Could India's Military Really Crush Pakistan? TLDR; Nope.

[SQ8]

Despite of all the bluster by some Indians Politicians on exhibit, most people in the know are quite sane. That's why there have been no large scale confrontations initiated by India even after some provocation. The cold and hard fact of the matter is "Deterrence Works."

This has led to feeling of impotency and inadequacy on Indian side where some think having X times bigger than Pakistan and have Y times better weapons would somehow help them cover up their deficiencies hence the large military budget of India which we really can't afford. It's a case of misplaced priorities.

Now I am a proud patriotic Indian and am contributing directly to betterment of India than legions of dumb sheep you see populating the twitter and other internet forums but I don't want my country to suffer as it does when having Hyper-expensive foreign jets are a higher priority then building schools and hospitals.

What can India do when God Forbid we have another Mumbai 26/11 or Kandhar Hijacking ?

The sad truth is nothing, as any military aggression will be quickly countered by Pakistan by tactical nukes. They have the capacity and it would be a folly to assume they won't use it. End result would be massive loss of life and no tangible gains.

The only option two options for India and Pakistan:

1. Remain in a perpetual state of cold war with no change of status-quo on Kashmir. Spend ton of money on defense while more than half of your population lives a sub-human life.

2. Negotiate and solve the Kashmir issue whatever it takes. Finalizing the LOC as IB is the most feasible and reasonable option. All we need are two Brave and Patriotic leaders on both sides who would have courage to do what's best for their country. After that we can be friends or go our separate ways without having to watch our backs.

Mr. Modi is an intelligent man and now is the time when he has maximum political capital to take a courageous step before he looses the political capital which would inevitably happen. I wish that he sits on the table with Mr. Shariff and Pakistan Army both. Pakistan would greatly appreciate this as less tension with India would leave it free to deal with TTP and other extremists it is fighting

The problem with the Y times is that the nuclear weapons ruin any and all calculations into that matrix. The only possibility is the removal or negation of Pakistan's nukes and that too is a very far fetched diplomatic manoeuvre that would require a nuclear disaster in a major power and then an attack on Pakistan by a third party. All flights of fancy so far.

In the event that there is another terror attack does take place, the best that can be hoped for is an airstrike and that too did not play out well in the aftermath of 26/11. Since the relative superiority of the IAF only works in an all out conflict and in a limited strike it could very well be outnumbered and possibly out gunned as well by the PAF on its own turf.
Even if that does go through, what guarantees that there will not be a retaliatory strike launched that starts off a greater tit for it.
Any assumption that just an aerial conflict or naval blockade will work is based on sheer idiocy that assumed that it will not give a good excuse for Pakistan to launch pre-emptive offensives into India or resort to nuclear blackmail to negate it.

That leaves those two options and the third.
3. Fuel social unrest in Pakistan and pay back the terror in the same coin whilst keeping pressure on the eastern front via regular skirmishes and shelling(which the IA can afford). In a warmer "cold war" if you will in the hope that Pakistanis economy and social suffering causes a major collapse or change that at the very least focuses the extremism and terror inward rather than toward India. This has the danger of triggering the clause laid ambiguous in Pakistani doctrine that a serious destabilization of Pakistan by India will trigger a nuclear war..but the greyness in that leaves it a safe bet for now.


For now, it seems that this is the policy being followed. Regardless of possible ramifications later, there is little indication that there is any intent to resolve issues by either side by compromising their demands.

 

[Spectre]

The problem with the Y times is that the nuclear weapons ruin any and all calculations into that matrix. The only possibility is the removal or negation of Pakistan's nukes and that too is a very far fetched diplomatic manoeuvre that would require a nuclear disaster in a major power and then an attack on Pakistan by a third party. All flights of fancy so far.

