Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[Tshering22]

Trade brings prosperity , one who controls it becomes powerful. US is not walking away , they will do what the british empire did. One reason why US is powerful is bcos of dollar. Now you weaken it , you are reducing their strength. Chinese now compete with US for power & influence.

China is the reality. US will only emulate what the British did and won't succeed. Tell me something; you are a US businessman used to making stuff in China at a fraction the cost you'd get in US. Your company is worth billions. Now you have an informal group of other such people. Do you really think the POTUS will have the courage to pressure you and other industrialists to bring back the production facilities from China and Vietnam and lose funds for their political parties?

Maybe a few tokenisms but nothing more.

But if china weakens or get stuck in east sea it will give breathing support to India in north east. A uncontained china after some time will come after India. Remember Tibet, India kept quiet then we finally became the victim. Indias intention is not to beat china in their own backyard but to ensure that they get stuck there.

And it is being done. No doubt. However, NATO gets the impression that we are going to be their 'allies' in using force and military to cage China; which is not going to happen.

Being from a border state directly now with China, I understand the importance of not letting them go scott free. The thing is, Chinese respect position of power; they don't appreciate pacifism. If you are pacifist, you will get pushed around no matter how calm you are. But if you respond in the same key to some level, maybe 6 times out of 10 times, then they will not threaten you again and will engage with you respectfully.

No such thing, might is right. China happily indulges pakistan,korea,cambodia..etc now they simply cannot walk away from it. Every country will use their own strength and for countries in SCS blocking sea lanes is their strength.

They are doing what US does, only at a smaller scale. But how long it will work, no one can say this.

Take a look at the map of SCS , china is coveting territories which are way far from mainland. They are simply behaving like a colonial power. If oil is found in SCS then whole region will be on fire.

Even if they want, they cannot take these territories without suffering international issues. Building islands is not illegal under any law yet, so they will build it.

With a weakening US, China will enforce its way in Southeast Asia. No doubt about that.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

We aren't going to substitute all imports just the Chinese ones, the gap can be filled with the combination of Indian production and imports from more friendly and reciprocal countries.

I am sure China does not have a monopoly on any single tech or resource that the west cant provide. We already get Uranium and other critical resources from Australia and others. We are manufacturing best of automobiles ourselves. We are self sufficient in pharma and it. Only thing China has an edge on is consumer electronics, steel and some other durables which can be subsituted reliably from other sources

Infact China does not invest all that much in India when compared to Japan and others.

best of automobiles... hahahhhhahahahahhhahahah

where does India stand in telecom hardware, semiconductors, railroads, etc? You can import some - not all - from the west. But then you are completely at their mercy. Right now, having the ability to import from China means that both Chinese and western companies have to compete for India's attention. Boycott China? China loses nothing - we are top trade partners of 100+ nations, India is not even a consideration. But what does India lose? The ability to bargain. The west can name the price and you will accept it or go without, that simple.

Being from a border state directly now with China, I understand the importance of not letting them go scott free. The thing is, Chinese respect position of power; they don't appreciate pacifism. If you are pacifist, you will get pushed around no matter how calm you are. But if you respond in the same key to some level, maybe 6 times out of 10 times, then they will not threaten you again and will engage with you respectfully.

You might look Chinese as a Northeasterner, but you don't think like a Chinese. You think like an Indian and it shows. Who do Chinese respect?

Thailand, Sweden, Germany, Russia, Pakistan, Singapore and even Philippines (pre-2010) to some degree. How many of them are "engaged" against China? How many of them are aggressive, warlike nations?

Who do Chinese dislike and look down on?

Vietnam, Japan, India, North Korea, current Philippines.

What do all these have in common? You try to "engage" us and "respond" to imagined provocations.

The Chinese mentality is "lmao bring it bro". Mao has clearly stated this policy: 人不犯我我不犯人，人若犯我我必犯人。Don't mess with me, I don't mess with you. You mess with me, I mess you up.

