Conclusive phase of Zarb-i-Azb next month

[tarrar]

Soon after the completion of this ops, PA will have to establish a new Core command in the area to protect the borders.

 

[Kompromat]

The U.S. and Pakistan joined hands due to our shared stance against terrorism. No two other nations could understand each other’s sacrifices as we’ve lost thousands of brave soldiers in fighting terrorism. We have always appreciated Pakistan’s sacrifices in the region. It is our wish to see peace prevail throughout the region, and we commend the efforts of Pakistani security forces who are working diligently to counter terrorism.

The terrorists also remain focused on destabilizing the region through their terrorist activities. The common attacks on both sides of the border (Afghanistan and Pakistan) prove that we are fighting the same terrorists who share a common goal of destabilizing the region. Therefore, it is imperative for the regional partners to work together and cooperate and coordinate against the common enemies. The recent meetings and statements by the Afghan and Pakistan officials show that both countries realize the importance of working together to negate the common threat of terrorism.

PM Nawaz, president Ghani vow to fight terrorism

Ali Khan

Digital Engagement Team, USCENTCOM

TTP is going to join IS when Pakistan kicks them out of Shawal Valley. Reasons are below.

1: TTP is ideologically closer to IS than to Afghan Taliban. We have seen a number of TTP commanders pledge alligence to IS.

2: When defeated from Pakistan, the ranks of TTP are going to swell in Kunar and Nuristan. This will create a rift between TTP and Afghan Taliban because the ATs don't want to lose too much ground to TTP.

3: This will lead to ATs either asking TTP to pledge full alligence to Mullah Omar and fight Kabul govt in their spring offensive or banishing them which will draw them closer to IS since AQISA and Zawahiri are now weak.

4: This will create a common enemy for ATs and Kabul govt. The IS swelling with TTP ranks.

5: What we need to do is to accelerate efforts to broker a political deal between Mullah Omar and President Ghani. These two forces need to be brought together in order to defeat IS before it grows too strong. A power sharing deal between ATs and Kabul govt should be offered in return for ATs fighting with ANSF against IS.

Please convey this message to CENTCOM.

@Icarus @Irfan Baloch @Hyperion @Oscar @A-Team

 

[Irfan Baloch]

TTP is going to join IS when Pakistan kicks them out of Shawal Valley. Reasons are below.

1: TTP is ideologically closer to IS than to Afghan Taliban. We have seen a number of TTP commanders pledge alligence to IS.

2: When defeated from Pakistan, the ranks of TTP are going to swell in Kunar and Nuristan. This will create a rift between TTP and Afghan Taliban because the ATs don't want to lose too much ground to TTP.

3: This will lead to ATs either asking TTP to pledge full alligence to Mullah Omar and fight Kabul govt in their spring offensive or banishing them which will draw them closer to IS since AQISA and Zawahiri are now weak.

4: This will create a common enemy for ATs and Kabul govt. The IS swelling with TTP ranks.

5: What we need to do is to accelerate efforts to broker a political deal between Mullah Omar and President Ghani. These two forces need to be brought together in order to defeat IS before it grows too strong. A power sharing deal between ATs and Kabul govt should be offered in return for ATs fighting with ANSF against IS.

Please convey this message to CENTCOM.

@Icarus @Irfan Baloch @Hyperion @Oscar @A-Team

this is very important and must be followed through

Pakistan should try its influence on Afghan taliban and their Haqqani faction.
while US should take Northern Alliance into confidence and convince it to approach a common ground.

the challenges faced by Both Pakistan and America are

• come to terms with Afghan taliban (USA) and Northern alliance (Pakistan)
• convince these two groups to work together and reconcile in the face of a bigger worse threat.
• Northern alliance must give up its racist and repressive approach towards the Afghan Pashtons
• Afghan Taliban Must allow other factions, sects and faiths to live in peace without fear and improve their human rights record specially towards education and women.

Afghan Hazara's who have been persecuted in the past by the Afghan Taliban went to them seeking help against ISIS. America and Taliban continued the dialogue despite the on and off confrontations. And Pakistan (military) told Afghan Taliban to get their act together and reconcile with the US/ Afghan regime if they want to remain relevant in Afghan future.

