Consquences of military operation in North waziristan

[Sedqal]

I don't see any reason why Gen Tariq can't lead this operation? Specifically when he has the experience and belongs to the area (thus knows the local customs and psyche). Can anyone from PA expand on this? Who is likely to lead the operation.

 

[FaujHistorian]

...
1- Pak army can not conduct military operation in this or next month,..


2- Militarily you would be able to occupy north waziristan (though with much greater losses than previous operations if you go against all militant groups). There would be a relative calm .

you can't come to this forum and start shouting

don't forking do it

don't forking do it


I can't follow all the posts

But in the OP you failed miserably to suggest the RIGHT way to kill forking Talibarbarians.

We have a disease.

People are begging for medicine and surgery.

you say surgery is bad

Then what.

I hope you are not suggesting that as a nation we should role over and pay dead in front of Talibarbarian tribals.

Afghanistanis did it

And so many gora boots have trampled Afghanistani @rse.

So come up with some solution please.

Don't be a blind shouter like IK

I don't see any reason why Gen Tariq can't lead this operation? Specifically when he has the experience and belongs to the area (thus knows the local customs and psyche). Can anyone from PA expand on this? Who is likely to lead the operation.

Oh bhai

operations are lead by majors and lt colonels

Not generals.

 

[Sedqal]

you can't come to this forum and start shouting

don't forking do it

don't forking do it


I can't follow all the posts

But in the OP you failed miserably to suggest the RIGHT way to kill forking Talibarbarians.

We have a disease.

People are begging for medicine and surgery.

you say surgery is bad

Then what.

I hope you are not suggesting that as a nation we should role over and pay dead in front of Talibarbarian tribals.

Afghanistanis did it

And so many gora boots have trampled Afghanistani @rse.

So come up with some solution please.

Don't be a blind shouter like IK




Oh bhai

operations are lead by majors and lt colonels

Not generals.

I don't expect him to go fight at the front but the man can be at some decision making position, overlooking the operations. going on in NW.

 

[FaujHistorian]

I don't expect him to go fight at the front but the man can be at some decision making position, overlooking the operations. going on in NW.

We have plenty of officers to fight this war.

They are all experienced from Swat ops and SW ops,.

Let's not make this as a one man army and one man war.

Thank you

 

[Sedqal]

We have plenty of officers to fight this war.

They are all experienced from Swat ops and SW ops,.

Let's not make this as a one man army and one man war.

Thank you

I remember an interview by Gen Tariq where he said PA took some wrong decisions which could have been avoided - I'm not talking about one man army but the simple fact that someone from that area would be familiar with local customs and can avoid usual pitfalls. Thank you.

 

[Sher Malang]

Welcome back bro, hope you had a great time staying away from this forum.

Thanks for giving a very insightful and true briefing of the situation in FATA; hope rest of Pakistanis understand the situation and all goes well for the people of FATA/KP.

 

[Commander T]

Hafiz gul bahadur would certainly not tolerate a full fledged military operation in his territory, Jets bombardments and Tank's shelling wont discriminate between a TTP fighter and Gul bahadur's fighter..............unless gul bahadur sahab and thousands of his fighters take permission from army and sit in some neutral ground and watch his territory getting blitzed. This is not the character of wazirs and in pashto it becomes a life-long "peghor". He is a type of person who even get pissed on army's retaliation, how can he tolerate a full fledged military operation in his area and against his people?. North waziristan is not under TTP, it is under commanded of gul bahadur and has support of utmanzi wazirs and dawars. You can not do operation there without first breaking the non-aggression pact with Gul Bahadur.
Haqqanis are guests of utmanzai wazirs, they have to move some where else once operation is started. . There are three scenarios for them
1- Pak army decides to get rid of them. They are either asked to leave or ready to die. In that case you are making them your enemy and in extension afghan taliban. They would lost miranashah and quetta and its true that they would lost great deal of operational capabilities but they would recover to great extent after American withdrawal from afghanistan. They would perhaps never engage you militarily but would provide sanctuaries to TTP all over the Afghanistan.. you can not isolate Haqqani within Afghanistan because not only they would be in contact with TTP and its allies based in pakistan but also their other sympathizers specially JUI-F and their strongholds.
2-You spare Haqqanis , maintain treaty with Hafiz gul bahadur and go against TTP only. It wont work, TTP would simply retreat to Afghanistan and adjacent kurram and orakzai. After some time they would return again, attacking and ambushing your military check posts and caravans.
3- You spare haqqanis but go against both TTP and Gul bahadur. By doing this haqqani people would lose credibility and respect among local wazirs.......they would be asked to leave north waziristan.