In the event that there is another terror attack does take place, the best that can be hoped for is an airstrike and that too did not play out well in the aftermath of 26/11. Since the relative superiority of the IAF only works in an all out conflict and in a limited strike it could very well be outnumbered and possibly out gunned as well by the PAF on its own turf.
Even if that does go through, what guarantees that there will not be a retaliatory strike launched that starts off a greater tit for it.
Any assumption that just an aerial conflict or naval blockade will work is based on sheer idiocy that assumed that it will not give a good excuse for Pakistan to launch pre-emptive offensives into India or resort to nuclear blackmail to negate it.

That leaves those two options and the third.
3. Fuel social unrest in Pakistan and pay back the terror in the same coin whilst keeping pressure on the eastern front via regular skirmishes and shelling(which the IA can afford). In a warmer "cold war" if you will in the hope that Pakistanis economy and social suffering causes a major collapse or change that at the very least focuses the extremism and terror inward rather than toward India. This has the danger of triggering the clause laid ambiguous in Pakistani doctrine that a serious destabilization of Pakistan by India will trigger a nuclear war..but the greyness in that leaves it a safe bet for now.


For now, it seems that this is the policy being followed. Regardless of possible ramifications later, there is little indication that there is any intent to resolve issues by either side by compromising their demands.

I think China is taking care of the third option by supporting and stabilizing the Pakistani Economy.

As for fueling unrest in Pakistan by using proxies, it is possible that there is support to BLA but Pakistan is well placed both economically and militarily to handle it, just like we are handling the Maoists and NE separatists.

I don't believe we are supporting TTP, as it can very easily turn into a millstone around our neck. If there was any real evidence for that support than Pakistan can very well destroy India's reputation internationally as we would then be linked Heinous acts of terrorism in Peshawar and elsewhere.

Real issue boils down to two points from Pakistan's side:

1. Kashmir referendum even if its a legitimate demand, No Indian Politician would go for it as it would be akin to committing political suicide. As it is any intellectuals from people in AAP to Arundhiti Roy are quickly branded as traitor for even hinting at it. I won't go into Indian demands for pre-condition to referendum to be followed as its not possible for Pakistan to do it due to trust deficit.

2. Anti India Mindset: There have well stated concerns from Indian side that for Pakistan Defense Establishment to maintain its hold Pakistan it is imperative that India exists as a clear and present danger and any effort made at rapprochement by civilian govt would hence be scuttled by Pakistani Military and associated agencies. I am neither qualified nor sure enough to comment on validity of these concerns but they seem to be the commonly held view by Indians.

 

[OrionHunter]

Agreed 100%.
However, the interesting bit is, that let's imagine both India and Pakistan had their current levels of conventional capability, but neither of them possessed nukes.
So my question is, would India hesitate to attack or damage Pakistan in the same manner as implied in your above post?
What i mean to say is, that contrary to many published articles and so on and many members here, Nukes do seem to have leveled the geo-strategic equation in the sub-continent....and the biggest beneficiary of that is Pakistan.

Yes, agreed! Nukes are a deterrent. It evens out the asymmetry in conventional force levels. But even if both countries had not possessed nukes, the cost of a full scale conventional war would have been economically prohibitive for both countries.

However, Kargil-like operations/skirmishes would have been possible. But here, India would have had the edge due to a favorable combat ratio.

 

[Gauss]

I've figured that Pakistanis like to talk about war and things related to conflict so much because they don't know anything else. Don't know economics, don't know physics, don't know biology etc etc.
The ones who have the qualifications also usually don't know much. Here people have tried to invalidate evolution theory on basis of what happens inside a cell. Evolution is a grand theory of life. Its independent of minuscule details of life just like other grand theories are independent of minuscule details. For example we say 'living things live' but few humans killing themselves don't invalidate this assertion. Similarly whatever happens inside the cell has no bearing on the theory of evolution. Same arguments can be built for other disciplines to prove that even after qualifications Pakistanis don't know their stuff. So they find solace in war and conflict.

 

[Kompromat]

In our cold start doctrine, We do not target complete destruction but we intent to incapacitate Pakistan from fighting further.

Just a crazy thought. What if Pakistan bombs the crap out of Delhi with conventional ballistic missiles. They are not going to result in any gigantic collateral damage nor will result in the destruction of any High Value Targets (HVTs) however it will prove to be a trump card, signaling that Pakistan receives Indian attack as an unacceptable escalation of conflict?

