CPEC - stalled and lost momentum?

[Indus Pakistan]

Some good news guys. There does appear to be solid movement on the Western Corridor. As @PAKISTANFOREVER and @ghazi52 pointed out we have to give some more time for this to pan out. But the potential of the Western Corridor is enormous. Once built it will begin the supercharged development of Gwadar. I hope to one day not too far in the future to drive from Islamabad to Gwadar along A class roads. This may not be as distant as I thought. Minister Murad has really put his back into the Wetern Corridor. A quick summary of where we stand at the present -

• M-14 motorway from near Islamabad to Dera Ismail Khan is nearly completed and due to open in June 2021.
• Dera Ismail Khan to Zhob section will see work commence on dualizing it
• tenders about to be given for Zhob to Kuchlak/Quetta
• Planning on Gwadar to Quetta soon to be completed.

So it would look like about 5 years for CPEC Western Corridor to become a reality. That should began the consolidation and development of the vast regions of Pakistan on the Western flank of Indus. And make Gwadar a viable port connected to the entire Pakistan hinterlands including Afghanistan, Central Asia and Sinkiang China.

WESTERN CORRIDOR
RED M-14 About completed
BLUE Zhob Construct about to start
Broken Blue Planning completed [ smaller sections have already been built near Gwadar]

M-14 Motorway - Note the major bridge over Indus River near Mianwali is still not finished.

Zhob road being built. It will require major tunnels as it crosses into the Sulaiman Mountain range.

Listen to Communications Minister Murad under whose remit this falls. He also mentions additional motorway from Peshawar south to Dera Ismail Khan providing even more boost to the Western Corridor by complementing M-14.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Some good news guys. There does appear to be solid movement on the Western Corridor. As @PAKISTANFOREVER and @ghazi52 pointed out we have to give some more time for this to pan out. But the potential of the Western Corridor is enormous. Once built it will begin the supercharged development of Gwadar. I hope to one day not too far in the future to drive from Islamabad to Gwadar along A class roads. This may not be as distant as I thought. Minister Murad has really put his back into the Wetern Corridor. A quick summary of where we stand at the present -

• M-14 motorway from near Islamabad to Dera Ismail Khan is nearly completed and due to open in June 2021.
• Dera Ismail Khan to Zhob section will see work commence on dualizing it
• tenders about to be given for Zhob to Kuchlak/Quetta
• Planning on Gwadar to Quetta soon to be completed.

So it would look like about 5 years for CPEC Western Corridor to become a reality. That should began the consolidation and development of the vast regions of Pakistan on the Western flank of Indus. And make Gwadar a viable port connected to the entire Pakistan hinterlands including Afghanistan, Central Asia and Sinkiang China.

WESTERN CORRIDOR
RED M-14 About completed
BLUE Zhob Construct about to start
Broken Blue Planning completed [ smaller sections have already been built near Gwadar]

View attachment 714095


M-14 Motorway - Note the major bridge over Indus River near Mianwali is still not finished.

Zhob road being built. It will require major tunnels as it crosses into the Sulaiman Mountain range.


View attachment 714096

View attachment 714097


Listen to Communications Minister Murad under whose remit this falls. He also mentions additional motorway from Peshawar south to Dera Ismail Khan providing even more boost to the Western Corridor by complementing M-14.

Also in order for CPEC to fully materialize and to somewhat industrialize Pakistan, we need to lay the groundwork for all of this to be achieved and that will take some 10 years at least. That is why the energy and damn projects of CPEC are so immensely important.

 

[ghazi52]

“At all costs”: How Pakistan and China control the narrative on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Madiha Afzal



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China’s 15-year, $62 billion investment in Pakistan and the flagship project of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), took the five-decade long strategic alliance between the two countries to the economic sphere in 2015. CPEC is best seen as the economic peg in the wider strategic relationship between Pakistan and China.