1: USA is not going anywhere, even after taking mojority of its armies out of afghanistan Usa will have 10000-20000 armies left in afghanistan with many airbases....... so it is certain that if taliban comes to power that will be political and they will, in any case, dependend on pakistan for their support.... so it is out of option that afghani taliban will support any agression against pakistan......
2: TTp is not a united group, as per news, many groups within ttp are ready to surrender but it has not been made public yet, second thing is, not everybody can go to afghanistan, majority of their fighters will have to stay here in pakistan to fight. 3rd thing is they cannot run to afghanistan so easily this time because of check posts......Hafiz gul bahadur is traditionally Pro pakistan and is against activites in pakistan, he needs ttp in afghanistan and just for that reasoon supports them....and offcource pak army is not that stupid to bombard it,s ALLIES or neutral parties....
3: as i proposed, eliminate 2nd level of ttp leadership and possible and eligible candidates of next amir first, this is not just easy but will also creat a massive leadership gaps between ttp lines..... TTP is not that much united under fazlu as it was under hakeem or baitullah... new 3rd level ledership will not be able to handel that much groups and responsibility. it will surely creat problems within ttp. then i believe we should eliminate fazlu and 3rd level leader will never be able to handel ttp leadership..... and then we should propose them negotiation, there always be hardliners and those who are agree to talk. in any case ttp leader will have to agree to talk, because they will want time to re group. but this will be the moment as pakistan army will be a victor and will propose them their choices and ttp will not accept it.... some hardliner will difenately want to fight and for that, it is quite possibe that they will will made seperate group or kill their own leader... in both cases ttp chpter will be closed because other groups will not join ttp in such senerio specially after such a split,and defeat by army and one after another, their leader were going to tour in JANNAT............
4: as for as hafiz gull bahadur is concerened, i think they may support ttp in weapons but will certainly not support them militarily... even if they support, army should kill the iconic figure heads of that group and the rest of them will calm down . because they are not like ttp that have many groups and we have intelligence on them, much better then we have on ttp. we can provide that to USA and they will be more than happy to kill haqqanis and hafiz gul bahadur....

 

[474474]

Welcome back bro, hope you had a great time staying away from this forum.

Thanks for giving a very insightful and true briefing of the situation in FATA; hope rest of Pakistanis understand the situation and all goes well for the people of FATA/KP.

This is all that you and luffys little brains can't think, "please dont hurt my tribal buttbuddies, just let us bomb the rest of pakistan"
I don't believe the lives of tribal barbarians who dont know who to act civilised are more important than those of all the dozens of ethnicities living in the rest of Pakistan. Hell the total population of tribal areas is less than a small city in pakistan

 

[niaz]

Even an idiot can foresee that there is going to be a backlash of any action against North Waziristan. TTP are not going to sit quietly and get killed as Imran Khan and Munawwar Hassan want rest of the Pakistanis to do. However, pray tell me what is the likely scenario if NO ACTION IS TAKEN AGAINST TALIBAN?

