Chinese Diplomat: Expect War if US Sends Navy Ships to Taiwan

[samsara]

The United States should do exactly that, send a naval ship to dock at Taiwan & exercise with the ROCN. We'll see then if China has the guts to enact its "Anti-Secession Law" (and subsequently sign an instrument of unconditional surrender in the bombed-out hollows of Beijing a few years later) or stay put.

I dare YOUR US of A to do as such... let the world see if the Chinese RED LINE is the same as the Barack Hussein Obama's ones. I ain't sure what the Americans or Europeans think of this issue in essence... but I can tell you and other readers here that the Chinese people deem this lingering territorial issue resulted from a Civil War in the past as sacrosanct, in short it's an existential matter! But people are free to leave, incl. those Taiwanese and the Japo-Taiwanese in that island who don't want to be ruled under Chinese sovereignty, just like those folks in HKSAR are free to go.

But fortunately Donald Trump is a businessman and still has sane mind regardless his often tweet outburst... therefore YOUR version of American reckless hegemonic acts as such won't happen, at least during the Trump administration.

Btw I think you're just a fake flag waver of the Canadian one, I do believe that you're either of an Indian or Viet descent pretending to be a White folk spitting your not-so-disguised venom against the Chinese interests. Well noted anyhow!

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆

A warning to Taiwan-independence forces (10 DEC)

The minister at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Li Kexin, said Friday that he had told US lawmakers that the day US Navy vessels arrive in Kaohsiung will be the day the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) unifies Taiwan by force. His remarks have triggered an uproar in Taiwan, with protests from its "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" and Mainland Affairs Council.

After the US Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2018 in September, which enables naval vessels of Taiwan and the US to pay mutual visits, Taiwan authorities have been both delighted and dubious about the bill.

The island under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has become deficient of both direction and sense of security.

The Chinese mainland has never given up the option of Taiwan reunification by force, which is clear to people across the Taiwan Straits. But Taiwan is not sure what will prompt the PLA's actions while the DPP has been deceiving Taiwanese that the island will stay safe whatever it does.

(...)
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1079620.shtml

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Top political advisor calls for peaceful reunification across Taiwan Strait (11 DEC)

Chinese top political advisor Yu Zhengsheng said Monday the mainland will uphold "peaceful reunification" and the "one country, two systems" principle.

Yu, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, made the remarks when meeting a delegation led by Yok Mu-ming, chairman of Taiwan's New Party.

"Resolving the Taiwan issue to achieve reunification is the shared aspiration of all Chinese and the fundamental interest of the Chinese nation," said Yu, vowing the utmost sincerity and greatest efforts toward peaceful reunification.

The 1992 Consensus that embodies the one-China principle is key to ensuring cross-Strait peaceful development, Yu said, adding that history has proved and will further prove that "Taiwan independence" is a dead end.

(...)
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1079785.shtml
。。。

 

[Beast]

The United States should do exactly that, send a naval ship to dock at Taiwan & exercise with the ROCN. We'll see then if China has the guts to enact its "Anti-Secession Law" (and subsequently sign an instrument of unconditional surrender in the bombed-out hollows of Beijing a few years later) or stay put.

It will.. The problem is US currently has not guts to dock warship at Taiwan

Taiwan stands a great chance of defeating a Chinese invasion. They've humiliated you for 70 years now and will do so again if attacked.

Hi, why bring out donkey years old history to prove a thing? We are living in 2017 where there are a thousands PLA helo plus many dozens of Y-9 transport plane , not to mention IL-76 and Y-20. We can basically air drop many equipment and not to mention strong amphibious forces with large amount of PLAN asset.

The current PLA and PLAN is not the 70s. People who think current 2017 ROC is capable of defending themselves against PLA/PLAN/PLAAF invasion are just emotion and trolling. They need to get their head check.

 

[gambit]

It will.. The problem is US currently has not guts to dock warship at Taiwan

And WHEN we do, your China will do nothing.

Hi, why bring out donkey years old history to prove a thing? We are living in 2017 where there are a thousands PLA helo plus many dozens of Y-9 transport plane , not to mention IL-76 and Y-20. We can basically air drop many equipment and not to mention strong amphibious forces with large amount of PLAN asset.

The current PLA and PLAN is not the 70s. People who think current 2017 ROC is capable of defending themselves against PLA/PLAN/PLAAF invasion are just emotion and trolling. They need to get their head check.

You maybe living in 2017, but YOU are living in ignorance and denial.

