CV-18 Fujian - Type 003 Aircraft Carrier News & Discussions

[LKJ86]

Via 舰船知识

 

[Figaro]

Big shrimp Pop3 says the PLAN is planning for 10 carriers by 2035. I assume not 10 operational but 10 total, including those in service and fitting out/undergoing sea trials. Very impressive.

 

[english_man]

Big shrimp Pop3 says the PLAN is planning for 10 carriers by 2035. I assume not 10 operational but 10 total, including those in service and fitting out/undergoing sea trials. Very impressive.
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That is very impressive if true.............and it will mean a great deal of work has to be done by the Chinese, to accomplish having 10 Carriers by 2035. Upto now it was considered that China might have 6 Carriers by then. I presume to meet the target of 10 Carriers they will have to settle on a particular design of carrier, then build several of those as it would be easier and quicker than building a few different classes. Btw:- thats the first time for a while that i have heard "pop3's" name mentioned!

 

[PeacefulWar]

I have some doubts about 10 carries.
China don't project power globally.
10 is an overkill.

 

[flowerfan2020]

I have some doubts about 10 carries.
China don't project power globally.
10 is an overkill.

Why do you think China don't project power globally? Not now doesn't mean not in the future.

 

[sheik]

Big shrimp Pop3 says the PLAN is planning for 10 carriers by 2035. I assume not 10 operational but 10 total, including those in service and fitting out/undergoing sea trials. Very impressive.
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Indeed. The advantage of the China's much lower cost in weapons development and manufacture is huge, and the quality is almost as good as the US now. The only things we need is time and patience, although every one in the mainland cannot wait to see the final reunification of the great country.

Why do you think China don't project power globally? Not now doesn't mean not in the future.

China is not interested in overturning foreign governments or promoting her values. However, she must have enough military power to protect her citizens and assets overseas as well as the international transportation lines.

 

[lcloo]

2035 is 15 years away. Pop3 gave hint that the 4th ship will be build soon, so building the other 6 ships is possible if two shipyards build a carrier each at the same time.

Using multiple locations to cut steel, fabrication of modules and final assembly, the steel cutting plant work for 2 years for each ship, then transfer the cut steel to a fabrication yard to build up the modules for another 2 years, and move the modules to a dry dock for final assembly (1 year). The times mentioned is assumption based on CV003/XX's progress in JNCX shipyard.

So, 6 ships will take up 12 years of steel cutting plant's time, 12 years in the fabrication yard, and 6 years of the dry dock's time. So if there is no disruption, building 10 ships by 2035 is possible. As per Pop3 this is PLAN's planning, though politics and the intensity of military threat from foreign countries may decide if this ship building will proceed as planned.

 

[lcloo]

So, 6 ships will take up 12 years of steel cutting plant's time, 12 years in the fabrication yard, and 6 years of the dry dock's time. So if there is no disruption, building 10 ships by 2035 is possible. As per Pop3 this is PLAN's planning, though politics and the intensity of military threat from foreign countries may decide if this ship building will proceed as planned.

I made an error on above statement because I assumed there is only one steel cutting plant, one fabrication yard and one dry dock. Since Dalian and JNCX will be building aircraft carrier, there should be at least 2 of each.

So the cutting plant in JNCX will take up around 6 years instead of 12 years.

Assume work starts in 2021
1. Steel cutting plant will work from 2021 to 2022, 2023 to 2024, 2025 to 2026 for three ships.
2. Fabrication yard work from 2023 to 2028 (2 years each ship)
3. Dry dock work from 2025 to 2029 ( 1 year each ship)
4. Out fitting (2 years each ship) work from 2026 to 2031.
5. Sea Trial (2 years each ship) work from 2028 to 2033.

Looks like a very tight schedule, so they have to work hard and fast and no major mistake will be allowed.

The manufacturing plants and dry docks are more than several dozens in China, the above mentioned steel cutting plants/ fabrication yard/dry docks refer to those dedicated for navy ships only (as example, the fabrication yard at the new harbour basin in JNCX and Dry dock #4.)

Edit: to include the 4th ship, one of the shipyard will have to build 4 new aircraft carriers instead of 3. The below schedule is on expedited time basis, with fabrication of modules started before all steel plates are cut and shape formed, this is like "Just-In-Time" manufacturing method practice in automobile manufacturing where zero/minimum WIP stocks are kept.

