe I missed something. I know Rafale negotiations have already gone through a lot of murk trying to deal with the integrator issue, but we do need jets in very large numbers. Let the main line handle IAF orders at maximum capacity (under Reliance) and the second line take care of Navy+exports and some for IAF if needed. I'd think this second line would easily cross 150 jets production so it might be justified.

 

[randomradio]

Well, here with a source of Parik and my own cues and Abingdon joining the fray,
we gave a bracket from 90 bare minimum to roughly 200-240 or more. So you know!

If you simply go by the earlier MMRCA deal and the current IN requirement, it is 126+54 minimum.

If you speculate overall requirement in total, it is 100-150 for IN and 300-350 for IAF.

If you introduce the second line for MMRCA, then IAF reduces to 200.

If you increase IAF squadrons from 42 to 50, then IAF stays at 300-350, even with the second MMRCA line.

So the decision depends on money right now.

And when a source says don't reveal numbers, it usually means : -"Please leak this to the public!"
To keep secrets, the best solution is to shut one's big trap. It's not an overlook! Never is!

Have a great evening, Tay.

The information is not a military secret because the journalists already know. They just don't want the numbers revealed to the general public before contract is signed or maybe a little while after.

But competitors should already know about it or the Boeing official wouldn't have said-
"If India wants to jump start an aerospace economy, do you want to do that with Dassault -- that’s about a $5 billion company -- or do you want to do that with Boeing, which is a $97 billion aerospace company?" Jeff Kohler, vice president of global sales for Boeing’s defense unit, said in an interview on Monday in Singapore.

The information came from a French MoD or SAFRAN source to a forum member, and that forum member is a military pro, so... it's not good to break trust.

And numbers can change because Rafale is an expensive plane and cost is a major factor.

Now coming to the Gripen, yes it seems a better alternative than F-16 any day. But if it's arrival is going to spell doom for LCA Mk-2, I'd keep it away. Unless the Swedes actually market the NG Gripen AS the Tejas Mk-2. You see what I'm suggesting? @randomradio

This second line, if they decide to go for it, won't be as important as the Rafale line.

I think the earlier plan was to induct at least 240 LCAs. And now the MoD may simply decide to induct 120+ Mk1A and 120+ Gripen NG and get it over with. That's the number of Mig-21s that have to be replaced.

The remaining could be covered with the Rafale, including the IN requirement.

The third line is possible only if the Mig-35 is selected.

IAF need 475.

Case 1: With only Rafale line.
LCA Mk1A = 126
LCA Mk2 = 126
MKI = 40
Rafale = ~180

Case 2: With Rafale and Gripen line, because the Mk2 was delayed.
LCA Mk1A = 126
Gripen NG = 126
MKI = 40
Rafale = ~180

Case 3: A third line is possible only if the squadron strength increases by 8 more or if older aircraft are phased out early, the 63 Jags and 63 Mig-29s.

The best scenario is Case 1.

IN needs 150 jets.