Let us say your mission requires ten-ships, whether it is ten naval ships or ten aircrafts is not the point yet. As you ingress the contested battlespace, one ship got hit and forced to RTB. Obviously, your mission effectiveness is reduced by one ship. As you progress, another ship is hit but this time it is destroyed. At this point, the mission commander must make a crucial decision of whether to abort or continue. Twenty percent of his force is gone. In mission planning, it is expected that not all weapons will be delivered on target, no matter how sophisticated the delivery method maybe. In theory, if everything works perfectly and the environment allows, instead of ten-ships, maybe 8 or even just 6 are needed. But nothing is perfect in warfare regardless of what internet Chinese insists of their PLA. So now %20 of the force is gone and another %20 is factored in as potential misses, that leaves half mission efficacy.

Sure, the mission commander can still press on and probably he will, but now he must report that the odds of mission failure just increased dramatically. Now war planners must prepare another mission -- or not. If the enemy managed to deny you %20 of your attacking force, that is %20 that are NOT recoverable. You can reallocate your forces or most assuredly your factories can replace that loss. But either options takes time. Of that %20 loss, one involved the human capital, absolutely irreplaceable. What if that human loss was the mission commander himself ? Now your loss was a leader with experience and wisdom of military affairs.

What I said above is simplified, but the general points are clear. All anyone who has no military experience but is willing to be objective can extrapolate for himself and see the difficulties of waging a war to one's own satisfaction.

Make no mistake about it, no matter how much of a China nationalist you maybe, that Taiwan WILL be able to inflict more than %20 casualties for an invasion of the island. And if the US got involved...China can forget that invasion. At least %50 of the amphibious force will be sunk. The PLA will be weakened for decades as a functional military in Asia. PLA morale will plummet. Same for the Chinese general population. There will be no nuclear exchanges.

 

[F-22Raptor]

It will.. The problem is US currently has not guts to dock warship at Taiwan


Hi, why bring out donkey years old history to prove a thing? We are living in 2017 where there are a thousands PLA helo plus many dozens of Y-9 transport plane , not to mention IL-76 and Y-20. We can basically air drop many equipment and not to mention strong amphibious forces with large amount of PLAN asset.

The current PLA and PLAN is not the 70s. People who think current 2017 ROC is capable of defending themselves against PLA/PLAN/PLAAF invasion are just emotion and trolling. They need to get their head check.

I suggest reading the following article:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-...ors-can-check-chinese-naval-expansion.529472/

Taiwan stands a very good chance of repelling any attack from China and that's without the US getting involved. When you factor in US assets, a successful invasion of Taiwan becomes almost impossible.

8 US B-1 bombers alone could launch nearly 200 LRASM's at Chinese amphibious forces in multi-axis attacks. That's not including antiship Tomahawks/SM-6's launched from US destroyers or Virginia subs lying in wait around Taiwan. Hundreds of F-35's and F-22's would be deployed across dispersed airfields of the Western Pacific. Tens of thousands of Taiwanese forces would be waiting on the western beaches of Taiwan armed with coastal antiship missiles and artillery.

Chinese amphib forces are setting themselves up for a slaughter.

And WHEN we do, your China will do nothing.


You maybe living in 2017, but YOU are living in ignorance and denial.

Let us say your mission requires ten-ships, whether it is ten naval ships or ten aircrafts is not the point yet. As you ingress the contested battlespace, one ship got hit and forced to RTB. Obviously, your mission effectiveness is reduced by one ship. As you progress, another ship is hit but this time it is destroyed. At this point, the mission commander must make a crucial decision of whether to abort or continue. Twenty percent of his force is gone. In mission planning, it is expected that not all weapons will be delivered on target, no matter how sophisticated the delivery method maybe. In theory, if everything works perfectly and the environment allows, instead of ten-ships, maybe 8 or even just 6 are needed. But nothing is perfect in warfare regardless of what internet Chinese insists of their PLA. So now %20 of the force is gone and another %20 is factored in as potential misses, that leaves half mission efficacy.

Sure, the mission commander can still press on and probably he will, but now he must report that the odds of mission failure just increased dramatically. Now war planners must prepare another mission -- or not. If the enemy managed to deny you %20 of your attacking force, that is %20 that are NOT recoverable. You can reallocate your forces or most assuredly your factories can replace that loss. But either options takes time. Of that %20 loss, one involved the human capital, absolutely irreplaceable. What if that human loss was the mission commander himself ? Now your loss was a leader with experience and wisdom of military affairs.

What I said above is simplified, but the general points are clear. All anyone who has no military experience but is willing to be objective can extrapolate for himself and see the difficulties of waging a war to one's own satisfaction.

Make no mistake about it, no matter how much of a China nationalist you maybe, that Taiwan WILL be able to inflict more than %20 casualties for an invasion of the island. And if the US got involved...China can forget that invasion. At least %50 of the amphibious force will be sunk. The PLA will be weakened for decades as a functional military in Asia. PLA morale will plummet. Same for the Chinese general population. There will be nuclear exchanges.

He thinks this is some video game. Reality will be a much different story....

 

[gambit]

Chinese amphib forces are setting themselves up for a slaughter.

