China's navy no longer so inferior to Japan's, experts say

[ChineseTiger1986]

Don't be over confidant. This type of thinking might have been accurate a decade ago but is holding less weight now. 2004 japan had advanced ageis destroyers like kango and building atago while china had a bunch of junks like 051 frigates. Now china has 6 type 052c 2 type 052d with 10 more coming and developing type 055. In 10 years I think china will have the second strongest navy in the world. Currently I think both fleets are evenly matched. China has numbers advantage, Japan has technological advantage and sailors are more experienced.

You can't expect some watered down Arleigh Burke Flight I/II to match against a bunch of Type 055, which is a rival of the Zumwalt DDG and the Arleigh Burke Flight III.

Let alone about the nuclear sub, since now PLAN will finally have the Seawolf/Virginia equivalent AKA the Type 095.

My friend, I hate to say this to you but the treaty is just a "piece of paper". Will American really risk nuclear Armageddon over Japan? ehhh That is tough to say. I let an American answer that. Truthfully, you don't share any cultural link to American, nor genetic. The only country I believe the US will risk nuclear Armageddon over is Britain. That is the SINGLE country that I am very confident American will fight their life over. They have a special relationship and bond dating back to the independent day.

As far us PLAN vs JDF Navy, let be honest here.. Within 10 years, you aren't even worth for us to compete against. You are not a worthy opponent without American involvement and there is a reason I say that and I hope you can address our concern. If the US will not involved, how do you plan to address this.

1. our electronic warfare. can your country withstand million of our professional hacker who are consistently rank the best in the world?
2. our anti-satellite to knock out all your communication system.
3. our massive network of submarine infrastructure that we will build to monitor every submarine in the future within our vicinity. Let not forget, we will have 5 to 1 advantage in submarine in the near future when more modern submarine is deploy to the PLAN. Our submarine force is also more dynamic as we have variety of SSN, conventionally-powered attack, nuclear SSBN, AIP, etc..
4. our massive inventory of drones
5. DF-21D. To tell you the truth, all your helicopter carrier is a sitting duck as far as I'm concern.
6. massive arsenal of missiles which will make all our modern vessel a sitting duck. The only real threat is your submarine and this is where our Anti-Submarine warfare is being addressed with unmanned submarine and building a network of ocean floor acoustic arrays system to monitor anything hidden beneath our feet.
7. last but not least and this will devastated you but we have no intention of going this route to defeat you because it is not necessary. Mushroom cloud!

LOL

Let's not forget about HGV, and this baby will simply knock down the entire Japan probably within few minutes.

Japanese military is nothing but a joke now. It has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that even worries the PLA.

They have only 6, yes 6, Aegis type destroyers. The rest are a bunch of outdated junk.

Japanese subs are nothing special and Japanese missile arsenal pales in comparison to the PLA Second Artillery Force.

Japan wouldn't last a week.

Japanese Airforce is full of just F-16 and F-15 fighters with limited power projection.

PLA has NOTHING to worry about from the Japanese military.

Japan is not even a threat to us anymore. Not even a worthy rival.

In a war with China, Japan will get toasted for sure, whereas China won't even feel tickled at all.

 

[Nike]

PLAN's eventual adversary would be USN , so that comparison would be more apt.

Not yet, but will be

At this time, China's Navy should content to be compared with the Japan's ones.

Come on, 10 operational Nuclear powered Aircraft Carrier, with two more ships in line production, and more than 65 Arleigh Burke class Destroyer

I agree, China simply can't challenge Japan as of now because China has much more area to guard. If South China Sea Fleet leaves, who will guard the disputed islands from vietnam?

Maybe in 2024, but by then Vietnam will have the strongest navy of ASEAN and China will probably still have to fight at 2/3rd strength.

for the bold parts
You should taking Indonesia and Singapore into the note

 

[Brutas]

970 ships for Chinese navy, that's like more than all ships of US & EU (NATO) combined. With such might, China still remains a passive naval power in global stage. Strange indeed !

 

[Aepsilons]

Any conflict between China and Japan will undoubtedly bring in the US Armed Forces. The combined power of Japanese and US forces is something that China wants no part of. I can only suggest that China proceeds with caution.

Thank you for the vote of confidence, my friend. Long may our alliance and partnership be a force for peace and stability in the region.

