China unlikely to succeed in ousting the US from Asia

[Beast]

NO!

U.S. rejects Manila's bid for custody of U.S. Marine accused of murder

If every ASEAN countries do their part to reject US military. It will be a yes.

 

[tranquilium]

1. The article assumes China would be using a 15th century concept and then says that's the reason it will fail. Basically, it is trying to prove an assumption with an assumption. You can see the problem with that train of logic.

2. The article assumes the relationship between US and ASEAN nation is static while the reality is the political and economic relationships of ASEAN nations with with the rest of the world and each other has been constantly shifting and there is no reason it won't change in the future.

ASEAN nations are sovereign nations and it is only natural that they will pick partners that suits their interest the most. The "pushing out US from East Asia/Southeast Asia" part means to develop Chinese influences, including economic and military might to the point that it is more beneficial for the ASEAN nations to align with China instead of US.

 

[kankan326]

China's government has told USA that the Pacific Ocean is big enough that we can co-exist here.

 

[Zero_wing]

Yes by your terms domination and we negotiate what is yours is your term of co
existance

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

China may desire such an outcome, but as long as the US has defense treaties with Japan and the Philippines (and Taiwan), a strong relationship with Singapore, and growing ties to the ASEAN members, it seems a bit out of place to contemplate the ejection of the US from Asia. Let alone the fact that we're on the verge of signing the TPP, and the inconvenient detail that because the US has Asian land possessions (Guam, Saipan, etc.), we are an Asian power in our own right.

The irony is that we were being asked to stand down our presence in the region by these very neighbours surrounding China, only to have them now requesting a more strong U.S presence because of China's misadventures in the SCS.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

This is a troll vote, please don't cast your vote

 

[Genesis]

I didn't respond to your other thread, for other reasons, but I'll respond here.

Is this a reference to the US military only @Black Flag ? If so, then the answer is most probably, but not without being subject to change, no. So long as regional nations want our presence as a hedge against China and North Korea or to combat regional strife and terrorism, the US will be present. Currently we are reproaching Vietnam and increasing our military-to-military ties, we are beefing up our presence in Japan, re-positioning forces in Guam, being asked to re-enter the Philippines, selling assets to Taiwan... nations want the US and even if China doesn't that won't matter so long as North Korea and China try to threaten the stability of the region.

I'm glad you brought up North Korea, to me us taking the North is far more likely than any other scenario. We have cause, we are cooling our relationship and let's face it, it's existence has served its purpose and is a stain on East Asia in general.

You are looking at this in a very near term, remember China still isn't equal to the US' GDP despite being 4 times the population. A often missed fact about the current situation, and the apparent helplessness of China against the US.

That will change within the next 10 years.

Also, while US is pivoting to Asia, China is pivoting to South Asia and Africa, as well as making inroads into South America and Europe, you are not boxing us in.

We go at our pace, and won't follow yours, since you have the obvious advantage in East and ASEAN right now, we will simply avoid you here and move our influence in every other sphere.

The foolish thing would be to duel you in East Asia when we cannot win yet, so we expand our influence outward and then work our way back.

In purely military terms, the second carrier will finish within a few years, 10,000+ ton DDG will also launch in large numbers, joint heavy helicopter development with Russia, and our own medium lift helicopter already in test flight, the difference will soon be a great US variant with a very good Chinese variant, not a great US variant with no Chinese counter part, and that will reduce the US advantage to one of exiting, but not deciding.

But the US will never truly be gone. Japan, China, South Korea(?), and all others in the region are good businessmen. To truly be rid of the US in East Asia they would have to remove the US business links in the region and no one, not even China, will say goodbye to US business.

This is true, the US will never be gone, but not for your reasons, China exist though in small amounts in North America, Mexican deal may have gone south, but it was still there, and Canadian business is a big part.

Our South American ventures have potential to eclipse America in the next 10-20 years.

Even at this point China can get its foot into the door, so I doubt the US will ever be ejected completely, but at some point the dominate decision maker will be China and that's the point, not the disappearing act of the US, we are not Houdini and Americans are not skinny sexy girls.

China can limit our military hedge against it by making good ties with regional nations, or building up its own forces, but North Korea practically ensures the US will have a military presence in the region. Like it or not, we are deeply entrenched in East Asia and we aren't going anywhere, no matter how baffling our pivot might be.

