The decision has already been made to absorb Crimea into the Russian federation, according to some undisclosed Kremlin source quoted in this article (Gazeta.ru is usually quite credible).Declaration of independence appears to have been merely part of the bigger plan. The process is expected to be complete by March end if this is to be believed
Крым войдет в состав России в качестве республики - Газета.Ru | Политика
Google translation
Tacit decision on the annexation of Crimea to Russia has been taken at the highest level in the Kremlin, according to sources of "Gazety.Ru". Crimea, is likely to be adopted in the Russian Federation as a republic, which will use the two official languages: Russian and Crimean Tatar.
On Tuesday, the Supreme Council of Crimea took an unexpected decision at first reading: a declaration of independence. According to official reports, spoke in support of the document 78 of 81 MPs who took part in the vote.
The declaration reads: if in the referendum on March 16 residents of the republic express a desire to join Russia, Crimea will be declared "independent and sovereign state with a republican form of government." After this, the new"independent and sovereign state" will appeal to Russia to join its territory as a new subject.
The basis for this will be Russian-Crimean interstate agreement.
The preamble to the Declaration of the Crimean parliament cite provisions of the UN Charter "and a number of other international instruments recognizing the right of peoples to self-determination", as well as the decision of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo from July 22, 2010, according to which the Declaration of Independence, adopted in Kosovo authorities in 2008, did not violate international law. So, sending a clear signal, the authors of the Declaration of Independence of the Crimea, state it also does not violate international law.
This step has a clear goal, and solves two problems.
First - by tying the declaration of independence of the Crimea to the results of the referendum Moscow, according to a source close to the Kremlin, will demonstrate to the West under what scheme it intends to proceed. Second - if the Crimean plebiscite decides on accession to Russia, and then the republic declares 8tself "an independent and sovereign state", which has the right to enter into international agreements, the Russiasn do not have to change domestic legislation relating to the formation of new subjects of the Federation.
As already reported by "Times", the current Russian legislation provides for the adoption of the new subject of Russia only in one case: if there is a relevant international agreement. Obviously, neither the current Ukrainian government whose legitimacy Moscow has not recognized or any future president of Ukraine, would never initiate the agreement for the "transfer" of the Crimea. That is why the Russian parliamentarians began to generate ideas on how to avoid potential treaties with Kiev.
About two weeks ago, the leader of "Fair Russia" party Sergei Mironov introduced to the State Duma a bill under which "land" of another state can be incorporated into Russia in the absence of relevant international agreements. The basis for the accession of new territories, according to Mironov, could be either the result of a referendum on the "disconnected" territory or state authorities handling these "lands" to Russia to accede.
Novels Mironov does not seem useful.
Through the self-proclaimed independence of the Crimea and the possible recognition of the new state by Moscow, Russia would avoid the need to change its own legislation. Kremlin logic is that Crimea as an independent state, can directly conclude means that a treaty of accession to Russia.
The question is whether the Russian leadership has made the decision to join a yet Ukrainian sovereign territory to the Russian Federation.
"The decision is made - definitely yes," - says a source close to the Kremlin.
"The declaration of independence and linking it with the results of the referendum is a clear signal that the fundamental scenario in Moscow is one of Crimea's accession. This is precisely the ultimate goal "- said another interviewee to" Gazety.Ru ".
About the time period during which Moscow may formally decide on joining Crimea to Russia, opinions diverge among sources. "
The goal is to resolve this issue before the end of March," - said the source close to the presidential administration. Another source in the government, in contrast, argues that no timetable has been established. But I'm sure no one wants to delay the final decision, said another source close to the Kremlin.
"Scenario of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was different: Crimea still has our Black Sea Fleet."
According to the sources, Crimea is likely to be admitted to the Russian as a republic. And since republics, under the Constitution, are entitled to establish their own official languages, it is planned that Crimea will have two such languages: Russian and Crimean Tatar.