This has been shown over and over again, and I'm surprised you haven't learned the lesson after 1962. You mess with us, we will fucking destroy you so hard you'll be writing books about it 50 years later... guess that came true.

 

[911]

The Chinese mentality is "lmao bring it bro". Mao has clearly stated this policy: 人不犯我我不犯人，人若犯我我必犯人。Don't mess with me, I don't mess with you. You mess with me, I mess you up.

This has been shown over and over again, and I'm surprised you haven't learned the lesson after 1962. You mess with us, we will fucking destroy you so hard you'll be writing books about it 50 years later... guess that came true.

Wow. You are badazz.

 

[Spectre]

best of automobiles... hahahhhhahahahahhhahahah

where does India stand in telecom hardware, semiconductors, railroads, etc? You can import some - not all - from the west. But then you are completely at their mercy. Right now, having the ability to import from China means that both Chinese and western companies have to compete for India's attention. Boycott China? China loses nothing - we are top trade partners of 100+ nations, India is not even a consideration. But what does India lose? The ability to bargain. The west can name the price and you will accept it or go without, that simple..

I dont see what's funny when all the top automobile companies from VW, Merc to Ford and Honda have their manufacturing facilities in India and even export through them. Some very expensive ones like Tesla may be missing but that is because there is simply no demand for them.

As for other hardware - the reasoning in simple we don't mind China supplying us but in return we want equal access to Chinese Markets. If China is not willing to deal on a reciprocal basis then why should we? After all China loses more than we do if it stops doing business with India just because it is afraid of granting access to Indian products on a competitive basis.

We are not asking for subsidies from Chinese are we? We are just asking to let us compete with your local firms for your consumers. If your consumer doesn't want us then they are free to not buy our product.

 

[Tshering22]

best of automobiles... hahahhhhahahahahhhahahah

where does India stand in telecom hardware, semiconductors, railroads, etc? You can import some - not all - from the west. But then you are completely at their mercy. Right now, having the ability to import from China means that both Chinese and western companies have to compete for India's attention. Boycott China? China loses nothing - we are top trade partners of 100+ nations, India is not even a consideration. But what does India lose? The ability to bargain. The west can name the price and you will accept it or go without, that simple.

You might look Chinese as a Northeasterner, but you don't think like a Chinese. You think like an Indian and it shows. Who do Chinese respect?

Thailand, Sweden, Germany, Russia, Pakistan, Singapore and even Philippines (pre-2010) to some degree. How many of them are "engaged" against China? How many of them are aggressive, warlike nations?
Who do Chinese dislike and look down on?

Vietnam, Japan, India, North Korea, current Philippines.

What do all these have in common? You try to "engage" us and "respond" to imagined provocations.

The Chinese mentality is "lmao bring it bro". Mao has clearly stated this policy: 人不犯我我不犯人，人若犯我我必犯人。Don't mess with me, I don't mess with you. You mess with me, I mess you up.

Then what logic do you have to mess up with Bhutan's territory by building roads through encroachments? Their pre 75 and post 75 maps are different. What do you say about Indonesia and Philippines and the 9 dash line which has nothing to do with Chinese sovereignty?

Are you telling me that Bhutan and Philippines sent their troops into your land?

Please.

This has been shown over and over again, and I'm surprised you haven't learned the lesson after 1962. You mess with us, we will fucking destroy you so hard you'll be writing books about it 50 years later... guess that came true.

"we will fucking destroy you so hard?"

Wow. So much aggression in your words.

Please buddy, keep on your side of the border like good people as seen in this video:

And we will have peace on the border.

 

[Vapnope]

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.

First of all thank you for tagging me here.
I don't think US still controls Afghanistan, the current developments state something otherwise. And Iran is not going to move to US in even next decade. This is my humble assessment.

India is just a small pawn in this game.

I don't think India is a small player here. If India does not become another Pakistan for US vis a vis China, i can see its being at par with China soon. If not number one then number 2 definitely.

