China's trade surplus surges to record $676.4B in 2021

[Viet]

On the exact opposite my friend, instead of complaining I am glad they are printing (and piling debt), the more the better as long as the value holds, so that I can swap that dollar for other assets before it looses value. Yes I do have a lot dollars and very happy to swap with you.

The dollar will keep its value it’s extremely unlikely that gone to change anytime soon. Well unless you can topple Biden USD and replace by Jingping yuan dollar. Most dollars flow into property, stocks and other assets of few people, not into the pockets of majority of people. Some people ask why inflation is not higher that’s the reason.
The rich getting richer, the poor eat the dust.
I bet on the Swiss franc.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

View attachment 809315

Hasn't been true in a long time.

China's forex stock is declining even as RMB appreciates.

 

[Stranagor]

On the exact opposite my friend, instead of complaining I am glad they are printing (and piling debt), the more the better as long as the value holds, so that I can swap that dollar for other assets before it looses value. Yes I do have a lot dollars and very happy to swap with you.

Also, net creditor position helps built long-term national power, because, China does not export to the US only. In fact, US has dropped from No. 1 position to the 5th in just few years. Probably, currently, its share in China's exports is around/under 10%.

Yet, trade surplus-based growth has allowed China to build up debt free infrastructure which is best in the world. It also enabled China to position itself in the very center of global production chain of many industries - a sort of controlling power China has yet to use as a tool to punish. It also facilitates RMB penetration even though China moves very incrementally on this.

As I see it, China wants the power transition to take place as painlessly as possible for the US - and rest of the US-led bloc.

 

[Song Hong]

Depending on China is not a problem at all we still use chopsticks invented by the Chinese long time ago. Ha ha.
Seriously, Nike can’t export 130 million shoes last year because lockdown in Vietnam same for thousands of other products. Vietnam exports would be $400 billion not $336 billion. I think we would reach $500 billion next year in exports.

Most Vietnamese tracing back long enough will have Chinese ancestors. People in Quang Ninh, Phu Quoc still have memories they are mixed Chinese.

 

[Shotgunner51]

China's forex stock is declining even as RMB appreciates.

Yes, China has been actively swapping Forex Reserve (FXR) for other investments, outbound FDI being the most crucial. China's FXR has been so crazily high that during its peak it constituted ~50% of all assets, what sane person would put 50% of his total wealth on cash? Especially when he has little debt, and positive cash flow every year? Japan, a big FXR hoarder, only put ~14% of their asset on FXR, while Germany at 2%. Some aggressive surplus/creditor nations practically put 0% on FXR, like Norway & UAE. Only China, and to a lesser extent Japan & KSA, is actively defending dollar status quo.

But like other big surplus/creditor countries, China has began to setup sovereign welfare fund (SWF) as a tool to manage outbound FDI and portfolio investments, by now $2T of equivalent asset under management, still small and huge room to expand. China is late to the game of investment compared to battle-hardened old players like Hong Kong, Norway, Singapore & GCC, but is picking up momentum, getting more confident and aggressive.

China used to own nothing, but today is already 3rd largest creditor nation (excluding HK) after Japan & Germany, may even get to number 1 before 2030, no more superstitious FXR-centric policy (囤积宝贵的外汇) is tolerated but modernized fund management (现代化投资基金管理).

 

[Song Hong]

SWF is a tough necessity when all currencies are free floating. The central banks used to be backed by gold. Now economists and West are arguing that gold production cannot match the rise in currency. So gold cannot be reserve.

But everyone support bitcoin even when bitcoin production will be zero in very near future.

Western economics is now in intellectual bankruptcy.

 

[Viet]

The Vietnamese govt is merely copying all the policies of the Chinese govt.
If the Vietnamese knew the color of XiJingPing's underpants, I doubt that Nguyen Phu Trong would buy the same underpants.

That’s not funny with underwear part.

 

[beijingwalker]

Exports could be key driver for China’s growth as Covid drags down spending, say analysts
PUBLISHED WED, JAN 19 202211:47 PM EST
Sumathi Bala

Exports will continue to drive China’s economy for the rest of the year as the domestic market remains sluggish, according to analysts.

Chinese leaders have indicated for many years that they want to move away from exports as the main source of growth and toward domestic consumption for sustainable economic growth, said Mattie Bekink, China director at the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network.

“But that’s certainly not what’s happened during the pandemic. So China’s economic recovery has largely been dependent upon on return to its old export driven model, while consumption has really lagged,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

“In 2020, for example, net exports contributed the largest share of Chinese GDP growth since 1997 and consumption is not even recovered yet to its pre-Covid trend, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics,” Bekink said.

