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China's rebalancing strategies to ASEAN

Destro

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China has devised a set of comprehensive rebalancing strategies to Asean focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. They would strengthen Bejing's new diplomatic strongholds under the fifth generation leader, President Xi Jinping. Given the present regional strategic environment, Asean is the top priority of China's foreign policy towards neighbouring countries.

Two distinctive features of China's latest diplomatic charm offensive - long-term economic engagement and increased security commitment. The three Asean countries are major trading partners with China. Their two-way trade volume - with emphasis on "balanced trade" - would surpass US$500 billion over the overall target of Asean-China trade worth US$1 trillion in 2020. Furthermore, they are the grouping's core members with weighty influence that goes beyond their borders. Indonesia and Malaysia are also the world's leading moderate Muslim countries and non-aligned members.

Upon a close scrutiny, the Asean trips were also related to strategic prepositioning of China in the mainland and maritime Southeast Asian nations. Beijing's new blueprints come amid increased fluidity of power relations within Asean and their relations with major powers. Washington has already outlined its Asian pivot and Tokyo also became more assertive diplomatically. Both have forged closer maritime security cooperation with Asean members, which are connected to the South China Sea disputes.

On the mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand has emerged as China's closest friend - a virtual ally of sort - although it still does not have the traditional security arrangements as the US has enjoyed. Apart from growing economic interdependence, Thailand and China have agreed to increase both traditional and non-traditional cooperation including joint training of their special forces. Since December 2011, Thailand, Laos and Myanmar have been cooperative security partners with China patrolling the region's longest river, Mekong - the first multilateral security forces China engaged with foreign countries.

In coming decade, Beijing will rely on its geostrategic position linking China's southern region with the mainland's Asean countries. China has been the major dialogue partner taking up the master plan of Asean Connectivity seriously. During their visits, both Xi and Li made clear of China's readiness to invest in connectivity plans, particular the North-South corridor.

In Thailand, Li called on the Thai politicians to back the multi-billion dollars high-speed train project linking Yunnan to Bangkok, via Vientiane, in his speech at the Thai Parliament. In the future, the railway could be extended to Malaysia and Singapore.

As the chair of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting next year, the connectivity theme will also reflect on China's agenda. Other dialogue countries, while expressed interests in the Asean connectivity, have not approached Aean with financial packages. In this case, the plan to establish an infrastructure bank by Beijing is useful - so far Asean has not been able to garner sufficient fund for many super infrastructural projects. The Asian Development Bank says Asean would need at least US$60 billion annually.

Further south, China's policy towards Malaysia is distinctive due to the huge presence of oversea Chinese and currently the No. 1 Asean trading nation with China. As a conflicting party to the South China Sea dispute, Malaysia has been discreet - and very cool headed too - in pursuing bilateral negotiations and Asean sanction process. Together with Brunei, Malaysia is another claimant that has cordial ties with China.

From Beijing's vantage points, Malaysia has been listed as a friendly country, along with Indonesia that treats China as a comprehensive partner not a threat. Malaysia's pan-Asia preference in 1990's still has a strong resonance in Beijing today. Kuala Lumpur also invited Beijing to attend the first Asean meeting in July 1991, which subsequently led to current status as the grouping's most extensive bilateral relations.

In the maritime Southeast Asia, Indonesia stands out as the most important country for China. When Xi visited Jakarta and became the first foreign leader to address the National Assembly, it was a barometer of the extent both countries were willing to accommodate with each other. With further democratic consolidation and rising regional status, Indonesia is not shy to engage China in security and strategic matters. Jakarta has come up with several proposals to break the impasse of South China Sea quagmire as well as preventive and management of conflict in Asean and beyond.

When Li spoke of China's Treaty of Friendship and Neighborliness with Asean, he credited Indonesia's earlier idea of collective security in the region. With Beijing and Jakarta on the same page on strategic matters, the chance of misunderstanding between the world's second economic power and third largest democracy would be minimal - a far cry from four decades ago when China was viewed with hostility.

China's rebalancing strategies to Asean - The Nation
 
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We have a very good clue now after Xi and Li's visit to ASEAN about who can be trusted before we ram up our charm offensive. I expect within the next 10 years, we will shift toward key members of ASEAN to engage in serious security matter. I would not rule out potential sale of high-tech weaponry.
 
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With GDP per capita of 10,000 USD, 5,000 USD, and 3,500 USD for Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia respectively, these countries have all made impressive progress in economic development, and this is reflected in their sensible, confident foreign policy where they choose to cooperate rather than antagonize. Conversely, countries in the SEA region that are poorer than this, who are ruled by incompetent governments that cannot attain this minimum level of development, have a marked tendency to lash out and provoke neighboring countries in an effort to distract from their supreme domestic failings.
 