 

[PoKeMon]

Just a crazy thought. What if Pakistan bombs the crap out of Delhi with conventional ballistic missiles. They are not going to result in any gigantic collateral damage nor will result in the destruction of any High Value Targets (HVTs) however it will prove to be a trump card, signaling that Pakistan receives Indian attack as an unacceptable escalation of conflict?

Beep Beep -- Ballistic missile is coming over..

30 nukes delivered to unknown pakistani sites...

Silenceeeee............

Is there a way to figure out whether incoming missile is conventional and not nuclear? Or India will wait for it to implode on Delhi first?

 

[Kompromat]

Beep Beep -- Ballistic missile is coming over..

30 nukes delivered to unknown pakistani sites...

Silenceeeee............

Is there a way to figure out whether incoming missile is conventional and not nuclear? Or India will wait for it to implode on Delhi first?

Exactly, the point of my post was to highlight the fragile nature of 'threat perception' that is mutual to battle commanders on both sides.

I've figured that Pakistanis like to talk about war and things related to conflict so much because they don't know anything else. Don't know economics, don't know physics, don't know biology etc etc.
The ones who have the qualifications also usually don't know much. Here people have tried to invalidate evolution theory on basis of what happens inside a cell. Evolution is a grand theory of life. Its independent of minuscule details of life just like other grand theories are independent of minuscule details. For example we say 'living things live' but few humans killing themselves don't invalidate this assertion. Similarly whatever happens inside the cell has no bearing on the theory of evolution. Same arguments can be built for other disciplines to prove that even after qualifications Pakistanis don't know their stuff. So they find solace in war and conflict.

You are on a DEFENSE forum.

 

[PoKeMon]

Exactly, the point of my post was to highlight the fragile nature of 'threat perception' that is mutual to battle commanders on both sides.

Threat is overhyped, as per your own comment they are just maintaining a "controlled" conflict.

I've figured that Pakistanis like to talk about war and things related to conflict so much because they don't know anything else. Don't know economics, don't know physics, don't know biology etc etc.
The ones who have the qualifications also usually don't know much. Here people have tried to invalidate evolution theory on basis of what happens inside a cell. Evolution is a grand theory of life. Its independent of minuscule details of life just like other grand theories are independent of minuscule details. For example we say 'living things live' but few humans killing themselves don't invalidate this assertion. Similarly whatever happens inside the cell has no bearing on the theory of evolution. Same arguments can be built for other disciplines to prove that even after qualifications Pakistanis don't know their stuff. So they find solace in war and conflict.

When gazni, gaznavi, taimur, babar and so are the real heroes, what else can be expected?

They are looking for the same glory through war, while world have moved from swords.

 

[Kompromat]

Threat is overhyped, as per your own comment they are just maintaining a "controlled" conflict.

When gazni, gaznavi, taimur, babar and so are the real heroes, what else can be expected?

They are looking for the same glory through war, while world have moved from swords.

It will be good for both countries to have a crisis management mechanism.

 

[Lord ZeN]

Pakistan can crush India. Not vice versa.

Indeed. India is nothing is front of professional PA.

 

[Rusty]

Threat is overhyped, as per your own comment they are just maintaining a "controlled" conflict.



When gazni, gaznavi, taimur, babar and so are the real heroes, what else can be expected?

They are looking for the same glory through war, while world have moved from swords.

And Indian heroes are there Arian invaders who invented Hinduism to enslave native people of India by making themselves Brahmins.

Indian are obsessed with hero worshiping these aryan invaders.

 

[Storm Force]

The Military balance in the sub continent is possibly about to change over the next 15 years.

All things being equal most western think tanks, investment houses and economists predict an indian GDP that over takes France & UK in next 5 years. That's around $3.2 trillion gdp

By 2030 AT OVER $6 trillion GDP india will definitily have the 3rd most powerful economy in the world.

Surely to god this means tremendous uplift in india,s military capability both conventional & nuclear.