Despite global disruptions of supply chains during the pandemic, China’s trade surplus rose to $676.43 billion in 2021— up from $523.99 billion in 2020, and the highest on record going back to 1950, according to official data from Wind information.

“Exports will still continue to be a very important growth driver for the Chinese economy in 2022,” Zerlina Zeng, a senior credit analyst at CreditSights, told CNBC on Wednesday.

Exports could be key driver for China's growth as Covid drags down spending, say analysts

Despite global disruptions of supply chains during the pandemic, China's trade surplus in 2021 rose to US$676.43 billion.

www.cnbc.com

 

[FuturePAF]

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1481851680471728131

trade

As long as money printer go Brrr and people still use it as the global reserve currency, everything’s copacetic.

Any indication China plans to change that?

Russia would be really interested to know because they could be kicked out of SWIFT if they invade Ukraine.

 

[beijingwalker]

As long as money printer go Brrr and people still use it as the global reserve currency, everything’s copacetic.

Any indication China plans to change that?

Russia would be really interested to know because they could be kicked out of SWIFT if they invade Ukraine.

US is digging their own graves deeper and deeper, China is waiting for the right time to swoop down on US dollars.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Chinese leaders have indicated for many years that they want to move away from exports as the main source of growth and toward domestic consumption for sustainable economic growth, said Mattie Bekink, China director at the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network.

“But that’s certainly not what’s happened during the pandemic. So China’s economic recovery has largely been dependent upon on return to its old export driven model, while consumption has really lagged,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

Nope, though export (net export to be exact) is carrying lesser weight in our economy, but don't forget investment has always been the key economic driver in China. Forget consumption which has always been a minor constituent, and will remain so within the near future.

 

[CrazyZ]

Trade war with China was a huge failure. I argued this with right wing American friends during Trump times.....many don't truly understand how the USA economy is structured. Only way USA can reduce its dependence on imports.....is to reduce the size of its economy. No government in Washington can allow this. Supply chains don't move easily and China is still very competitive in manufacturing. All these factors are just leading to record exports for China. I don't understand why USA would initiate a "war" that was doomed to fail. Washington strategists need the read Sun Tzu....“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”

 

[Stranagor]

Trade war with China was a huge failure. I argued this with right wing American friends during Trump times.....many don't truly understand how the USA economy is structured. Only way USA can reduce its dependence on imports.....is to reduce the size of its economy. No government in Washington can allow this. Supply chains don't move easily and China is still very competitive in manufacturing. All these factors are just leading to record exports for China. I don't understand why USA would initiate a "war" that was doomed to fail. Washington strategists need the read Sun Tzu....“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”

Problem is center-right Biden has endorsed, and even enlarged, Trump's tariffs and whole-of-nation war against the likes of Huawei, DJI and even SenseTime. They got derailed especially after the encounter in Anchorage.

If Trump's policies were stupid, it is definitely infectious. Maybe Biden got it during one of presidential debates.

 

[xuxu1457]

As long as money printer go Brrr and people still use it as the global reserve currency, everything’s copacetic.

Any indication China plans to change that?

Russia would be really interested to know because they could be kicked out of SWIFT if they invade Ukraine.

just waiting and see

Trade war with China was a huge failure. I argued this with right wing American friends during Trump times.....many don't truly understand how the USA economy is structured. Only way USA can reduce its dependence on imports.....is to reduce the size of its economy. No government in Washington can allow this. Supply chains don't move easily and China is still very competitive in manufacturing. All these factors are just leading to record exports for China. I don't understand why USA would initiate a "war" that was doomed to fail. Washington strategists need the read Sun Tzu....“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”

The United States only sells two things, dollars, arms.
The trade deficit is actually the export dollar.

 

[CrazyZ]

Problem is center-right Biden has endorsed, and even enlarged, Trump's tariffs and whole-of-nation war against the likes of Huawei, DJI and even SenseTime. They got derailed especially after the encounter in Anchorage.

If Trump's policies were stupid, it is definitely infectious. Maybe Biden got it during one of presidential debates.

The rich in American (mostly white men) have made fortunes by selling goods made by low cost labor over seas at inflated prices in the USA and other developed markets. These "brand" owners get the biggest slice of profits. My sense is that Chinese companies like Huawei and DJI threatened this brand monopoly.....so had to be pressured.

Trumps policies were meant to distract the masses in middle America and lead them away from the true cause of misery and decline....which was rich Americans (mostly white men). The ignorant masses in middle America were told China and other yellow/brown peoples were responsible for their problems.

For rich Americans like Trump...it solves two problems with one stone. Keeps the poor masses away from revolt against the rich and pressures any "brand" that's not owned by rich Americans. It was been a disaster for USA has a whole but it has benefited rich Americans.