China’s miraculous growth machine is juddering to a halt

[dbc]

They invest in China big time too, you are just refuting yourself in logic.

who is they? A significant portion of FDI into China is 'round tripping' i.e. Chinese money going into HK, Singapore or Macau and then returning to China as FDI.

The orange line is the Chinese Governments record of FDI inflow from HK and Singapore. The green line is HK, Singapore governments recorded FDI outflow to China in the same period - you notice the deviation? That's round tripping since it's Chinese money returning to China it isn't really Foreign Direct Investment.

 

[beijingwalker]

who is they? A significant portion of FDI into China is 'round tripping' i.e. Chinese money going into HK, Singapore or Macau and then returning to China as FDI.

The orange line is the Chinese Governments record of FDI inflow from HK and Singapore. The green line is HK, Singapore governments recorded FDI outflow to China in the same period - you notice the deviation? That's round tripping since it's Chinese money returning to China it isn't really Foreign Direct Investment.

China invest way more overseas than the other way around, China's economy is backed by tangible products, US economy is just a big bubble, China has way better quality GDP than US, which is based on inflation, bloating stock market, money printing and fake consumption.

 

[dbc]

China's economy is backed by tangible products

..like what?

 

[beijingwalker]

..like what?

Industrial, manufacuturing, agricultural output, international trade, exports and surplus.. what about yours?

 

[dbc]

Industrial, manufacuturing, agricultural output, international trade, exports and surplus.. what about yours?

You mean this?

 

[beijingwalker]

You mean this?

Big bubble indeed, US economy is the fakest in the world.

 

[dbc]

Big bubble indeed, US economy is the fakest in the world.

lol where did you find the 'big' bubble in that graphic.

 

[beijingwalker]

lol where did you find the 'big' bubble in that graphic.

Everywhere

 

[dbc]

Everywhere

then you better see an optometrist and while you're at it learn basic economics

 

[PakFactor]

sure buddy, no one trusts Chinese GDP not even the guy who ran its economy for many years. "Man-made and unreliable" is how Li Keqiang described it. He developed his own index, it's called the Li Keqiang index

Did you know a group of Chinese economists examined data going back to 2009 and concluded GDP growth was overstated by 2% every year. You can do the math on the cumulative impact in 2023, it's overstated by 40% . Coincidently a Harvard paper published in the late 90's concluded that authoritarian regimes typically overstate GDP by 37% - strange isn't it.

China's GDP is "man-made," unreliable: top leader

China's GDP figures are "man-made" and therefore unreliable, the man who is expected to be the country's next head of government said in 2007, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.

www.reuters.com

This is why when I invest in international stocks, I very rarely invest using Index ETFs. Some gooses laying golden eggs takes a lot of work most of the time not worth it to find them.

 

[dbc]

golden eggs takes a lot of work most of the time

sure if it was easy everyone would be rich. predicting future outcomes with accuracy is the key to great returns. To do this you need data, the best data isn't open source you need a network you can trust and people with the expertise to help you draw the right conclusions. For instance, do I invest in a start up that is promising a high density, cheap battery that will last 20 years of frequent fast charging ? Well it depends on the chemistry, the ease of manufacturing, safety and data that proves the battery will deliver on its promise.

 

[leviathan]

then you better see an optometrist and while you're at it learn basic economics

What basic economics? Bank collopse in lighting speed?

 

[dbc]

What basic economics? Bank collopse in lighting speed?

yes banks collapse when its depositors withdraw deposits en masse..i.e. a bank run. Something Chinese depositors aren't allowed to do...

Chinese depositors left in dark as three local banks freeze deposits

Three banks in China's central Henan province have frozen at least $178 million of deposits, offering scant information on why or for how long, leaving firms unable to pay workers and individuals locked out of savings, depositors told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

 

[GiantPanda]

Chinas growth is declining to the point where it may never surpass US GDP. The dreams of being 2-3X the size of US GDP are long gone.

Chinas window to catch US GDP is closing fast. US GDP will likely exceed $27T this year with $30T fast approaching.

It’s not that China is collapsing, it’s your growth trend line heading into the 2030s that’s declining.

China's real economy GDP passed the US a long time ago.

China's nominal GDP in 2022 was 121T yuan. US GDP was $25T. All it takes for China to pass the US in nominal is to peg the Yuan at 4.5 Yuans to the dollar instead of the current 6.9. At 4.5 RMB to the dollar, China would have a nominal GDP of $26T.

In 1990s, it was 4 to the dollar until China began devaluing the Yuan to win in trade and the real economy. In the 1980s, the Yuan was 2 to the dollar.

Obviously beating the US in nominal is meaningless but could be easily done if you are willing to sacrifice real trade advantages with a cheaper Yuan to beat the US at nominal.

China is already a much bigger economy by far in PPP so it makes no sense to give up the trade advantages. But the truth is this: you can't have an economy like China that uses half the world's steel be smaller than anyone else. Steel goes into every modern product.

 

[dbc]

China is a much bigger economy by far. You can't have an economy that uses half the world's steel be smaller than anyone else.

The Avatar movie cost 237m$ and made 3 b$ in profit all without using any steel.