Counter-thoughts! How Bharat can help stabilize Afghanistan

[Indus Pakistan]

I

What is Gwadar ; just a deserted port in Baluchistan

DO YOU KNOW about the water shortage in Baluchistan

That just rules out large scale industrialisation in Gwadar
and expansion of Gwadar

Okay boss I was asked by OP to give my input so here I am. So you think Gwadar is dry, news for you Chah Bahar is even more dry. Both are in Balochistan. One Iranian ( Sistan va Balochistan ) the other Pakistan ( Balochstan ) and both are just 100 miles apart as you can see from the map below. So water is a issue in the region not just Gwadar. However Pak has built a large dam that will cover Gwadar for the medium term. Furthermore both have problems with law and order. Ask the Iranian's how many boder gaurds get wasted because of drug smugglers etc. On both sides live the Baloch.

I am NOT even talking of the law and order problems

Once sanctions are lifted on Iran ; Iranian economy will take off

To a small degree. The American's are going to stay tight with Saudia and Isreal and that means Iran will still be looked at as the bad boy. So some improvement but don't expect miracles.

Iran has oil and Gas like DUBAI ; THEREFORE CHABAHAR will prosper
What has Gwadar got

True Iran has oil and gas but boss Gwadar has something that is even more potent then gas and oil - China. You see boss geography can a be a b*tch like you should know in India. The most effective and closest seaport to Western China is Gwadar. Having Western China as hinterland means Gwadar is potentialy way ahead of everybody else. The Afghan market is tiny. The real gold is the Chinese market. That is where Gwadar wins hands down. Have a look at the map below.

Boss the red line is the approx route from Kashgar ( Kashi ) in Chinese Sinkiang Uighur to Gwadar a distance of 1,500 miles. Most of the road infrastructure is already in place. The only issue is some sections need upgrading. KKH from Kashgar to Islamabad needs improving which off course the Chinese intend to do as part of the North South Economic Corridor. The red line in fact marks out the rough route of this corridor.

KKH - N-35

Khunjerab is on the Chinese border. Note the Chinese and russian script on the KKH or N-35

From Islamabad to Multan we already have world class grade separated 8 lane motorway as in M2, M3 and M4.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

This leaves the next section upto the Mekran coatel highway on the Arabian Sea. at the moment this section is normal National standard road but the good news is work is progress to build the motorway all the way to the coast.

Now your on the Arabian coast. good news here. We already completed the coastel highway some decade ago.

and bravo we are in Gwadar. The real thing that would lify this corridor to another level is when rail line is built which I expect in next two decades to be started. The road connection between Kashgar, China and Gwadar, Pakistan is at present being upgraded and now that the Chinese have thrown themselves into this I have no doubt this will take off. Gwadar will win hands down with the Chinese.

Reason? Simple first it is the shortest route from Kashgar. Kashgar is the terminus for Western China and in time with Central Asia. In addition because of strategic reasons the Chinese will go with Pakistan just to spite india. So as long as we have the Western china as hinterland it is win, win for us.

I tell you, these Chinese are smart. Decade ago when I heard about Chinese interest in Gwadar I thought what the hell is this backwater good for? Now the pieces of the puzzle are coming togather. These Chinese ...... smart !

That leaves the question over Afghanista. I expect Pak and india to do what they did before and compete. If Pak plays it's cards right we will come on top like we did in 1990s or at worse it will be draw. I hope and don't expect Pak allowing transit through Pakistan. We have geograhy on our side India has size on it's size. So let us see what happens but i am quite positive.

 

[MilSpec]

Having pro-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan doesn't and cannot hurt Bharat. This is due to puny population of Afghanistan (20 mil) compared to 1300 mil of Bharat. then a distance and "land bridge" away from Bharati borders.


Choice is yours.



peace to you all.


@Atanz, @Gufi, @Slav Defence, @Luftwaffe, @WebMaster, @Jungibaaz, @jaibi, @notsuperstitious, @Azlan Haider, @ajpirzada, @DESERT FIGHTER, @AgNoStiC MuSliM, @Jazzbot, @Jf Thunder, @Hyperion, @JonAsad, @Nihonjin1051, @cirr, @Cherokee @Donatello, @Genesis,

@Bamxa, @SarthakGanguly, @Cat Shannon, @Butchcassidy, @Norwegian, @Mr.UTurn, @GreenFalcon, @Syed.Ali.Haider,

@Joe Shearer, @scorpionx, @Irfan Baloch, @orangzaib, @jhungary, @Xeric, @Icarus,

Who do you identify as Pro-Pakistani elements?

 

[Umair Nawaz]

i just gives me so amusement when indians discuss geo-politics amongst them, the start their talk on wrong facts and build a complete strategy over it, like building castles in the air.

For indians; leave international relations and geo-politics listen to this song it fits well for u people.

 

[MilSpec]

i just gives me so amusement when indians discuss geo-politics amongst them, the start their talk on wrong facts and build a complete strategy over it, like building castles in the air.

For indians; leave international relations and geo-politics listen to this song it fits well for u people.

