La Chine lance 6 missiles ASBM vers la mer de Chine méridionale
China launches 6 ASBM missiles towards South China Sea
East Pendulum/ Henry K 8th July 2019
Translated from French to English by Google translator:-
Details are beginning to be found about the recent firing of Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile towards the South China Sea, which took place on Monday, July 1 in southern China.
First revealed by the American media CNBC before being confirmed by the Pentagon, these ASBM launches of the Chinese Rocket Force finally concern six missiles that hit two different areas in the sea. The identification of the exact pattern used in these shots is still ongoing.
The CNBC text, published on July 2, citing two U.S. officers with knowledge of the matter, first referred to a "series of ASBM tests" of which at least one was pulled out to sea over the weekend, and they were potentially waiting for others until Wednesday, July 3.
Several U.S. Navy ships were present at the time in the South China Sea but none were near the area or endangered, according to one of the officers who is not authorized to reveal further details.
First described as "concerning" by these early U.S. officers, Lieutenant-Colonel Dave Eastburn, a Pentagon spokesman, then used the word "disturbing" when commenting on the event.
"The Pentagon was aware of the launch of Chinese missiles from the artificial structures of the South China Sea near the Spratlys Islands," Eastburn said. "What is really disturbing about this act is that it is in direct contradiction to President XI's statement. . . . that it would not militarize these artificial outposts."
But this first statement that the departure of Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles would be on the Spratlys, south of the South China Sea, seems both unlikely and unfounded - deploying weapons of this category and deploying them use from seriously missing sites of strategic depth, such as Subi Reef with its 5.52 km2 yet already the largest among the Spratly islands, would be rather a mistake because TEL gear have nowhere to shelter and then become very vulnerable targets to pre-emptive strikes, while on the continent these same ASBMs can blend into the mass easily with the extent of the Chinese road network and thanks to the numerous underground fortifications.
It should also be noted that to reach major naval targets such as aircraft carriers and helicopter carriers sailing in the South China Sea, positioning the ASBBs on the fortified reefs at the Spratleys does not have any more tactical advantages. if only in terms of scope. A deployment to the island of Hainan or to the mountainous provinces of Guizhou and Yunnan will be more than enough.
Is it, then, a personal misunderstanding of the spokesman, a wilful misinformation of the Pentagon, or a communication war effort on the part of American institutions to discredit its adversaries? However,
according to other American sources, the missiles were indeed launched from the Chinese mainland and not the Spratlys:
Faced with the Pentagon's "accusation" that the missiles were fired from the Spratlys Islands, the Chinese Ministry of Defense was quick to give its version of events - In the first response provided to the Global Times, the communications office of MoD Chino is states that "According to the annual training plan, the Southern Theatre Command of the People's Liberation Army recently conducted a real-fire exercise near the island of Hainan. This is not aimed at any particular country or target" ).
The second reply, sent to the Reuters news agency, essentially repeats the same message to the Global Times that it was only a planned live shooting exercise, adding to this: "The reports do not agree with the facts" (The relevant reports do not agree with the facts).
However, the precise point of this "denial" - does it concern the location of the firing, or the fact that it is highly sensitive anti-ship ballistic missiles? In any case the message looks curiously like a standard response that foreign journalists are used to hearing in Beijing during press conferences at this Chinese ministry...
Assuming that the Chinese MoD is true - that these firings are part of the Chinese Rocket Force's annual training plan and not a response to the joint maneuvers of the USNaval Group USS Ronald Reagan and the Japanese Navy at sea South China in June - we could then consider these ASBM launches as an extension of the exercise in January this year as the Chinese military led to southern China, where the Rockets Forces as well as other bodies (Support Force strategic, Marine...) worked together in a counter-offensive simulation. There had been rumours at the time of real shootings planned "in a few months" to put this joint work into practice.
And in reality these weekend shots of 29-30 June are more or less known in advance - indeed, a security alert had been issued by the Chinese Maritime Security Administration to signal the closure of a maritime zone for "military exercises", in the middle of the South China Sea (see red zone below).
This area, which bears the number HN-0075, prohibits access to all ships from Saturday 29 June 00:00 to Wednesday 3 July 24:00 Beijing time. It should be noted that this alert was then cancelled by HN-0078, published on 2 July, suggesting the end of the exercise.
琼航警0075
南海 2019年6月29日0000时至7月3日2400时，在
1:13-48.00N/114-10.00E
2:12-48.00N/114-10.00E
3:12-48.00N/116-02.00E
4:13-48.00N/116-02.00E
诸点连线范围内进行军事训练。禁止驶入。
琼航警0078
南海 撤销2019年琼航警0075，希各航船注意。
In parallel to this maritime access ban, we note the closure of the airspace also, this time in another area (see the yellow zone below) and at a different time. The information is described in a message to airfares (NOTAM) A3298/19 and the ban on air access at all altitudes was only valid for a short time on 1 July from 07:00 to 12:00 Beijing time.
A3298/19
Q) ZJSA/QRDCL/IV/BO/W/000/999/
A) ZJSA B) 1906302300 C) 1907010400
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N185006E1110248-N192230E11115812-N183342E1125736-N173533E1133544-N 171343E1133409-N163654E1121354-N175336E112200-N185006E1110248.
ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY DANGER AREA.
VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL
The combination of the HN-0075 marine safety alert and the NOTAM A3298/19 then allows the exact window of fire to be found, which is in fact the same as that indicated in the NOTAM. The Chinese ASBBs are therefore expected to have taken off on Monday, July 1st in the morning.
And that date is also confirmed by a U.S. military officer on condition of anonymity, quoted by Japanese media NHK, according to which six ballistic missiles were launched from the mainland towards the South China Sea on Sunday, June 30 Pacific.
Given the 15-hour difference between Beijing time (UTC-8) and Pacific time (UTC-7), this means that the tests were listed by the Americans on July 1st Beijing time.
This same source has also added an additional element - the six ASBMs have in fact struck two distinct areas at sea. But the missile type or types - namely DF-16x, DF-21D or DF-26C if not more - is still being identified.
Apart from this open question about the type or types of ASBM used, the Chinese missile departure site also remains an interesting point to study. No authentic photos or videos are available at the moment to allow the identification of the places, but by drawing a line connecting the two no-reach zones this takes us to the mountainous province of Guizhou, especially near Anshun, where new anti-ship units of the Chinese Rocket Force would be based.
The question will also be examined on the usefulness of the two zones in question - did the missile heads strike the yellow zone or the red zone instead? Knowing that the shallowest place in the red zone is still at -293 meters deep, this makes any recovery operation more difficult than if it had been in the yellow zone.
Then, at the time of the firing, where are the optical, radar and electromagnetic space satellites and constellations that China had launched over the last 10 years to trace and identify the "big ships"? Has the supersonic reconnaissance drone designed by the 611 Chengdu Institute to assess strike damage been deployed? Did the Chinese military use manoeuvrable or fixed targets at sea?
These are all questions that remain to be studied, we will not fail to return to these subjects in the near future.
To follow.
Henry K.
well, just believe as one wishes. I posted about the DF-26 earlier. It may not be in line with the USN posturing with all its carriers in the AsPac!