Again the writing is on the wall. Taliban will eventually take over the State of Pakistan. It appears that is exactly what Imran Khan and Syed Munawwar Hassan desire. Just look at the facts of last election. Taliban declared that they would not touch PTI, JI, JUI & PML-N election rallies but threatened to bomb election rallies of ANP, PPP & MQM. It had the desired result and we see Taliban sympathizers PTI & JI wining in KPK and PML-N winning Punjab and the Centre. Do we really want to live in Dark Age emirate similar to Mullah Omer's Afghanistan?

I certainly don't. One has to choose lesser of the two evils and fight bullet with bullet. I know that PTI supporters in this forum hate me, but I suggest that they should listen to the cries of people murdered by Taliban allies LEJ. I heard shouts of 'Imran Khan Murda Baad' in Lahore on TV. The protesters there were quite correct, Imran Khan is culpable because of his undaunted support of Taliban, both in and out of the Parliament. PTI KPK gov't even failed to condemn killing of Polio workers in KPP, a compaign that Imran himself launched! What other proof is needed as to why Imran is called as Taliban Khan?

Pakistan media, Urdu media in particular is full of Taliban sympathizers; I can name Ansar Abbasi, Oria Maqbool Jan, Hamid Mir etc. who have a very soft corner for Taliban. I have personally heard coverage of Lal Masjid by Hamid Mir. Before the operation he was calling for enforcing writ of the State but as soon as the operation started, he was condemning Pakistan Army and Musharraf!

TTP made a big mistake by killing of Express News journalists. This has changed the mood of the media. Since media are the opinion makers, GOP must ensure that media does not start supporting Taliban again. As far as other Taliban lovers such Imran Khan, Munawwar Hassan, Fazlure Rahman, Sami ul Haq and Rana Sana ullah (lover of LEJ) are concerned; they can go to hell. Saving Pakistan from the poison of extremism is far more important.

Here is an article why media is so important.

Need to win media war
ABBAS NASIR

IN the strongest indication yet that the government may have decided that its chosen option of peace talks with the Taliban had run its course, the civil and military leadership met this week to look at operational measures to tackle rampant terrorism.

Of course any expectation of immediate action would be unrealistic as, sources say, first an infrastructure will need to be put in place which allows all terrorism-related intelligence and information of related efforts to be centralised and shared across the provinces.

Whether this takes the nomenclature Nacta (National Counter-Terrorism Authority) or a JIC (Joint Intelligence Committee) or something similar isn’t significant. What is important is the acknowledgement of the need to have a coordinated fight against terror.

At the same time, the capacity building of fighting forces, apart from the military and paramilitary units, will continue across the country and the recent approval by the Sindh chief minister of a huge, urgent spend to beef up the Karachi police’s wherewithal to deal with terrorism is part of the effort.

If all this finally points to an understanding on the part of those at the helm that a compromise with terrorists isn’t possible because agreeing to their demands would mean taking the country back hundreds of years, it is a positive sign to say the least.

All security officials will have busy months ahead and will need to ponder over how to effectively re-establish the state’s writ over parts of the country which are under the militants’ control — but to move ahead in a manner that civilians caught up in the conflict are evacuated and/or protected from any fallout.

At the same time, the intelligence gathering and sharing mechanism will have to be fine-tuned to contain any repercussions — for example, an even more ferocious bombing campaign in the urban centres by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to ease pressure on its sanctuaries.

Another big challenge for those planning and executing the operational plans will be the media. The last full-fledged military operation in Swat as well as South Waziristan Agency was also carried out in the glare of the media but there was by and large a consensus about its need and legitimacy.

All journalists will need to be constantly briefed and specifically the prime time news show ‘anchors’ will need to be mollycoddled as they like, possibly by the military leadership to keep them onside. This is imperative because the blowback from any action could be serious and the whole thing could last months, even a couple of years.

Also, unlike the Swat and South Waziristan operations which followed a broad-based political consensus, in the run-up to the last elections, and the government formation since, a lot of politics has been played around the issue of how to deal with this threat and what is causing it.

When national leaders, even with utmost sincerity, express such diverse opinions on an existential threat to the country, public confusion is not surprising. Once any action starts, all the national leaders will have to be on the same page. Those who fall fighting the forces of darkness will have to be owned by one and all.