I must mention some Spoilers that can destroy the Pak-US bid to bring stability in Afghanistan and deny ISIS from getting a foothold

India,.. Unstable Afghanistan directly./ indirectly affects Pakistan which pleases India & its policies in the region.
TTP.. sworn enemy of Pakistan and allied with ISIS will do what it can to disrupt Pak-US initiative and cause rifts.
ISIS itself will seek more ambitious & volatile members from Afghan and Pakistan taliban & other sectarian terrorists to fill up its ranks.

Iran wild card?

not sure where it will stand, it has good relations with Northern Alliance led/ influenced Afghan regime, it is cooperating with America in Iraq vs the fight with ISIS. but its presence seems more subdue that the Indians.


interesting times indeed.

 

[FaujHistorian]

......
the challenges faced by Both Pakistan and America are

• come to terms with Afghan taliban (USA) and Northern alliance (Pakistan)
• convince these two groups to work together and reconcile in the face of a bigger worse threat.
• Northern alliance must give up its racist and repressive approach towards the Afghan Pashtons
• Afghan Taliban Must allow other factions, sects and faiths to live in peace without fear and improve their human rights record specially towards education and women.

Iran wild card?

not sure where it will stand, it has good relations with Northern Alliance led/ influenced Afghan regime, it is cooperating with America in Iraq vs the fight with ISIS. but its presence seems more subdue that the Indians.


interesting times indeed.

Afghan Taliban/Northern Alliance can't be "negotiated" with either. haven't we learned from TTP.

Ultimately a war lord is a war lord. Not a peace nick computer kooley.

And war lords understand only one thing. "War".

Pakistan has already changed its stance on Afghanistani Taliban. If we are serious in eliminating them, the formula is the same that we have used for the last one year.

Get civilian population out, then use PAF and PA to clean the cancer..

Same formula for Afghanistan. Which means, PA/PAF should start planning to go in and help Afghanistan gov.

Off course several major hurdles remain that are mostly of political nature. But these could be resolved with the help of mainly China (and to some extent help from UK and US).

Iran may try to play its card with Talib-bastards. But time for Mullahs and Ayatullah freeks is over.

peace

TTP is going to join IS when Pakistan kicks them out of Shawal Valley.

not going to.

They have!

And they too are hunted down by PA/PAF.

IS is no different from TTP. They can only survive where local army is made up of pussy cats.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Afghan Taliban can't be "negotiated" with either. haven't we learned from TTP.

Ultimately a war lord is a war lord. Not a peace nick computer kooley.

And war lords understand only one thing. "War".

Pakistan has already changed its stance on Afghanistani Taliban. If we are serious in eliminating them, the formula is the same that we have used for the last one year.

Get civilian population out, then use PAF and PA to clean the cancer..

Same formula for Afghanistan. Which means, PA/PAF should start planning to go in and help Afghanistan gov.

Off course several major hurdles remain that are mostly of political nature. But these could be resolved with the help of mainly China (and to some extent help from UK and US).

peace

re your comment about Afghan Taliban (which I find hard to disagree with) same applies to members of Northern Alliance I mean look at the bunch of those Punjsheri , Uzbek war/ druglords. who are acceptable to India and west because they rape and plunder without beards or Islam.

rhetoric aside I see an opportunity here, there are confrontations among AT and ISIS . we must use it to our advantage. I still have faith in groups headed by some old Soviet era Afghan commanders we better approach them before they find themselves compelled to join ISIS. what firepower and resources do we have to ensure we will achieve what NATO despite its fire power couldn't?
these groups will simply jump between borders and exhaust larger portion of our men and material while Modi Ji on the east is getting edgy and looking for a fight.

even Americans on their channels are allowing the debate to support the Afghan taliban vs. ISIS. you can look it up if you like. if it was easy I would like to eliminate this entire Taliban factory (whatever faction, nationality) because they follow the school of thought that resembles the Takifirs of Pakistan, Iraq and Syria
but fighting will come later

first challenge is, how to get the coalition together (Afghan regime, US/ Pakistan) to have common objective

 

[FaujHistorian]

re your comment about Afghan Taliban (which I find hard to disagree with) same applies to members of Northern Alliance.....

