I have seen an article at Chinadaily today. 7 economists are answering the same 4 questions about China. Let's discuss them on this forum. That could be a nice discussion.
Q1 : Given the third-quarter figures, do you think Chinese economy can grow by 7.5 percent this year? If yes, why? If not, is it a big problem?
Q2 : Should China lower it's GDP target next year? What is the appropriate rate?
Q3 : There is no doubt that China is slowing. Will the slowdown do more good than harm to the country in the long run? Why?
Q4 : What are the benefits and drawbacks of China's slowdown? How can China reduce or avoid damage?
My answers.
Q1 : The problem is not about the growth rate within reach per se. Of course it's within reach. The actual matter is does the government really wants it? In my opinion China can easily get back to it's 8+% growth rate but this will be the thing that damages the economy. Chinese economy is facing environmental pressure. High quality growth is the keyword of Xi-Li administration. That's why while being in reach China might or might not push for 7.5%. Since the target was "about 7.5%", my prediction about overall 2014 growth is 7.4%.
Q2 : Appropriate rate can be determine by employment. 10 million new jobs a year is a good target. Above 7% growth should create that many new jobs.
Q3 : R&D driven, Greener, better wealth distributed 7% growth is much more welcome than inefficient 8% growth. Numbers doesn't matter as long as you create a good civilization. Previous growth is not sustainable for China, new growth trends are. That's why it's actually doing more good.
Q4 : As long as Chinese government can create welfare for it's people, I guess people don't make 7% or 8% growth. Employment and welfare that's what people want, and that's how you can avoid the damage.
Q1 : Given the third-quarter figures, do you think Chinese economy can grow by 7.5 percent this year? If yes, why? If not, is it a big problem?
Q2 : Should China lower it's GDP target next year? What is the appropriate rate?
Q3 : There is no doubt that China is slowing. Will the slowdown do more good than harm to the country in the long run? Why?
Q4 : What are the benefits and drawbacks of China's slowdown? How can China reduce or avoid damage?
My answers.
Q1 : The problem is not about the growth rate within reach per se. Of course it's within reach. The actual matter is does the government really wants it? In my opinion China can easily get back to it's 8+% growth rate but this will be the thing that damages the economy. Chinese economy is facing environmental pressure. High quality growth is the keyword of Xi-Li administration. That's why while being in reach China might or might not push for 7.5%. Since the target was "about 7.5%", my prediction about overall 2014 growth is 7.4%.
Q2 : Appropriate rate can be determine by employment. 10 million new jobs a year is a good target. Above 7% growth should create that many new jobs.
Q3 : R&D driven, Greener, better wealth distributed 7% growth is much more welcome than inefficient 8% growth. Numbers doesn't matter as long as you create a good civilization. Previous growth is not sustainable for China, new growth trends are. That's why it's actually doing more good.
Q4 : As long as Chinese government can create welfare for it's people, I guess people don't make 7% or 8% growth. Employment and welfare that's what people want, and that's how you can avoid the damage.
