China's MAD capability, Diayou Islands, and South China Sea
Nuclear Coercion
The ultimate military power is nuclear coercion. We first saw nuclear coercion in the Korean War (1950-1953). At that time, China had not yet detonated its first atomic/fission bomb (1964) or hydrogen/thermonuclear/fusion bomb (1967).
The United States threatened to use nuclear weapons against China if the PLA Army pushed the US Army into the sea. Thus, the threat of nuclear coercion prevented a complete military victory for China on the Korean peninsula.
Today, the United States is using nuclear coercion again against China. Basically, the U.S. has more thermonuclear ICBM and SLBM thermonuclear warheads. This means in an all-out exchange, the U.S. will suffer less damage than China. Using this line of thinking, China must be circumspect in dealing with its Asian neighbors due to U.S. support for them.
To solve the problem of U.S. nuclear coercion, we will take the concept of Chinese nuclear coercion and apply it to Russia. China has plenty of MRBM/IRBM, SLBM, GLCM, and ALCM thermonuclear warheads. The goal is to transform a plentiful supply of medium-range thermonuclear warheads into thousands of long-range ICBM or SLBM thermonuclear warheads.
In the event of an U.S. nuclear attack on China, China has nothing to lose. Thus, China will unleash hundreds of intermediate-range thermonuclear warheads on Russian cities. China has created a situation where Russia has nothing to lose as well.
At this point, China and Russia have both lost. The United States is in pretty good shape with some Chinese ICBM retaliation. However, the Russians have to consider the war after the nuclear winter. If the Russians don't nuke the U.S. then the U.S. will rule the world forever.
Due to Chinese nuclear coercion, Russia has only one rational choice. Russia must nuke the U.S. to give the Russian post-nuclear war survivors an equal chance to win.
China invokes Russian nuclear umbrella
The impetus behind China's thermonuclear attack on Russian cities is to force the launch of Russian ICBMs and SLBMs in a retaliatory strike on China's behalf against the United States. This means Russia can avoid an attack on its cities if it agrees beforehand with China to launch the Russian thermonuclear arsenal against the United States if the U.S. attacks China.
By using nuclear coercion, China can force the Russians to shelter China under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Militarily speaking, the United States must consider China and Russia as joined at the hip. Any nuclear attack on China should be considered as an attack on Russia.
Overthrowing conventional military strategy
Currently, it is widely believed that China does not possess sufficient long-range thermonuclear weapons to deter the United States. Using the new strategy of attacking Russian cities, China has acquired access to the Russian thermonuclear arsenal to deter the United States. Effectively, China has acquired Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) capability against the United States.
The other pillar of conventional military wisdom is that China will sail its Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs eastward into the Pacific to bring parts of the United States within firing range. The Jin-class SSBNs are not as quiet as American subs and China lacks experience in long-range patrols. This is dangerous for China, because 50 American nuclear attack subs are waiting to intercept the Chinese Jin-class SSBNs.
We can avert the problem of losing the Jin-class SSBNs by launching their SLBMs with 288 MIRVed warheads toward Russian cities and effectively transforming them into thousands of Russian thermonuclear warheads headed for the United States.
MAD gives China a free hand in Asia
Previously, without MAD capability, China could not use its full military arsenal to win in the Diaoyu Islands and South China Sea disputes.
If the United States intervenes militarily over the Diayou Islands, China has two good replies. The first option is to abandon the conventional air and naval battle over the Diayou Islands. The PLA re-annexes Mongolia (which was part of China prior to 1945) and spends ten years to build a second Underground Great Wall about 2,000 miles long to protect about 5,000 thermonuclear warheads on 500 DF-41 ICBMs (which have 10 MIRVs per ICBM).
The second option is to nullify the entire U.S. Navy and Air Force in Asia with Chinese megaton-class EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapons. By sending a surge of 50,000 volts per meter through all electronics and electrical wiring, all American naval ships and aircraft within a 3,000-mile diameter would be rendered useless.
Both options of annexing Mongolia and using megaton-class EMPs are risky without the ability to deter the United States from the ultimate threat of all-out thermonuclear war. By attacking hundreds of Russian cities, China has acquired MAD capability to deter the United States.
Using the new Chinese MAD capability, China should feel free to re-annex Mongolia or use megaton-class EMPs whenever it feels like it.
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China's Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) against the United States
The pictures below show three Chinese Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs.
Each Jin-class SSBN carries 12 JL-2 SLBMs.
According to Jane's Defence, one JL-2 SLBM can carry 8 MIRVed thermonuclear warheads. (Source: Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems (Offensive Weapons). September 30, 2012.)
3 Chinese Jin-class SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs per SSBN x 8 MIRVs per SLBM = 288 thermonuclear warheads
This is counter-intuitive, but China can deter the United States by aiming 288 thermonuclear warheads at Russian cities. In an all-out thermonuclear war with the United States, China already knows that American nukes are headed for China. This means China is finished.
In retaliation, China wipes out 288 Russian cities and towns. Basically, Russia is finished.
China will leave all Russian nuclear forces untouched. The Russians have a choice to launch all of their ICBMs against the United States. This is important for the war after the nuclear winter. If Russia does not launch all of its ICBMs against the U.S. then the handful of Russians who survive in underground cities will have to face 310 million Americans in an undamaged America.
The only logical choice is for Russia to launch all of its MIRVed thermonuclear warheads against the U.S. to level the playing field after the nuclear winter.
Any launch of Russian nuclear missiles against China is redundant and pointless.
Since China has mutually assured destruction capability against the United States (by leveraging the Russian thermonuclear arsenal), this means the U.S. cannot pressure China in Asia or the South China Sea.
From the Bohai Sea or South China Sea, China's three Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs can maintain China's MAD capability against the United States.
Three Chinese Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs seen at dock.
By counting the launch tubes, it is obvious the Type 094 Jin-class SSBN carries 12 SLBMs.
[Note: Thank you to ChineseTiger1986 for the pictures.]