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Conditions on crimea get worse :D

We have an economic war buddy. So far russia gets crushed by it. :) What we just do is plain and simple the destruction of the russian economy.

But they have the Oil, and they haven't used exploiting it, even in crimea they have taken all the Oil resources. The day they start doing it, they will be back. Right now they are concentrating more into China Vs US, and developing an economic system to sustain their revenues. The Population in Russia is not much, they have huge area with Arctic completely in their control.

Germany is clever, they will maintain good relations with both Russia and US. Because ultimately Germany's nearest market is Russia and eastern Europe. And Germany can do well there.
 
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umm. they HAVE to sell USD reserve to take back some rouble to counter the depreciation.

However, Russian, like many country have a limited USD reserve and if the sanction continue they can probably sell their US reserve one last time then the market should be saturated.

Like I said, you need a taker when you are selling. Selling USD is easy as they are international trade currency but selling Ukrainian money? I would imagine that to be harder to find a buyer for it

By selling dollars and other hard currencies from its huge reserves, Russia hopes to support the ruble's price.

Russian Federation do have huge reserve of Ukrainian currency which no one can deny , so why cant Russian Federation has sold Ukrainian Currency in International market .

Today only Russian authorities have confiscated 191 million of Ukrainian Currency in Crimea.

Bailiffs freeze 660 mln rubles in PrivatBank's assets in Crimea

The Russian Federal Service of Bailiffs has imposed a freeze order on over 660 million rubles at the Crimean branch of PrivatBank owned by the Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, the agency's spokesperson said.

"As part of the enforcement proceedings from November 24 to December 5, the bailiffs found UAH 191.8 million in cash owned by PrivatBank, which corresponds to 665.68 million Russian rubles at the foreign-currency exchange rate of the Russian Central Bank. All monetary assets have been arrested," the agency said in a press release obtained by Interfax on Friday.
 
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Around 3000. They had a seat in the crimean parliament but russia has wiped that way.

There were reports that 10,000 Ethnic Germans are willing to come to Crimea and have wrote to Russian Authorities of Crimea. Is it true ?
 
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Russian Federation do have huge reserve of Ukrainian currency which no one can deny , so why cant Russian Federation has sold Ukrainian Currency in International market .
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because buying and selling is two different concept and you need both to make a trade

It never doubt that Russian can sell their Ukrainian reserve, BUT TO WHOM that is a question you need to ask.

People buy foreign currency for a reason, you either short it (betting it will fail) or hoard it (betting that it will go up) thats related to the currency strength.

Now Ukrainian currency is not a trade commodity as nobody will use ukrainian currency for international trade ao the only buyer market will be back to Ukraine as they are the one needed their currency backed up incasw od an inflation.

You are not talking about mainstream currency like USD, GBP, EUR or RMB. which have direct exhange deal with some to all country other thab their own issuing state. The only linkage between any country currency to Ukrainian own is either United State or Russia, and Russia is selling and normally only US and Ukrainian is buying, becuase Ukranian money to other country is useless.

Now Russia wabt to sell does not mean they would have a buyer, even if they can find it, the price is not foing to be with their favor
 
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because buying and selling is two different concept and you need both to make a trade

It never doubt that Russian can sell their Ukrainian reserve, BUT TO WHOM that is a question you need to ask.

People buy foreign currency for a reason, you either short it (betting it will fail) or hoard it (betting that it will go up) thats related to the currency strength.

Now Ukrainian currency is not a trade commodity as nobody will use ukrainian currency for international trade ao the only buyer market will be back to Ukraine as they are the one needed their currency backed up incasw od an inflation.

You are not talking about mainstream currency like USD, GBP, EUR or RMB. which have direct exhange deal with some to all country other thab their own issuing state. The only linkage between any country currency to Ukrainian own is either United State or Russia, and Russia is selling and normally only US and Ukrainian is buying, becuase Ukranian money to other country is useless.

Now Russia wabt to sell does not mean they would have a buyer, even if they can find it, the price is not foing to be with their favor

Here i am not talking about people buying and selling but Governments in international market. Russian Federation is holding huge sum of Ukrainian currency and even yesterday 191 Million Ukrainian currency was confiscated. So what will Russian authorities will do with this confiscated money ? Will they return back to Ukrainian central bank or add this money in their foreign currency reserves.

Rich Ukrainians Struggle To Find Safe Havens As Currency, Market Flatlines - Forbes
“Money has been leaving Ukraine for some time. The difference between the usual and the current situation is that there is a much bigger flood,” says Marlen Kruzhkov, an attorney with Gusrae Kaplan Nusbaum in New York.