While the plan’s details — the terms of the investments and loans, the full extent of the projects, and the overall cost to Pakistan — remain opaque, the Chinese and Pakistani governments have together zealously aimed to control and drive the narrative on CPEC, aggressively stamping out criticism.

Zhao Lijian, formerly China’s deputy chief of mission (DCM) in Islamabad, was a central character in China’s control of information on CPEC, hitting back against critics on social media from his perch at the Chinese Embassy. His success in that sphere saw him promoted to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, and he is now a key player in China’s “wolf-warrior diplomacy” on the coronavirus pandemic.

In Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government sought a reset of CPEC, which was seen as closely aligned with the previous government, when it came into office in 2018. It saw swift pushback from China and from Pakistan’s military, with the chief of army staff issuing a telling statement from a visit to Beijing: “BRI with CPEC as its flagship is destined to succeed despite all odds and Pak Army shall ensure security of CPEC at all costs.”

The U.S. Department of State has spoken out in recent months against what it sees as China’s predatory lending to Pakistan. It argues that the plan’s terms benefit Chinese companies and workers, and are unsustainable for Pakistan, leading to its rising debt burden. China and Pakistan have both pushed back concertedly on the criticism. The strength of Pakistan’s pushback is notable in the context of Pakistan’s improving relations with the U.S. since 2018 through the Afghan peace process, and its reliance on the International Monetary Fund.

In the end, the tight control of the narrative on CPEC by both China and Pakistan and a lack of transparency on its terms prevents proper accountability of the venture. It would benefit Pakistan to allow some transparency on CPEC that might pressure both parties to move to terms that are equally beneficial to Pakistan.


Madiha Afzal
David M. Rubenstein Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology

“At all costs”: How Pakistan and China control the narrative on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The tight control of the narrative on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by both China and Pakistan and a lack of transparency on its terms prevents proper accountability of the venture.

www.brookings.edu

 

[nahtanbob]

You should at least do a causual fact check before chucking out numbers. At least 33% of Pakistan's populations falls on the western axis. All of Khbyer Pakhtunkwa Province, Gilgit-Baltistan, westerly portions of Punjab Province [parts of Potohar Plateau including Islamabad Capital territory, Seraiki regions on western flank of Indus] all of Balochistan province. Refer to map below with a north-south axis line.

Eastern axis = Punjab + Sind
Western axis = NWFP (whatever it is called these days) + Baluchistan

The Eastern axis has Indus river waters. The Western axis has nothing comparable to the Indus river waters

 

[nahtanbob]

Some good news guys. There does appear to be solid movement on the Western Corridor. As @PAKISTANFOREVER and @ghazi52 pointed out we have to give some more time for this to pan out. But the potential of the Western Corridor is enormous. Once built it will begin the supercharged development of Gwadar. I hope to one day not too far in the future to drive from Islamabad to Gwadar along A class roads. This may not be as distant as I thought. Minister Murad has really put his back into the Wetern Corridor. A quick summary of where we stand at the present -

• M-14 motorway from near Islamabad to Dera Ismail Khan is nearly completed and due to open in June 2021.
• Dera Ismail Khan to Zhob section will see work commence on dualizing it
• tenders about to be given for Zhob to Kuchlak/Quetta
• Planning on Gwadar to Quetta soon to be completed.

So it would look like about 5 years for CPEC Western Corridor to become a reality. That should began the consolidation and development of the vast regions of Pakistan on the Western flank of Indus. And make Gwadar a viable port connected to the entire Pakistan hinterlands including Afghanistan, Central Asia and Sinkiang China.

WESTERN CORRIDOR
RED M-14 About completed
BLUE Zhob Construct about to start
Broken Blue Planning completed [ smaller sections have already been built near Gwadar]

View attachment 714095


M-14 Motorway - Note the major bridge over Indus River near Mianwali is still not finished.

Zhob road being built. It will require major tunnels as it crosses into the Sulaiman Mountain range.


