CPEC is a guarantee of a bright future for Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan

[the_messenger]

Not quoting to counter you, but this was the best post related to the question I had. I get a sense that there is a thought that CPEC will benefit Pakistan. I am hoping to understand how it will be a game changer or kick starter,

One thought is that having a trade corridor will bring in economic benefits. There are couple of ways that can happen either by taxing the trade or exporting goods and services.

For taxing, will trade via CPEC will be cheaper than existing trade routes to allow for tax?

For goods and services, what would be the profitable exports from Pakistan? Raw minerals and coal are what I see as low value exports because it wont generate sustainable wealth generation cycle. What else could be exported for profit to China?

If this discussion has already happened, please do have patience and point me to the relevant thread

CPEC so far has focused on the strategic infrastructure of Pakistan, I think.
They are Road, Rail Road, Electricity that uses local coal, Water Resource Management (dams).
They are the foundation in which everything is built.
Pakistan used to be a place with unstable electricity, without that there is no industry. Now, they are building industrial parks. The effect is well recorded: Pakistan exports are increasing.
Private companies will soon figure out what they can export, they always do.

 

[Understudy]

CPEC so far has focused on the strategic infrastructure of Pakistan, I think.
They are Road, Rail Road, Electricity that uses local coal, Water Resource Management (dams).
They are the foundation in which everything is built.
Pakistan used to be a place with unstable electricity, without that there is no industry. Now, they are building industrial parks. The effect is well recorded: Pakistan exports are increasing.
Private companies will soon figure out what they can export, they always do.

Thank you for your reply, I do seem to have much to learn. I understand some of the strategic aspects of it. On other two points.
I would think increased supply will support emerging industries and bring the power cost down. How much has the generation capacity increased by CPEC (or targeted to increase) ?
Is there an empirical data set that you are using to back your statement on exports increasing? Not questioning your statement just that I am curious to see if it is due to CPEC or organic increase due to hard work of Pakistani Industry.

 

[the_messenger]

Thank you for your reply, I do seem to have much to learn. I understand some of the strategic aspects of it. On other two points.
I would think increased supply will support emerging industries and bring the power cost down. How much has the generation capacity increased by CPEC (or targeted to increase) ?
Is there an empirical data set that you are using to back your statement on exports increasing? Not questioning your statement just that I am curious to see if it is due to CPEC or organic increase due to hard work of Pakistani Industry.

I can not remember the exact number, perhaps you could wiki them. I remember wikipedia has quite a detail list of electric generator factories that belong to CPEC.
You could google "pakistan export increase 2019", they are doing quite good, increase export, decrease import, lower deficit.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

Not quoting to counter you, but this was the best post related to the question I had. I get a sense that there is a thought that CPEC will benefit Pakistan. I am hoping to understand how it will be a game changer or kick starter,

One thought is that having a trade corridor will bring in economic benefits. There are couple of ways that can happen either by taxing the trade or exporting goods and services.

For taxing, will trade via CPEC will be cheaper than existing trade routes to allow for tax?

For goods and services, what would be the profitable exports from Pakistan? Raw minerals and coal are what I see as low value exports because it wont generate sustainable wealth generation cycle. What else could be exported for profit to China?

If this discussion has already happened, please do have patience and point me to the relevant thread

CPEC in Pakistan will include energy projects, infrastructure development, industrialization, and the expansion and improvement of Gwadar Port, build dams ... Thats analyses shows that CPEC has the potential to boost Pakistan's economy, making the country a regional economic hub as long as political stability, terrorism from india, other agencies those who are sitting in afg will not disturb CPEC.
Amecian plan with indian australia to threat China that they can block strait of malacca which is 75% of china's export and import route.Iif you have noticed india recently threaten Pakistan and moving its army and building infrastructure in Ladakh area and claiming that gilgit baltistan is their part soon they will capture which is not only direct threat to Pakistan but also to china's rout and economy plans, one of the reason China push india in that region.

 

[Protest_again]

mega billions $$$ corruption project................

pakistani poor will starve till next centuary by paying the chinks the loans .intrests.....what a game changer

i hope its not a change of map........................????expansions of china

Wait for IMF to take note of these extra loans. Let see how Imran pleas with them again for a waiver. But I don't see a realistic way for Pakistan to pay off these debts to China. They could be just about surrendering sovereignty to China for a long time to come.

 

[Understudy]

I can not remember the exact number, perhaps you could wiki them. I remember wikipedia has quite a detail list of electric generator factories that belong to CPEC.
You could google "pakistan export increase 2019", they are doing quite good, increase export, decrease import, lower deficit.