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This article is correct. I think the future of Asean will be split into 2 factions. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia will be pro-PRC and pro-arab. Singapore, Philippines and Vietnam will be pro-US and pro-Israel. Philippines and Vietnam is too poor with weak infrastructure thats why Japan and the US is now trying hard to prop them up.

Myanmar is too unstable and the rest of Asean are not big players.
 
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Thailand is good at balance between great powers. Learn the history of Thailand. It will not side with China or USA. I will plays the balance between the two. Thailand is only one country which has no colonization history in ASEAN. and in WW II, it sides with Japan firstly and then side with USA and China side.
 
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Thailand is good at balance between great powers. Learn the history of Thailand. It will not side with China or USA. I will plays the balance between the two. Thailand is only one country which has no colonization history in ASEAN. and in WW II, it sides with Japan firstly and then side with USA and China side.

Thailand did not always played the balancing game throughout its history. You mentioned yourself that Thailand sided with imperial Japan in WW2. In fact, Thailand became a Japanese protectorate in WW2. In other words, Thailand chose one side.

Thailand turned to the US because Imperial Japan was getting defeated. They managed to have a balanced relationship with both PRC and US from the 70s because at that time, PRC and US were not direct rivals, the USSR was. This is not the case anymore since the US is now antagonizing the PRC as its main enemy. PRC will not be dumb enough to let Thailand take advantage and milk money from both PRC AND US. PRC will force Thailand to pick side.
 
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Thailand did not always played the balancing game throughout its history. You mentioned yourself that Thailand sided with imperial Japan in WW2. In fact, Thailand became a Japanese protectorate in WW2. In other words, Thailand chose one side.

Thailand turned to the US because Imperial Japan was getting defeated. They managed to have a balanced relationship with both PRC and US from the 70s because at that time, PRC and US were not direct rivals, the USSR was. This is not the case anymore since the US is now antagonizing the PRC as its main enemy. PRC will not be dumb enough to let Thailand take advantage and milk money from both PRC AND US. PRC will force Thailand to pick side.

here we say USA is our best friend but China is much culturally,biological closer.
 
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here we say USA is our best friend but China is much culturally,biological closer.

I don't think it matters what they think now. The important thing is that Thailand's economy is heavily dependent on China, or will be soon.

Thailand can only play the balancing game if the US/PRC dependence and interests in Thailand is greater than Thailand's dependence and interests in the US/PRC (or if Thailand can convince the US and PRC to believe so). But now, and in the future, Thailand's dependency on the US (for politics and protection) and PRC (for Thai economy) is greater than the US/PRC 's dependency on Thailand. Thailand is in no position to play the balancing game.

And China can force Thailand to pick one side if Thailand's interests in PRC is greater than their interests in the US. I think this will happen when Thailand becomes more and more dependent on PRC for their economy.

Also, the US don't like it when there "friends" don't choose side and stay neutral. Remember when George W BUsh said "If you are not with us, then it means you are against us."
 
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Thailand is one of our major non-Nato Ally in Asia. If war breaks out they'll definitely side with us. Philippines is our natural and trusted ally. Singapore will always be on our side. Indonesia and Malaysia are both wary of China. I don't think they'll will side with the Chinese when push come to shove. Vietnam is welcoming us because they don't like and trust China. Myanmar is also starting to embrace our influence. Brunei seems neutral but definitely, will favor us over China. The only allies of China are Cambodia and Laos.
 
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Thailand is one of our major non-Nato Ally in Asia. If war breaks out they'll definitely side with us.

What was the context when the US-Thai alliance was made? I believe it was when the USSR was expanding their influence in SEA and Thailand was in real danger of getting dominated by the soviet-backed Vietnam. I don't think this is the situation anymore.

The PRC have no plan to invade Thailand and install a pupet government there so who is the US protecting the Thai from? On the other hand, Thailand is heavily dependent on PRC for their economy so I think we have a new context, or soon will be, where Thailand's interests in the PRC is greater than their interests in the US.

But of course, Thailand will choose US now because the US military is still stronger than the PLA. But what happen in the future when the US no longer have enough military power to subdue China? Thailand will not jump on the US band wagon.
 
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Thailand is one of our major non-Nato Ally in Asia. If war breaks out they'll definitely side with us. Philippines is our natural and trusted ally. Singapore will always be on our side. Indonesia and Malaysia are both wary of China. I don't think they'll will side with the Chinese when push come to shove. Vietnam is welcoming us because they don't like and trust China. Myanmar is also starting to embrace our influence. Brunei seems neutral but definitely, will favor us over China. The only allies of China are Cambodia and Laos.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar are all on our side to a varying degrees.

