Genesis
SENIOR MEMBER
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- Mar 26, 2013
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Awkward, awkward, awkward, China is in that tweenage stage, where you are too young to drink, too old to take naps. Always rebellious and never any real impact. You have enough ability to make other's life hell, but not enough to get your way.
That ladies and gentlemen is the problem with present day China, we are growing, at a point where we can rock the powers that be, but not enough to actually change them, we can appear to be giant, but in fact, still rather small relative to the big boys, or in this case big boy.
Economically, China is big, at 10+ trillion this year, we will easily be the second biggest economy, but at 6-7 trillion less than America, it's still rather small. We are the biggest trade nation, but a lot of what America exports are not really on the trade list. We are getting richer, and more sophisticated, but on a wider scale, our interior is still rather "Sub Saharan", and while our coastal cities are not really the second coming of the big apple.
While we are the dominate force in manufacturing, we still lack the prestige to push higher end products, while we are invest large amounts of cash everywhere, it is still dwarfed by the established powers. While people have called us a super power, we are not even much of a great power.
Militarily, we are advancing in a blistering speed, bulking up the ground force in ways only a big nation can do. Having said that the land forces still faces problems, the recent exercises are aimed at finding problems, cross region deployments, live fire exercises, new kind of exercises, real combat situation drills, and more have found real deficiencies in the army. The overwhelming response is current battalion, regiment commanders lack the experience to even command an army as well equipped as China's. They are still using old ideas commanding a new army.
Good news is that new doctrine, new promotions, and new exercises are bringing the PLA to a new level, but this could take a decade before it's effects can be noticeable on the battlefield.
There's also the fact we currently lack a 10-20-30 ton helicopter that is completely home grown and air lift capabilities as well as heavy gunships and drones is another field we need improvement.
Though on this front, Y-9, Y-20, Z-20, and more are coming as well as other specialty aircraft and helicopters.
In terms of ariforce, we are at a worse turning point than even the army, we have advance fighters, but with the recent emphasis on home grown manufacturing of all critical parts, engines have slowed the development of the PLA to almost a standstill.
No reliable engines means no new fighters, means the J-7s and J-8s will need to stay a while longer. This has sapped the air force's power to no end and made the PLAAF a much weaker force than otherwise would be.
In terms of training, new methods, new doctrine, new emphasis has made the PLAAF a well trained force, but again, as we are participating more in international events, this will be greatly enhanced, but today, we can at least say, in terms of others who have no real recent combat experience, we are ahead of the curve.
In terms of engines, we are making head way, from WS-10-WS-20, all sorts of engines are starting to come together, another 10 years, and the likelihood of true self sufficient in air power could be achieved. As an aside, a 900 million dollar factor is already being built for next year's production of WS-13, powering such aircraft as JF-17.
But to be able to achieve the same ratio Americans set for themselves against less foes, one to two decade is needed still, not least because of the current hardware problems we face today.
In terms of navy, we seen massive growth in the quality of equipment, ranging from advance platforms such as 054a, 052C/D, 056, and the future 055, 054B/057, are all top of the line for what they are build for ships of their class.
Having said that, we still need work on experience, strategy and carriers.
Our carrier is formidable, but we face problems in that, we don't have enough pilots, we need naval aviation academy and experience with the carrier in which only time can provide, I estimate true combat capabilities is at least 5-10 years away, and probably closer to 10 than 5.
We are also lacking in anti sub operations, though the 054s and the 056s are designed to have sub hunting abilities, and we are testing a few models for sub hunting planes, and with introduction of new and bigger aircrafts, it's only a matter of time before the Seas are filled with our planes surveying every inch of the China Seas.
Politically, we still need work, while we are creating new organizations, they are someway off from being able to have a tangible result, but with the new base in Shanghai for NDB, and SCO's growing role, as well as our role in the security council, our increasing economic clout, we are beginning to assert more outwards.
On the humanitarian front, we still need to do more, but as I said previously, we are still a developing country and what resource we do have need to be focused inwards.
All in all, this front we are making headway, but like the rest, it's not really enough to shake the foundation.
To sum up, China is really catching up, but right now we are sort of in a phase where we are making in roads, and making progress, but still not powerful enough to do anything about it. As time goes on this awkwardness would change, but it's really annoying to be in it in the first place.
This to me is the main reason for all this tension in the region, not enough to solve it, but enough to disturb it.
