BDforever
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China has rapidly moved from an emerging popular country in Bangladesh to a lesser pedestal. For a while, China basked in the sunshine of a post-India dominated Bangladesh scenario, but it didn’t last a full season. Myanmar and Rohingyas intervened and China’s role in standing by Myanmar has eroded that position.
While China seems least bothered, it does appear that the balance of unpopularity is at play here. India has benefitted the most from this as its fence sitting on the issue which has driven a further wedge in the already not so happy relationship now looks lot less selfish. China seems a lot more like India in Bangladesh’s public opinion space.
Both China and India appear to be unsure about a standard South Asian policy where both countries are as they battle for domination. India’s disadvantage is its historical record where its treatment of the smaller neighbors in the region has not been positive. The result has been a long running resentment despite ongoing trade, culture and people to people activities. South Asian non-Indians think of the regional super power as a not very neighbor sensitive power with mega ambitions.
The biggest beneficiary of this new equation has been China, who moved into the region recently with its billions of investable surplus to feed the hunger of aspiring smaller economies. Taking advantage of the already existing welcome-mat generated by default due to India’s short sighted foreign policy, China had a honeymoon period, particularly in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
But in Bangladesh that crumbled quite rapidly as China firmly stood behind Myanmar during what was described by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sk. Hasina as “the most difficult period we have seen since the liberation war of 1971”. China was absent in such a period as its ally was Myanmar. While no stocks are crashing down, enthusiasm is less about China than before the Rohingyas marched in.
While India has a longer track-record built over many years apart from the socio-ethnic affinities, China is a new kid on the block. Its Myanmar’s greatest protector and Myanmar is the villain of the Rohingya piece. India is also seen as a backer of sorts but the sense of “betrayal’ is far less with it as its obvious that India’s own influence is not high in Myanmar. That fact has not worked in favor of China who are Myanmar’s best friend now.
Regional friends and enemies
With neither parties looking like they consider Bangladesh as a necessary friend compared to Myanmar, options rethink is inevitable. Since nobody takes the issue of Rohingya terrorism threat very seriously, most think that the time is right to look for fresh friends rather than just trash “historical enemies”
That process includes searching for new allies which is the US, the only one who has run a few extra yards in favor of Bangladesh on the issue.
Interestingly, Bangladesh has been reticent about an alliance with the US for a while and the present regime was quite unhappy with the US when America’s IS problem began and it said they were big in Bangladesh. Bangladesh denied this presence claiming that while a few IS activists may be strewn around, the majority of Jihadis are homegrown and home inspired led by several local outfits like the JMB.
The US Government spent considerable sum of money supporting or funding ‘IS is here’ type research and related activities but Sk. Hasina has been tough on this approach and thrown the research and researchers out. With IS’s fall, a better space for negotiations now exist.
The US is making positive news on the Rohingya issue which are all pro-Bangladesh. While the softness towards Aung Sun Suu Kyi among the Western liberals is high, the reaction of Europe in particular has been higher compared to the kind of benign indulgence noticed in the Indian and Chinese circles towards the Myanmar regime.
Several senior US, EU and Canadian officials have visited Bangladesh and they are more open about their support than expected. Since the West has little stake in Myanmar it’s possible for them to take such a stance. Just as China can’t and nor can India albeit at a lesser degree given their involvement.
While it doesn’t at all look like a sea change is about to occur over the Rohingya issue or kick off a new “cold war’ with the old West pitched against the ex-socialist camp, it’s clear that the situation has become more fluid than it was before even six months.
The West is smarting from China’s trade surplus gathering and investment but the Rohingya issue gives it an opportunity to occupy the moral ground. It’s a layer of sugar laid over the trade war cake but its real and everything points to a Western initiative which China will not like.