Let's get back to the point at the beginning, with increasing involvement in South Asia and Africa, we will be increasingly seen as a force for change, as our interest there can co-exist with theirs, simply because we are not there. It helps there's a India that wants the same as us in South Asia and Africa being what it is.

Whether this changes the mind of ASEAN and East Asia isn't as relevant as it will change the ability of others to diminish and tarnish our role in the world.

US can continue to station in Asia, but at some point 100,000 men and 60% of your fleet may not seem enough for even a pyrrhic victory.

With the increasing multi polar nature of the world each continent will rise a new power, Russia in Europe, Middle East being what it is, Africa being what it is, and Brazil in South America, America will soon find itself over extended by being in so many places at once.

What was once an advantage due to the weakness of others will soon be a weakness due to the power of the new elites.

Like the Romans, it's empire was a vast one, it's military everywhere gave it an overwhelming advantage, but one day, the Germans, Muslims, and others became more powerful than they had ever been and the vast network of bases became it's overwhelming weakness, it's forces spread far too thin, that not only can it not defend against one, but it made Rome not being able to defend all.

Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and China Seas, Ebola, and more are perfectly manageable if in isolation, but they are not.

Business that were US dominated will have a Chinese presence and thus cutting revenue or at least make you work harder invest more and cutting profits that were easy to make just 10 years ago.

Thus less money for military, we are already seeing this in a small way.

Same thing happened many times to Ancient China.

The silver-lining in all of this talk about removing the US from East Asia is that the US and China are actually increasing their cooperation and decreasing their competition, though problems will remain, but they remain in any friendship. Even between the US and its closest friends Japan and the UK do we see differences, but the US and China are making an effort to lead the world into prosperity and not conflict.

Lastly, ejecting the US, what does it mean? If anyone thinks it means Shamzam and no US, then they need to stop reading comics and proceed directly to @Nihonjin1051 for some counselling.

China and US won't be in a complete zero sum game, even a US Soviet world saw cooperation in many fields, more will happen in a far less hard line US and China. We won't be friends, but that doesn't mean we can't be Shaq and Kobe and win 3 rings together.

 

[hans]

Who? Probably only Philippine government is asking for US military presence there.
Also Philippine people may not agree that..
China is becoming bigger and bigger.
US need to think whether US need to put all their military against China, or retreat away from too close to China..

The irony is that we were being asked to stand down our presence in the region by these very neighbours surrounding China, only to have them now requesting a more strong U.S presence because of China's misadventures in the SCS.

 

[xunzi]

Wider integration will impact the US's influence in Asia. This is what we want, not to oust the US physically out but to make them irrelevant and has less influence in regional politics.

 

[Steve781]

Is there a single country in ASEAN like US?

Yes, most of them.

 

[SipahSalar]

Wider integration will impact the US's influence in Asia. This is what we want, not to oust the US physically out but to make them irrelevant and has less influence in regional politics.

And it will work. As consumer market of China grows and becomes the largest in the world, The regional asian nations would prefer trading with nearby China then distant USA and Europe.

 

[Aepsilons]

I didn't respond to your other thread, for other reasons, but I'll respond here.



I'm glad you brought up North Korea, to me us taking the North is far more likely than any other scenario. We have cause, we are cooling our relationship and let's face it, it's existence has served its purpose and is a stain on East Asia in general.

You are looking at this in a very near term, remember China still isn't equal to the US' GDP despite being 4 times the population. A often missed fact about the current situation, and the apparent helplessness of China against the US.

That will change within the next 10 years.

Also, while US is pivoting to Asia, China is pivoting to South Asia and Africa, as well as making inroads into South America and Europe, you are not boxing us in.

We go at our pace, and won't follow yours, since you have the obvious advantage in East and ASEAN right now, we will simply avoid you here and move our influence in every other sphere.

The foolish thing would be to duel you in East Asia when we cannot win yet, so we expand our influence outward and then work our way back.

In purely military terms, the second carrier will finish within a few years, 10,000+ ton DDG will also launch in large numbers, joint heavy helicopter development with Russia, and our own medium lift helicopter already in test flight, the difference will soon be a great US variant with a very good Chinese variant, not a great US variant with no Chinese counter part, and that will reduce the US advantage to one of exiting, but not deciding.




This is true, the US will never be gone, but not for your reasons, China exist though in small amounts in North America, Mexican deal may have gone south, but it was still there, and Canadian business is a big part.