P.S. before some people jump in, I only mean we are in this phase relative to US, not most likely, you. We are far and above most of the nations who are not US if not only US.
That ladies and gentlemen is the problem with present day China, we are growing, at a point where we can rock the powers that be, but not enough to actually change them, we can appear to be giant, but in fact, still rather small relative to the big boys, or in this case big boy.
Economically, China is big, at 10+ trillion this year, we will easily be the second biggest economy, but at 6-7 trillion less than America, it's still rather small. We are the biggest trade nation, but a lot of what America exports are not really on the trade list. We are getting richer, and more sophisticated, but on a wider scale, our interior is still rather "Sub Saharan", and while our coastal cities are not really the second coming of the big apple.
While we are the dominate force in manufacturing, we still lack the prestige to push higher end products, while we are invest large amounts of cash everywhere, it is still dwarfed by the established powers. While people have called us a super power, we are not even much of a great power.
Militarily, we are advancing in a blistering speed, bulking up the ground force in ways only a big nation can do. Having said that the land forces still faces problems, the recent exercises are aimed at finding problems, cross region deployments, live fire exercises, new kind of exercises, real combat situation drills, and more have found real deficiencies in the army. The overwhelming response is current battalion, regiment commanders lack the experience to even command an army as well equipped as China's. They are still using old ideas commanding a new army.
Good news is that new doctrine, new promotions, and new exercises are bringing the PLA to a new level, but this could take a decade before it's effects can be noticeable on the battlefield.
There's also the fact we currently lack a 10-20-30 ton helicopter that is completely home grown and air lift capabilities as well as heavy gunships and drones is another field we need improvement.
Though on this front, Y-9, Y-20, Z-20, and more are coming as well as other specialty aircraft and helicopters.
In terms of ariforce, we are at a worse turning point than even the army, we have advance fighters, but with the recent emphasis on home grown manufacturing of all critical parts, engines have slowed the development of the PLA to almost a standstill.
No reliable engines means no new fighters, means the J-7s and J-8s will need to stay a while longer. This has sapped the air force's power to no end and made the PLAAF a much weaker force than otherwise would be.
In terms of training, new methods, new doctrine, new emphasis has made the PLAAF a well trained force, but again, as we are participating more in international events, this will be greatly enhanced, but today, we can at least say, in terms of others who have no real recent combat experience, we are ahead of the curve.
In terms of engines, we are making head way, from WS-10-WS-20, all sorts of engines are starting to come together, another 10 years, and the likelihood of true self sufficient in air power could be achieved. As an aside, a 900 million dollar factor is already being built for next year's production of WS-13, powering such aircraft as JF-17.
But to be able to achieve the same ratio Americans set for themselves against less foes, one to two decade is needed still, not least because of the current hardware problems we face today.
In terms of navy, we seen massive growth in the quality of equipment, ranging from advance platforms such as 054a, 052C/D, 056, and the future 055, 054B/057, are all top of the line for what they are build for ships of their class.
Having said that, we still need work on experience, strategy and carriers.
Our carrier is formidable, but we face problems in that, we don't have enough pilots, we need naval aviation academy and experience with the carrier in which only time can provide, I estimate true combat capabilities is at least 5-10 years away, and probably closer to 10 than 5.
We are also lacking in anti sub operations, though the 054s and the 056s are designed to have sub hunting abilities, and we are testing a few models for sub hunting planes, and with introduction of new and bigger aircrafts, it's only a matter of time before the Seas are filled with our planes surveying every inch of the China Seas.
Politically, we still need work, while we are creating new organizations, they are someway off from being able to have a tangible result, but with the new base in Shanghai for NDB, and SCO's growing role, as well as our role in the security council, our increasing economic clout, we are beginning to assert more outwards.
On the humanitarian front, we still need to do more, but as I said previously, we are still a developing country and what resource we do have need to be focused inwards.
All in all, this front we are making headway, but like the rest, it's not really enough to shake the foundation.
To sum up, China is really catching up, but right now we are sort of in a phase where we are making in roads, and making progress, but still not powerful enough to do anything about it. As time goes on this awkwardness would change, but it's really annoying to be in it in the first place.
This to me is the main reason for all this tension in the region, not enough to solve it, but enough to disturb it.
P.S. before some people jump in, I only mean we are in this phase relative to US, not most likely, you. We are far and above most of the nations who are not US if not only US.