Yes you are 100% correct , Indians need to learn geo politics from Pakistan.
From the country which became Non-Nato ally with US in cold war and then got slapped by sanctions by the same.
Fought communism in Afghanistan and then became strategic partner with a communist China,
Built the Taliban, first country to recognize and promote them and then aided United state in war against the same taliban.
Became a non-nato partner on war on terror with United states and then got bombed for about 7 years by the it's top ally,

you are indeed right, these Indian don't anything about Geopolitics, we would thankfully stay away from such brilliant geo political outlook

@Atanz is the strategy going forward, being a transit state for chinese goods? You have had access to central asia for about 68 years now? how has that changed the fortunes of pakistan?

It's 'Bharatiya' if you mean 'Indian'. Bharati is a slang.

hahah, you are funny. you really thin people here care about slangs hurled towards India.

Looking at

India will prefer sinking money into Afghanistan to show a generation that they are the true friends and Pakistan is their enemy. With the border being so long it will be a burden on Pakistani armed forces who will have to face continuous guerilla war fare and border skirmishes.
@FaujHistorian @Atanz

How is that any different from what china did to India via Pakistan.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@Atanz

Gwadar and CPEC are definitely a boost to Pakistan economy but they alone
are not enough for Pakistani economy's revival

The maximum Transit fees that Pakistan can earn is 1.5 to 2 Billion dollars

That does not even cover the amount of interest that you will have to PAY to China
for the Power plants that China has promised as a part of CPEC

Remember the bulk of the Investment in the 46 billion figure is in the power sector

The Pakistani government has already promised a hefty 18 % to 20 % to China

Courting China with care - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

Pakistan will have to earn LOT more dollars to repay the interest on Chinese investments in CPEC

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

If Pakistan wants to truly help stabilise Afghanistan then it must leave it alone

As long as Pakistan keeps plotting against India and seeks to dominate Afghanistan
there will always be something interesting happening

Afghanistan looks at India because it just does not trust Pakistan

NDS and RAW can have a lot of cooperation

India must leave Afghanistan try not to involve.. help its people instead of Afghani..
its gonna be another problem and later they blame Pakistanis if they bring drug, kidnapping and terror. They sud help nepales people to have good life as 1.25 billion indian's have..

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@Atanz is the strategy going forward, being a transit state for chinese goods? You have had access to central asia for about 68 years now? how has that changed the fortunes of pakistan?
.[/QUOTE]

First and foremost you don't need to concern yourself about our health. You have 230 million people living in absolute povery and would suggest you focus on that then giving us lectures about our plans.

As regards to your question where did you read we had access to Central Asia for 68 years. Would that the Hindutwa school of international politics? Central Asia until 1991 was shut because of being part of Soviet Union.

The Karakorum Highway ( KKH ) was completed to Kashgar in China in 1980. However it was just a basic one way road that four wheel drive vehicles could handle. Only in the last decade has it been widened and even now work goes on because some sections in particular north of hunza are narrow and subject to rockfalls. The KKH is going to now recieve massive investment as part of North South Economic Corridor. Only then will Kashgar be easily within driving reach from Islamabad.

So to answer to your question only now are we moving into the final phase where access to Kashgar becomes practical. What we do with this is upto Pakistan. There is oppurtunity and we can seize and convert to our advantage great. Only time will tell but without doubt the oppurtunity will be there.

It is like India. You had access to the entire world market but only in the last two decades have you managed to tap some of that potential. This is a oppurtunity I am quite positive about the future. In fact I am loving one aspect of all this. The Chinese are secular and do not brook the Islamists in China. This will force our people to realise that the mullah is no good.

Notice you don;t hear any jihads against China or muppets moaning about our Muslim brothers in China. so this will sober up the Muslim Ummah dreamers. They will realise that this Islamic utopia is not just opposed by the west but even the Chinese brothers don't like it.

EDit: Please people why do you turns things into binary? I never said Pakistan should just go on vacation because of Gwadar. Gwadar is just one aspect but it can act as a pointer in the right direction or a catylist for further consolidation. It is not the end, it is just means to move forward.

Like any oppurtunity it is up to us how we use it. do we build on it or do we squaunder a oppurtunity.

 

[maxpayne]

Yes you are 100% correct , Indians need to learn geo politics from Pakistan.
From the country which became Non-Nato ally with US in cold war and then got slapped by sanctions by the same.
Fought communism in Afghanistan and then became strategic partner with a communist China,
Built the Taliban, first country to recognize and promote them and then aided United state in war against the same taliban.
Became a non-nato partner on war on terror with United states and then got bombed for about 7 years by the it's top ally,

you are indeed right, these Indian don't anything about Geopolitics, we would thankfully stay away from such brilliant geo political outlook
.