Krukhkov told FORBES about five recent Ukraine transactions, including New York and San Francisco real estate, that totaled a little over $35 million. Roughly the same amount of money is heading into European housing and euro bonds.

“One of our Ukrainian clients just bought a $30 million building in Midtown. Another one bought a huge stake of McDonald's MCD +1.01%. Then we have a guy who bought a portfolio of 7-11′s,” Kruzhkov says.


December 26
TASS: Economy - Russia to add $4.7 billion to Reserve Fund in 2014
 
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Here i am not talking about people buying and selling but Governments in international market. Russian Federation is holding huge sum of Ukrainian currency and even yesterday 191 Million Ukrainian currency was confiscated. So what will Russian authorities will do with this confiscated money ? Will they return back to Ukrainian central bank or add this money in their foreign currency reserves.

Rich Ukrainians Struggle To Find Safe Havens As Currency, Market Flatlines - Forbes
“Money has been leaving Ukraine for some time. The difference between the usual and the current situation is that there is a much bigger flood,” says Marlen Kruzhkov, an attorney with Gusrae Kaplan Nusbaum in New York.

Krukhkov told FORBES about five recent Ukraine transactions, including New York and San Francisco real estate, that totaled a little over $35 million. Roughly the same amount of money is heading into European housing and euro bonds.

“One of our Ukrainian clients just bought a $30 million building in Midtown. Another one bought a huge stake of McDonald's MCD +1.01%. Then we have a guy who bought a portfolio of 7-11′s,” Kruzhkov says.


December 26
TASS: Economy - Russia to add $4.7 billion to Reserve Fund in 2014

they can either sell it or store it

But russia cannot add them to their reserve as simply put if Russian do add them, the Ukrainian government can simply write off whatever amount Russian holding and reissuing new print of the same amount, that rendered the Ukrainian currency currently at russian hand worthless

The only logical way is either returning them or sell them back to ukraine. I have ben saying this for 4 post now...
 
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they can either sell it or store it

But russia cannot add them to their reserve as simply put if Russian do add them, the Ukrainian government can simply write off whatever amount Russian holding and reissuing new print of the same amount, that rendered the Ukrainian currency currently at russian hand worthless

The only logical way is either returning them or sell them back to ukraine. I have ben saying this for 4 post now...

Russian Federation have recently sold international currencies not just dollar if the other currency is EURO then recently EU Ukraine Association agreement was done and one article came that Germany is to lend 500 million in Donbas region of Ukraine. It might be possible that Russians have sold Ukrainian currency in return of Euro or Dollar currency to raise the Ruble reserves and make ruble stable. There are always back door deals which are made in emergencies.

26.12.2014
Germany to lend EUR 500 mln to rebuild Donbass – Vice Premier Zubko
 
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Russian Federation have recently sold international currencies not just dollar if the other currency is EURO then recently EU Ukraine Association agreement was done and one article came that Germany is to lend 500 million in Donbas region of Ukraine. It might be possible that Russians have sold Ukrainian currency in return of Euro or Dollar currency to raise the Ruble reserves and make ruble stable. There are always back door deals which are made in emergencies.

26.12.2014
Germany to lend EUR 500 mln to rebuild Donbass – Vice Premier Zubko
you still dont understand...

you can backdoor sale with any currency you want GBP, USD, AUD. EUR, as they gone thru the respective government (Britain, America, Australia, and EU in this case) and Russian only need to negotiate with those country directly.

Now to sell Ukranian money, you basically needed Ukrainian approval and their assurance that they will not write off those currency currently in Russian hand. Otherwise they would have become useless.

Imagine this.situation, i am selling an internet program wrote by my friend to you and My friend have the source code (HTML or XML or whatever) and he have the access to the source code.

Now if i said i can sell you the program but i cannit gurantee that my friend wont wipe the source code in the internet , hence render the whole program useless, would you buy that source code from me?
 
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you still dont understand...

you can backdoor sale with any currency you want GBP, USD, AUD. EUR, as they gone thru the respective government (Britain, America, Australia, and EU in this case) and Russian only need to negotiate with those country directly.

Now to sell Ukranian money, you basically needed Ukrainian approval and their assurance that they will not write off those currency currently in Russian hand. Otherwise they would have become useless.

Imagine this.situation, i am selling an internet program wrote by my friend to you and My friend have the source code (HTML or XML or whatever) and he have the access to the source code.

Now if i said i can sell you the program but i cannit gurantee that my friend wont wipe the source code in the internet , hence render the whole program useless, would you buy that source code from me?


My Friend we are talking here about Central Banks and International banking system.