 

[IsaacNewton]

Fleet size is never the single determining factor of the success of a naval battle. It all depends on communication, interoperability of the military departments, and strategic maneuverability of key forces. As seen in the Battle of Midway, Battle of Java Sea, Battle of Tsushima Straits, Battle of Solomon Islands.

I don't disagree with you but Tsushima is bad example. Russia had 28 ships vs japan 89. Also japanese ships were more modern modern because they just bought it from UK within last 10 years. Also russia had to travel half way around the world so ships were rusty and troops were tired. Japan had all the advantage in that battle.

 

[Aepsilons]

Currently on the internet, we are using MD5 and other encoding. Last time I heard the news about encoding was that a chinese Ph.D was able to decode MD5. Because of its important, encoding/decoding is an active field of research. I heard that there are new method that protect the tapping, instead of decoding. It is very new method and sound very sci-fi. It is called "Quantum Communication" .

Thus is the tangential aspect of technology and software. The moment a new program is created, there are processes to decode. Thus ensures the ever-continuous improvement of command and communication processes. I would relate this to scientific research, which tests current methodologies and theories. The moment a methodology is accepted , new methodologies are created that may prove efficacious in adding to body of knowledge. For example in medical biochemistry, biochemists are in the process of identifing particular proteins that is responsible for a pleiotrophic effect. The synthetic creation of repressors, co-repressors, inducers and co-inducers , as well as transcriptional factors all play a role in understanding the characteristics of a specific protein. The moment we can create a certain enhancer , we can also create newer , even better enhancers by the introduction of new codon sequences. All part of the ever-continuous march towards improvement.

This also puts another emphasis on the importance of a nation's educational system, and scientific research capabilities.

 

[Aepsilons]

I don't disagree with you but Tsushima is bad example. Russia had 28 ships vs japan 89. Also japanese ships were more modern modern because they just bought it from UK within last 10 years. Also russia had to travel half way around the world so ships were rusty and troops were tired. Japan had all the advantage in that battle.

Thank You for sharing your view on the Battle of Tsushima Straits. In my view, from analysis of Russian naval history, they have had a history of successful campaigns wherein they had a much smaller force, yet were capable of routing and utterly destroying a much larger enemy naval force.

I will call to mind the Battle of Petropavlovsk, a major battle during the Crimean War. In this battle Russia was capable of defeating a larger Allied Force composed of British and French forces, and a naval squadron of 6 battleships, whereas Russia had only few frigates. Let us call to mind the Battle of Navarino, wherein which the Russian Black Sea Fleet which was inferior in number , was capable of aiding the Great Powers (France and Britain) in defeating the Ottoman Naval Armada, which had numerical advantage and also on the home turn of the Ottoman Empire.

Historical precedent showed that Russia had the capability of defeating an enemy naval force. The Russian Baltic Fleet, was actually the cream of the Imperial Russian Navy in 1904, and their sailors and officers were far more experienced than the Japanese Navy. Our victory was on the use of communication -- the Imperial Japanese Navy made use of the telegraph, and focused and perfected on the use of Fleet Screen tactics. It proved devastating to the Russians which did not take into consideration or did not utilize communication amongst her battleships.

Lastly, Japan had more ships, but the Russian Imperial Navy had greater quality ships. The Imperial Russian Baltic Fleet fielded 8 battleships, 3 coastal battleships, 8 cruisers and 9 destroyers.

The Imperial Japanese Navy was rather weak. If you think about it, we only fielded 4 battleships, 27 older cruisers, and the rest were very small escort destroyers and frigates.

What Japan did was learning British naval tactics, particular one called Turning In Sequence, the same one used during the Battle of Trafalgar, which when used effectively, can disrupt the enemy's firing sequence.
The Imperial Japanese Navy exercised this effectively. And we introduced a new tactic that the Russians were not prepared for --- Night Attack.

Japan struck hard at night, not something the Russians were used to, or were prepared for. This alone was responsible for the loss of some 21 Russian ships, whilst we only had 3 torpedo boats sunk.

This is an example of how a much weaker force (in terms of firepower) can overpower a greater force (in firepower) by shear strategic maneuverability and decisive planning.