Our South American ventures have potential to eclipse America in the next 10-20 years.

Even at this point China can get its foot into the door, so I doubt the US will ever be ejected completely, but at some point the dominate decision maker will be China and that's the point, not the disappearing act of the US, we are not Houdini and Americans are not skinny sexy girls.



Let's get back to the point at the beginning, with increasing involvement in South Asia and Africa, we will be increasingly seen as a force for change, as our interest there can co-exist with theirs, simply because we are not there. It helps there's a India that wants the same as us in South Asia and Africa being what it is.

Whether this changes the mind of ASEAN and East Asia isn't as relevant as it will change the ability of others to diminish and tarnish our role in the world.

US can continue to station in Asia, but at some point 100,000 men and 60% of your fleet may not seem enough for even a pyrrhic victory.

With the increasing multi polar nature of the world each continent will rise a new power, Russia in Europe, Middle East being what it is, Africa being what it is, and Brazil in South America, America will soon find itself over extended by being in so many places at once.

What was once an advantage due to the weakness of others will soon be a weakness due to the power of the new elites.

Like the Romans, it's empire was a vast one, it's military everywhere gave it an overwhelming advantage, but one day, the Germans, Muslims, and others became more powerful than they had ever been and the vast network of bases became it's overwhelming weakness, it's forces spread far too thin, that not only can it not defend against one, but it made Rome not being able to defend all.

Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and China Seas, Ebola, and more are perfectly manageable if in isolation, but they are not.

Business that were US dominated will have a Chinese presence and thus cutting revenue or at least make you work harder invest more and cutting profits that were easy to make just 10 years ago.

Thus less money for military, we are already seeing this in a small way.

Same thing happened many times to Ancient China.



Lastly, ejecting the US, what does it mean? If anyone thinks it means Shamzam and no US, then they need to stop reading comics and proceed directly to @Nihonjin1051 for some counselling.

China and US won't be in a complete zero sum game, even a US Soviet world saw cooperation in many fields, more will happen in a far less hard line US and China. We won't be friends, but that doesn't mean we can't be Shaq and Kobe and win 3 rings together.

Hi @Genesis

I think I've mentioned this before in a past thread I started regarding the inevitable integration of East Asian economies, warming of intergovernmental cooperation in various fields ; political, economic, socio-cultural, and military. The way I see it, there are various opportunities for China, Japan, and the United States to cooperate effectively and ensure the stability, and dynamism of East Asia and the Pacific.

I like to see things through a utilitarian approach and not through the myopic lens of a zero sum approach . Reality shows that These three powers are interested in cooperation than just pure competition (tho I believe that some competition is good for any society)!

As for the United States. She is a Pacific Power and will continue to be one indefinitely . By that fact, she will continue to exert her clout in Asia-Pacific.

I'd love to expand more on this when I have more free time.


Regards,
@Nihonjin1051

 

[Beast]

Yes, most of them.

Please come out with a better lies.

 

[远古盘古]

This is not clear

I know American will continue in the Asian mix nice to myAsian big joke by Japanese Dog

 

[William Hung]

OK firstly, I just wanna make it clear that the poll question about "ousting the US completely... " is my own phrasing and is not representative of the article. This thread refers back to the debate/discussion in the "China Unsatisfied Power" thread where I recalled asking if the argument is about whether the US would get kicked out of Asia or not, and the reply was yes, the US will get kicked out. That's why I've assumed here that ousting = completely ejecting the US. However, the article by Le Miere does not explicitly state anything about completely ejecting the US.


Anyway, here's my own brief summary and paraphrasing of the whole article:


- Recent activities at events like the recent APEC reflects the growing central role of China in the Asia region.

- China is trying to create a new sino-centric regional order to replace the existing US-led regional order.

- This new order has 3 fronts: economic, military and political.

- 1. Economic: FTA with SK and AUS. AIB as an alternative to the WB and ADB. FTAAP arrangement to weaken the TPP, overriding the narrow TPP agreement with a broader Asia-wide agreement. Silk Road investments.

- 2. Military: strengthening the SCO. Procedures to admit new members.

- 3. Political: Various loans and grants to regional countries to undermine US diplomatic overtures and to amend damaged ties.

- All of these should not be regarded as isolated policies. Rather, they all encompass a carefully thought-out strategy with the intention to counter the US "pivot" (which also possess the 3 mentioned fronts) and oust the existing US-led regional order.