View attachment 714096

View attachment 714097


Listen to Communications Minister Murad under whose remit this falls. He also mentions additional motorway from Peshawar south to Dera Ismail Khan providing even more boost to the Western Corridor by complementing M-14.

the photos of the roads in the mountains looks like a road to nowhere

 

[ACE OF HEARTS]

Gwadar needs to be connected to Quetta upto PESHAWAR through a Rail link.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

The Eastern axis has Indus river waters. The Western axis has nothing comparable to the Indus river waters

So I wonder what Khyber Pakhtunkwa Province [40 million] Gilgit Baltistan, western edge of Potohar Punjab, westerlky Seraiki Punjab, Balochistan drink?

Vodka?

Gwadar needs to be connected to Quetta upto PESHAWAR through a Rail link.

That is my exact point. Once [look below] is complete it will be a 'game changer' and create it's own dynamic.

 

[Indos]

The work on western route is in progress, may take 2-3 years. Not sure if this will change anything though. ML-1 probably 5-8 years away.

I dont think one needs 6 lanes motorway in western corridor looking at traffic.

Cities in north should forgot about competing with China/Viet in manufacturing. They cant even compete with Karachi even if ML1, Motorways are completed.

I will advice KP and Punjab gov to invest in IT infrastructure and education instead. Maybe so called CPEC SEZ’s not getting much investment is a sign for things to come.

Yup, you can see the comparison between Java island and Sumatra island to better understand the situation. The fact is businesses prefer to set up factory in Java where there are more people and more purchasing power than Sumatra, it is despite Sumatra infrastructure is not really bad and located next to Malacca Strait.

Industrial zone in Java get more utilization than in non Java. The tendency doesnt suggest that Indonesia should focus on Java forever, but to make the industrialization get more speed so we can safe much time, it is better to centralize the industrialization in the Java first, while keep opening more industrial zone in non Java islands step by step. This is why when we get huge gas field in Sumatra, the gas is then funeled into West Java, Indonesia manufacturing center.

Investment realization 2018 based on location. Jawa (Java) get the biggest despite it is a small island compared to others, but it is where the most people live and has higher GDP.

 

[Verve]

View attachment 714158

Western route is primarily for China, the real transport corridor. Low density and vastly scattered population. It is strategically important for China as mighty Indus is a natural defence barrier that will play a vital role when the inevitable war between Pakistan and India breaks. Reason for USA not leaving Afghanistan and focus of RAW/ISIS/BW on our Western half.

Eastern route is primarily for Pakistan with majority of the SEZs and local development. Chinese industry relocation here. High population density to fulfil staffing needs of new industries. You may not be aware but the big SEZs like Allama Iqbal SEZ in Faisalabad are fully sold out in last year and construction has really stepped up.

 

[Kabira]

Western route is primarily for China, the real transport corridor. Low density and vastly scattered population. It is strategically important for China as mighty Indus is a natural defence barrier that will play a vital role when the inevitable war between Pakistan and India breaks. Reason for USA not leaving Afghanistan and focus of RAW/ISIS/BW on our Western half.

Eastern route is primarily for Pakistan with majority of the SEZs and local development. Chinese industry relocation here. High population density to fulfil staffing needs of new industries. You may not be aware but the big SEZs like Allama Iqbal SEZ in Faisalabad are fully sold out in last year and construction has really stepped up.

Here is how Gwadar will make a difference to Pakistan GDP like Karachi does. Lets transplant millions people to Gwadar and see overnight change. Motorways, ML-1 are not going to make much difference to manufacturing in north when its port cities all over the world that lead and Pakistan only have 1. Current infrastructure is good enough from north to south.

Its not going to happen because first Pakistan will have to become a proper nation. Recently project to fence Gwadar for security was put on hold because nationalists in parliament cried.

 

[nahtanbob]

So I wonder what Khyber Pakhtunkwa Province [40 million] Gilgit Baltistan, western edge of Potohar Punjab, westerlky Seraiki Punjab, Balochistan drink?

