Country needs $82.5-bn investment in power to be developed one’

[Bilal9]

Countries which are developing now will not have the exact same development strategy as those developed countries who was developing in 1960s. They focused on heavy industry and metallurgy because that was the only path to transform a big or medium sized country from the subsistence agricultural economy to advanced economy.Then service sector was a tiny component of the economy, the world was not much integrated, world financial sector was much much smaller, information and communication technology was non existent. Now we have so many way to propel our growth. So, rapid flourishment of heavy industry is welcome, but that does not mean we can't achieve high growth without emphasizing it at least up to higher middle income status.We sure need heavy industry to become a fully developed country. Most of the countries which emphasized on heavy industry are rich in Iron, Coal, Oil etc(exception being Japan, South Korea but that was the time when they have no other choice other than to imitate other mineral rich countries). So the most logical path of them to set the development course was to go for heavy industry.

Currently how Bangladesh is trying to advance the economy with mix of industry(slow but steady push from labor intensive light and medium sized industry towards heavy industry), information and communication technology, retail sector, construction, service sector is looking good to me for at least another 20 years. India is 10 times larger economy than BD, plus rich in Iron ore and Coal, so they could focused on heavy industry from early stage despite being a very poor country. Because economic scale was there. Some bozos here are constantly comparing Indian economic set up with that of Bangladesh forgetting the size difference, resource endowment and other things.Or comparing the development course of Japan, South Korea and Germany forgetting the different timescale.To them heavy industry is the one and only path of Nirvana in this year of 2018.

Great write-up - Thanks.

Although I'd still posit that we need at least one nominal defense industry like Heavy Industries Taxila in Pakistan which boasts a specialized alloy foundry and heavy forging, rolling and steel plate forming expertise. That single organization has been crucial in supplying numerous Pakistani defense product lines, especially armor parts, even some for their naval and missile needs. Armor items production is one sector (other than naval vessels) where self-sufficiency is a desired factor for a nation our size.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Great write-up - Thanks.

Although I'd still posit that we need at least one nominal defense industry like Heavy Industries Taxila in Pakistan which boasts a specialized alloy foundry and heavy forging, rolling and steel plate forming expertise. That single organization has been crucial in supplying numerous Pakistani defense product lines, especially armor parts, even some for their naval and missile needs. Armor items production is one sector (other than naval vessels) where self-sufficiency is a desired factor for a nation our size.

I totally agree with you plus motor vehicle industry.

 

[Nilgiri]

High Defense spending is just tip of the iceberg of their so many Economic problems. If so, why they dont collaps right away a decade or two after the formation of Soviet union albeit at the time of Lenin and Stalin their defense spending is actually much higher compared to their gdp, the era of Brezhnev, Kurschev all the way till Gorbachev is a shy compared what Stalin spent for defense and Revolution matter.

https://nintil.com/2016/05/31/the-soviet-union-military-spending/

Just a matter of facts, actually North Korea which is still survived till now spent much of their economy resources toward defense compared to what Soviet had done in the past. But they just dont collaps right away

Spot on, but the guy is too stupid/ignorant to understand this.

Tip of icebergs are all such people have read about and latched onto and then they repeat themselves in circles.

Any actual analysis into the GOSPLAN spending structures and listen to just 1 - 2 appropriate lectures by friedman (if you are against reading a book) is more than enough for most laypeople to understand why the USSR failed fiscally (and then politically).....but again its just easier to latch onto some 1 or 2 minute soundbite you heard from someone else that did the thinking/filtering for you.

It is that lazy nature in BD people that @Mage and @bluesky have referenced....and reason why UK Bengalis literally have a 70% poverty rate.

 

[UKBengali]

Spot on, but the guy is too stupid/ignorant to understand this.

Tip of icebergs are all such people have read about and latched onto and then they repeat themselves in circles.

Any actual analysis into the GOSPLAN spending structures and listen to just 1 - 2 appropriate lectures by friedman (if you are against reading a book) is more than enough for most laypeople to understand why the USSR failed fiscally (and then politically).....but again its just easier to latch onto some 1 or 2 minute soundbite you heard from someone else that did the thinking/filtering for you.

