China’s 2015 GDP Was Exaggerated By Fake Data, Analysis Shows

[NakedLunch]

India GDP per person equal to Pakistan, even the billions Indian population currently can’t compete with China on the size and scale of their respected country economy.

Dont worry about india...we have your back China. These Indians are delusional fools. We Paksitanis know them very well.

 

[Kai Liu]

Fake or not, I believe what I see:

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

China’s growth rate in 2015 was probably overstated by “a couple of percentage points,” according to new data analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Gross domestic product at the provincial level was consistently overstated between 2011 and 2015, calculations that cross-referenced energy consumption with output data show. But the exaggeration appears to have shrunk in 2016 as a method of inflating fiscal revenues was closed off. The national GDP number was probably overstated in 2015 as well, according to the research by Bloomberg economists Tom Orlik and Qian Wan.

Chinese data has long been dogged by concerns over fudging, with a recent spate of revisions to provincial growth and revenue data reviving questions about the reliability of national statistics. In the past year, the rustbelt province of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia in China’s north have admitted to cooking their data.

Data faking also raises questions about the country’s debt picture, according to the economists, because if revenue and output growth is lower than people thought, there is less money to for local governments to make repayments.

The national GDP reading for 2015 already stood out because growth only slowed by 0.4 percentage point to 6.9 percent, in a year when China endured a botched yuan devaluation and severe financial market turbulence.

Though a persistent gap between the sum of provincial data and national GDP signals that officials have previously corrected for the problem, Orlik and Wan note that in 2015, the gap between the two data points narrowed.

Furthermore, the economists say that if you use electricity use as a proxy for actual economic growth, provincial GDP ran “between 1.2 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points lower than the official growth rate” between 2011 and 2015.

China is probing fake data at the provincial level, with local government officials incentivized in the past to inflate the numbers as a way of advancing their careers. The provinces of Qinghai, Yunnan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Shaanxi stood out as having both the most questionable growth data and the highest ratio of debt to GDP, according to the report.

If Beijing does start to allow defaults on borrowings of local governments, those provinces may face the toughest scrutiny from investors worried about credit risk, the economists wrote.

“It is no easier to have confidence in alternative estimates of China’s growth than it is in the heavily-politicized and mysteriously-stable official data,” Orlik and Wan argue. “That said, the comparison of provincial and national data, and a range of alternative indicators, are suggestive of an official growth rate for 2015 that may have been overstated by a couple of percentage points.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uffed-up-by-fake-economic-data-analysis-shows

can u find better anti-china news to propagate instead of the usual 'china's GDP woes', 'chinese debt-bubble', 'chinese economy-crash' 'chinese doomsday is coming' type of news?

Anything else other then the boring types above will make a good and interesting read to pass my time during lunchbreak and im alrdy sleepy enough after lunch.

Yawn~

 

[lcloo]

"China’s growth rate in 2015 was probably overstated by “a couple of percentage points,” according to new data analysis by Bloomberg Economics.".........

The best they can say is "PROBABLY" this "Probably" that..... The fact is represented by Chinese tourist travelling to overseas destinations as below chart. Chinese are getting more wealthier, and spending more all over the world. More than 100 million Chinese travels overseas each year.

Fact is Chinese people are getting richer as each year goes by.

 

[52051]

Indians are on the wrong side of history- when everyone goes East, they go West. LOL!!!

Exactly, like apply the Nazi SS membership in 1945 at Berlin when Soviet soldiers were at gate.

 

[antonius123]

Of course china‘s economic power will never come close to USA because china has already surpassed

China's electric power is already 1.5 times larger than USA and still growing,meanwhile electric power in USA has been slightly shrinking for years

China also consumed 1.34 times more energy than USA

Car sales in china is also 1.6 times more than USA

China‘s retail sales growth was 10.2pc last year,almost the same with USA and will become the world largest retail market this year without doubt ，keep in mind that china also producted way more stuff than USA

China is also the world largest trading nation and investing nation

Yet china still has a much smaller GDP than USA,just to think how fake our GDP is and how real their GDP is

Not yet.

Manufacturing wise china has surpassed us, but service wise china still away behind us, thats why total GDP US is still higher than China.