CHINA’s biggest problem? Not enough PEOPLE for the FUTURE

[Mista]

Yes, keep rising until 2050. Not declining.
There is nothing wrong with that, sunshine.

I got the Data from here.
Look at China population section, their population will keep rising until 1,437 Billion people in 2050
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Source :
https://web.archive.org/web/2017020...international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

These projections cite the UN's projection, and honestly the UN's projection is BS. They assumed China's TFR will keep rising throughout the century as China develops which defy conventional wisdom we see in developing countries.

生育率被严重高估
第一财经查询资料显示，郑真真的预测与联合国人口署的中方案一致，而中国人口减少到6亿的预测则与联合国人口署的低方案比较接近。

2015年7月底，联合国人口署发布《2015年世界人口展望》，预计中国人口到本世纪末将回落到10.04亿。这是联合国的中预测值，其低预测值是6.13亿，高预测值则为15.55亿。

黄文政认为，联合国对中国人口的低预测值比较合理，而中预测值严重高估，更不要说高预测值了。

人口预测的关键假设是对未来的总和生育率的设定。根据联合国中预测方案，中国2010-2015年的总和生育率被假设为1.55,2015到2020年为1.59,2020-2030年为1.66,2045-2050年为1.74,2095-2100为1.81。

李建新、王广州认为，这组数据明显高于中国的实际生育率水平。易富贤、黄文政则认为即使强力鼓励生育也不可能将生育率提升到如此之高。

中国现在的生育水平到底是多少呢？根据国家统计局的数据，中国在2010、2011、2012、2013年的总和生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24。2015年，中国1%人口普查显示，中国的总和生育率仅为1.25。但是由于种种原因，这些官方统计数据并没有被卫计委等相关部门充分采信。

黄文政分析，联合国在2010年报告中对2010-2015年中国生育率的低、中、高预测值分别为1.31、1.56、1.81，即使是其低预测值1.31，也比中国国家统计局从2010-2013年数据的最高值的1.26还要高4%，比这4年的平均值要高11%。

人口学者梁建章、黄文政针对联合国的该预测曾撰文《联合国不应严重高估中国未来人口》称，联合国长期高估中国生育水平和人口增量。比如，在2000年联合国预测中国2010年到2015年的总和生育率为1.9,2015年预测中又调低到1.55，但中国实际生育率水平仅为1.2左右。

易富贤也注意到这一问题。他表示，联合国对中国的人口预测一直以来都不准确。比如联合国2012年版《世界人口展望》预测2015年人口会达到14.0159亿，但是国家统计局的统计公报显示2015年只有13.7462亿，三年的预测就误差了2697万。

As a country develops, the TFR should fall instead of rise. Especially in East Asian cultures with the problem of low TFR.

 

[SgtGungHo]

Read my post carefully, gung ho
I talk about Robot Population in China, doesn't matter where it originated.

In 2019 alone, almost 40% of all Robot Shipments worldwide, goes to Chinese Factories. Crazy !
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You miss my point. Automation and robot shipments are pointless if they are not accompanied with development of indigenous robotics industry. Robots just don't run by themselves, but have to be operated, serviced and maintained by skilled labor. In fact, those robots could be shipped else where where labor costs are cheaper. From my understanding, China is vulnerable to this particular risk as their young population is projected to shrink.

 

[Daniel808]

These projections cite the UN's projection, and honestly the UN's projection is BS. They assumed China's TFR will keep rising throughout the century as China develops which defy conventional wisdom we see in developing countries.



As a country develops, the TFR should fall instead of rise. Especially in East Asian cultures with the problem of low TFR.

If UN projection BS, which one I should to trust? CNN? BBC? Newyorktimes?

You miss my point. Automation and robot shipments are pointless if they are not accompanied with development of indigenous robotics industry. Robots just don't run by themselves, but have to be operated, serviced and maintained by skilled labor. In fact, those robots could be shipped else where where labor costs are cheaper. From my understanding, China is vulnerable to this particular risk as their young population is projected to shrink.

Of course they not sleep like indian.
They developing their indigenous Industry robot also, including many tech transfer from KUKA.
Robot Industry also one of their key sector in Made in China 2025 Development.


You don't understand, how much robots can do nowadays.

The supervisor will be human, but the workers will be robots.
Imagine how many human workers that robots can replace. Farmers, Sorters, Warehouse staff, Waiters, Cashiers, and many others. Hundreds of thousands of them. In the future with Development of AI, Robots will do much more complicated jobs

A doom for country like india

 

[Mista]

If UN projection BS, which one I should to trust? CNN? BBC? Newyorktimes?

I cited from a Chinese source and the TFR statistics I cited are straight from the National Bureau of Statistics in China.

You're the one who's citing from a Western source because you can't read Chinese.

 

[Leishangthem]

Don’t you see that China still has two child policy in place . If China was actually worried about its population shrinkage , they would’ve scrapped that, and even make incentives for more children .

 

[Daniel808]

I cited from a Chinese source and the TFR statistics I cited are straight from the National Bureau of Statistics in China.