KPK and Balochistan have 50 million people. The rest of Pakistan lives off the Indus river water system. That is at least 75% of the population

If CPEC was a meaningful economic project the focus will be on Karachi not Gwadar. Karachi serves the hinterland or heartland.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

KPK and Balochistan have 50 million people. The rest of Pakistan lives off the Indus river water system. That is at least 75% of the population

Well we see progress. You moved from, what was it 95% to 75% mashallah.

If CPEC was a meaningful economic project the focus will be on Karachi not Gwadar. Karachi serves the hinterland or heartland.

So you think US should have focused on one or two ports for it's entire trade? 220 million people country but just one port? Ff sakes even 50 million is average sized European country like France. That alone warrants Gwadar. And if you look at the map trade from upper Punjab could easily slightly tilt westwards as it moves south to arrive at Gwadar.

 

[nahtanbob]

Well we see progress. You moved from, what was it 95% to 75% mashallah.

So you think US should have focused on one or two ports for it's entire trade? 220 million people country but just one port? Ff sakes even 50 million is average sized European country like France. That alone warrants Gwadar. And if you look at the map trade from upper Punjab could easily slightly tilt westwards as it moves south to arrive at Gwadar.

The number of ports is determined by the geography and economics. If the people of Balochistan and KPK live in feudal backward system maybe one port is too many.

you keep dodging the main points - for CPEC to have a meaningful impact it has to involve the areas where people live currently

How many ports does the West Coast of USA have ? Break it down by traffic

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1355941074867421185

Pakistanis always say it will be South Asia's biggest airport but when you land there. The place looks like a dump.

I believe something was off about CPEC. It was started by PMLN and I don't they would have negotiated for the interests of the state of Pakistan. Rather they probably would have negotiated for the interest of their own pockets.

Rich powerful countries like China and corporations from such countries love doing business with corrupt people in 3rd world countries like Pakistan. Where it's easy to buy off the civil administration and others.

Even if CPEC is legit. Which I hope it is. It will still fall upon Pakistani people to leverage it for their own success. Just like the dam thread that was on here recently.

Does Pakistani qom have enough national ghairat like Turks whose dizileri they love watching??

I say yes and no. There are still enough honest, talented and hardworking people in Pakistan if given proper leadership and disciplined properly can do wonders. The problem are paindoo types, who want to do nothing but look busy.

The number of ports is determined by the geography and economics. If the people of Balochistan and KPK live in feudal backward system maybe one port is too many.

you keep dodging the main points - for CPEC to have a meaningful impact it has to involve the areas where people live currently

How many ports does the West Coast of USA have ? Break it down by traffic

In Chicago federal government built water projects and basic wharfs when population was below 10,000 threshold. Only a decade later the population reached 100,000 and trade and new industries and shipping traffic went through the roof.

13,000 ships and tugs passed through the lake michigan and Chicago River system onwards to the Mississippi river.

For how long wil lyou poor oppressed Israelis bemoan your poor ignored/oppressed little city?

I wonder if Karachiwalas will still be this pompous when 15 years later Gawadar surpasses you in affluence??

 

[Indus Pakistan]

you keep dodging the main points - for CPEC to have a meaningful impact it has to involve the areas where people live currently

Okay. A map will explain it for you. Red is for primary area and green for secondary area. Call this port hinterland. As you can see all of Balochistan, all of K-Pk, North Western Punjab including Islamabad capitol territory can easily fall into the Western Corridor. This is about 75 million people. Add into this Afghan transit trade and some, although very limited traffic from Chinese Sinkiang.

This is to get the ball rolling. In two decades potentially Central Asia could also be a market. And please note at least 75 million people live within the area I have marked on the map.

• North Western Punjab
• Khyber Pakhtunkwa
• Gilgit Baltistan
• Balochistan
• + Afghan transit trade

If this flies over your head then your just being difficult. In which case even if the darned thing thumped your head you still would deny it.