The government will also need to factor in the inherent conservatism of some of our media stars. On cannot but recall their performance before and after the Lal Masjid operation. Many of them demanded that the state act to enforce its writ. The operation over, a significant number changed their tune. I recall one ‘star’ with considerable following saying he could smell attar-like scent from the charred corpses of the militants killed in Lal Masjid.

This isn’t to sing the virtues of the operation, which could have been better executed, but just to point out the critical importance of the ‘propaganda’ war. The sort of speculation, wild stories that followed in the media were not only very destructive to the anti-terror effort but could actually have served as an impetus to terrorism.

For example, it took so many years and a judicial commission of inquiry to establish that 92 ‘civilians’ (some, many of them armed?) and 11 armed forces personnel were killed in the operation. And not a single female student died. I recall a chance conversation with a manager, a local Rawalpindi man, working for a media organisation who complained: “Musharraf is very cruel. He has mercilessly killed 1,000 children of the poor including a large number of girls studying there.”

This view, as I realised to my horror on that trip, was widely held and the media did nothing to present all the facts to the public. Whether it was their conservative beliefs which pushed into the background the demands of their profession or simply that they tilted towards the one they perceived as the underdog, the result was the same.

It isn’t apparent if the government and the army are aware and taking care of this element. But, anticipating a crackdown, the TTP appears mindful of it. The recent TTP-owned murders of technical media personnel and threats to the media are aimed at intimidating their way to sympathetic headlines and coverage once the conflict goes full steam.

Recent pronouncements by the militants’ ideological allies/sympathisers expressing opposition to any action demonstrate that there is a coordinated effort on the part of the right to mould favourable public opinion. The challenge for all those opposed to the TTP and its allies’ toxic, hate-filled ideology would be to speak in unison and forget even legitimate grievances against each other for now. It’s going to be a long haul. Everyone hoping for peace and sanity will have to keep their nerve.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Need to win media war - DAWN.COM

 

[Bratva]

Hafiz gul bahadur would certainly not tolerate a full fledged military operation in his territory, Jets bombardments and Tank's shelling wont discriminate between a TTP fighter and Gul bahadur's fighter..............unless gul bahadur sahab and thousands of his fighters take permission from army and sit in some neutral ground and watch his territory getting blitzed. This is not the character of wazirs and in pashto it becomes a life-long "peghor". He is a type of person who even get pissed on army's retaliation, how can he tolerate a full fledged military operation in his area and against his people?. .

Non aggression pact b/w Gull Bahadur and PA dictates Hafiz would not allow his territory to be used against PA. Did Hafiz Gul bahadur hold his end of deal? Why is that when militants don't abide by their commitments no body scorns them and when PA retaliates, every tom dick and harry is quick to point fingers at them?

 

[qamar1990]

It should have been general tariq khan, because the new army chief raheel shareef lacks the experience of command in FATA and north west and is committing some big blunders without taking into consideration the complexities of tribal social infrastructure and the history of the region. In December 2013 army was attacked at khajori, they blamed uzbeks for the attack and retaliated by attacking mir ali town with gunship helicopters which has presence of uzbeks and other foreigners according to reports.They claimed that gunship helicopters chased attackers running on the ground all the way from khajori to mir ali, the question arises how the hell attackers survived the shelling of chasing helicopters above their heads?......The gunship helicopters destroyed the entire bazaar, houses and mosques killing more than hundred civilians according the reports of locals, local journalists, parliamentarians and JUI-F.....This clearly indicated that raheel shareef instructed to army to retaliate with full force and apply collective punishment on all those villages and towns where there are militants. Basically Army has been given permission to reply in the same manner as TTP, also increasing the intensity of collective punishment tactic by army. After the attack army imposed continuous curfew in mir ali, hafiz gul bahadur threatened pak army of consequences and army immediately lifted curfew through political administration..............

