China's economy is in bad shape and could stay that way for a while

[kankan326]

Like what? China's largest and most unsolvable problem is its demographics. China is still not a fully developed country yet but among major economies only South Korea has a lower TFR. China's TFR is still on a downward trend as it continues to develop.






View attachment 878014

China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what it means for the world

For the first time in 60 years, China's population is on track to decline. Sustained decreases will have an impact beyond just China's borders.

www.weforum.org

China's working-age population numbers will start falling visibly in the next decade, and towards the end of the century there will be more elderly people than working-age people.



Err... no?


View attachment 878023

US Total Fertility Rates: Toward Europe? | Newgeography.com

www.newgeography.com

1.55 is >30% higher than 1.15.

Thank you for the data first. 1.15 is 2021 number. 2020 number is 1.3. Probably covid has negative effect on birth rate. Anyway white Americans population is also declining at fast speed. Just at a little slower pace than China. But China's population is 4-5 time larger. The small difference in fertility rate won't change the fact that white Americans population will collapse faster than Chinese.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-population-shrink-60-years-world/

 

[Mista]

Thank you for the data first. 1.15 is 2021 number. 2020 number is 1.3. Probably covid has negative effect on birth rate. Anyway white Americans population is also declining at fast speed. Just at a little slower pace than China. But China's population is 4-5 time larger. The small difference in fertility rate won't change the fact that white Americans population will collapse faster than Chinese.



View attachment 878123
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-population-shrink-60-years-world/

"Faster" is technically incorrect since it's the rate of change, China's population decline will be faster and steeper than US white population. I'm also not sure why you're taking such a racialistic view by singling out just the white population in the US for comparison.

Btw, 1.55 and 1.15 is not a 'small difference' and the resulting decline is not a 'little slower'.

1.55/2.1 = ~74%; a decline of ~26% every generation or ~25 years.
1.15/2.1 = ~55%; a decline of ~45% every generation or ~25 years.

Taking a bold assumption and assume current TFRs continue for 5 generations, excluding immigration/life expectancy/gender imbalance factors:
(1.55/2.1)^5 = ~22%; there will be 22 white Americans in the 5th generation for every 100 white Americans in the current generation.
(1.15/2.1)^5 = ~5%. there will be 5 Chinese in the 5th generation for every 100 Chinese in the current generation.

5 generations is less than 200 years, it is not a very long time in history especially for a civilizational state like China.

 

[kankan326]

"Faster" is technically incorrect since it's the rate of change, China's population decline will be faster and steeper than US white population. I'm also not sure why you're taking such a racialistic view by singling out just the white population in the US for comparison.

Btw, 1.55 and 1.15 is not a 'small difference' and the resulting decline is not a 'little slower'.

1.55/2.1 = ~74%; a decline of ~26% every generation or ~25 years.
1.15/2.1 = ~55%; a decline of ~45% every generation or ~25 years.

Taking a bold assumption and assume current TFRs continue for 5 generations, excluding immigration/life expectancy/gender imbalance factors:
(1.55/2.1)^5 = ~22%; there will be 22 white Americans in the 5th generation for every 100 white Americans in the current generation.
(1.15/2.1)^5 = ~5%. there will be 5 Chinese in the 5th generation for every 100 Chinese in the current generation.

5 generations is less than 200 years, it is not a very long time in history especially for a civilizational state like China.

What about 1.3? Which is actual China's FR in 2020. Is it a small difference with 1.55? And after covid is gone, the birth rate may be higher. You don't need to all math. So far, Chinese government has not interfered its fertility problem yet. I assume the Chinese government doesn't think the situation is too bad yet. I remember some scientists said 700-800 million population is best for China. Chinese government is well known for its efficiency in implementing policies. China government could successfully implement one child policy. It can also implement 3 or 4 children policy. For example, tax those family with fewer kids. Establish public babsitting orgnizations. All CCP members must have more than 3 kids. Those who don't have more than 3 kid will not get promoted. Make law that only sons have 100% inheritance right.

 

[beijingwalker]

China bashers stubbornly take long term China's population decline for granted, it's far from the truth, China experienced population ups and downs so many time over the past several thousand years and could always somehow largely stablized it. Now China still holds several highly effective tools to reverse the decline trend which haven't be used, most familiies which hesitate to have more children is for expensive housing, some reports suggest that the government is mulling over free housing or housing subsidies to the families having more babies, if it turned out to be truth, it'll reverse the decline trend overnight and China will see an unprecedented baby boom.

 

[etylo]

Thanks Papa Xi

Happy now indians, china is going down !

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Jack Ma was made disappear only by western media, but if China's system is really that bad, why everyone in the west talks about China's rise ? and why China registered fastest growth in the human history? 30 years ago India's GDP was even bigger than China's, why now is only a fraction of her?

China did well as Walmart etc suppliers and the tyrannical CCP ensured total discipline of workforce in manufacturing. That coupled with CCP sponsored stealing of IP , research did the job. BTW I don't begrudge Chinese progress, after the kind of uncivilized colonialism Europe did to Asia and Africa, I have limited sympathies for the west.

But can't mistake tyrannt imposed discipline for some sort of greatness that some of you seem to want to believe. China is great in many ways , just not the way cyberdogs project

 

[etylo]

China did well as Walmart etc suppliers and the tyrannical CCP ensured total discipline of workforce in manufacturing. That coupled with CCP sponsored stealing of IP , research did the job. BTW I don't begrudge Chinese progress, after the kind of uncivilized colonialism Europe did to Asia and Africa, I have limited sympathies for the west.

But can't mistake tyrannt imposed discipline for some sort of greatness that some of you seem to want to believe. China is great in many ways , just not the way cyberdogs project

Stealing your white masters shit tech ? The west and you loser indian parrots have been crying that for the past decade, but you idiots cant come up with any evidence if any case ever filed, just empty accusations, shame on you losers. You loser indians rentlessly following the west to make baseless accusations of chinese stealing your masters IP just to make you useless indians feel good.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Stealing your white masters shit tech ? The west and you loser indian parrots have been crying that for the past decade, but you idiots cant come up with any evidence if any case ever filed, just empty accusations, shame on you losers.

Good, you admit to the stealing, just not evidence. UT again CCP is coming at you for exposing them.

 

[etylo]

Good, you admit to the stealing, just not evidence. UT again CCP is coming at you for exposing them.

Its only your f loser hindu logic think that way.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Its only your f loser hindu logic think that way.

Don't blame others for your foul ups.

 

[etylo]

Don't blame others for your foul ups.

Loser indian stop shitting on the forum.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Loser indian stop shitting on the forum.

Not on the forum, just you

 

[Martin Peterson]

If China's economy is in "bad" shape then the west is in a cataclysm.

Not on the forum, just you

You people are a disgrace to India.

And stop simping for the western regimes, how pathetic for an Asian.