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China-US Geopolitics: News & Discussions

I think China gave him a lot of concessions for his family behind the scenes and gave him a lot of respect by making him look good.

This is the appetizer:

Donald Trump’s 38 China Trademarks Are Good News for Foreign Businesses
Scott Cendrowski
Mar 10, 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/03/10/trademarks-china-donald-trump/

There are only 4 to 8 years on a president's term or less. His family businesses are meant for a much longer term

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Report: Paul Manafort Now Advising Chinese Billionaire On Trump Infrastructure Contracts
Pacific Construction Group wants in on the president’s $1 trillion plan, the Financial Times reports.
By Mary Papenfuss

http _com.ft.imagepublish.prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com_1a6392b6-22b0-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025.jpg

Paul Manafort was described as 'Trump's special envoy' by Yan Jiehe © Bloomberg


Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is now advising a Chinese billionaire on how to get a piece of the business if the president successfully launches a $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure plan, the Financial Times reports.

The man booted out of his U.S. campaign slot over close ties to Russian interests reportedly met last week with Yan Jiehe, the founder of China’s Pacific Construction Group. Yan told the Financial Times in advance that the two men planned to discuss how the Chinese billionaire could profit from Trump’s prospective program to use federal funds to launch infrastructure projects.

A spokesman for Manafort initially denied to the newspaper that the meeting had anything to do with business, the Times reported. He then modified his statement, saying the meeting was “impromptu” and was added to Manafort’s China travel schedule because the Chinese “are interested in U.S. infrastructure,” spokesman Jason Maloni told the newspaper.

“However, his work does not involve any current or future infrastructure projects or contracts in the United States. As he has said before, he is not engaged in government affairs or lobbying for corporations, governments or individuals.”

A source linked to Yan told the Financial Times that Manafort would return in a month for further talks.

Manafort resigned from the presidential campaign in August after it emerged that he had led lobbying efforts in the U.S. from 2010 to 2014 on behalf of the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine, a front group for former pro-Russia Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

The Associated Press later discovered that Manafort had also been paid $10 million between 2006 and 2009 by billionaire Oleg Deripaska, an associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, to promote Putin and the Russian government. Manafort wrote a memo about his plan in 2005 to obtain the contract, boasting about influencing politics and the media on Russia’s behalf in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. Trump often spoke extremely positively about Putin during the campaign in a series of puzzling pronouncements.

In the wake of the Deripaska revelations in March, White House spokesman Sean Spicer attempted to downplay the importance of Manafort’s role as presidential campaign chairman, saying he had a “limited role” for “just under five months” in the campaign — a period that included the Republican National Convention, at which Trump’s GOP nomination was formalized.

Spicer denied that Trump knew anything about the $10 million contract. Manafort’s ties to Deripaska were first in the news in 2008.

Manafort is in the process of registering as a foreign agent operating in the U.S.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...mp-infrastructure_us_58f5498be4b0b9e9848de262








 
WASHINGTON — The Chinese government systematically dismantledC.I.A. spying operations in the country starting in 2010, killing or imprisoning more than a dozen sources over two years and crippling intelligence gathering there for years afterward.

Current and former American officials described the intelligence breach as one of the worst in decades. It set off a scramble in Washington’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies to contain the fallout, but investigators were bitterly divided over the cause. Some were convinced that a mole within the C.I.A. had betrayed the United States. Others believed that the Chinese had hacked the covert system the C.I.A. used to communicate with its foreign sources. Years later, that debate remains unresolved.

But there was no disagreement about the damage. From the final weeks of 2010 through the end of 2012, according to former American officials, the Chinese killed at least a dozen of the C.I.A.’s sources. According to three of the officials, one was shot in front of his colleagues in the courtyard of a government building — a message to others who might have been working for the C.I.A.

Still others were put in jail. All told, the Chinese killed or imprisoned 18 to 20 of the C.I.A.’s sources in China, according to two former senior American officials, effectively unraveling a network that had taken years to build.