India won’t like either but with the West as its firm ally, it can hide under the big tent. How much impact of this new China-West equation will have on the Rohingya crisis is another matter but China’s image as the new knight on the white steed fighting the Indian dragon in South Asia has taken a big hit.
source: https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/11/23/chinas-popularity-bangladesh-dips-bit-myanmar-issue/
While China seems least bothered, it does appear that the balance of unpopularity is at play here. India has benefitted the most from this as its fence sitting on the issue which has driven a further wedge in the already not so happy relationship now looks lot less selfish. China seems a lot more like India in Bangladesh’s public opinion space.
Both China and India appear to be unsure about a standard South Asian policy where both countries are as they battle for domination. India’s disadvantage is its historical record where its treatment of the smaller neighbors in the region has not been positive. The result has been a long running resentment despite ongoing trade, culture and people to people activities. South Asian non-Indians think of the regional super power as a not very neighbor sensitive power with mega ambitions.
The biggest beneficiary of this new equation has been China, who moved into the region recently with its billions of investable surplus to feed the hunger of aspiring smaller economies. Taking advantage of the already existing welcome-mat generated by default due to India’s short sighted foreign policy, China had a honeymoon period, particularly in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
But in Bangladesh that crumbled quite rapidly as China firmly stood behind Myanmar during what was described by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sk. Hasina as “the most difficult period we have seen since the liberation war of 1971”. China was absent in such a period as its ally was Myanmar. While no stocks are crashing down, enthusiasm is less about China than before the Rohingyas marched in.
While India has a longer track-record built over many years apart from the socio-ethnic affinities, China is a new kid on the block. Its Myanmar’s greatest protector and Myanmar is the villain of the Rohingya piece. India is also seen as a backer of sorts but the sense of “betrayal’ is far less with it as its obvious that India’s own influence is not high in Myanmar. That fact has not worked in favor of China who are Myanmar’s best friend now.
Regional friends and enemies
With neither parties looking like they consider Bangladesh as a necessary friend compared to Myanmar, options rethink is inevitable. Since nobody takes the issue of Rohingya terrorism threat very seriously, most think that the time is right to look for fresh friends rather than just trash “historical enemies”
That process includes searching for new allies which is the US, the only one who has run a few extra yards in favor of Bangladesh on the issue.
Interestingly, Bangladesh has been reticent about an alliance with the US for a while and the present regime was quite unhappy with the US when America’s IS problem began and it said they were big in Bangladesh. Bangladesh denied this presence claiming that while a few IS activists may be strewn around, the majority of Jihadis are homegrown and home inspired led by several local outfits like the JMB.
The US Government spent considerable sum of money supporting or funding ‘IS is here’ type research and related activities but Sk. Hasina has been tough on this approach and thrown the research and researchers out. With IS’s fall, a better space for negotiations now exist.
The US is making positive news on the Rohingya issue which are all pro-Bangladesh. While the softness towards Aung Sun Suu Kyi among the Western liberals is high, the reaction of Europe in particular has been higher compared to the kind of benign indulgence noticed in the Indian and Chinese circles towards the Myanmar regime.
Several senior US, EU and Canadian officials have visited Bangladesh and they are more open about their support than expected. Since the West has little stake in Myanmar it’s possible for them to take such a stance. Just as China can’t and nor can India albeit at a lesser degree given their involvement.
While it doesn’t at all look like a sea change is about to occur over the Rohingya issue or kick off a new “cold war’ with the old West pitched against the ex-socialist camp, it’s clear that the situation has become more fluid than it was before even six months.
The West is smarting from China’s trade surplus gathering and investment but the Rohingya issue gives it an opportunity to occupy the moral ground. It’s a layer of sugar laid over the trade war cake but its real and everything points to a Western initiative which China will not like.
India won’t like either but with the West as its firm ally, it can hide under the big tent. How much impact of this new China-West equation will have on the Rohingya crisis is another matter but China’s image as the new knight on the white steed fighting the Indian dragon in South Asia has taken a big hit.
source: https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/11/23/chinas-popularity-bangladesh-dips-bit-myanmar-issue/