He thinks this is some video game. Reality will be a much different story....

Taiwanese defenses have gotten to the point where, while Taiwan cannot absolutely defeat the PLA, it is sophisticated enough and the people are determined enough, that the only option for China is the utter annihilation of the island. This is not factoring in US involvement. Once Taiwan is essentially destroyed as a functional society, PLA losses will render it mostly impotent of enforcing any Chinese plan for Asia.

 

[Kyle Sun]

And WHEN we do, your China will do nothing.

Sound familiar, isn't it?

 

[KAL-EL]

Returning to view this thread for the first time in a few days, I see that quite a few posts are now gone.

Good for the mods cleaning up the garbage

 

[Viva_Viet]

No Cnese including Cnese here willing to die in battle against US in TW, so, war against US for TW is always a cheap joke from CN.

 

[Beast]

I suggest reading the following article:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-...ors-can-check-chinese-naval-expansion.529472/

Taiwan stands a very good chance of repelling any attack from China and that's without the US getting involved. When you factor in US assets, a successful invasion of Taiwan becomes almost impossible.

8 US B-1 bombers alone could launch nearly 200 LRASM's at Chinese amphibious forces in multi-axis attacks. That's not including antiship Tomahawks/SM-6's launched from US destroyers or Virginia subs lying in wait around Taiwan. Hundreds of F-35's and F-22's would be deployed across dispersed airfields of the Western Pacific. Tens of thousands of Taiwanese forces would be waiting on the western beaches of Taiwan armed with coastal antiship missiles and artillery.

Chinese amphib forces are setting themselves up for a slaughter.




He thinks this is some video game. Reality will be a much different story....

THat is a very one side analysis with a lot of non consideration. The typical biased BS American write-up that never consider a lot of things like China rocket forces.

Does he even take into consideration, China conventional ballistic that already can cover all corner of US asset in Asia including Guam? The author purposely omitted DF-26 ABSM to make you US fanboy feel good chance against repel a Chinese invasion on Taiwan. Your B-2 not even take off will be taken out by PLA. Not too mention many other things .The strait between China mainland and Taiwan is only 130km.
The amount of mainland China asset to retake Taiwan is simply over stake against the blue forces. It is only pipedream from US fanboy to think taking Taiwan will be impossible

Telling other China is unable to retake Taiwan is just like try telling others, US invasion of Cuba is impossible.

Taiwanese defenses have gotten to the point where, while Taiwan cannot absolutely defeat the PLA, it is sophisticated enough and the people are determined enough, that the only option for China is the utter annihilation of the island. This is not factoring in US involvement. Once Taiwan is essentially destroyed as a functional society, PLA losses will render it mostly impotent of enforcing any Chinese plan for Asia.

Taiwanese people do not have so much will. End of the day, they think we are all Chinese and speak the same language. As if mainland Chinese will behave like WWII Japanese raped and killed them. When comes to matter of life and death, many of these taiwanese will simply surrender. Look at the number of cases of Taiwanese evicting national service and most of them dont even know who is their real enemy.

 

[Viva_Viet]

THat


Taiwanese people do not have so much will. End of the day, they think we are all Chinese and speak the same language. As if mainland Chinese will behave like WWII Japanese raped and killed them. When comes to matter of life and death, many of these taiwanese will simply surrender. Look at the number of cases of Taiwanese evicting national service and most of them dont even know who is their real enemy.

True, just like South VN surrendered to the Northn 1975, but when US troops, Navy still around TW, then CN never can defeat US 7th fleet.

PLAN is just like Jap navy, too easy to beat for US 7th fleet

 

[yantong1980]

True, just like South VN surrendered to the Northn 1975, but when US troops, Navy still around TW, then CN never can defeat US 7th fleet.

PLAN is just like Jap navy, too easy to beat for US 7th fleet

HAHAHAH what are you, 6 yrs old little Viet? A time traveler? This not Mao era, this is not 1975, not WW2 era don't mixed timeline dude. Beside recently the almighty US destroyer has meet their tough opponent, not PLAN or Russian but civilian ships!LOL

No Cnese including Cnese here willing to die in battle against US in TW, so, war against US for TW is always a cheap joke from CN.

Ask that to your US sugardaddy

 

[gambit]

Your B-2 not even take off will be taken out by PLA.

That is ignorant. During the Yugoslav air campaign, B-2s flew from CONUS to Yugoslavia and back.

...US invasion of Cuba is impossible.

Are you serious in saying that ? When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba existed only because we ALLOWED it to exist. The reason we have not taken over Cuba is because there is no need to do so. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Cuba ceased to be a strategic threat to US.

Taiwanese people do not have so much will. End of the day, they think we are all Chinese and speak the same language.

That is your childish emotionalism talking.