Good point about NA.

I meant to address them too (see my update to the prev post).

Yes the war lords like IS, NA, Talib-astaards etc are very similar in make from military pov.

They all can thrive in front of weak forces like Iraqis, ANA, Syrians etc.

For regular armies, these war lords are just pipsqueaks, little mice. So I am baffled by American media or Pakistani media talking about IS as if they are 10 feet tall megatrons.

They are not!

Just little rats taking advantage of weak governments and inadequately equipped/trained/used national armies/AFs.

peace

 

[Salik]

Let me put my two cents sir.

IS and AT will sattle their confrontations for bigger objective. Because IS hasn't physically reached Afganistan yet. When they do they'll bargain. Hence TTP and AT get new life. But if Pak closely monitors Afgan border they'll remain limited to there. Main focus and work is needed in Afganistan.

If Pakistan contacts Afgan Taliban it loses its weight. So do not go in haste.

 

[A.M.]

If they were able to clear Tirah, they should be able to do the same with Shawal.

 

[I.R.A]

Let me put my two cents sir.

IS and AT will sattle their confrontations for bigger objective. Because IS hasn't physically reached Afganistan yet. When they do they'll bargain. Hence TTP and AT get new life. But if Pak closely monitors Afgan border they'll remain limited to there. Main focus and work is needed in Afganistan.

If Pakistan contacts Afgan Taliban it loses its weight. So do not go in haste.

There are reports of clashes between IS and AT, and if you ask me I will AT over IS and Horus's suggestion seems okay to me considering what is happening or going to happen. AT are negotiating and don't have any international ambitions, same could not be said about IS and AQ.

 

[Salik]

There are reports of clashes between IS and AT, and if you ask me I will AT over IS and Horus's suggestion seems okay to me considering what is happening or going to happen. AT are negotiating and don't have any international ambitions, same could not be said about IS and AQ.

As if AT will hand over TTP leadership to Pakistan. Never, they didn't hand over OBL to US at any cost. It means TTP will happily give pledge to AT and so Pak will shake hands with TTP. Leave it sir.

Who is asking Pak to take sides. For Pak, AT and IS are like MQM and ASWJ in Karachi. We can't use one to eradicate other.

 

[I.R.A]

As if AT will hand over TTP leadership to Pakistan. Never, they didn't hand over OBL to US at any cost. It means TTP will happily give pledge to AT and so Pak will shake hands with TTP. Leave it sir.

Who is asking Pak to take sides. For Pak, AT and IS are like MQM and ASWJ in Karachi. We can't use one to eradicate other.

Sir TTP has already started looking towards ISIS, and AT is looking for support towards Iran to counter this new threat. And for Pakistan to remain neutral it is impossible, because Afghan Government sooner or latter will have to strike a deal with AT, or otherwise Afghanistan if AT are removed from the pic will be fighting TTP/ISIS and Pakistan can in no way ignore ISIS influence, either we keep Western border hostile forever and security forces engaged there permanently or we join a nexus that is beneficial for us.

 

[Salik]

Sir TTP has already started looking towards ISIS, and AT is looking for support towards Iran to counter this new threat. And for Pakistan to remain neutral it is impossible, because Afghan Government sooner or latter will have to strike a deal with AT, or otherwise Afghanistan if AT are removed from the pic will be fighting TTP/ISIS and Pakistan can in no way ignore ISIS influence, either we keep Western border hostile forever and security forces engaged there permanently or we join a nexus that is beneficial for us.

So you will leave one enemy half dead and run for the other expecting former will give you back up after you give him medic. What is AT? For ten years they lured TTP to make Mullah Umer the Ameer ul Mominin. Their only objective was to destablize Pakistan. Now you are going to make nexus with them. People are you haunted. AT must go. It is good time to isolate them and leave TTP no place to return either.

If you think AT and TTP will point guns on each other, it will never happen. Just watch. Ultimately they will make an alliance.