 

[911]

Then what logic do you have to mess up with Bhutan's territory by building roads through encroachments? Their pre 75 and post 75 maps are different. What do you say about Indonesia and Philippines and the 9 dash line which has nothing to do with Chinese sovereignty?

Are you telling me that Bhutan and Philippines sent their troops into your land?

Please.



"we will fucking destroy you so hard?"

Wow. So much aggression in your words.

Please buddy, keep on your side of the border like good people as seen in this video:

And we will have peace on the border.

In some parts of the video Chinese soldiers were behaving like mentally retarted children.

 

[The Eagle]

I am opening this thread to discuss the containment of China in Indian Ocean theatre

Background:

China has been growing at a rapid pace economically and lately militarily.

Having power is not end in itself. The country needs to be able to project power to be a reckoned as a super power

Towards this end China has started the building roads and sea lanes as part it's strategy to project power

The objective is to have unhindered access to Africa, Middle east and Europe through Central Asia and India Ocean

Key Countries which can make or break China's entry into Indian ocean:

Iran
Pakistan
India
Myanmar
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia

Potential Routes:

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

It is must that when we are about to discuss then need to meet at the point or mental state where the debate be healthy and depending upon real time situations rather drowned by self portraits.

It is necessary to mention here the reason of such containment which is need to be considered though words by any posters wouldn’t matter upon the reality. I know that my flags would invite a few to oppose the opinion as usual due to mindset of anti Chinese/Pakistani but being tagged here, few things that I think may be shared.

Most important question.
Why to go for containment of China? If I start my progress with a theory just to restrain someone only upon the fact of personal obsession then it wouldn’t help a lot and neither will be productive for my own growth. Does china ever invaded any country yet in the name of liberation or threat for her? No a plain No but there are powers who just to maintain their godly ego, have invaded many of nations and put the world in real danger and have done the crimes beyond the definition of sane.

China and containment.
The china is indeed a growing nation and so far has participate the good in growth of world as well as developed the far better things to help world and people. The country herself is on the track for the growth of her economy. As per me, if someone is growing then no need to oppose a positive build even wherever it is happening. Rather being a leg puller, we need to understand the intention of any country for her steps and it is necessary that may believe upon own muscle to get head par with that nation.

Things to do.
Indeed the growing power of China has become headache for her oppositions due to their anti-china egos. When a worldly power thinks like a god with mindset of No Competitor then it is the time to realize that there is another to rise. The one who has more concerns upon the rise of China is need to consider her own business by believing on growth and progressive steps. Creating hurdles to the others myself or on the wish and whim of Master, will eventually fire back and will self hurt. China will strive whatever is needed for her growth and betterment but in the manners without breaking any int’l law or being a threat. Till now, no such action can be witnessed that china is a threat despite disputes with India. The doing of so called powers till now and their gifts for the world and mankind are enough to witness that they dragged the almost every civilization into jeopardy.


Thoughts.
Let the China be grown. Let everyone to grow except the evil which has to be stopped at very beginning. We miss the opportunity to stop the evil yet some started practicing the worship of devil considering as a god but the devil brought destruction and nothing less. Look at the ME and keep aside any Muslim obsession and think what comes to the mind first, indeed the crimes of super powers that made games for their own sake and kept them nations divided to rule and impose their bossy rules. The game has started to change and nothing going to stop this time as well like in past brought change for USSR, Germans and others. So every beginning has an end and only thing will be forever is actions done either were good or bad for humanity. Time for west to step down of their super power seats either this or that way but there are growing powers indeed the newly powers. The US, her partners and the puppets almost, have enjoyed their times and now the new powers is about to take over not individually but a coop like China Pakistan and Russia as I can see. An advice for other countries, accept and be accepted. The India has to act for her own benefits rather being advocate for US or West. India needed to talk with China being a neighbor rather being presenting the US and West concerns. If India has any concerns respect to China then it is necessary to talk directly in diplomatic manners and invite neighboring nations to come with a conclusions which is the best in favor of all.

