CardSharp
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This isn't going to happen without proxy wars. India could be the first.
Wrong direction and wrong set of actors.
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This isn't going to happen without proxy wars. India could be the first.
Alliances change when balance of power shifts. Countries Americans can count on in the region are basically limited to Japan, South Korea and to a less extend Vietnam and Singapore. For rest of the ASEA, the most U.S. can hope is to prevent them from bandwagoning with China.
This isn't going to happen without proxy wars. India could be the first.
Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.
The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.
In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.
The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.
Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.
The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.
In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.
The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.
Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.
The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.
In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.
The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.
What makes you think China will get attacked alone with all these powers? Do you not think North Korea, Pakistan, Burma etc would stand there with their hand behind their back?
Burma won't care
Just like mafia criminals. Make an example out of the boss and the little brothers run like bugs.
The question is now, whether India wants to be the one that's the "example", or whether it thinks that by joining a mafia, it will be the lucky one not to be shot by the storeowner they're robbing.
Now, US is across the ocean. But India is right on our border.
You are most welcome to make Example of India. China is no where near the force projection of US and US has two neighbors, and I think China has 17 or so. That in itself is a huge deal, any expansionist or belligerent posture towards even a tiny neighbor is going to rake up the things for China in many fronts.
China still has a smaller Navy than Japan.
Burma won't care
Honestly it doesn't matter. China has faced America with 16 allies before in its weakest time. It'll do it again if needed when its much stronger,
You are most welcome to make Example of India. China is no where near the force projection of US and US has two neighbors, and I think China has 17 or so. That in itself is a huge deal, any expansionist or belligerent posture towards even a tiny neighbor is going to rake up the things for China in many fronts.
China still has a smaller Navy than Japan.