Chinese might face internal problems and disintegrate

[walle]

The turks are obssessed about stratfor because in George Friedman's book the next hundred years, he claims Turkey and Japan will become the new superpowers of the world. The ottoman and japanese imperialism will make a comeback and even america will not be able to compete. Heres the good part, he predicts that the turks and japs will form an alliance and launch a sneak attack against the US who will then be allied with China by then.

There goes Stratfor's credibilty right there. His books belongs in the science fiction section.

Here are some stats, in 2010 Chinese economy overtook japan (5.4) at the 5.7 trillion mark. in 2013 China's economy is 25% larger than japan (6) nominally at 8.25 trillion. How the OP think the article is still relevant bewilders me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years For a good laugh

 

[conworldus]

Just reading the wikipedia:

.....
He asserts that the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", Britain, India, and China in this conflict, and will face a coalition of the Turkish and Japanese empires.

 

[AUz]

Stratfor head also says that Turkish Military is the most powerful military outside of Britain...

He says that Turkish military will defeat Germans in an afternoon and will defeat France in an hour. There is just no competition.

@atatwolf and other turks, do you believe that?

 

[Pinoy]

Just like the former Soviet Union, China will someday implode. Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria may secede. The mountain tribes of Yunnan will also separate and to a certain extent, Hong Kong. Even Taiwan may finally decide to be on its own and forget the mainland.

 

[AUz]

Just like the former Soviet Union, China will someday implode. Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria may secede. The mountain tribes of Yunnan will also separate and to a certain extent, Hong Kong. Even Taiwan may finally decide to be on its own and forget the mainland.

Says who? A western slave country like Philippines?

Please, just kill your culture..adapt western culture..adapt their religion..give your women for their pleasure/**** industry..and enjoy this "alliance" (slavery)...

Don't talk about other nations, please.

 

[longyi]

Just like the former Soviet Union, China will someday implode. Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria may secede. The mountain tribes of Yunnan will also separate and to a certain extent, Hong Kong. Even Taiwan may finally decide to be on its own and forget the mainland.

Every Pinoy/Tsinoy's ultimate dream, isn't it?

 

[atatwolf]

Just like the former Soviet Union, China will someday implode. Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria may secede. The mountain tribes of Yunnan will also separate and to a certain extent, Hong Kong. Even Taiwan may finally decide to be on its own and forget the mainland.

Yes, those parts need to be cleaned from invaders. If China get's more compact, Chinese living standards will be much better.

Stratfor head also says that Turkish Military is the most powerful military outside of Britain...

He says that Turkish military will defeat Germans in an afternoon and will defeat France in an hour. There is just no competition.

@atatwolf and other turks, do you believe that?

He says that figuratively. Guys, please stay on topic.

There goes Stratfor's credibilty right there. His books belongs in the science fiction section.

How did he loose credibility? You are going by the falacy of "too big to fail", people on titanic also thought that. Instead of attacking the person, please attack the content, refer back to the article and read his arguments about China.

 

[Genesis]

Just like the former Soviet Union, China will someday implode. Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria may secede. The mountain tribes of Yunnan will also separate and to a certain extent, Hong Kong. Even Taiwan may finally decide to be on its own and forget the mainland.

Did you just say manchuria? Lol this is hilarious. You got no credibility.

Also read on soviet split and see which countries came from the split and their history, now compare it with Tibet, Mongolia and xinjiang and why these three became Chinese and why those countries became soviet.

The mountain tribes of Yunnan? lol they are not the pope and the location isn't vatican city.

Hong kong I can see that they may want to, but with a harsh tax like with rest of the world Hong kong will fall within 5 seconds. Taiwan can't even protect itself from the Philippines they can continue as their own little dream land if they want. I don't really care.

 

[BDforever]

china will be done within 7 years (another thread) , Chinese might face internal problems and disintegrate (this thread) ..... some people are upset about China's growth and write about fall of China to give mental peace by themselves

 

[AUz]

He says that figuratively. Guys, please stay on topic.

