China’s power squeeze could drag into winter after summer drought, may need ‘special attention’

[Hamartia Antidote]

Winter is coming and China is facing a ‘grim’ power supply outlook

An extreme summer drought has left reservoirs in China struggling to retain water needed for the dry season, with Sichuan province anticipating a worst-case scenario of a 10 to 30 per cent power shortfall over the winter months.

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• Sichuan province anticipating 10 to 30 per cent power shortfall over the winter months in the worst-case scenario after being hit hard by summer droughts
• Coal producers have been boosting output, while also prioritising supply of thermal coal since early October to prepare for increased winter power demand

The lingering impact of the extreme summer drought along Yangtze River may continue to tighten the power supply in China in the coming months as water levels in major reservoirs remain low, especially if the winter is much colder under the La Nina climate phenomenon, experts said.

Sichuan province, which was hit hard by droughts and a subsequent power crisis two months ago as it relies heavily on hydropower, is anticipating a 10 to 30 per cent power shortfall over the winter months in the worst-case scenario.

A lack of rainfall and water in reservoirs and a shortage of coal and gas, as well as difficulties in retaining power generated in Sichuan and purchasing electricity from other provinces, are set to restrict supply, according to China Water, a newspaper supervised by the Ministry of Water Resources.

“The situation of guaranteeing power supply facing the peak demand in winter is grim,” said a report in late September, citing Sichuan’s economic and information department.

Sichuan’s estimate, though, was made under the worst-case scenario, according to Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at North China Electric Power University in Beijing, and the anticipated conditions may not occur due to the lessons learned in summer.

“The key is how cold the coming winter will be, which is hard to tell because of La Nina,” Yuan said.

Most parts of China tend to experience a cold winter under La Nina, a phenomenon of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific.

According to China’s National Climate Centre, La Nina is expected to continue into the following winter.

“If the coming dry season in winter is much drier than in previous years, coupled with a particularly cold weather that pulls up the load [of the power grid], this scenario would need special attention,” Yuan added.

Major coal production areas in China have been gradually boosting output, while also prioritising the supply of thermal coal since early October to prepare for increased winter power demand.

In the Yangtze River Basin, most of the rainfall occurs in the summer, with reservoirs built to balance the seasonality.

But the extreme summer drought has left reservoirs struggling to retain enough water needed for the dry season until spring.

“Our reservoirs are usually filled up with water in October or November. After that, they can start to slowly release the water reserve until it reaches a relatively low level before the flood season next year,” said Yang Dawen, a professor at the School of Civil Engineering at Tsinghua University.

“This autumn has also seen limited rainfalls, so if there is a deficit in water reserves in October, the impacts will continue into next year.”

As of Friday afternoon, the water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir stood at 157.7 metres (517 feet), far lower than the normal level of over 170 metres at the same time in the past few years, according to figures from the Changjiang Water Resources Commission and Chinese financial data provider Wind.

In Sichuan, which sits upstream, the situation has been eased by a round of rainfall in the northeast of the province earlier this month, with 20 reservoirs linked to hydropower production having retained 89 per cent of the target amount of water, according to a report from official Sichuan Daily on Wednesday.

“This round of heavy rainfall was helpful for the water storage in the area, but the overall situation of retaining water and guaranteeing supply is still severe,” said an official from Sichuan Provincial Water Resources Department.

In Jiangxi province, which is home to China’s largest freshwater lake, water volumes in 3,337 of 10,560 small and medium sized reservoirs were below the minimum level, local authorities said on Tuesday.
According to the National Climate Centre, as of Friday, large parts of Hunan and Jiangxi provinces – which sit in the middle reach of the Yangtze River – were still under medium to extreme drought conditions.
The weather may affect the sowing of winter crops, as both provinces are about to start planting rapeseed and wheat, according to Lin Guofa, a senior analyst at consultancy firm Bric Agriculture Group.

“It mainly hinges on whether there will be rainfall in the next half month to improve soil moisture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,” Lin said.

Due to low water level, the main Yangtze River shipping channel entered its dry season way ahead of its normal schedule in late September, meaning the route is no longer capable of accommodating ships with large tonnage, according to the Yangtze River Waterway Bureau.
The Yangtze River is the world’s busiest and largest waterway for inland water transport, and handles over 80 per cent of the iron ore, coal and foreign traded goods along the basin.
“If there’s enough water in the Three Gorges Reservoir, it can replenish water into the lower reaches during dry season so normal shipping can be maintained,” added Yang from Tsinghua University.
“If the Three Gorges Reservoir is not fully refilled as of now, it will be a big problem. It’s near winter, so the reservoir is less likely to be full.”