 

[Blue Marlin]

I am thinking if a Chinese build a commercial port, how can it became a base? New logic.

Indian security establishment knows better. There is no way, Sri Lanka, Maldives or Bangladesh allowing China, an military base, where Indian intelligence is very much active. We can even do "counter intelligence" on those lands.

And there is a Chinese base in Andaman in ur pix Only Pakistan and Myanmar will offer Chinese bases, and even in times of war, only Pakistan will provide China an foothold. Myanmar wont.

However may the Chinese cry, there is no way, Chinese can dislodge India as a naval power in Indian Ocean region. Not for now. I do not see a bright future either, seeing more than 100 vessels in various stages of construction in shipyards.

PS: There is never going to be a war between China and India. And China will allow Pakistan to fend for itself in case of war.

well gwadar is a commercail port and chineses ship are guarantied to go there. just this week china sent warships to sri-lanka.
india is not the only county blessed with an intelligence agency. i hear indian are particularly fond of pakistan's isi.

who said anything about dislodging india as the naval power in the indian ocean? the chinese navy is growing much faster than the indian navy. granted your navy is growing quiet fast too.

when it comes to a war.... well it depends on the scope. most likely it will end up being pakistan vs india. remember 71 when the usa sent the uss enterprise into the bay of bengal. now remove the ac put destroyers and other large vessels there. they wont do anything but they are there so that nobody can.
as for the map that was the largest one i could find with chinese ports/investments. somone made an error. dont shoot the messenger

 

[ThaniOruvan]

Key Countries which can make or break China's entry into Indian ocean:


India
Thailand
Indonesia

Apart from these three no other country can stop or allow china to Indian Ocean during War scenarios.
Iran and Pakistan are too costly and round-the-head routes for war scenarios.

Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore may or may not incline towards either China or India.

Myanmar ??? I don't think so. They need to allow the Chinese to use their land against India which they won't dare to do.

Altogether countries playing second fiddle to China do not provide a war scenario friendly route to attack India.

 

[Spring Onion]

I am opening this thread to discuss the containment of China in Indian Ocean theatre

Background:

China has been growing at a rapid pace economically and lately militarily.

Having power is not end in itself. The country needs to be able to project power to be a reckoned as a super power

Towards this end China has started the building roads and sea lanes as part it's strategy to project power

The objective is to have unhindered access to Africa, Middle east and Europe through Central Asia and India Ocean

Key Countries which can make or break China's entry into Indian ocean:

Iran
Pakistan
India
Myanmar
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia

Potential Routes:

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

You forgot to mention Sri Lanka. You also forgot to point out that how US wants to dominate the Indian Ocean and How she will try her best to prevent China from entering Indian Ocean and How US role in Indian Ocean is going to hurt Indian domination

 

[Dash]

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

You need to take some classes on foreign affairs and politics.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

Removing of sanctions on Iran is a game changer. Iran will counterbalance pakistan and strive for greater impact on Islamic world. US will not care what happens in ME if Israel is not touched. The theatre is now china and surrounding areas.

One of the reasons why US is a major power is bcos of stability @home with no threat and lot of allies. Chinese are hell bent on making enemies near home. Other than Russia who provide passive support China is all alone.

The current situation resembles the one before WW1 when germany raced to build berlin-baghdad railway line. CPEC resembles the same.

Iran population wise is a small country compared to Pakistan and hence would never equal Pakistan in strength and man power, secondly Pakistan have very capable allies in China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and now Russia so our capabilities will never diminish and will always get better, besides Iran will never become an enemy of Pakistan because we will always play as a mediator of peace in the middle east and will never specifically choose Saudi Arabia over Iran.

China is definitely not alone and will never be alone as long as they have Pakistan as their ally, because with Pakistan they acquire alot of influence in the Muslim world even the possibility of them having good relations with Turkey, and also they have friendly relations with Iran, Russia is already their fierce ally so I don't really see them as alone at all.