Brunei is neutral.

Pinoys, Viets and Singapore are pro-US.

We have close military ties with our 6 friends in ASEAN. We sell weapons, joint weapons production, military visits, etc.
Of course economically we are the king in ASEAN being the largest trade partner for many including being a major investor and technology provider. We have cultural ties too.

In Asia no one can compete with us in the long term. Asia is our backyard and as our resources build up, our influence will grow in all areas.

What was the context when the US-Thai alliance was made? I believe it was when the USSR was expanding their influence in SEA and Thailand was in real danger of getting dominated by the soviet-backed Vietnam. I don't think this is the situation anymore.

The PRC have no plan to invade Thailand and install a pupet government there so who is the US protecting the Thai from? On the other hand, Thailand is heavily dependent on PRC for their economy so I think we have a new context, or soon will be, where Thailand's interests in the PRC is greater than their interests in the US.

But of course, Thailand will choose US now because the US military is still stronger than the PLA. But what happen in the future when the US no longer have enough military power to subdue China? Thailand will not jump on the US band wagon.

Don't we have joint weapons production with Thailand?

I know we sell them weapons and I think we do military exercises with them.

No question our military relations are growing with ASEAN along with our economic relations. Military relations have not kept up with our economic relations, that's why Xi said military relations will be given more attention.
 
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Thailand is one of our major non-Nato Ally in Asia. If war breaks out they'll definitely side with us. Philippines is our natural and trusted ally. Singapore will always be on our side. Indonesia and Malaysia are both wary of China. I don't think they'll will side with the Chinese when push come to shove. Vietnam is welcoming us because they don't like and trust China. Myanmar is also starting to embrace our influence. Brunei seems neutral but definitely, will favor us over China. The only allies of China are Cambodia and Laos.

Laos is Vietnam trusted ally, as long as VPA still station in Laos, China can't buy them. Similar to Cambodia, as long as CPP still in power, they can't side with China, though China influence on Cambodia is visible.

China is surrounded by U.S. and the alliance. Some odd reason, not many countries like China, have Chinese ever asked themselves that? Most ASIAN chose to be allied with Westerns rather than China though Chinese are Asian as well.

Vietnam for example was once U.S. foe. But they quickly become friend with U.S., There's something wrong with China as you can see in here, the Chinese extremists Vs the world.

If the war breaks out now, China will be gang bang like in the 18th century where 13 countries gang bang on and humiliated China for a century.
 
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Don't we have joint weapons production with Thailand?

I know we sell them weapons and I think we do military exercises with them.

No question our military relations are growing with ASEAN along with our economic relations. Military relations have not kept up with our economic relations, that's why Xi said military relations will be given more attention.

Yes, PRC have joint weapons development program with Thailand. There is also a joint program with Indonesia. This is how you can tell who is going to ally with who. If Thailand and Indonesia have plan to join an anti-China alliance and fight China in the future like some dreamers say, then no way will they buy and have joint development like they are doing now. On the other hand, the real anti-China alliance will never buy any sensitive weapons from China (Vietnam, Philippines Singapore).

I don't think military relationship is as important as economical relationship. As long as the PLA becomes strong enough to deter the US from getting into any conflict with China, then China can use their economy to control Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Laos is Vietnam trusted ally, as long as VPA still station in Laos, China can't buy them. Similar to Cambodia, as long as CPP still in power, they can't side with China, though China influence on Cambodia is visible.

If Vietnam is controlling Laos and Cambodia like you said, then why did Vietnam failed to convince Cambodia to release an anti-China statement in one of the previous ASEAN meeting. Didn't Cambodia tell Vietnam to get lost and refused to release any statement at all?

And there was a leak where the previous Singapore leader said Laos and Cambodia are controlled by the PRC and they are nothing more than spies for the PRC in ASEAN.
 
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^^ Viet is one of the poorest counties in ASEN. So stop chest thumping. You have no influence.

No one dare to pro weak and coward China in ASEAN.

in 1979 we attack China's ally Pol Pot, China even with US's support still dare not face wt our regular forces in Cambodia.

in 1997, VN backed Mr. Hun Sen to stage a coup to arrest pro-China party (PDK) , China didn't dare to say a word to VietNam

in 2011 , VN backed Mr. Hun Sen to shell Thailand badly , China also didn't dare to say a word

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ASEAN learn well from Pol Pot's lesson, trust in China then die in near future :pop:
 
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