Ok..so timeline is figurative.

Do you believe that Turkish military power is stronger than that of France and Germany?

 

[ephone]

Where does an idiot like you get the statistics "90%" of the population lives in poverty???

Calling you an idiot is really now a compliment. I have to say sorry to those real idiots for classifying you in their class.

Can you give me a source about DC and their opinion about Stratfor? Because until now everything what Stratfor predicted came TRUE.


You clearly didn't read the arguments he gave. Just the bigness of a country doesn't mean anything. That is like saying. The titanic is soooooo big, it can't sink. China is not even Titanic.. China is a boat where 90% of the population lives in poverty.

 

[walle]

How did he loose credibility? You are going by the falacy of "too big to fail", people on titanic also thought that. Instead of attacking the person, please attack the content, refer back to the article and read his arguments about China.

Fristly, Friedman and his organisation had little crediblity to begin with. What have you got to say about his prediction of a resurgence of the ottoman empire? He also thinks Russia will disintegrate the same time as China (in 7 years time) due to a 2nd cold war.

Where did you get "too big to fail" from? Are you incapacitated mentally to read and comprehend?

Why don't you ask yourself, in the time where the majority of western economy has stagnated where the average person's purchasing power and living standards has in fact dropped China has prospered, quit using the decade old assumption Chinese economy relies on exporting to foreign nations. China herself is the 2nd largest importer of goods, the reverse could easily be said about the countries exporting to China.

Income disparity is common everywhere, there has always been the poor and wealth, class friction has always existed in modern history. With an ever expanding economy, that is the whole economic pie is getting bigger year after year. Everyone's slice increases with it.

Perhaps you would like to address the points rather than going off on your own little tangents.

 

[JSCh]

Go and read history because you have no clue. China is highly fragmented society with very different people. From what I heard from Chinese people, a chinese in the north, can't understand a Chinese in the south, and that also counts from west to east.


If you read the article you wouldn't make these comments. The past is not the same as the present. Chinese population average is getting very old. Even older than American population. This is because of one child policy. This brings a lot of problems because in teh future Chinese wouldn't be able to act as cheap labor source. Chinese economy is completely reliable on foreign economy and even today with all the investment abraod, 90% of Chinese live in abject poverty.

You are the one that is ignorant about Chinese history and culture.

The Chinese people has always been one big family with diverse members.

China is unique in that it is able to integrate, assimilate and incorporate diversity and YET at the same time maintain an effective centralized standardized written language, cultural and social custom, governance and civil administrative system.

All great empire needs to know how to do this but China did this well and lasted.

The resiliency of Chinese civilization has stood the test of time and had proven itself time and time again over the last TWO THOUSAND YEARS. The CCP being Chinese is well versed in the arts/wisdom of balancing diversity and unity.

That is why, you would never see CCP release the essential controls that is critical for national unity despite all the treacherous plot and scheme that her enemies has put on.

It is not coincidental that Chinese is the longest continuously living civilization in history. Chinese know something that others don't.

Over 90% of the Chinese national today identified themselves as Han Chinese.

Talk is cheap, we will wait and see who would disintegrate first.

 

[OrionHunter]

"China’s economy, like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states before it, will reduce its rate of growth dramatically in order to calibrate growth with the rate of return on capital and to bring its financial system into balance. To do this, it will have to deal with the resulting social and political tensions," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast.

It explains: "First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."

STRATFOR: “CHINA WILL COLLAPSE”

We've been hearing this baloney since the past decade and more but China is going from strength to strength except for a couple of temporary economic hiccups now and then.

These so called know-it-all self styled analysts are known for their idiotic rants. Nothing to see here....Move on.

 

[Beerbal]

No one knows, what lies behind Communist curtain.. USSR looked strong till it's communist curtain was pulled. Who knows what happen once Chiniese communist curtain is pulled (By Citizen of china)..