It is that lazy nature in BD people that @Mage and @bluesky have referenced....and reason why UK Bengalis literally have a 70% poverty rate.

Why do you not answer the question what would have happened to say a capitalist country like US if it had spent 12-14% of GDP on defence spending since WW2?

Simply no economy can survive this level of resources being devoted to the military sector. A massive amount of fiscal and human resources was diverted away from the more productive civilian economy and hence the Soviet economic collapse(multi-ethnic nature mean the disintegration of the state as well).

Anyway, you are a moron who just regurgitates what he reads without any ability to analyse and form your own conclusions and so I am wasting my breath again.

 

[Nilgiri]

I think 60 GW is the target to achieve by 2041. It will pave the way to make BD developed country in future. I have calculated enough but closest it got is half way towards developed country. I think its not 60 GW but more than 100 GW is needed to be developed country by 2041. 120 GW to be more precise. Around 5000 kwh per person a year. As they are saying 24 GW is in process by 2021. By 2041 60 GW is very much possible. Yes things are slow in BD to build everything from ground.

No one quotes the "available rate" versus the "installed rate". It is always quoted as the latter, always has been and always will be.....because that is the actual threshold potential that carries the investment value.

You can check for yourself.....83 billion USD is proposed for 60 GW.

That is about in line with what India also figures (dollar per GW) for its more immediate 5 - 10 year goals:

https://www.ibef.org/industry/power-sector-india.aspx

Around 293 global and domestic companies have committed to generate 266 GW of solar, wind, mini-hydel and biomass-based power in India over the next 5–10 years. The initiative would entail an investment of about US$ 310–350 billion.

i.e about 4.4 times the GW amount of BD and at about 3.7 - 4.2 times the cost.

"100 GW or 120 GW" comes nowhere into the picture for BD given the minister quoted a relevant investment amount that is obviously connected to 60 GW (as installed capacity) in line with current regional/global trends price wise. No one quotes "available rate" simply because that is way more dependent on your transmission efficiency (which is variable) and the type of power production to begin with (say solar compared to gas compared to coal compared to nuclear) which is also very variable....thus nowhere easy to project in any kind of "will hold at todays availability ratio constantly".....just compare to any other major country's electricity network development if you want to confirm.

Quoting/projecting per capita kwH consumption at 2041 would have at least been less disingenuous by the minister (given that is more directly relevant to development given imports and actual availability rates improving with more direct solar etc).

No it will certainly not be 5000 kwH for BD....maybe around half that at best. Giving another 5 - 10 year chunk to see what actually materialises in the current crucial trajectory is way more relevant anyway.

I thought too especially given that 22billion of that have already been invested. But I’m kind of confused because there are no power cuts anymore in Bangladesh...

Well 22 billion amortised (integral over the last cpl decades or so) has given you around what ~15 GW of capacity right now? Thus projecting another 60 billion to get another 45 GW is not out of line....even accounting for replacement of obsolete and depreciation etc.

The minister is just stupid for saying this will make BD a developed nation....and also for projecting this timeframe when many things can happen in 25 years (both good and bad) as opposed to say 5 - 10 year chunk which is the general global standard for the sector.

@madokafc @Chak Bamu @Major Sam

Why do you not answer the question what would have happened to say a capitalist country like US if it had spent 12-14% of GDP on defence spending since WW2?

They didn't need to because they grew their economy by not having a socialist over-control/intervention burden on the most ridiculous things. Man you don't even have a basic clue about the (socialism, GOSPLAN induced) stagnation that set in during the Brezhnev era that forced the GDP spending on military to reach such levels just to keep up with the West (which "outsourced" to and benefited from free market forces for both the more mundane consumer demand goods and more complex RnD intensity goods).

You are just ignorant and stupid (I dunno, maybe you have some fetish for big govt since thats the whole BAL idea, leftist cockroach dweebs that they overall are)...and have not read even an iota on the actual subject....all of which one can expect from a janitor in UK ghetto type. Don't waste anymore of my time thanks.

@Skies @Centaur

 

[UKBengali]

They didn't need to because they grew their economy by not having a socialist over-control/intervention burden on the most ridiculous things. Man you don't even have a basic clue about the (socialism, GOSPLAN induced) stagnation that set in during the Brezhnev era that forced the GDP spending on military to reach such levels just to keep up with the West (which "outsourced" to and benefited from free market forces for both the more mundane consumer demand goods and more complex RnD intensity goods).