Assessing the fallout from an exposed spy operation can be difficult, but the episode was considered particularly damaging. The number of American assets lost in China, officials said, rivaled those lost in the Soviet Union and Russia during the betrayals of both Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen, formerly of the C.I.A. and the F.B.I., who divulged intelligence operations to Moscow for years.

The previously unreported episode shows how successful the Chinese were in disrupting American spying efforts and stealing secrets years before awell-publicized breach in 2015 gave Beijing access to thousands of government personnel records, including intelligence contractors. The C.I.A. considers spying in China one of its top priorities, but the country’s extensive security apparatus makes it exceptionally hard for Western spy services to develop sources there.

At a time when the C.I.A. is trying to figure out how some of its most sensitive documents were leaked onto the internet two months ago by WikiLeaks, and the F.B.I. investigates possible ties between President Trump’s campaign and Russia, the unsettled nature of the China investigation demonstrates the difficulty of conducting counterespionage investigations into sophisticated spy services like those in Russia and China.

The C.I.A. and the F.B.I. both declined to comment.

Details about the investigation have been tightly held. Ten current and former American officials described the investigation on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be identified discussing the information.

The first signs of trouble emerged in 2010. At the time, the quality of the C.I.A.’s information about the inner workings of the Chinese government was the best it had been for years, the result of recruiting sources deep inside the bureaucracy in Beijing, four former officials said. Some were Chinese nationals who the C.I.A. believed had become disillusioned with the Chinese government’s corruption.

But by the end of the year, the flow of information began to dry up. By early 2011, senior agency officers realized they had a problem: Assets in China, one of their most precious resources, were disappearing.

The F.B.I. and the C.I.A. opened a joint investigation run by top counterintelligence officials at both agencies. Working out of a secret office in Northern Virginia, they began analyzing every operation being run in Beijing. One former senior American official said the investigation had been code-named Honey Badger.

As more and more sources vanished, the operation took on increased urgency. Nearly every employee at the American Embassy was scrutinized, no matter how high ranking. Some investigators believed the Chinese had cracked the encrypted method that the C.I.A. used to communicate with its assets. Others suspected a traitor in the C.I.A., a theory that agency officials were at first reluctant to embrace — and that some in both agencies still do not believe.

Their debates were punctuated with macabre phone calls — “We lost another one” — and urgent questions from the Obama administration wondering why intelligence about the Chinese had slowed.

The mole hunt eventually zeroed in on a former agency operative who had worked in the C.I.A.’s division overseeing China, believing he was most likely responsible for the crippling disclosures. But efforts to gather enough evidence to arrest him failed, and he is now living in another Asian country, current and former officials said.

There was good reason to suspect an insider, some former officials say. Around that time, Chinese spies compromised National Security Agency surveillance in Taiwan — an island Beijing claims is part of China — by infiltrating Taiwanese intelligence, an American partner, according to two former officials. And the C.I.A. had discovered Chinese operatives in theagency’s hiring pipeline, according to officials and court documents.

But the C.I.A.’s top spy hunter, Mark Kelton, resisted the mole theory, at least initially, former officials say. Mr. Kelton had been close friends withBrian J. Kelley, a C.I.A. officer who in the 1990s was wrongly suspected by the F.B.I. of being a Russian spy. The real traitor, it turned out, was Mr. Hanssen. Mr. Kelton often mentioned Mr. Kelley’s mistreatment in meetings during the China episode, former colleagues say, and said he would not accuse someone without ironclad evidence.

Those who rejected the mole theory attributed the losses to sloppy American tradecraft at a time when the Chinese were becoming better at monitoring American espionage activities in the country. Some F.B.I. agents became convinced that C.I.A. handlers in Beijing too often traveled the same routes to the same meeting points, which would have helped China’s vast surveillance network identify the spies in its midst.

Some officers met their sources at a restaurant where Chinese agents had planted listening devices, former officials said, and even the waiters worked for Chinese intelligence.

