There is a way bro.. If we commit say a much bigger number like 288 and production like an example
in Indian MII line 14-16 birds a year for entire 208 jets 13 squadrons in 13 years
and from Merignac line 14-16 birds a year.. for 5 years 80 jets 5 squadrons
It is not yet known if IAF has shown interest in the LCA Mk2
No, the companies in question, like Dassault, will have executive powers over the production. It won't be under HAL. So such contracts can be signed in 2 years or less. Especially if Modi stays in power for the next 3 years.
2 years for a deal as complex as 126 jets to be made in India? No way sir. These things are very very complex and will have so many issues to be addressed that it would take 3 years minumum. However this is without factoring in the selection process. I'm assuming in this "second MMRCA" that multiple candidates would be considered and thus there would have to be an entirely new set of technical evaluations done by the IAF both in India and abroad. And then the cost negotiations will begin with the MoD and then the contract will be signed and then the delivery period will take over- it's going to be a very lenghty process:
Selection process (2 years- using MMRCA as a base)
Contract negotiations- 2-3 years
Delivery period- 3 years
That's 7-8 years for the FIRST bird to enter Indian service, so if this process was started tommorw it would not be before 2023 the IAF got its first "second MMRCA" but we all know that the MoD/IAF won't kick off any "second MMRCA" for at least a year (when the Dassualt/Rafale MII part is all signed up) so we are looking at 2025-6 as the earliest the FIRST "second MMRCA" can be in service and this is with the most optimistic timelines. It just doesn't seem logical on any front-cost, speed of induction, sense, long term ownership, ease etc etc
MMRCA was primarily delayed because of HAL. The new Rafale deal is almost done in just 1 year, including modified configuration like uprated engine. The Make in India component will start after IN makes a commitment for Rafale-M.
I don't think it's fair to blame HAL entiely, there was also quite a lot of time lost because of divergent views on offset obligations, workshare etc etc
Besides 42 sqd number is practically not possible for 2027 unless we do dynamic things..
And even that figure is deemed too low. According to the Standing Parliamentry commitee on defence the figure should be 45 SQNs by 2025 to meet a combined Pak/China threat. Fat chance of getting anywhere close to that unless something really innovative is thought up.
Thus a cheaper Indian aircraft if its possible like you said Light Stealth Aircraft should be encouraged.. Israeli folks just said based on lavi they want us to model AMCA.. may be used Israel only for the Stealth Aircraft and create a product where unit cost is under USD40-45 Mn.. a bit higher than LCA USD 30.. It solves our purpose much better,,
No new projects will be in service quick enough to address the SQN depletion bro.
The Rafales are not expensive. The MMRCA deal came at less than $120M for each Rafale. This new deal will bring the total cost to less than $100M. The LCC cost of the Rafale was $300M.
The total production cost of 126 Rafales in MMRCA was $15B, not including the HAL's cost increase. If we assume Dassault will sell us the Indian Rafales at the new rate, then 120 Rafales over the next 10 years will cost only $12B. Misc expenses will be extra, like bases.
According to Picdel, the unit cost of a Rafale in the new deal is Euro 70M.
The issue is people are stupid. They think we have to pay the 40 year cost of $300M immediately. F-35 is facing the same stupid belief that the govt has to pay more than $1T right away, even though the cost of the existing fleet over 40 years is far more expensive, two or three times more.
Superbly stated which shows that there is little need for a second MMRCA- at least not on cost grounds. The only reason to go for a second MMRCA is for speed of induction and I'm sure Dassualt (and its Indian partner) would come up with some plan to capture that mulit-billion USD business and not lose it to a competitor.