You are just ignorant and stupid (I dunno, maybe you have some fetish for big govt since thats the whole BAL idea, leftist cockroach dweebs that they overall are)...and have not read even an iota on the actual subject....all of which one can expect from a janitor in UK ghetto type. Don't waste anymore of my time thanks.

This reply is not for you but for neutral posters here to illustrate what a complete moron you are.

It was not USA versus USSR but USA + UK + France + Italy + Germany(80%) + Japan against the USSR pretty much single handed.

USSR could never have kept up with this combination unless it spent a huge amount of it's GDP to counteract the far larger economy of the Western block. Not to mention that the oil-rich Arabs were naturally allied with the West against the "godless" USSR.

You simply have no idea how unintelligent and clueless you really are.


PS - lol @ "stagnation that set in during the Brezhnev era that forced the GDP spending on military to reach such levels " as military spending was just as high during the 1950s.

 

[Doctor Strange]

No one quotes the "available rate" versus the "installed rate". It is always quoted as the latter, always has been and always will be.....because that is the actual threshold potential that carries the investment value.

You can check for yourself.....83 billion USD is proposed for 60 GW.

That is about in line with what India also figures (dollar per GW) for its more immediate 5 - 10 year goals:

https://www.ibef.org/industry/power-sector-india.aspx

Around 293 global and domestic companies have committed to generate 266 GW of solar, wind, mini-hydel and biomass-based power in India over the next 5–10 years. The initiative would entail an investment of about US$ 310–350 billion.

i.e about 4.4 times the GW amount of BD and at about 3.7 - 4.2 times the cost.

"100 GW or 120 GW" comes nowhere into the picture for BD given the minister quoted a relevant investment amount that is obviously connected to 60 GW (as installed capacity) in line with current regional/global trends price wise. No one quotes "available rate" simply because that is way more dependent on your transmission efficiency (which is variable) and the type of power production to begin with (say solar compared to gas compared to coal compared to nuclear) which is also very variable....thus nowhere easy to project in any kind of "will hold at todays availability ratio constantly".....just compare to any other major country's electricity network development if you want to confirm.

Ok, atleast it can be confirmed that less corruptions are taking place in this sector. The $ figures arent that out of place. I was worried about more and more spending with less return, which can be unsustainable in future. The non politicized bureaucrats are good overall. Many of the ministers are product of goon politics so we can keep them aside. What I understand is BD is presently keeping pace with its demand. 10-11 GW of top demand a day. I know this is so low compared to other countries. May be large scale industries arent setting that much and people arent spending too. These can be reasons of this low demand. If 12-14 GW is the demand they can easily produce out of 16 GW or adding some more installed capacity. There are some captive power stations also which supports their industries, some are connected to national grid some arent. So all calculations arent there. I know as demand rises they will keep on adding. Cant really say if it will reach 60 GW or 120 GW. But yeah going forward with atleast a figure in head is a good idea for domestic and international advertisement for investment and so on. From 4 GW to 16 GW in 10 years not that bad. Given all the ground work had to be done fresh.

 

[Skies]

thus nowhere easy to project in any kind of "will hold at todays availability ratio constantly"

Agree.

But in politics, may be a projection has to be taken as a projection.

Their (BAL) main aim is to make projection (bait) as the are claiming as a Aim a Target. It not necessarily has to be successful. After 2041, BAL wil say that, look we targeted and tried. Or may be after 20+ years, no one will bother what BAL promised in 2018. But BAL will get vote by making promise.

The way you being critical (unlike common people here) is great, but not necessary for BAL. Because most of the people will see the TARGET first, not efficiency/availability (which is subjected to evaluate later after finishing the projects) as you pointed out well.

So my suggestion to BD people is, do not listen to what BAL projects. Just ask for a fair election.

People are aware now, any other party wont dare to anything else but development. BAL has made people to think about development with many many promise. Now people will think in that way. But it does not mean BAL is only capable. With fair election and peace, more development is possible by other party.

Now BAL supporters will hate me more lol