samsara
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I gonna present in consolidated form some latest interesting posts by members at SDF for our own discussion here, at PDF -- colored emphasis is mine.
(Temstar):
There seems to be a lot of rumours floating around on CJDBY that a second 003 is on the books and in fact construction may already be under way at Jiangnan Shipyard. Some say there are modules at Jiangnan that looks like they could be pieces of another 003 hull but I don't have a CJDBY account to see the photos for myself, anyone?
Here's a fresh thread on this topic just today [20201207]: https://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2671466
I also read this piece last week that hinted at the same thing, although I don't think that's all that strong of a statement:
Six 055 would run against POP3's claim that 14th Five Year Plan calls for building of 8 new 055, and AFAIK also 5 additional 075 instead of 3 claimed here. So take it with a grain of salt.
That said there doesn't seem to be any visible movement on 004 aside from expansion of facilities at Dalian. So if there were plan to build two carriers ASAP (given geopolitics at the moment) than another 003 would make sense. It would also fit with PLAN tradition of building new design a pair at a time. What do we think?
(Higgle):
Anything from fzgfzy we can take with a grain of salt. Anything from the National Interest we can take with a bucket of salt. I would believe pop3 over whatever that article claims any day of the week.
That said, fzgfzy has some interesting claims here (even though none of them have proven accurate so far):
1. Prep work in Dalian for CVN construction facilities still underway (as expected).
2. Second 003 possibly under construction in Shanghai. This is unexpected as we all thought a second 003 (if there will be a second) would be built in Dalian.
Now, what stood out to me was this section:
[Alternate translation of above line: "For the same 003, in the case if there is another one, it may probably be already started. As I have said previously (15 years ago), this matter in Shanghai is not a property division of Jiangnan family. Therefore, in the case if there is a second one, it might probably be under progress."]
Anyway, I wouldn't put too much faith in his claims. But he does float some interesting ideas, some of which have proven correct in the past, whether by coincidence or not.
(Tam):
HDZ's Changxing facility is right next to JNCX. In fact, its not clear where Jiangnan [JNCX] ends and HDZ begins. Its possible that the dock where the 003 is sitting on, is on HDZ's slice of the island, due to the CMA CGM containerships and the large LNG carriers that were contracted to HDZ being right next to 003. It may not matter that much since both are in the same CSSC, now CSG, banner, so they maybe sharing facilities and resources. It can be possible that some modules are being made in the HDZ Changxing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HDZ: Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding (Group) Co., Ltd
CSSC: China State Shipbuilding Corporation
CSG: China Shipping Group
Changxing: Changxing Island, located in the mouth of the Yangtze River to the north of urban Shanghai (app. 5 km), an island within Shanghai Municipality
It always teases my thought WHERE's the role of DALIAN shipyard after the CV-17 -- I already questioned that in my earlier post quite some time ago. Will the large and experienced shipyard be sitting idly in the China's carrier endeavor? I just don't think so. Seems now some light is starting to come out... expect to learn something within the 1H 2021, or even sooner.
Then the notion of the SECOND 003 -- it's just quite logical if China really wanna build its carrier fleet. If China only builds one after another, it will take very long time to build the needed size of carrier fleet. And what a waste of resource if every factor is already there to build more, but then proceed so slow by just building one by one... it simply takes too long time and not comes into senses! Not even the reasons as articulated by some here or there that due to the completely new design... China needs to complete one first, try, operate, get the feedbacks... complete the cycle then just proceed with the next... how many decades then to build a sizeable carrier fleet if so???
Well, well... the 2021 will definitely be the fascinating year to witness...
(Temstar):
There seems to be a lot of rumours floating around on CJDBY that a second 003 is on the books and in fact construction may already be under way at Jiangnan Shipyard. Some say there are modules at Jiangnan that looks like they could be pieces of another 003 hull but I don't have a CJDBY account to see the photos for myself, anyone?
Here's a fresh thread on this topic just today [20201207]: https://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2671466
I also read this piece last week that hinted at the same thing, although I don't think that's all that strong of a statement:
China is Working Hard to Become a Navy Superpower
The USN became the world’s largest, most powerful navy at some point during World War II, and has held that position without serious challenge since.
nationalinterest.org
Six 055 would run against POP3's claim that 14th Five Year Plan calls for building of 8 new 055, and AFAIK also 5 additional 075 instead of 3 claimed here. So take it with a grain of salt.
That said there doesn't seem to be any visible movement on 004 aside from expansion of facilities at Dalian. So if there were plan to build two carriers ASAP (given geopolitics at the moment) than another 003 would make sense. It would also fit with PLAN tradition of building new design a pair at a time. What do we think?
(Higgle):
Anything from fzgfzy we can take with a grain of salt. Anything from the National Interest we can take with a bucket of salt. I would believe pop3 over whatever that article claims any day of the week.
That said, fzgfzy has some interesting claims here (even though none of them have proven accurate so far):
1. Prep work in Dalian for CVN construction facilities still underway (as expected).
2. Second 003 possibly under construction in Shanghai. This is unexpected as we all thought a second 003 (if there will be a second) would be built in Dalian.
Now, what stood out to me was this section:
"Regarding the second 003, if it exists, difficult to say if construction's started, *as I mentioned previously (in 2015), that modules are not manufactured solely by JNCX.* So if there is a second, it's possible it's already being constructed."对于同级003,这个如果有的话,搞不好已经开了,我之前(在15年吧)说过,上海这事不是江南一家产分段的。所以如果有第二条,可能应该巳经产了。
[Alternate translation of above line: "For the same 003, in the case if there is another one, it may probably be already started. As I have said previously (15 years ago), this matter in Shanghai is not a property division of Jiangnan family. Therefore, in the case if there is a second one, it might probably be under progress."]
Anyway, I wouldn't put too much faith in his claims. But he does float some interesting ideas, some of which have proven correct in the past, whether by coincidence or not.
(Tam):
HDZ's Changxing facility is right next to JNCX. In fact, its not clear where Jiangnan [JNCX] ends and HDZ begins. Its possible that the dock where the 003 is sitting on, is on HDZ's slice of the island, due to the CMA CGM containerships and the large LNG carriers that were contracted to HDZ being right next to 003. It may not matter that much since both are in the same CSSC, now CSG, banner, so they maybe sharing facilities and resources. It can be possible that some modules are being made in the HDZ Changxing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HDZ: Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding (Group) Co., Ltd
CSSC: China State Shipbuilding Corporation
CSG: China Shipping Group
Changxing: Changxing Island, located in the mouth of the Yangtze River to the north of urban Shanghai (app. 5 km), an island within Shanghai Municipality
It always teases my thought WHERE's the role of DALIAN shipyard after the CV-17 -- I already questioned that in my earlier post quite some time ago. Will the large and experienced shipyard be sitting idly in the China's carrier endeavor? I just don't think so. Seems now some light is starting to come out... expect to learn something within the 1H 2021, or even sooner.
Then the notion of the SECOND 003 -- it's just quite logical if China really wanna build its carrier fleet. If China only builds one after another, it will take very long time to build the needed size of carrier fleet. And what a waste of resource if every factor is already there to build more, but then proceed so slow by just building one by one... it simply takes too long time and not comes into senses! Not even the reasons as articulated by some here or there that due to the completely new design... China needs to complete one first, try, operate, get the feedbacks... complete the cycle then just proceed with the next... how many decades then to build a sizeable carrier fleet if so???
Well, well... the 2021 will definitely be the fascinating year to witness...
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