I could find an old link http://www.cpecinfo.com/archive/new...ent-in-12-energy-projects-under-cpec/ODM1Nw== it is quite interesting plan.
For exports data seems to be sparse. https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports does not show an increasing trend. Perhaps I am looking at wrong place.

CPEC in Pakistan will include energy projects, infrastructure development, industrialization, and the expansion and improvement of Gwadar Port, build dams ... Thats analyses shows that CPEC has the potential to boost Pakistan's economy, making the country a regional economic hub as long as political stability, terrorism from india, other agencies those who are sitting in afg will not disturb CPEC.
Amecian plan with indian australia to threat China that they can block strait of malacca which is 75% of china's export and import route.Iif you have noticed india recently threaten Pakistan and moving its army and building infrastructure in Ladakh area and claiming that gilgit baltistan is their part soon they will capture which is not only direct threat to Pakistan but also to china's rout and economy plans, one of the reason China push india in that region.

The second part of your comment is interesting, As you said, if current crisis is to impact CPEC then in all our analysis it would be unwise to exclude USA involvement. Would US and other western countries allow China to have a safe trade route? The other question, is what extent will China go to protect it's trade route?

 

[the_messenger]

I could find an old link http://www.cpecinfo.com/archive/news/china-made-total-$12-billion-investment-in-12-energy-projects-under-cpec/ODM1Nw== it is quite interesting plan.
For exports data seems to be sparse. https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports does not show an increasing trend. Perhaps I am looking at wrong place.


The second part of your comment is interesting, As you said, if current crisis is to impact CPEC then in all our analysis it would be unwise to exclude USA involvement. Would US and other western countries allow China to have a safe trade route? The other question, is what extent will China go to protect it's trade route?

Here are two statistic sites:
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/total-exports-growth/amp
Now that I have a chance to look at it, it's impressive in fact. Everything changed after 2017 - 2018

I noticed that the first site is actually your site , you should change the time frame to 5 years, or even 10 years

 

[Understudy]

Here are two statistic sites:
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/total-exports-growth/amp
Now that I have a chance to look at it, it's impressive in fact. Everything changed after 2017 - 2018

I noticed that the first site is actually your site , you should change the time frame to 5 years, or even 10 years

Yes, I did that. Not very granular data but good start I guess.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

I could find an old link http://www.cpecinfo.com/archive/news/china-made-total-$12-billion-investment-in-12-energy-projects-under-cpec/ODM1Nw== it is quite interesting plan.
For exports data seems to be sparse. https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports does not show an increasing trend. Perhaps I am looking at wrong place.


The second part of your comment is interesting, As you said, if current crisis is to impact CPEC then in all our analysis it would be unwise to exclude USA involvement. Would US and other western countries allow China to have a safe trade route? The other question, is what extent will China go to protect it's trade route?

China is growing no doubt it become factory of world now china is changing its roll from factory to retail now people who are already in business will resist, it will be interesting to see how China is going to react in future and old players like russia support china or not, Usa is old player with big block but countries have to protect their own national interest before they involve in anyones fight which i doubt anyone will unless its a common goal like india for whole south asia ,
Pakistan is protected and people of pakistan clearly said any threat to nation we make sure before they destroy us we will have upper hand, in this confrontation weak cannot survive which is rule of might is right anyways.

 

[Understudy]

China is growing no doubt it become factory of world now china is changing its roll from factory to retail now people who are already in business will resist, it will be interesting to see how China is going to react in future and old players like russia support china or not, Usa is old player with big block but countries have to protect their own national interest before they involve in anyones fight which i doubt anyone will unless its a common goal like india for whole south asia ,
Pakistan is protected and people of pakistan clearly said any threat to nation we make sure before they destroy us we will have upper hand, in this confrontation weak cannot survive which is rule of might is right anyways.

Good Information, would love to discuss this in some other thread. Trying to stick to CPEC on this thread. Just few thoughts, China's market is as of not not open. You cannot generate wealth in China and take it out of country. So until that happens it would be difficult for China to make that transition.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

Good Information, would love to discuss this in some other thread. Trying to stick to CPEC on this thread. Just few thoughts, China's market is as of not not open. You cannot generate wealth in China and take it out of country. So until that happens it would be difficult for China to make that transition.

Slowly but surely they bringing 1.4 billion people out of poverty.. they been doing good compare to countries like us who have been under heavy loans it just dont suit us anymore better to switch it.. cpec is part of it.