Army retaliated in response to bannu attack, again with brutality but on much larger scale, jets were used to bomb the hell out of mir ali, eight other villages of north wairistan and also tirah. The message was very clear by army, for every attack on us(not civilians) we would bomb the hell out of your people (militants plus civilians of waziristan).......Pak army could have used highly planned commando raids on houses of taliban in the middle of night, but jets were used as intention was revenge and terrorize the locals..........Now it seems that Pak army is heading for full scale military operation in north waziristan, the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it, to convince the general public and government that congratulate us on our effective and 100 % precise bombardments and support us in military operation which would relive you from terrorism that is taking place in punjab, balochistan and karachi.

No one is discussing about the consequences. Lets discuss about the consequences of military operation in north waziristan without peace talks.

1- Hafiz gul bahadur.
The most powerful the local Taliban commander in north Waziristan which has tribal base of utmanzai wazirs and dawars, which the haqqanis do not. He is descendant of famous faqir of ipi and is proper aalim so he has huge respect and support among wazirs and dawars. He has peace deal with army since 2007 i guess and is focused on Afghanistan. He is allied with haqqani network and he is also sheltering TTP in north waziristan. . Your peace treaty with him would become null and void in case of full scale military operation in north waziristan. He would join hands with TTP and even uzbeks against you .unlike south waziristan operation of 2009 in which mehusd taliban preferred to retreat due to leadership crisis after death of baitullah mehsud , hafiz gul bahadur would offer you a very solid resistance, he has draws very solid loyalties from tribal elders of utmanzai wazirs.........moreover the area of north waziristan adjacent to afghan border is under his influence , they would simply retreat to afghanistan if overwhelmed by military power.

2- TTP
They are not natives to north waziristan but the area has become their operational base after they lost mehsud territoy to army in 2009. They are dangerous for punjab because they have alliances with all Punjabi militants and sectarian outfits (except lashar e taiba). They have also support of uzbeks. Moreover they are also allied with mangal bagh now. They have operational cooperation with haqqani netwrok in afghanistan.Their new leader fazlullah , has great respect among afghan taliban. They would fight along side hafiz gul bahadur and haqqanis against you and would simply retreat to afghanistan once they lost north waziristan. cross border attacks from kuner and nooristan against army check post would increase by many folds after that.

3-Haqqani network
Long-time allies of the Pakistani ISI. north Waziristan is operational base for them. Also lakki marwat, bannu, and tank are recruiting areas for them. Haqqani have friendhips with both TTP and hafz gul bahadur group. Haqqani network needs sanctuaries in paksiatn to operate successfully in Afghanistan. By denying them space in north wairistan , you are not only making them enemies but also all afghan Taliban groups. Loya pakyita (khost, paktika and paktiya) are strongholds by haqqabi network, they border pakistan. HQ has relationships with Uzbeks, ttp, hafiz gul bahadur group and Taliban of ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan. Their focus is afghanistan, so they might not engage you miliatrily in north waziristan. But as they would suffer huge losses due to loss of sanctuaries in pakistan, they would provide TTP and hafiz gul bahadur , IMU and Punjabi taliban sanctuaries in loy paktiya.....or even the entire pashtun belt of afghanistan might become strategic depth for TTP.

4_ Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan
The taliban groups among them are allied with haqqani network and would support fellow wazirs of north waziristan . Nek pakistan wilmohammad and mullah nazir were their prominent taliban leaders. Like utmanzias, taliban have deep social roots in ahamazai wazirs. Half of their tribe is on other side of durand line so they pose a serious threat. Moreover the mehsud area is sandwiched between wazirs of south wazitistan and of north waziristan. The army in ghost region of mehsuds might face attacks from three sides 1-wana, shakai 2-afghanistan 3-shawal valley of north waziristan…………….it might prove disaster for pan army.,

operation will happen inshallah and all enemies of pakistan will be dealt with.
either you are with us or against us, choose your side.