This carelessness, coupled with the possibility that the Chinese had hacked the covert communications channel, would explain many, if not all, of the disappearances and deaths, some former officials said. Some in the agency, particularly those who had helped build the spy network, resisted this theory and believed they had been caught in the middle of a turf war within the C.I.A.

Still, the Chinese picked off more and more of the agency’s spies, continuing through 2011 and into 2012. As investigators narrowed the list of suspects with access to the information, they started focusing on a Chinese-American who had left the C.I.A. shortly before the intelligence losses began. Some investigators believed he had become disgruntled and had begun spying for China. One official said the man had access to the identities of C.I.A. informants and fit all the indicators on a matrix used to identify espionage threats.

After leaving the C.I.A., the man decided to remain in Asia with his family and pursue a business opportunity, which some officials suspect that Chinese intelligence agents had arranged.

Officials said the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. lured the man back to the United States around 2012 with a ruse about a possible contract with the agency, an arrangement common among former officers. Agents questioned the man, asking why he had decided to stay in Asia, concerned that he possessed a number of secrets that would be valuable to the Chinese. It’s not clear whether agents confronted the man about whether he had spied for China.

The man defended his reasons for living in Asia and did not admit any wrongdoing, an official said. He then returned to Asia.

By 2013, the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. concluded that China’s success in identifying C.I.A. agents had been blunted — it is not clear how — but the damage had been done.

The C.I.A. has tried to rebuild its network of spies in China, officials said, an expensive and time-consuming effort led at one time by the former chief of the East Asia Division. A former intelligence official said the former chief was particularly bitter because he had worked with the suspected mole and recruited some of the spies in China who were ultimately executed.

China has been particularly aggressive in its espionage in recent years, beyond the breach of the Office of Personnel Management records in 2015, American officials said. Last year, an F.B.I. employee pleaded guilty to acting as a Chinese agent for years, passing sensitive technology information to Beijing in exchange for cash, lavish hotel rooms during foreign travel and prostitutes.

In March, prosecutors announced the arrest of a longtime State Department employee, Candace Marie Claiborne, accused of lying to investigators about her contacts with Chinese officials. According to the criminal complaint against Ms. Claiborne, who pleaded not guilty, Chinese agents wired cash into her bank account and showered her with gifts that included an iPhone, a laptop and tuition at a Chinese fashion school. In addition, according to the complaint, she received a fully furnished apartment and a stipend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html?_r=0

Well, the spy wars carry on endlessly. Considering this was 5 years ago, I'm sure the CIA has been cultivating a new network of spies.
 
Creating a well trained assets against China is extremely hard. China has extremely sophisticated surveillance system. And they are vigilant against any kinda espionage. Things are getting extremely hard for US intelligence services as it seems. I wonder how much money would US have had spent so far just to catch that mole in there agency?
 
Creating a well trained assets against China is extremely hard. China has extremely sophisticated surveillance system. And they are vigilant against any kinda espionage. Things are getting extremely hard for US intelligence services as it seems. I wonder how much money would US have had spent so far just to catch that mole in there agency?

The traitors are going to reveal themselves eventually, they can't hide it forever that they are serving the interests of a foreign country over the interests of China.

They are going to have to get paid by their financiers somehow, they are going to have to contact their financiers somehow. They are going to get caught, it's only a matter of time.

After that, being killed would be a mercy.
 
WASHINGTON — The Chinese government systematically dismantledC.I.A. spying operations in the country starting in 2010, killing or imprisoning more than a dozen sources over two years and crippling intelligence gathering there for years afterward.

Current and former American officials described the intelligence breach as one of the worst in decades. It set off a scramble in Washington’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies to contain the fallout, but investigators were bitterly divided over the cause. Some were convinced that a mole within the C.I.A. had betrayed the United States. Others believed that the Chinese had hacked the covert system the C.I.A. used to communicate with its foreign sources. Years later, that debate remains unresolved.

But there was no disagreement about the damage. From the final weeks of 2010 through the end of 2012, according to former American officials, the Chinese killed at least a dozen of the C.I.A.’s sources. According to three of the officials, one was shot in front of his colleagues in the courtyard of a government building — a message to others who might have been working for the C.I.A.