THERE IS NO WAY in the world that the conventional Gap and nuclear GAP wont go massively in india,s favour.

Already we are seeing just the beginning of this with introduction of weapons Pakistan cannot hope to possess.

be it

Aircraft carriers
indengious nuclear subs
C17 transports
ICMB
$1 billion dollar destroyers like kolkatta

If the current defense spend is 5 -1 in india,s favour or the conventional GAP 2-1 I AM PREDICTING this changing to
10-1 IN DEFENSE SPEND advantage by 2030 AND A CONVENTIONAL GAP near 4-1 .

Whislst Pakistanis may argue we have growth prospects and china corridor etc the simple fact is india is the fastest growing top 20 NATION in the world the projections are universal

Already india has achieved $2.2 trillion as predicted in this forum only 4 years ago.

The STATUS QUO will not last and those thinking india has no options and Pakistan can do what it likes for ever are badly misguided and not understanding the global change in world order OR more likely trying to ignore this fact and scenario.

 

[Rusty]

The Military balance in the sub continent is possibly about to change over the next 15 years.

All things being equal most western think tanks, investment houses and economists predict an indian GDP that over takes France & UK in next 5 years. That's around $3.2 trillion gdp

By 2030 AT OVER $6 trillion GDP india will definitily have the 3rd most powerful economy in the world.

Surely to god this means tremendous uplift in india,s military capability both conventional & nuclear.

THERE IS NO WAY in the world that the conventional Gap and nuclear GAP wont go massively in india,s favour.

Already we are seeing just the beginning of this with introduction of weapons Pakistan cannot hope to possess.

be it

Aircraft carriers
indengious nuclear subs
C17 transports
ICMB
$1 billion dollar destroyers like kolkatta

If the current defense spend is 5 -1 in india,s favour or the conventional GAP 2-1 I AM PREDICTING this changing to
10-1 IN DEFENSE SPEND advantage by 2030 AND A CONVENTIONAL GAP near 4-1 .

Whislst Pakistanis may argue we have growth prospects and china corridor etc the simple fact is india is the fastest growing top 20 NATION in the world the projections are universal

Already india has achieved $2.2 trillion as predicted in this forum only 4 years ago.

The STATUS QUO will not last and those thinking india has no options and Pakistan can do what it likes for ever are badly misguided and not understanding the global change in world order OR more likely trying to ignore this fact and scenario.

Conventional military doesn't mean much when nukes are involved. Remember, all it takes is one nuclear hit on a major city.
And Indians always seem to forget that Pakistan is also projected to be in the next 20 of economies. So it's not like we will be twiddling our thumbs while India's economy grows.

Finally, we also have a strong ally in china who is also at your border. Do you really think China will stand by and let India obliterate Pakistan?

 

[Storm Force]

Rusty nobody is talking obliteration

But this notion that the 7th largest GDP nation today india soon to be the 3rd most powerful GDP nation cant do anything in case of a state sponsored Mumbai attack is RUBBISH.

The economic gap and military gap is growing in india,s favour.

having nukes means nothing.

South Korea pisses all overt north korea even though North has nukes.

WITHOUT ECONOMIC POWER YOU ARE NOTHING

 

[Rusty]

Rusty nobody is talking obliteration

But this notion that the 7th largest GDP nation today india soon to be the 3rd most powerful GDP nation cant do anything in case of a state sponsored Mumbai attack is RUBBISH.

The economic gap and military gap is growing in india,s favour.

having nukes means nothing.

South Korea pisses all overt north korea even though North has nukes.

WITHOUT ECONOMIC POWER YOU ARE NOTHING

1. Who said Pakistan has no economic power? Was it Modi?
2. Nuclear wound mean EVERYTHING!!! You must be delusional to think they don't. The sad truth is that on the event of more Mumbai attacks, India still would not be able to do much to Pakistan militarily, even if India becomes a galactic supa dupa pawa.
3. You must not know anything about north and south Korea relations. N. Korea is always attacking south Korea, but SK can't do jack.