Well let me piece it up together. Pakistan joined US camp due to Indian aggression since independence thus for its own protection. When we saw US doesn't help, we left all treaties. In Afghan war, Pakistan has to save itself from warm water access conspiracies. It succeeded in it also though was beaten enough till years. We knew US will dump us but until then we got our objectives. Creation of taliban in Afghanistan was Afghans internal problem and when they brought peace in their area of control, Pakistan accepted them just like any other country would have done. In US WOT, whole world was against Afghans, so we have to respect general consensus of world. And for ur kind information, Pakistan still sees talibans as Afghanistan's internal problem but it know that they are the best option for Pakistan. Regards

 

[MilSpec]

Well let me piece it up together. Pakistan joined US camp due to Indian aggression since independence thus for its own protection. When we saw US doesn't help, we left all treaties. In Afghan war, Pakistan has to save itself from warm water access conspiracies. It succeeded in it also though was beaten enough till years. We knew US will dump us but until then we got our objectives. Creation of taliban in Afghanistan was Afghans internal problem and when they brought peace in their area of control, Pakistan accepted them just like any other country would have done. In US WOT, whole world was against Afghans, so we have to respect general consensus of world. And for ur kind information, Pakistan still sees talibans as Afghanistan's internal problem but it know that they are the best option for Pakistan. Regards

That's brilliant sense of geo politics - right?

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Well let me piece it up together. Pakistan joined US camp due to Indian aggression since independence thus for its own protection. When we saw US doesn't help, we left all treaties. In Afghan war, Pakistan has to save itself from warm water access conspiracies. It succeeded in it also though was beaten enough till years. We knew US will dump us but until then we got our objectives. Creation of taliban in Afghanistan was Afghans internal problem and when they brought peace in their area of control, Pakistan accepted them just like any other country would have done. In US WOT, whole world was against Afghans, so we have to respect general consensus of world. And for ur kind information, Pakistan still sees talibans as Afghanistan's internal problem but it know that they are the best option for Pakistan. Regards

You want a simpler answer

Here it is :

You wanted to dominate Afghanistan after 1989 and hence you created the Taliban

But 9 / 11 happened ; Afghanistan came out of your influence
and now you want to control it again

But it is going to be impossible

 

[Gufi]

How is that any different from what china did to India via Pakistan.

I did not expect that from you. There was no Chinese involvement in the relationship of India and Pakistan post independence. I do not think Indian strategy right now is wrong but the success it will have is very doubtful because of the era of peaceful relations pre 9-11 with Pakistan. In the end most of those in FATA and other areas of Pakistan have lived peacefully and their kin will be enough of a buffer. The capital and government in Afghanistan can not sway the people like in other countries where tribal law is more important.

 

[MilSpec]

@Atanz

First and foremost you don't need to concern yourself about our health. You have 230 million people living in absolute povery and would suggest you focus on that then giving us lectures about our plans.

As regards to your question where did you read we had access to Central Asia for 68 years. Would that the Hindutwa school of international politics? Central Asia until 1991 was shut because of being part of Soviet Union.

The Karakorum Highway ( KKH ) was completed to Kashgar in China in 1980. However it was just a basic one way road that four wheel drive vehicles could handle. Only in the last decade has it been widened and even now work goes on because some sections in particular north of hunza are narrow and subject to rockfalls. The KKH is going to now recieve massive investment as part of North South Economic Corridor. Only then will Kashgar be easily within driving reach from Islamabad.

So transit state?

I did not expect that from you. There was no Chinese involvement in the relationship of India and Pakistan post independence. I do not think Indian strategy right now is wrong but the success it will have is very doubtful because of the era of peaceful relations pre 9-11 with Pakistan. In the end most of those in FATA and other areas of Pakistan have lived peacefully and their kin will be enough of a buffer. The capital and government in Afghanistan can not sway the people like in other countries where tribal law is more important.

China has armed pakistan to the teeth with soft loans against whom?
It went to lengths of violating MCTR to do this, every thing from tanks, aircrafts ships, awacs, sams, BM's everything provided by China, to a country whose entire defense doctrine is based on India, and you think that was coincidental...

I don't see anything wrong in that, India has been kept engaged in a military rift with pakistan since decades, and china hasn't exchanged a bullet with India but still kept most of it's military engaged via pakistan.. That is a brilliant strategy, why shouldn't india try and replicate atleast say a 25% efficacy of the same strategy.

 

[HariPrasad]

But there is something called Karma! that happens to be the biggest Beeeaaaach so to speak.

Nice to see Pakistanis believing in law of Karma.

 

[Gufi]

China has armed pakistan to the teeth with soft loans against whom?
It went to lengths of violating MCTR to do this, every thing from tanks, aircrafts ships, awacs, sams, BM's everything provided by China, to a country whose entire defense doctrine is based on India, and you think that was coincidental...

your history of the relationship between India and Pakistan starts at partition and post partition and with the issue of Kashmir. China is to us as USSR was to you. And granted we have a doctrine based on India but that is because our relationship with India is very rocky and war is very probable.

That is a brilliant strategy, why shouldn't india try and replicate atleast say a 25% efficacy of the same strategy.

Because the dynamics are diffrerent. Where there was hate for each other post partition the case is not the same with Afghan Pakistan relations and with talks with taliban back there is a strong chance that the areas near Pakistan will be very pro Pakistan soon. Also India has lots of investments in Afghanistan which will be open targets, and you will have to deal with what nearly bankrupted America and brought USSR to its knees which it will not want to do. In the state of Afghan government failing, the grip of Pakistan will just get stronger.