Still others were put in jail. All told, the Chinese killed or imprisoned 18 to 20 of the C.I.A.’s sources in China, according to two former senior American officials, effectively unraveling a network that had taken years to build.

Assessing the fallout from an exposed spy operation can be difficult, but the episode was considered particularly damaging. The number of American assets lost in China, officials said, rivaled those lost in the Soviet Union and Russia during the betrayals of both Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen, formerly of the C.I.A. and the F.B.I., who divulged intelligence operations to Moscow for years.

The previously unreported episode shows how successful the Chinese were in disrupting American spying efforts and stealing secrets years before awell-publicized breach in 2015 gave Beijing access to thousands of government personnel records, including intelligence contractors. The C.I.A. considers spying in China one of its top priorities, but the country’s extensive security apparatus makes it exceptionally hard for Western spy services to develop sources there.

At a time when the C.I.A. is trying to figure out how some of its most sensitive documents were leaked onto the internet two months ago by WikiLeaks, and the F.B.I. investigates possible ties between President Trump’s campaign and Russia, the unsettled nature of the China investigation demonstrates the difficulty of conducting counterespionage investigations into sophisticated spy services like those in Russia and China.

The C.I.A. and the F.B.I. both declined to comment.

Details about the investigation have been tightly held. Ten current and former American officials described the investigation on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be identified discussing the information.

The first signs of trouble emerged in 2010. At the time, the quality of the C.I.A.’s information about the inner workings of the Chinese government was the best it had been for years, the result of recruiting sources deep inside the bureaucracy in Beijing, four former officials said. Some were Chinese nationals who the C.I.A. believed had become disillusioned with the Chinese government’s corruption.

But by the end of the year, the flow of information began to dry up. By early 2011, senior agency officers realized they had a problem: Assets in China, one of their most precious resources, were disappearing.

The F.B.I. and the C.I.A. opened a joint investigation run by top counterintelligence officials at both agencies. Working out of a secret office in Northern Virginia, they began analyzing every operation being run in Beijing. One former senior American official said the investigation had been code-named Honey Badger.

As more and more sources vanished, the operation took on increased urgency. Nearly every employee at the American Embassy was scrutinized, no matter how high ranking. Some investigators believed the Chinese had cracked the encrypted method that the C.I.A. used to communicate with its assets. Others suspected a traitor in the C.I.A., a theory that agency officials were at first reluctant to embrace — and that some in both agencies still do not believe.

Their debates were punctuated with macabre phone calls — “We lost another one” — and urgent questions from the Obama administration wondering why intelligence about the Chinese had slowed.

The mole hunt eventually zeroed in on a former agency operative who had worked in the C.I.A.’s division overseeing China, believing he was most likely responsible for the crippling disclosures. But efforts to gather enough evidence to arrest him failed, and he is now living in another Asian country, current and former officials said.

There was good reason to suspect an insider, some former officials say. Around that time, Chinese spies compromised National Security Agency surveillance in Taiwan — an island Beijing claims is part of China — by infiltrating Taiwanese intelligence, an American partner, according to two former officials. And the C.I.A. had discovered Chinese operatives in theagency’s hiring pipeline, according to officials and court documents.

But the C.I.A.’s top spy hunter, Mark Kelton, resisted the mole theory, at least initially, former officials say. Mr. Kelton had been close friends withBrian J. Kelley, a C.I.A. officer who in the 1990s was wrongly suspected by the F.B.I. of being a Russian spy. The real traitor, it turned out, was Mr. Hanssen. Mr. Kelton often mentioned Mr. Kelley’s mistreatment in meetings during the China episode, former colleagues say, and said he would not accuse someone without ironclad evidence.

Those who rejected the mole theory attributed the losses to sloppy American tradecraft at a time when the Chinese were becoming better at monitoring American espionage activities in the country. Some F.B.I. agents became convinced that C.I.A. handlers in Beijing too often traveled the same routes to the same meeting points, which would have helped China’s vast surveillance network identify the spies in its midst.