 

[Derek Yeh]

@BoQ77 ,

All i have to say is quality over quantity. It would be inauspicious if the 4 Escort Fleets of the JMSDF were to be ever unleashed. The consequences towards the enemy force would be devastating. We are talking about the most advanced and powerful navy in Asia-Pacific. The enemy would be gutted. And I say this modestly.


Not taking into consideration our friends, the US 7th Fleet -- the Arm of the US Pacific Command.

Quality and quantity along side with many other factors will decide the outcome of wars. Quality and quantity are equally important and one should not dismiss or falsely pretend that one is superior than others. If indeed quality over quantity, then how can you explain the outcome of Vietnam war, Korean war of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet? In all three cases, the one that had an upper hand in quality did not prevail. Vietnam and Soviet both had quantity advantage and won the war while the Chinese manage to push back the U.S.
Many factors need to be considered before one can make a judgement as to which side will win the war.

They should develop, they have a plethora of security concerns in the South China Sea , and they have security concerns in the Sea of Japan.

This article is forgetting one thing tho, the fact that Japan has the supreme advantage of having one of the largest ASW force in the world. This will make nill most of their subs, leaving the rest of their surface fleet at the mercy of our 4 Escort Fleets, which have qualitative and quantitative advantage.

By 2020, we expect to have developed 4 CBGs, centered on our Hyuga and Izumo Class Light Carriers. With our interoperability and close cooperation with with the US 7th Fleet, there is absolutely no force in Asia-Pacific that can survive against our firepower.

Japan's capability is grossly unbalanced, part of the reason why Japan had such strong ASW capability was because the U.S needed it. Or put it this way, the U.S needed Japan to counter soviet's submarine, that's why Japan with the help of the U.S is able to possess high capability in ASW. But Japan lack other offensive capability because the U.S see no needs for Japan to possess such capability. Therefore, due Japan's unique relationship with the U.S. Japan's rode of military development is different than that of many other nations.

 

[Derek Yeh]

In a war scenario, production is influenced by supplies and resources. Steel, for example, and petroleum, all key resources that China imports, would be limited in the event of a naval blockade.

The United States' was different in regards to her production capability because during WWII, she had / has an abundance of said resources. The United States was a net exporter of natural resources.

This is a dichotomy between China, because China is a net importer of said resources. This is the very reason China has vested mining investments in Africa, Australia to secure said resources. In fact, China is a net importer of scrap metal. This reiterates, as i have mentioned, her dependence on imports.

If the U.S, Japan alliance are fully commit to fight against China, then China's chance is quite slim. However, because this is fight of the three largest economy of the world. This would likely trigger intensive international response. It would be very interesting to know Russia's position in this conflict. If Russia is willing to supply natural resources to China, then the conflict will be more difficult to predict. China's has several advantages over Japan. For example: China's industrializing, therefore it is easier to transform their economy into an economy of war or China's geographical size. This is actually quite big, China's has a considerable advantage in strategic depth vis a vis Japan. All Japan's close geographical position also suggest that it may be vulnerable to China's land base ballistic missile. We would also have to see how far the battle goes, and how committed the U.S is

 

[Aepsilons]

Quality and quantity along side with many other factors will decide the outcome of wars. Quality and quantity are equally important and one should not dismiss or falsely pretend that one is superior than others. If indeed quality over quantity, then how can you explain the outcome of Vietnam war, Korean war of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet? In all three cases, the one that had an upper hand in quality did not prevail. Vietnam and Soviet both had quantity advantage and won the war while the Chinese manage to push back the U.S.
Many factors need to be considered before one can make a judgement as to which side will win the war.

Precisely. And the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force maintains a distinct and healthy qualitative and quantitative milieu in regards to key strategic vessels that would ensure maritime domination in the event of a conflict scenario.

Japan's capability is grossly unbalanced, part of the reason why Japan had such strong ASW capability was because the U.S needed it. Or put it this way, the U.S needed Japan to counter soviet's submarine, that's why Japan with the help of the U.S is able to possess high capability in ASW. But Japan lack other offensive capability because the U.S see no needs for Japan to possess such capability. Therefore, due Japan's unique relationship with the U.S. Japan's rode of military development is different than that of many other nations.