Smuggled PLA strategic docs revealed PLA's 3-phases operations to conquer Taiwan:

- Blockade and bombardment
- Amphibious assault
- Land warfare

Remember, this is assuming no US involvement.

To give the readers a bit of historical perspective, back in WW II, the US had a plan to invade Taiwan, which was under JPNese control at that time. The plan involved 500,000 US troops against 100,000 JPNese defenders. Initially, the US thought the standard 3-1 numerical advantage would be enough, but after reconnaissance of the island, the plan was revised to be 5-1 numerical advantage. Look up 'Operation Causeway'.

Extrapolating from the Battle of Saipan, the US estimated itself to suffer a conservative estimate of 150,000 casualties to take Formosa, or today's Taiwan, over at least three months of constant combat tempo. A more realistic projection was around 200,000 casualties, which compelled the abandonment of Causeway.

Here is an inconvenient truth for you: WW II era US had more amphibious assault experience than your PLA of today.

Currently, the PLA has an estimated strength of about 1.7 million troops. If the US estimated itself to lose as much as 200,000 casualties against 100,000 JPNese defenders on Taiwan, what make you think the PLA leadership could stomach sending 500,000 troops against at least 200,000 defenders ? No, sending more troops is not the answer because geography dictates landing possibilities.

If the Taiwanese are as weak willed as you believe, then you better inform the PLA leadership of your superior insight. Never mind that you never served a day in PLA uniform or even as a civilian specialist in Taiwanese affairs.

 

[YeBeWarned]

Words are cheap and war is costly ..hundred of thousands will die in a full scale warfare , let's hope there is a peaceful way to resolve this conflict .. But I do appreciate China to not go full in destruction mode they can easily do it if they just intend to take a land but walking on destructive land with thousands of dead bodies waiting too welcome the conquer force is not trophy .

 

[samsara]

That is ignorant. During the Yugoslav air campaign, B-2s flew from CONUS to Yugoslavia and back.


Are you serious in saying that ? When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba existed only because we ALLOWED it to exist. The reason we have not taken over Cuba is because there is no need to do so. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Cuba ceased to be a strategic threat to US.


That is your childish emotionalism talking.

Smuggled PLA strategic docs revealed PLA's 3-phases operations to conquer Taiwan:

- Blockade and bombardment
- Amphibious assault
- Land warfare

Remember, this is assuming no US involvement.

To give the readers a bit of historical perspective, back in WW II, the US had a plan to invade Taiwan, which was under JPNese control at that time. The plan involved 500,000 US troops against 100,000 JPNese defenders. Initially, the US thought the standard 3-1 numerical advantage would be enough, but after reconnaissance of the island, the plan was revised to be 5-1 numerical advantage. Look up 'Operation Causeway'.

Extrapolating from the Battle of Saipan, the US estimated itself to suffer a conservative estimate of 150,000 casualties to take Formosa, or today's Taiwan, over at least three months of constant combat tempo. A more realistic projection was around 200,000 casualties, which compelled the abandonment of Causeway.

Here is an inconvenient truth for you: WW II era US had more amphibious assault experience than your PLA of today.

Currently, the PLA has an estimated strength of about 1.7 million troops. If the US estimated itself to lose as much as 200,000 casualties against 100,000 JPNese defenders on Taiwan, what make you think the PLA leadership could stomach sending 500,000 troops against at least 200,000 defenders ? No, sending more troops is not the answer because geography dictates landing possibilities.

If the Taiwanese are as weak willed as you believe, then you better inform the PLA leadership of your superior insight. Never mind that you never served a day in PLA uniform or even as a civilian specialist in Taiwanese affairs.

China will NOT use force for unification of Taiwan Island UNLESS the rulers in that island do cross the RED LINE. China still prioritize the peaceful reunification among the blood brothers to solve the intra-family dispute.

Therefore, until DPP in Taipei declare the island independence as a sovereign entity or the USN ships visit Kaohsiung, we all here know that there is no way to verify your pompous statement here, either to prove or disprove these military matters due to their secrecy nature.

However, we will know that You are RIGHT if the USN warships eventually show up at Kaohsiung port as the 2018 NDAA authorizes; and WRONG if the US Naval ships never show up at the island's ports.

After all the top Chinese diplomat in the USA has warned Washington of the consequence aka. the Chinese RED LINE, a very rare practice by Chinese official to make such clear threat, unlike their counterparts in the USA.
So let's see!
。。。

 

[Trango Towers]

Oh man you are not understanding the point. Indian Forces are useful to defend India but they are useless to fight for USA. India is not a pawn India is not even in this chess game. USA will have to fight it's own war. If India leaves the western defense what makes you think we will no advance on Kashmir. We are not that good that we will wait for India to return home from war with China.

Oh nooooo we Pakistanis are perfect gentlemen. You lungi wala go fight the small China man. We Pakistani will wait for your return....honest. swear on a pakora