Some officers met their sources at a restaurant where Chinese agents had planted listening devices, former officials said, and even the waiters worked for Chinese intelligence.

This carelessness, coupled with the possibility that the Chinese had hacked the covert communications channel, would explain many, if not all, of the disappearances and deaths, some former officials said. Some in the agency, particularly those who had helped build the spy network, resisted this theory and believed they had been caught in the middle of a turf war within the C.I.A.

Still, the Chinese picked off more and more of the agency’s spies, continuing through 2011 and into 2012. As investigators narrowed the list of suspects with access to the information, they started focusing on a Chinese-American who had left the C.I.A. shortly before the intelligence losses began. Some investigators believed he had become disgruntled and had begun spying for China. One official said the man had access to the identities of C.I.A. informants and fit all the indicators on a matrix used to identify espionage threats.

After leaving the C.I.A., the man decided to remain in Asia with his family and pursue a business opportunity, which some officials suspect that Chinese intelligence agents had arranged.

Officials said the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. lured the man back to the United States around 2012 with a ruse about a possible contract with the agency, an arrangement common among former officers. Agents questioned the man, asking why he had decided to stay in Asia, concerned that he possessed a number of secrets that would be valuable to the Chinese. It’s not clear whether agents confronted the man about whether he had spied for China.

The man defended his reasons for living in Asia and did not admit any wrongdoing, an official said. He then returned to Asia.

By 2013, the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. concluded that China’s success in identifying C.I.A. agents had been blunted — it is not clear how — but the damage had been done.

The C.I.A. has tried to rebuild its network of spies in China, officials said, an expensive and time-consuming effort led at one time by the former chief of the East Asia Division. A former intelligence official said the former chief was particularly bitter because he had worked with the suspected mole and recruited some of the spies in China who were ultimately executed.

China has been particularly aggressive in its espionage in recent years, beyond the breach of the Office of Personnel Management records in 2015, American officials said. Last year, an F.B.I. employee pleaded guilty to acting as a Chinese agent for years, passing sensitive technology information to Beijing in exchange for cash, lavish hotel rooms during foreign travel and prostitutes.

In March, prosecutors announced the arrest of a longtime State Department employee, Candace Marie Claiborne, accused of lying to investigators about her contacts with Chinese officials. According to the criminal complaint against Ms. Claiborne, who pleaded not guilty, Chinese agents wired cash into her bank account and showered her with gifts that included an iPhone, a laptop and tuition at a Chinese fashion school. In addition, according to the complaint, she received a fully furnished apartment and a stipend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html?_r=0

Well, the spy wars carry on endlessly. Considering this was 5 years ago, I'm sure the CIA has been cultivating a new network of spies.

Next time send James Bond instead C.I.A
:china:
 
CIA got sloppy, after a decade of no comparable counterpart

I agree with you on this one, after the collapse of Soviet Union Americans thought that finally they can rest for another few decades because they have no other rivals left. And war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Yemen was one of the many reasons too.
 
Well, the spy wars carry on endlessly. Considering this was 5 years ago, I'm sure the CIA has been cultivating a new network of spies.

Probably. Wars end, but not those fought in the shadows.

Creating a well trained assets against China is extremely hard. China has extremely sophisticated surveillance system. And they are vigilant against any kinda espionage. Things are getting extremely hard for US intelligence services as it seems. I wonder how much money would US have had spent so far just to catch that mole in there agency?

Hard, but not impossible regardless of China's "extremely sophisticated surveillance system" you mention, whatever that is. Regardless, successful agents don't reveal themselves. This is one of the ironies of intelligence: No one knows your successes, but they definitely know your failures.

CIA got sloppy, after a decade of no comparable counterpart then another against AK wielding rats hiding in caves.