Russian Federation do have huge sum of Ukrainian currency in its hand and when Russian Federation have sold foreign currency reserves it was not just dollars and euro but even other hard currency which includes Ukrainian currency i think. And this is the reason that Germany have gave 500 million Euro loan to Donbas region. Its like a settlement because of the crisis but now again 2 days back , Russian authorities have again over took 191 million from Privat Bank.

What Russian Federation will do with this money ?

Bailiffs freeze 660 mln rubles in PrivatBank's assets in Crimea

no its not.

It was reported in Interfax

Up to 10,000 ethnic Germans deported from Crimea in the 1940s and their descendants are already to return to the peninsula after Crimea's unification with Russia, Interfax reported head of the Ethnic Society of Germans of Crimea Yury Gempel saying.



Visa and MC off in crimea will only push for the implement of Union pay in Russia controlled area.

Chinese Tourists' Purchasing Power Helps UnionPay to Become No 1 Foreign Card Brand... -- SHANGHAI, Dec. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --


I think this has more to do with the time duration which was declared by Russian authorities in Crimea that till January 2015 , Ukrainian currency can be circulated and after that only rubles. So the deadline is coming in 4 more days.
 
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My Friend we are talking here about Central Banks and International banking system.

Russian Federation do have huge sum of Ukrainian currency in its hand and when Russian Federation have sold foreign currency reserves it was not just dollars and euro but even other hard currency which includes Ukrainian currency i think. And this is the reason that Germany have gave 500 million Euro loan to Donbas region. Its like a settlement because of the crisis but now again 2 days back , Russian authorities have again over took 191 million from Privat Bank.

What Russian Federation will do with this money ?

Bailiffs freeze 660 mln rubles in PrivatBank's assets in Crimea



It was reported in Interfax

Up to 10,000 ethnic Germans deported from Crimea in the 1940s and their descendants are already to return to the peninsula after Crimea's unification with Russia, Interfax reported head of the Ethnic Society of Germans of Crimea Yury Gempel saying.






I think this has more to do with the time duration which was declared by Russian authorities in Crimea that till January 2015 , Ukrainian currency can be circulated and after that only rubles. So the deadline is coming in 4 more days.

first of all, that is what you think. not what it is

second of all, do you know how currency and exchange rate, inflation, valuation works?

do you know why a USD $100 notes worth 100 dollar in USD? Thats because the reserve bank regonize the value and willing to exchange 100 dollar worth of US currency when you tender the 100 dollar bill, hence this ie called legal tender

And when each bill are marked by distinct serial number a that no everyone can print a 100 dollar note and say this is the legal tender and hence the Reserve bank ONLY regonize thqt particular 100 dollar bill

Now when you deal with a Bank to Bank situation, you dont work in bill form economy and currency, now you work in credit and debit system. Simply put, your bank can technically hold 23 billions USD but that does not mean you have 23 millions 100 USD note in your bank. So this time reserve bank of America will grant you credit of 23 billions on Trust, thats called credit

Now, say if your bank owe the Central bank 23 billions instead, that is a debt of 23 billions to the reserve bank, meaning you should have 23 billions worth of currency in your name in the bank, but you dont. Now you either get 23 billions credits to pays off the debt or the reserve banm write it off for you. When it write off, they are extending you a line of credit and use it to cover the 23 billions you owe

Currency exchange rate to a foreign currency depends on how much your own currency you hold in your reserve bank, technically, your own country hold the most of your own currency, so when you buy off your own currency from a foreign country, that means you restrict the currency circulation intrnationally, which means the global supply is down, your currency is up and strength against the greenbag

However if what you are holding is less than a ratio set forth to international holding, that mean the world have more of your currency than you, then your currency would devalue a either you decrease trading or you print more (regonize credit) on your own currency

Now coming back to the question. Now Russian holding more Ukrainian Currency since the annexation of Crimea, which was part of Ukraine before, but the currency owne4 does not change, it is still in Ukraine as they are "Credit" instead of hard paper money, which is just some number in a book somewhere. Ukraine can write off this credit as Russian actually holding nothing but some number on some paper or on some computer on a Crimea bank, if Ukraine does not pays off the credit, the number the Russian hold is just that. Numbers

It would be a bit different case if Russian is holding 165 billions of ukrainine currency on paper currency (note) that would involve some adjustment of the paper money system and reprint of the currency

Money in bank is just credit, be that in a note form or just number, it does not do anying until the currency issuer vouch for that credit, in this case, the issuer is Ukrainian Reserve or Central Bank. They can strike off the cash hy serial number and call that illegal tender by either changing the serial number system. Effectively write off that note from legal tendering. Or if they are juat credit, then well, the Central bank or the Reserve bank of Ukraine can simply write off the credit.

