What's new

China's Economic Miracle Is Over

Then what are we doing here?

Then you should not have raised “Andrew Breitbart” and “neo-conservative articles about the coming collapse of China”, and get affected by those articles
 
.
Then you should not have raised “Andrew Breitbart” and “neo-conservative articles about the coming collapse of China”, and get effected by those articles

huh???

and I'm not affected to be honest, what I am getting of tired is this schadenfreude, this delight in the misfortunes of others that some petty men take.
 
.
huh???

and I'm not affected to be honest, what I am getting of tired is this schadenfreude, this delight in the misfortunes of others that some petty men take.

That is fine...however equating every critical issue on China to be a neo-conservative view is gross simplification as was done by siegecrossbow in his post #52. It is not like only Indian do that, there are many Chinese on this forum who does the same to India. Anyway, I feel we are discussing non issues
 
.
That is fine...however equating every critical issue on China to be a neo-conservative view is gross simplification as was done by siegecrossbow in his post #52. It is not like only Indian do that, there are many Chinese on this forum who does the same to India. Anyway, I feel we are discussing non issues

He never did that.
 
.
That is fine...however equating every critical issue on China to be a neo-conservative view is gross simplification as was done by siegecrossbow in his post #52. It is not like only Indian do that, there are many Chinese on this forum who does the same to India. Anyway, I feel we are discussing non issues

There is a difference from being critical and being "gleeful" and frankly I think the article leans towards the latter. The author only saw the shortcomings of China and none of her strengths. If someone wrote an article on how millions of Indians are living in poverty and corruption is rampant and how maoists and terrorits will contribute to the imminent collapse of the country I think you'd think that the writer is being overtly negative as well.
 
.
There is a difference from being critical and being "gleeful" and frankly I think the article leans towards the latter. The author only saw the shortcomings of China and none of her strengths. If someone wrote an article on how millions of Indians are living in poverty and corruption is rampant and how maoists and terrorits will contribute to the imminent collapse of the country I think you'd think that the writer is being overtly negative as well.

Yes, if someone wrote how millions of Indians are living in poverty and corruption is rampant and how maoists and terrorists will contribute to the imminent collapse of the country or on Kashmir, I had think negative as well

Unlike the issues you mentioned above, issues about economy are always debatable.

The only conclusions that one can reason out of the article are

1.Low unemployment that will increase inflation, coupled with appreciating currency, is going to affect the growth rate of the Chinese economy.

2.Most of the China’s growth has been through exports, and devalued currency with lower tax rate have given more incentives to producers to further export, hence China economy is more export oriented than a domestic one

3.Mass migration of people from rural China to urban China have increased wages in turn food prices, hence food inflation

4.Higher inflation, increased unemployment, appreciating currency, rising interest rates could affect future growth rate of Chinese economy

And, IMO, all the above conclusions can be debatable
 
.
You also forget that as wages rise, workers have more ability to purchase, and regardless, domestic consumption is not LESS than exports, it's just a less major component than India; we still have 50%> domestic comsumption contribution to GDP. exports is 1.2 trillion out of 5 trillion after all. even if imports are added, import+export is only 2.2 trillion. our current problem is excess industrial production. We are just too efficient at manufacturing and make too much stuff. If exports fall and it no longer becomes profitable to work as contract manufacturers, what prevents companies from selling their previously no-name merchandise as their own brand?

inflation is a serious problem; currently, our currency is decreasing in value within the country and increasing in value outside of it, this has the double effect of reducing exports and increasing prices which depresses real wages. however, even taking off inflation, we still have GDP growth > population growth. contrast to the US, which has inflation > GDP growth and not taking into account population; that means the real wages of US workers are shrinking.
 
.
You also forget that as wages rise, workers have more ability to purchase, and regardless, domestic consumption is not LESS than exports, it's just a less major component than India; we still have 50%> domestic comsumption contribution to GDP. exports is 1.2 trillion out of 5 trillion after all. even if imports are added, import+export is only 2.2 trillion. our current problem is excess industrial production. We are just too efficient at manufacturing and make too much stuff. If exports fall and it no longer becomes profitable to work as contract manufacturers, what prevents companies from selling their previously no-name merchandise as their own brand?

I did not say that an economy that has a large percent of exports and imports is bad; neither did I say that an economy that has major component coming from domestic consumption is good. I cannot help if you assume differently. As regarding brands, brands are not that easy to build. Tell me how many brands that China has built in last 20 years, if you discount Lenovo, Haier and Huawei, and to some extent TCL

inflation is a serious problem; currently, our currency is decreasing in value within the country and increasing in value outside of it, this has the double effect of reducing exports and increasing prices which depresses real wages. however, even taking off inflation, we still have GDP growth > population growth. contrast to the US, which has inflation > GDP growth and not taking into account population; that means the real wages of US workers are shrinking.

In fact inflation is quite low and is at 4.4%
 
.
I did not say that an economy that has a large percent of exports and imports is bad; neither did I say that an economy that has major component coming from domestic consumption is good. I cannot help if you assume differently. As regarding brands, brands are not that easy to build. Tell me how many brands that China has built in last 20 years, if you discount Lenovo, Haier and Huawei, and to some extent TCL



In fact inflation is quite low and is at 4.4%

inflation for food is 10%. 36% of incomes go to food for the poorest quartile. it's one of the fundamental problems facing our economy right now. i can't imagine what would happen when real inflation + growth of labor force =< GDP growth.
 
.
inflation for food is 10%. 36% of incomes go to food for the poorest quartile. it's one of the fundamental problems facing our economy right now. i can't imagine what would happen when real inflation + growth of labor force =< GDP growth.

If growth rate of labor force is less than the growth rate of GDP, is it not that the productivity per unit of labor force has increased? I think it good for the economy…yes inflation would also increase and would unemployment
 
.
my signs are wrong, sorry. should be other way around. inflation + labor force growth >= GDP growth.
 
. .
http://images.businessweek.com/mz/1...chan=magazine+channel_news+-+global+economics

chinas exports as a percentage of GDP is 24.5&#37; which is high compared to us and japan but is about the same as india at 22.7%, Google - public data

note (chinas data is 2009 and indias is 2008)

however do note that in 2008 chinas export as percentage of GDP was 36.6% Google - public data clearly the internal consumption is rising fast(with GDP still growing) due to government realization that internal consumption needs to be promoted and the fact that there is a global recession going on, non-the-less progress is being made
 
.
http://images.businessweek.com/mz/1...chan=magazine+channel_news+-+global+economics

chinas exports as a percentage of GDP is 24.5% which is high compared to us and japan but is about the same as india at 22.7%, Google - public data

note (chinas data is 2009 and indias is 2008)

however do note that in 2008 chinas export as percentage of GDP was 36.6% Google - public data clearly the internal consumption is rising fast(with GDP still growing) due to government realization that internal consumption needs to be promoted and the fact that there is a global recession going on, non-the-less progress is being made

In fact, Netherlands has Export plus Imports as 125% of GDP. There is nothing wrong in economy being open, actually it is good that a more open economy has better scale economies and better competitive parameters; however an open economy also has some disadvantages such as sensitivity to external shocks and discourages consumerism. However, it prudent for larger economies to balance between the two…hope India becomes more open
 
. .
Back
Top Bottom