You're the one who's citing from a Western source because you can't read Chinese.

who said I cannot read Chinese?
Don't get too emotional with me, if I busted your points
You playing too much with your indonesian trollers lol

 

[Mista]

Don’t you see that China still has two child policy in place . If China was actually worried about its population shrinkage , they would’ve scrapped that, and even make incentives for more children .

The policy is still in place simply because of political inertia.

If you follow the Chinese state media, for years they have been talking about solving their aging population, ways to raise the TFR and not to follow Japan's demographic footsteps, even before the One-Child Policy is changed.

who said I cannot read Chinese?

So how about countering my post #17 in Chinese, instead of deflecting? If you can read, you should've known that the figures are cited from the NBS in China and not the Western news sources you claimed. Nice try.

 

[Daniel808]

The policy is still in place simply because of political inertia.

If you follow the Chinese state media, for years they have been talking about solving their aging population, ways to raise the TFR and not to follow Japan's demographic footsteps, even before the One-Child policy is changed.



So how about countering my post #17 in Chinese, instead of deflecting? If you can read, you should've known that the figures are cited from the NBS and not the Western sources you claimed. Nice try.

my reply is post #19.
Read properly, before countering me.

 

[SgtGungHo]

Robot Industry also one of their key sector in Made in China 2025 Development.

Just like many electronics and mechanical goods, I don't think they will be made of Chinese indigenous technologies. The Chinese companies that are relevant (Siasun, Honyen and etc) in the field lag behind of companies from Japan, Europe and America and I don't see any change in the industry at the moment that may shift the trend in favor of Chinese firms within 5 years.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

You miss my point. Automation and robot shipments are pointless if they are not accompanied with development of indigenous robotics industry. Robots just don't run by themselves, but have to be operated, serviced and maintained by skilled labor. In fact, those robots could be shipped else where where labor costs are cheaper. From my understanding, China is vulnerable to this particular risk as their young population is projected to shrink.

Robots, as in the ones that have multiaxis motion, are just one part of industrial automation. In addition, many industrial machines are not bought, they're built in house. Example is below, with the following machines being in-house designed: chemical handling, battery handling, laser welding, etc.

 

[xuxu1457]

Some factories have become dark factories, and all the lights are turned off when the factories are running, because there are no people, all machines, and no lights are needed.
In fact, China has never had a real one-child policy.I am 35 years old, I have two sisters, I have two children.Ethnic minorities in China can give birth at will, Han can give birth to 2-3 children in rural areas, and Han can give birth to 1 child in urban areas.In 2016, this norm has been abolished, and people in the city can also have two children from January 1, 2016.

Ethnic minorities in China can give birth at will,there is no limit.So there are a lot of fake minorities.Or the children of Han and minority nationalities after marriage are written as minority nationalities.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Automation only affects certain part of the economy like manufacturing. China needed more people than it currently have in order to enjoy the same economic progress.

 

[SgtGungHo]

Robots, as in the ones that have multiaxis motion, are just one part of industrial automation. In addition, many industrial machines are not bought, they're built in house. Example is below, with the following machines being in-house designed: chemical handling, battery handling, laser welding, etc.

Robots are one of THE most important part of industrial automation. Anyone who denies this doesn't understand manufacturing. "Robots" aren't only multi-axial industrial robots, but also other machines that are programmed by software to carry out a series of complex tasks automatically. This includes molding, cutting, packing, injecting and many more. Your very video proves my point. The factory cannot be ran without robots anymore.

Companies like Foxconn closely collaborate robotics companies such as FANUC and Yaskawa to increase automation and efficiency of their factories, but at the end, it is robotics companies such as FANUC and Yaskawa build the vast majority of robots & machines for Foxconn and they are not "built in-house" by Foxconn.

 

[Song Hong]

The worst TFR as per CIA factbook is Singapore. All East Asian society except Vietnam have fertility problem.

Singapore has worst working culture in the world. Her people are mercenary. Her women are spoiled, materialistic and lack of virtue.

GoS responds to horrible TFR by flooding Singapore with migrants, and it creates many problems today.

This is a government who spurn the people. The elites of Singapore forget who make them so rich. Fortunately a small number of Singaporeans rebelled and voted against the government. Then GoS implemented a more "pro Old people" package.

This shall be discussed more.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Robots are one of THE most important part of industrial automation. Anyone who denies this doesn't understand manufacturing. "Robots" aren't only multi-axial industrial robots, but also other machines that are programmed by software to carry out a series of complex tasks automatically. This includes molding, cutting, packing, injecting and many more. Your very video proves my point. The factory cannot be ran without robots anymore.

Companies like Foxconn closely collaborate robotics companies such as FANUC and Yaskawa to increase automation and efficiency of their factories, but at the end, it is robotics companies such as FANUC and Yaskawa build the vast majority of robots & machines for Foxconn and they are not "built in-house" by Foxconn.

I guess we have different definitions of robots. I'd say those are examples of industrial machinery much like a chemical reactor or a stamping machine, while I think of robots as something with joints performing more complex tasks. And those machines, if you watched the video, were all custom designed in house. They weren't bought, and thus would not be captured in the sales data.

From what I've seen it seems like everyone calls anything that even slightly moves by itself a robot.