Will they do so is another problem
 
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first of all, that is what you think. not what it is

second of all, do you know how currency and exchange rate, inflation, valuation works?

do you know why a USD $100 notes worth 100 dollar in USD? Thats because the reserve bank regonize the value and willing to exchange 100 dollar worth of US currency when you tender the 100 dollar bill, hence this ie called legal tender

And when each bill are marked by distinct serial number a that no everyone can print a 100 dollar note and say this is the legal tender and hence the Reserve bank ONLY regonize thqt particular 100 dollar bill

Now when you deal with a Bank to Bank situation, you dont work in bill form economy and currency, now you work in credit and debit system. Simply put, your bank can technically hold 23 billions USD but that does not mean you have 23 millions 100 USD note in your bank. So this time reserve bank of America will grant you credit of 23 billions on Trust, thats called credit

Now, say if your bank owe the Central bank 23 billions instead, that is a debt of 23 billions to the reserve bank, meaning you should have 23 billions worth of currency in your name in the bank, but you dont. Now you either get 23 billions credits to pays off the debt or the reserve banm write it off for you. When it write off, they are extending you a line of credit and use it to cover the 23 billions you owe

Currency exchange rate to a foreign currency depends on how much your own currency you hold in your reserve bank, technically, your own country hold the most of your own currency, so when you buy off your own currency from a foreign country, that means you restrict the currency circulation intrnationally, which means the global supply is down, your currency is up and strength against the greenbag

However if what you are holding is less than a ratio set forth to international holding, that mean the world have more of your currency than you, then your currency would devalue a either you decrease trading or you print more (regonize credit) on your own currency

Now coming back to the question. Now Russian holding more Ukrainian Currency since the annexation of Crimea, which was part of Ukraine before, but the currency owne4 does not change, it is still in Ukraine as they are "Credit" instead of hard paper money, which is just some number in a book somewhere. Ukraine can write off this credit as Russian actually holding nothing but some number on some paper or on some computer on a Crimea bank, if Ukraine does not pays off the credit, the number the Russian hold is just that. Numbers

It would be a bit different case if Russian is holding 165 billions of ukrainine currency on paper currency (note) that would involve some adjustment of the paper money system and reprint of the currency

Money in bank is just credit, be that in a note form or just number, it does not do anying until the currency issuer vouch for that credit, in this case, the issuer is Ukrainian Reserve or Central Bank. They can strike off the cash hy serial number and call that illegal tender by either changing the serial number system. Effectively write off that note from legal tendering. Or if they are juat credit, then well, the Central bank or the Reserve bank of Ukraine can simply write off the credit.

Will they do so is another problem


Every country do hold foreign reserves on International system which is in shape of gold reserves, natural resources etc which are hold by companies public and private both under the government of each country then there are assets , instruments etc and then foreign exchanges are done in the banks authorized by the governments in international agreements.

All the neighboring countries buy and sell foreign currencies of each other and there is nowhere any law that only dollars and Euro should be the mode of any transaction. When you are saying that that whatever the Ukrainian currency which is hold by Russian Federation is nothing but just paper. Russian Federation and Ukraine both one way or another way will have to reach agreements regarding the Ukrainian currency which is under control of Russian Federation 191 million Ukrainian currency was confiscated 2 to 3 days back. I don't think that Privat Bank was working illegally in Crimea .

Now Ukraine is going to get around $ 17 billion under IMF lending and economic policy and in the first week of January 2015 IMF representatives will be there in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Foreign-Currency Reserves Dip Below $10 Billion - WSJ
 
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Every country do hold foreign reserves on International system which is in shape of gold reserves, natural resources etc which are hold by companies public and private both under the government of each country then there are assets , instruments etc and then foreign exchanges are done in the banks authorized by the governments in international agreements.

All the neighboring countries buy and sell foreign currencies of each other and there is nowhere any law that only dollars and Euro should be the mode of any transaction. When you are saying that that whatever the Ukrainian currency which is hold by Russian Federation is nothing but just paper. Russian Federation and Ukraine both one way or another way will have to reach agreements regarding the Ukrainian currency which is under control of Russian Federation 191 million Ukrainian currency was confiscated 2 to 3 days back. I don't think that Privat Bank was working illegally in Crimea .

Now Ukraine is going to get around $ 17 billion under IMF lending and economic policy and in the first week of January 2015 IMF representatives will be there in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Foreign-Currency Reserves Dip Below $10 Billion - WSJ

working legally or illegally or not at the end of the day the Ukrainian bank note have to be valued by Ukranian Reserve bank. It does not matter which country is holding said note.

So at the end of the day, If ukrainian reserve bank did not value that note, thbe yes, it will he like you said, it would worth nothing but merely the value of the paper it printed on

Again, whether or not Ukrainian Reserve bank do that woukd be a whole new question altogether
 
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