Finally, all above are just my two cents, please don't take them as if they are official.

 

[obj 705A]

I have some doubts about 10 carries.
China don't project power globally.
10 is an overkill.

The carriers are not for projecting power against helpless nations, it is for providing air cover for Chinese DDGs in far away regions (eg: the far parts of the Pacific, the mediterranean, the Indian ocean etc..) in order to secure the trade routes with Latin America , Africa etc.. against the USN, if a Chinese DDG is targeted by US aircrafts armed with long range missiles (ie: beyond the range of the HQ-9) then China's warships will be like sitting ducks without air cover.

A long time ago I said China will match the USN in the future but pessimists kept on saying "Naaaah no way" , I have been proven right on this issue now.

 

[Tiqiu]

Words are two 003 type ships are being built in Jiangnan right now. The building of the first ship of 005 type will soon be started in Daling, so next year the world will see 3 carries under construction.The use of modular construction approach coupled with floating dry dock transportion makes building multiple carriers possible and faster.

005 is certainly nuclear, but 003/4 are uncertain. I am inclined to believe they are as 2025 is the year that Chinese Navy achieves its strategic pivoting to deeo blue sea.

 

[obj 705A]

A long time ago I said China will match the USN in the future but pessimists kept on saying "Naaaah no way" , I have been proven right on this issue now.

Same thing goes for DDGs, previously whenever I said China is gonna have more than 100 DDGs somewhere between 2030 & 2040, pessimists would say "Naaah no way China doesn't need that much, protecting Chinese coast is enough" well to those people I say.. I assure you it's only a matter of time before a big shrimp says "China plans to have 120 DDGs by 2035" just like what happened now with aircraft carriers.

 

[samsara]

Words are two 003 type ships are being built in Jiangnan right now. The building of the first ship of 005 type will soon be started in Daling, so next year the world will see 3 carries under construction.The use of modular construction approach coupled with floating dry dock transportion makes building multiple carriers possible and faster.

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005 is certainly nuclear, but 003/4 are uncertain. I am inclined to believe they are as 2025 is the year that Chinese Navy achieves its strategic pivoting to deeo blue sea.

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If what you posted above is proved to be true by the next year, then Minnie Chan from the South China Morning Post will also be proved as true as well, on her latest article about China's carrier built-up!

Then some active members here as well as those at the other neighbourhood forum will need to apologize to Ms. Chan for what their strong characterizations of her

Time will tell, within the next 12 months or earlier

 

[PeacefulWar]

The carriers are not for projecting power against helpless nations, it is for providing air cover for Chinese DDGs in far away regions (eg: the far parts of the Pacific, the mediterranean, the Indian ocean etc..) in order to secure the trade routes with Latin America , Africa etc.. against the USN, if a Chinese DDG is targeted by US aircrafts armed with long range missiles (ie: beyond the range of the HQ-9) then China's warships will be like sitting ducks without air cover.

A long time ago I said China will match the USN in the future but pessimists kept on saying "Naaaah no way" , I have been proven right on this issue now.

Yes, that's why I think 6-8 is the best number.
China don't have oversea bases, our main focus is still near sea and SCS.

 

[obj 705A]

Yes, that's why I think 6-8 is the best number.
China don't have oversea bases, our main focus is still near sea and SCS.

Africa and Latin America are not located in the SCS, Latin America is on the other side of the Pacific, the US has 60% of it's fleet in the Pacific and the USN will probably have a total of 13 CVNs so for securing the trade routes to Latin America China needs to have 8 aircraft carriers just for the Pacific, then comes the task of securing the sea based trade routes to Africa, the USN has the remaining 40% in the other half of the earth, so China will need some aircraft carriers for that region too.

 

[lcloo]

If you look beyond 2035, China will likely overtake US in economy as well as military. This is the one big reason why US is desperately waging trade war and political containment with the aim to stop China's ascension.

These aircraft carriers are meant to be deployed for periods from 2030 to 2060 and beyond. Thus we cannot use current geopolitical affairs to ponder how they will be used. This planning takes some serious brain-storming in CMC and Chinese think tanks, and we are not the ones to judge whether this CV building program is correct or not as our view beyond 2030 is very limited.