I admit that i am not genius like you but my akhroat-self has observed that military operation against your own people always have bad consequences. Dialogues should always be the priority. I agree with ansar abasi that Allah is punishing Pakistan in the form of TTP for siding with America against afghans and cooperating with them on every level, american invasion killed more than 1 million afghans and pakistan is partner in crime. Siding with America and betraying Afghans on one phone call of collin powel brought you worst consequences in the form of TTP
Analysts and intellectuals were telling your pak army not to enter into south waziristan and violate agreement of jinnah with tribals. But naak-ki-seedh may sochnay walay faujis pointed guns at ahmadzai wazirs without thinking about the consequences. You broke shakai agreemnat on american pressure and killed nek mohammad by requesting american drone.......opening the door for violation of sovereignty of Pakistan by america in the form of drone strikes. Nek mohammad was declared "shaheed" by locals and his death inspired many wazirs and mehsuds to take arms against your army.
You carried out lal masji operation in brutal way, used chemicals on them and killed hundreds of female students without thinking about consequences. by doing this , TNSM announced their war against you in malakand. And baitullah mehsud extended his war outside waziristan to avenge lal masjid incident. Lal masjid incident gave birth to TTP, against which you are still in the state of war.
Your army killed akbar bugt without thinking about the consequences, now balochs are attacking your security forces, burning your flags and banning your national anthem.
Consequences of north waziristan operation will be of greater magnitude, there is a reason why pak army always shied away from north waziristan operation.

we are ready for the consequences, these are not our people they are our enemies.
our people will stand with us and help us defeat this enemy!
are you supporting pakistan or the enemy?

 

[Counter-Errorist]

I certainly don't. One has to choose lesser of the two evils and fight bullet with bullet. I know that PTI supporters in this forum hate me, but I suggest that they should listen to the cries of people murdered by Taliban allies LEJ. I heard shouts of 'Imran Khan Murda Baad' in Lahore on TV. The protesters there were quite correct, Imran Khan is culpable because of his undaunted support of Taliban, both in and out of the Parliament. PTI KPK gov't even failed to condemn killing of Polio workers in KPP, a compaign that Imran himself launched! What other proof is needed as to why Imran is called as Taliban Khan?

IK seriously needs to do a full u-turn on his stance on the Taliban, or he's quickly going to start losing supporters. He has been trying to avoid the fallout over KP by risking the security of the entire nation. He needs to realize that the operation is inevitable, get on board with and prepare for the fallout.

 

[Secur]

Non aggression pact b/w Gull Bahadur and PA dictates Hafiz would not allow his territory to be used against PA. Did Hafiz Gul bahadur hold his end of deal? Why is that when militants don't abide by their commitments no body scorns them and when PA retaliates, every tom dick and harry is quick to point fingers at them?

That is what I have failed to understand ! I mean , you talk to an average Joe on the street or a Mullah and he will tell you , how the Pakistan Army broke the Swat deal on American orders , the same thing is repeated in different manners by the political leaders of this country . How worse can it get ? They love to believe on terrorists version of events rather than their own army , they will gladly tell you how the army started fighting with Taliban " mujahids " after signing the Nizam-e-Adl , the Taliban killing a senior PA officer and making advances into Buner , Shangla and Dir is absent from their versions .

 

[Black Mamba1]

Hamid Gul is against the operation. He stated some consequences-

 

[American Pakistani]

Fcuk TTPers where ever you find them but you need to prepare for proper operation. Learn from these last 10-12 years...Military eliminates them in one area & they retreat to another area or to Afghanistan only to return back. First & must requirement for any successful operation is to eliminate their supply & escape route at all costs & for this you need to block/fence/seal/wall the Pak-Afghan border.

Those duffers who are pressuring for talks with these m0f0's need to STFU. TTP'ers are not humans...they think & act very differently. How can you talk peace with someone who have no human thinking? TTP, LeJ & BLA must be crushed & eliminated with extreme brutal force. Use their style on them.