Btw India should look into the mirror before suggesting China for not having good relations with her neighbors, how many smaller countries do you throw your weight around within your region, Nepal?, Bangladesh?, Sri Lanka?, Burma?

Nepal just recently extended relations with China and so is Bangladesh and again India is quick to forget her doings in the region and point fingers at China lol

 

[dadeechi]

looks like Pakistan importance is expanding in region

Absolutely, Pakistan's importance has increased. The key question now is how does it manage it's relationship with it's neighbors (India, Iran & Afghanistan) and US more importantly.

China have been working slowly on expanding her influence by helping diff countries economically, its the right approach, slow , time consuming but effective

Peaceful rise and patience is their strength.

Uncle Sam is Stalling While European products are to expensive or come with uncle sams string attached e.g tai 129
As for Russia India comes into play leaves only reliable option of china

It depends on the level of relationship between US-Pakistan. There was a time US use to give equipment for free to Pakistan. The high price from US may be the symptom of the declining US-Pakistan relationship. And that reason as I see is due to exponential increase in China-Pakistan relations.

Every country does take decision in its own interest, China doesn't like any other country to rise in its vicinity, for that it has been gradually engaging with Pakistan and pampering it with goodies, so as to keep India busy with Pakistan and as a result of conflict India's growth is stunted, this is their strategic thinking, at the same time they are encouraging commi elements in India, as in India it has always been socialist parties like congress ruling for long time which always had a soft corner for China, they are also encouraging India's neighbours to revolt against India, this has been going on for dacades but our strategic thinkers were never allowed to implement counter strategy because of the same soft corner syndrome,
China also has lot of trouble in its neighbourhood, as it acts as a hegimonistic thug dictating every thing, India has only now woke up from the deep slumber, because those with soft corner are in the back burner, the Chinese principal of string of Perl's is a strategy, then its time for India to join like minded people like Japan, US, Australia, Vietnam, south Korea, Indonesia, phillipines, even Mongolia to form a band of friends, and India should never abandon our friends, trust is built over years.
As for the game between US and China, definitely it will have impact on all the neighbours of China, India should use the opportunity well, this is the time India can and should play a role, we should strive for the balance of power in Asia, which is now imbalanced, India should ask America as a fellow democracy to help India for parity, world respects only power, India should leave all its previous thoughts and think a new.

I think at this time, China would neither pick a direct fight with India nor would support Pakistan pick one with India. China needs the CPEC route to be completed and matured. The most probably time would be around 2020-2025 timeframe.

You forgot to mention Sri Lanka. You also forgot to point out that how US wants to dominate the Indian Ocean and How she will try her best to prevent China from entering Indian Ocean and How US role in Indian Ocean is going to hurt Indian domination

Srilanka is in India Ocean. The first step is to get to India Ocean. Sri Lanka, Maldives and other IOR ports are needed to facilitate the continuation of China's power projection.

India would be more worried about ports that are in it's vicinity/neighbors (e.g Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Maldives).

India would be less worried about Chinese ports on African coast or Middle east. On the other Hand US would be more interested in opposing Chinese foray into Africa or Middle east. That is the reason why US is facilitating/entertaining India's foray into Seychelles. India should have concentrated on Maldives rather than on Seychelles.

you forgot one more route which may be feasible in near future in terms of pipelines.... China + Pakistan + Iran = Indian Ocean too..... well China has many allies in Indian Ocean but it has one good friend and also a strong ally ... Pakistan ...the reason to give Pakistan the uptodate one of the best submarines in Chinese inventory means China is creating a facility in gwadar so it can repair and station its submarines near that facility it doesnt have to go all the way to china get them repaired.. well now after CPEC it is difficult to contain China ..

If China goes through Pakistan to IOR then what is the need for Iran?

 

[Tiger Genie]

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

it is always amusing to see a Pakistani going the extra mile for the Chinese; such as this one. don't worry too much Djinn, India and China know to take care of their interests.