Humble Analyst
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A good honest analysis of the situation.1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean
US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.
2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean
US has comprehensive package to move away from China's CPEC which included Nuclear deal, Military aid and building up of conventional military capability.
So far Pakistan has been shunning US' offer and proceeding with China's offer on CPEC.
This is very alive and kicking.
3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean
China's aggressive foray into South Asia has made India doubt China's intentions and India for now has decided to stay away from the Chinese proposal
4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean
US-Myanmar (military leadership) détente, Improving India-Myanmar relations and the subsequent election of US leaning Aung San Suu Kyi to power has for now dampened Chinese interest but this is still a very viable option.
5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean
and
6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean
Kra Canal is still on the table and China has good relationship with Laos. It needs to be seen how much US & India could influence Thailand.
This very much on the table.
7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean
This has been traditional controlled by US and hence China is looking at alternative routes.
China has a lot at stake so the supporting or trying to sabotage China's plans will define the friendship or animosity between the countries and China. So far China has been one of the major country who has avoided direct proxies with rivals. However with the other players being very active, China will guard its interests. So far India has been pushing Pakistan all the way through lobbies (mostly in US, EC and using Israeli friendship), buying weapons to block Pakistani purchases (US, France and Russia). The current attitude of India pushes Pakistan into corner yet helps Pakistan to redefine its partners and helps strengthen its ties with Beijing. India is getting too heavy handed with Pakistan like trying to block the sale of JF 17 to Sri Lanka. This does not help when Pakistan is blocked financially and on defense procurement. Will India give up its animosity towards Pakistan and act wise? In my opinion as long as hawks are defining the policies in India this won't happen. India is trying to stop CPEC and going on collision course with China and Pakistan instead of becoming a part of it. I think if India does not change its very aggressive policy towards Pakistan the region will face unwanted consequences as India has pushed Pakistan to the wall and working against China heavily.