US overreliance on ELINT and SIGNIT intelligence -- think NSA -- has severely degraded its HUMINT capabilities, specifically the CIA. It's not hiring the right people to do the job. You can't take some white dude from Nebraska and just stick him Afghanistan and Iraq and expect him to be effective. And simply knowing the language is not enough.
 
New York Times have certainly timed the publication for maximum eyeballs, i.e., Trump's first foreign trip.
 
Probably. Wars end, but not those fought in the shadows.



Hard, but not impossible regardless of China's "extremely sophisticated surveillance system" you mention, whatever that is. Regardless, successful agents don't reveal themselves. This is one of the ironies of intelligence: No one knows your successes, but they definitely know your failures.



US overreliance on ELINT and SIGNIT intelligence -- think NSA -- has severely degraded its HUMINT capabilities, specifically the CIA. It's not hiring the right people to do the job. You can't take some white dude from Nebraska and just stick him Afghanistan and Iraq and expect him to be effective. And simply knowing the language is not enough.

I think "severely degraded" HUMINT capabilities is an inaccurate picture. Sloppy is a better word to describe it.
The CIA has certainly had its successes over the last 15 years. The CIA had a mole inside the Russian SVR that was overseeing its illegals program for 10 years. An just recently it was reported that the CIA had a couple moles inside FSB cyber operations. An they developed up to 20 informants in the Chinese government up to 2010 until the breach. An of course that doesn't count the successes they've had that are still secret, considering the CIA has operations running around the world.
 
I think "severely degraded" HUMINT capabilities is an inaccurate picture. Sloppy is a better word to describe it.
The CIA has certainly had its successes over the last 15 years. The CIA had a mole inside the Russian SVR that was overseeing its illegals program for 10 years. An just recently it was reported that the CIA had a couple moles inside FSB cyber operations. An they developed up to 20 informants in the Chinese government up to 2010 until the breach. An of course that doesn't count the successes they've had that are still secret, considering the CIA has operations running around the world.

This is just how the spy game played

This actually happened quite a lot, it's not about how sloppy CIA got, but rather, how much CIA do when these source are exposed. At this point, nothing.

Source cannot generate intel forever, the first time a source talk, the government they are spying on will know something go astray, and started to notice things. Every time a mole talk, he or she put themselves more on the spot light. The more the same mole talks, the more they reveal themselves, at a point, if they weren't extracted or relocated, they will be caught.

Depending on the status of the mole, the higher the mole ranked, the more exclusive the information they can produce, but then it will also shortened the mole "Shelf Life" because the more exclusive an intel they produce, the easier it is to trace it back to the mole, because not too many people know that intel to begin with, some high profile mole will only ever produced 1 single piece of intel, then they are expired.

Now, the focus is, what would US do to the expired mole? In some case, if they are useful (like scientist or something like that) they will be passed to priority extraction and will be extracted to US or friendly country, for others, there are no incentive for US to bring them out of the country they are spying, and mostly, during the Cold War, ended up dead in East Germany and Soviet Union.

Those people are leave in place is because if they are not useful to the US, then they will become baits for the CIA and when country like China, Russia or anywhere these people are spying from is looking for them, they won't be looking for the one that still active. Also, the one that was killed or imprisoned are usually produce low grade intel, otherwise the Chinese would have turn them as double agent and feeding bad info back to the US.
 
Hard, but not impossible regardless of China's "extremely sophisticated surveillance system" you mention, whatever that is.

And that's what I was trying to explain it to you, that you don't know the sophistication of their surveillance system that how do they monitor there highly classified sensitive information.

Regardless, successful agents don't reveal themselves.

No I never said that successful agents do reveal themselves because they are highly stupid, but when a system is so sophisticated that only few in your top rank officials knows about it, than the chances of even smartest agents being caught is without a doubt inevitable.

This is one of the ironies of intelligence: No one knows your successes, but they definitely know your failures.

Nop, you are wrong, only ordinary Citizens don't know about ones success, the entire intelligence community does, the roar of the breach echoed everywhere, no wonder you make such a statements because it seems perhaps you have no idea whatsoever regarding how intelligence community work.
 

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