The JMSDF's ASW force negates any sub threat around our Maritime domain. This allows the entire Surface Fleet to address and focus on hostile surface vessels. Which i have already addressed in my prior posts, and thus i must emphasize the issue of fleet screen and massing ships of the line. The geographic proximity of JMSDF's 4 escort fleets allows a much rapid and cohesive negotiation , whereas the enemy must take time to form and combine their fleets, which will, be engaged upon by the Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai. The massing of the enemy's fleet assets will be limited as well because it will not leave its southern corridor unguarded. In the event of assymetric strategies that will unfold in that geographic proximity.

If the U.S, Japan alliance are fully commit to fight against China, then China's chance is quite slim. However, because this is fight of the three largest economy of the world. This would likely trigger intensive international response. It would be very interesting to know Russia's position in this conflict. If Russia is willing to supply natural resources to China, then the conflict will be more difficult to predict. China's has several advantages over Japan. For example: China's industrializing, therefore it is easier to transform their economy into an economy of war or China's geographical size. This is actually quite big, China's has a considerable advantage in strategic depth vis a vis Japan. All Japan's close geographical position also suggest that it may be vulnerable to China's land base ballistic missile. We would also have to see how far the battle goes, and how committed the U.S is

I believe that you do not fully comprehend the capability and deployment of Japan's Anti Ballistic Missile Strategem. As well, you have not taken into consideration the presence of the United States' 7th Fleet, and its associated 2-3 Carrier Battle Groups that patrols adjacent areas. The deployment of Cruisers and notable destroyers of the 7th Fleet collaborate with key vessels of the Kaijo Jeita Rengo Kantai on fleet screen duties, ASW duties, Anti-Ballistic Capability, as well as on strike capabilities.

The United States' Foreign Policy in Asia-Pacific is centered on Japan -- the greatest ally in the Asia-Pacific Region. In the event of initiation of hostilities, the mutual defense pact will be mobilized, and the combined force of the JMSDF and the USN would , for lack of a better word, not only gut the enemy's surface fleet, but would prevent the enemy's merchant fleet and assymetric sub force from negotiating into a position that would threaten logistical, command and support resources.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Any conflict between China and Japan will undoubtedly bring in the US Armed Forces. The combined power of Japanese and US forces is something that China wants no part of. I can only suggest that China proceeds with caution.

Americans like to fight a battle with overwhelming superiority and a battle that they can get away unharmed such as Irak war,
They certainly know the outcome of any conflic with China, only two options available of Americans to chose: retain world sole superpower status by having peace with China or enjoy a war of attrition with China as Korea war style wihich exhaust the resource of both nations..then who know what will become to U.S.

 

[terranMarine]

Americans like to fight a battle with overwhelming superiority and a battle that they can get away unharmed such as Irak war,
They certainly know the outcome of any conflic with China, only two options available of Americans to chose: retain world sole superpower status by having peace with China or enjoy a war of attrition with China as Korea war style wihich exhaust the resource of both nations..then who know what will become to U.S.

If USA wishes to fight a war with China both countries will exhaust their resources and sustain heavy damages. Russia will become the sole super power. USA can't afford attacking both China and Russia as we all know the Russians have the capability to f*ck USA up with their nuclear arsenal as well not just vice versa.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

China can easily beat Japan. This is not me showing favoritism. Just stating the simple fact. China have more Ship, more planes, more tanks, more soldiers & more everything than what Japan has or will produce.

Only the US can beat China like a red headed stepchild.

 

[somsak]

My opinoun:

- Without US help at all, Japan will lost the war with China. Because China can cut the oil route/ import export route disrupt sea lanes of all ships to and from Japan using subs. China has her own GPS system. China missiles are accurate. China has land base missiles that can attack Japan main island directly. Therefore Oil tanks/reservior and electric power plants and all building in Japan are at risk. While Japan may have the same ability to attack China main land, she lacks the ability to cut China oil import/export. Japan Chance become win 0 lose 100%. Japanese cities bombs, large number of japanese died. China also get her cities bombs. Casualty of Japan > China.

