Populism on IMF and interest rate hikes
Populism around the rupee and interest rate must be avoided as it can jeopardise the IMF programme and undermine the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) autonomy. The previous government had brought the IMF programme to a halt by its populist policy of freezing fuel prices in March, which took the country near default.
The outgoing finance minister has done much-needed work and reforms to get the IMF programme back on track. These efforts must not be wasted by artificially fixing the currency price and asking the SBP in public gatherings to cut policy rates. The government must act on what the country committed, including a market-determined exchange rate.
Additionally, the new economic team must engage with the IMF to ease some tough conditions, particularly related to inflationary revenue sources. With a priority focus, the new finance minister, as he has already indicated, must sit with the IMF for relief in the ongoing programme.
As floods have washed out almost 10pc of last year's GDP, the revenue target must be revised accordingly. At the very least, the IMF should be convinced to cut it by 10pc, leading to a revenue target of Rs6,723 billion for FY23 instead of Rs7,470bn. The majority of the cut must be aimed at petroleum levy and electricity prices which will significantly ease inflationary pressure.
Fixing currency price by freezing impact of economic fundamentals
A market-based exchange rate functions only when changes are caused by market or economic fundamentals. If speculations or sentiments start to play a larger role or begin to influence currency deviation, the situation becomes very dangerous and has a negative effect on the effort to establish an efficient market-based exchange rate.
Efforts to get the rupee back its worth must not be confused with not letting economic changes pass on to the PKR and fixing the currency price. There are fears that the approach to stabilise the currency shall be the same as the one taken in 2013-2017, in which dollars were injected into the market and an artificial exchange rate was created.
This has a serious long-term impact on the economy, and hence should be avoided. The exchange rate is the price of currency and like any other prices, it is damaged if distorted.
Policies undermining the SBP's autonomy
While arresting the rupee’s fall, the new finance minister must work with the SBP as managing the exchange rate is a core responsibility of the central bank. A close collaboration between monetary and fiscal policy must be ensured. But any policies that bypass the SBP or compromise its autonomy must be avoided.
After the SBP Amendment Bill, 2021, which granted full autonomy to the central bank, it becomes the SBP's responsibility to come up with a mechanism or a framework to pre-empt speculative pressures on the rupee and make independent decisions about the policy rate.
The new finance minister must strengthen the SBP so that there is no perception of unduly intervention of the finance ministry in the SBP’s roles.
The new finance minister has a much better environment than his predecessor did.
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