TAIPEI The U.S. military must consider both conventional and
nuclear capabilities to neutralize Chinas underground nuclear
weapons storage facilities, according to a Pentagon authorization
signed into law. The new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), signed by U.S.
President Barack Obama on Jan. 2, orders the Commander of the U.S.
Strategic Command (STRATCOM) to submit a report by Aug. 15 on the
underground tunnel network used by the Peoples Republic of China
with respect to the capability of the United States to use conventional
and nuclear forces to neutralize such tunnels and what is stored within such tunnels. A Georgetown University team led by Phillip Karber conducted a
three-year study to map out Chinas complex tunnel system, which
stretches 3,000 miles. The 2011 report, Strategic Implications of Chinas Underground Great
Wall, concluded that the number of nuclear weapons estimated by
U.S. intelligence was incorrect. His team estimated that as many as
3,000 nuclear weapons could be hidden within a vast labyrinth in
several locations in China. U.S. intelligence estimates have been
reporting consistently that China had, at the most, 300 nuclear warheads in its arsenal. Karbers report presents evidence of a complex system of tunnels in
areas noted for nuclear testing and storage a far greater
subterranean cavity than needed for just 300 nuclear weapons. NDAA sections 1045, 1271 and 3119 all highlight U.S. congressional
concerns over Chinas nuclear and military modernization efforts.
Bonnie Glaser, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, doubts these sections of the NDAA will have
major policy consequences for U.S.-China relations: The intelligence
community tracks Chinas nuclear weapons closely is a federally funded research and development center going to find a new
threat? Overall, Glaser believes the new reporting requirements are a reaction
to Karbers work, making him one of a few lonely challengers to
suggest that U.S. intelligence estimates are wrong. The NDAA-directed report by STRATCOM must include identification of
the knowledge gaps regarding such nuclear weapons programs and
a discussion of the implications of any such gaps for the security of
the U.S. The report must also assess the nuclear deterrence strategy of China,
including a historical perspective and the geopolitical drivers of such
strategy, and a detailed description of the nuclear arsenal, including
the number of nuclear weapons capable of being delivered at
intercontinental range. The report will also include a comparison of the nuclear forces of the
U.S. and China, projections of the possible future nuclear arsenals of
China, a description of command-and-control functions and gaps,
assessment of the fissile material stockpile of China, and its civil and
military production capabilities and capacities. Karber takes little credit for the NDAA requirements, which many
have begun calling the Karber effect. I believe a number of events,
not least of which being Chinese testing and deployment patterns,
have motivated this tasking, and I will leave to others to assess what
part our research played in stimulating or adding motivation to it,
Karber said. Naysayers and skeptics of Karbers conclusions abound. The language
in the NDAA reflects several things, said Hans Kristensen, director,
Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. These include a general concern and fascination with Chinese military
modernization; fallout from the Karber study; claims by Karber and
retired Russian Col. Gen. Viktor Esin that China has 3,600 nuclear
warheads, which Kristensen views as erroneous and rejected by
STRATCOM; lobbying by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Commission, which see China as a small Soviet Union; and frustration among some, myself included, that the U.S. intelligence
community and military is becoming more secretive about what it
says about Chinese nuclear capabilities. Kristensen said this gradually increases the dangers of war between
China and the U.S. The two countries are dancing a dangerous dance
that will increase military tension and could potentially lead to a small
Cold War in the Pacific. He said most of the U.S. Navys ballistic-missile submarine force is
operating in the Pacific, nuclear bomber squadrons periodically
deploy to Guam and recently extended tours from three to six
months, and more naval forces are being shifted into the Pacific. The final question many analysts are asking is, how does the U.S.
use conventional and nuclear forces to neutralize such tunnels and
what is stored within such tunnels? Tests of low-yield earth-
penetrating nuclear weapons such as the B61-11 have been
disappointing with low penetration results. It is unclear if the Robust
Nuclear Earth Penetrator program or the improved B61-12 have solved the problem, but given the locations, lengths and various
depths of the tunnel system outlined in Karbers report, more than
one bomb would be needed to eliminate the threat. So what has got the U.S. Congress so spooked about Chinas
underground tunneling program? Karbers conclusions read like
Cormac McCarthys post-apocalyptic novel, The Road. Karbers paper estimates in 2020-plus that Chinas true nuclear
arsenal, if used against the U.S. as a counter-value attack, would
inflict 50 million direct casualties; plus-or-minus 50 percent would
suffer radiation sickness ranging from debilitating to life-shortening;
two-thirds of the 7,569 hospitals would be destroyed or inoperable
and half the physicians would themselves be casualties. One-third of the electrical generation capacity and 40 percent of the national food
producing agricultural land would be destroyed or exposed to
significant residual radiation. 100 million Americans would face
starvation within the first 10 years of the initial attack. Bottom line, Karbers report said, 200 million lost, and surviving
Americans will be living in the dark, on a subsistence diet, with a life
style and life expectancy equivalent to the Dark Ages.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130105/DEFREG02/301050003/New-U-S-Law-Seeks-Answers-Chinese-Nuke-Tunnels