- With US help on intelligence but not war directly. Japan Chance with PLA navy is much better. However, China can still use submarines,DF21D to attack tankers coming to/from South China Sea. Japan pacific ocean side could be save for import export. Japan pacific ocean side could not be save for import export. This depends on whether Japan can destroy all PLA navy submarines or not. Pacific Ocean is very large. Therefore, submarines has better chance of survival in the mid of the ocean. I guess Japan Chance become win 30 lose 70%. Casualty of Japan > or = China

- With full US help,
US. will wait until Japan is exhausted, bombs, destroyed like the previous scenario ( very likely ) before play her hands. US will need to destroy China's mainland asset, like radars, Satellites command & controls, rockets launching platforms, etc. Space assets of both side will become the very very first among being attacked, Perhaps even before declare war. China will retaliate to US mainland by ICBM, Sub Launch Ballistic Missiles. If things develop to this position, no body know when the first Nuke will be used. But then finally Nuke exchange occurs. Now its a question of whose Nuke is stronger, and who can produce Nukes in war time. Anglo group will help US. It is very likely that China will lost, and the end of Chinese civilization/ Chinese as people on this plannet earth. Before China died, she will drag Japan together by Nuke all Japanese cities. Japan will also end/ wipe out from this plannet earth. US now very bad shape. Some of her population survive by migrate to Canada or Mexico but her ability to fight a single war will not survive.

Russia, India are the winners.
Now, with Anglo power weaken, Germany will be free and start building up armies. Why? Because Russia is now sole super power with her land untouched. Her strong neighbor China wiped out. Russia is very likely to take this chance to end Anglo dominance because there is only one strong country of Anglo left: England. Germany will have to think really hard whose side will be the best. Who ever win this battle between Russia/Germany/England/Canada will be the next superpower until WW4.

 

[Genesis]

Precisely. And the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force maintains a distinct and healthy qualitative and quantitative milieu in regards to key strategic vessels that would ensure maritime domination in the event of a conflict scenario.





The JMSDF's ASW force negates any sub threat around our Maritime domain. This allows the entire Surface Fleet to address and focus on hostile surface vessels. Which i have already addressed in my prior posts, and thus i must emphasize the issue of fleet screen and massing ships of the line. The geographic proximity of JMSDF's 4 escort fleets allows a much rapid and cohesive negotiation , whereas the enemy must take time to form and combine their fleets, which will, be engaged upon by the Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai. The massing of the enemy's fleet assets will be limited as well because it will not leave its southern corridor unguarded. In the event of assymetric strategies that will unfold in that geographic proximity.



I believe that you do not fully comprehend the capability and deployment of Japan's Anti Ballistic Missile Strategem. As well, you have not taken into consideration the presence of the United States' 7th Fleet, and its associated 2-3 Carrier Battle Groups that patrols adjacent areas. The deployment of Cruisers and notable destroyers of the 7th Fleet collaborate with key vessels of the Kaijo Jeita Rengo Kantai on fleet screen duties, ASW duties, Anti-Ballistic Capability, as well as on strike capabilities.

The United States' Foreign Policy in Asia-Pacific is centered on Japan -- the greatest ally in the Asia-Pacific Region. In the event of initiation of hostilities, the mutual defense pact will be mobilized, and the combined force of the JMSDF and the USN would , for lack of a better word, not only gut the enemy's surface fleet, but would prevent the enemy's merchant fleet and assymetric sub force from negotiating into a position that would threaten logistical, command and support resources.

Before we bring the US into this I will say the US won't come into it, and if they do it's because we wish it to be so. At this point no Japanese will fire the first strike unless we do something that you cannot ignore, but just short of firing. Or we make something up, either way the key to battle will be in Chinese hands.

Even if our army is 8 dudes in a tug boat, the fact we have WMDs, means no war will involved China until the very last moment.

US may very well intervene if it's a war, but it won't be a war, I be more than surprised if it last more than a week. Anything further and the risk of WMDs and end of the world is too great. Neither will go that far.


The key is the severity of the battle, it won't be a big one. It'll be over before US mobilizes.


Also take some advise, don't mention future acquisitions because we will far out number your acquisitions. Just one example, the Akizuki-class destroyer, it's quite a capable ship, we will acquire a bigger and a more modern ship in type 057, and we will out number you 6:1 by 2024.

If we go by future plans, well, I'll stop here.




To all that says oil and embargos, in a one week war it won't matter, and whoever does the American air Sea thing will either fail or end of the world, or collapse of world economy. I mean take 10 trillion dollar economy out the world and the result is happiness?