China unlikely to succeed in ousting the US from Asia

[William Hung]

@Genesis @LeveragedBuyout

We were debating before about the rise of China in The Unsatisfied Power thread. Basically Genesis and I agreed to disagree, I think.

I've just came across this article and thought it might be of interest to those who had participated in that debate. The author has managed to express what I was trying to argue for, in a much more concise and elegant manner.

China bids for prime regional economic position

By Christian Le Miere
Jane's Intelligence Review, (Nov 27, 2014)

Introduction

The 10-11 November Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum, held in Beijing, was a showcase for
China's growing regional influence.

APEC was the latest example of a series of policies Beijing has pursued over the past year to develop an
alternative, 'Sino-centric' regional order to challenge the current system led by the United States.

However, there remain challenges to China being able to usurp Washington's position, particularly because of
the lack of an ideology or vision that remains attractive to regional states.

Conclusion

The strategy to develop a Sino-centric regional order that would exclude the US will nevertheless encounter two
principal problems. First, there is a lack of clarity over what the order would look like, and what the rules and
norms would be. Regional concerns are raised by the notion that Beijing is seeking a return to a historical norm
by developing a system of vassal states, in a neo-imperial system.

During the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1912) dynasties, the Chinese imperial system developed a Sino-
centric regional order that entailed weaker states paying tribute to the Chinese emperor in return for a
guarantee of security. This system was supported by a view that China remained the most important state in the
region, if not the world, and had a divine right to its central position. Other states were not seen as equal to the
Middle Kingdom (zhong guo).

This stands in stark contrast to the post-war system, in which every state - at least theoretically - has complete
sovereignty. Regional states, fearful of Chinese chauvinism demonstrated in recent policies such as in the
South China Sea, may well distrust a Sino-centric order.

Second, various states in the region clearly still favour a sustained and robust US presence. Whether that is one
of the five mutual security partners Washington has in East Asia, such as the Philippines (which regularly notes
the desirability of a US presence at ASEAN meetings), or new potential partners, such as Vietnam (against
which a US arms embargo was relaxed in October), these states are fearful that a powerful China may impinge
upon their political sovereignty.

As a result, although it is inevitable that China will have a growing influence in Asia purely as a result of its
economic growth and greater dominance of regional trade, resistance remains among regional states to ceding
greater political influence to Beijing.

This dichotomy of having China as a primary trade partner and the US as a primary security partner may be
uncomfortable for some regional states. However, unless Beijing is able to offer a world view that is as attractive
as that offered by the US - and that will include pursuing non-assertive policies over maritime disputes and the
freedom of navigation - it is unlikely to be able to oust the position of Washington within the region.

This is a copyrighted article so I've only quoted part of the intro and conclusion (and also changed the title of the thread).

 

[Steve781]

There isn't a single country in East or Southeast Asia that actually likes China aside from maybe Thailand and Cambodia. Why don't they try to make friends, then they could probably succeed in their mission.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

@Genesis @LeveragedBuyout

We were debating before about the rise of China in The Unsatisfied Power thread. Basically Genesis and I agreed to disagree, I think.

I've just came across this article and thought it might be of interest to those who had participated in that debate. The author has managed to express what I was trying to argue for, in a much more concise and elegant manner.



This is a copyrighted article so I've only quoted part of the intro and conclusion (and also changed the title of the thread).

China may desire such an outcome, but as long as the US has defense treaties with Japan and the Philippines (and Taiwan), a strong relationship with Singapore, and growing ties to the ASEAN members, it seems a bit out of place to contemplate the ejection of the US from Asia. Let alone the fact that we're on the verge of signing the TPP, and the inconvenient detail that because the US has Asian land possessions (Guam, Saipan, etc.), we are an Asian power in our own right.

 

[SvenSvensonov]

@Genesis @LeveragedBuyout

We were debating before about the rise of China in The Unsatisfied Power thread. Basically Genesis and I agreed to disagree, I think.

I've just came across this article and thought it might be of interest to those who had participated in that debate. The author has managed to express what I was trying to argue for, in a much more concise and elegant manner.



This is a copyrighted article so I've only quoted part of the intro and conclusion (and also changed the title of the thread).

Is this a reference to the US military only @Black Flag ? If so, then the answer is most probably, but not without being subject to change, no. So long as regional nations want our presence as a hedge against China and North Korea or to combat regional strife and terrorism, the US will be present. Currently we are reproaching Vietnam and increasing our military-to-military ties, we are beefing up our presence in Japan, re-positioning forces in Guam, being asked to re-enter the Philippines, selling assets to Taiwan... nations want the US and even if China doesn't that won't matter so long as North Korea and China try to threaten the stability of the region.

But the US will never truly be gone. Japan, China, South Korea(?), and all others in the region are good businessmen. To truly be rid of the US in East Asia they would have to remove the US business links in the region and no one, not even China, will say goodbye to US business.

China can limit our military hedge against it by making good ties with regional nations, or building up its own forces, but North Korea practically ensures the US will have a military presence in the region. Like it or not, we are deeply entrenched in East Asia and we aren't going anywhere, no matter how baffling our pivot might be.

The silver-lining in all of this talk about removing the US from East Asia is that the US and China are actually increasing their cooperation and decreasing their competition, though problems will remain, but they remain in any friendship. Even between the US and its closest friends Japan and the UK do we see differences, but the US and China are making an effort to lead the world into prosperity and not conflict.

 

[The Huskar]

Until and unless a major catastrophe like situation arises in USA or Godzilla attacks the West Coast,US is here to stay for a long time in Asia.Cold War 2.0 is just getting started,why is everyone so eager to finish it.
As the Chinese proverb goes "May you live in interesting times",I am sure there are some damn interesting times ahead.

 

[William Hung]

Is this a reference to the US military only @Black Flag ?

Not just only in reference to US military presence, but also US economical and political influence in the region. China wants to create a new sino-centric regional order that can oust the present US-led regional order (which includes all 3 dimensions).

I will summarise the article when I have more free time later in the day.

... or you could check your school's online journal database. Most university will provide full access to Jane's Intelligence (where this article was found).

 

[Galad]

China will succeed if not completely ousting USA at very least significantly reducing its influence.Already tandem China-Russia did reversed result of color revolutions in Middle Asia and reduced USA influence there to to nothing.Next step is wider Asian region.China needs to simply follow and accelerate its current course.At this year APEC summit was pretty clear with which country rest of Asian countries prefer to work with.Or look how many country did choose despite the pressure to join China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) .Give it a time and even such USA " allies" as Australia and Philippines will jump the sinking ship called USA.

 

[Steakhouse]

Who fcking care? Waste of time discuss this topic, next throw this thread into the trash can.

 

[Ruisheng]

China will succeed if not completely ousting USA at very least significantly reducing its influence.Already tandem China-Russia did reversed result of color revolutions in Middle Asia and reduced USA influence there to to nothing.Next step is wider Asian region.China needs to simply follow and accelerate its current course.At this year APEC summit was pretty clear with which country rest of Asian countries prefer to work with.Or look how many country did choose despite the pressure to join China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) .Give it a time and even such USA " allies" as Australia and Philippines will jump the sinking ship called USA.

They set this topic not for discussion but for a meaningless battle.

 

[Keel]

They set this topic not for discussion but for a meaningless battle.

The Indian OP is a notorious and reckless China basher on PDF

Pacific big enough for all of us, says China

'Big enough for all of us': Clinton says US can work with China in Pacific - World News

 

[somsak]

Who fcking care? Waste of time discuss this topic, next throw this thread into the trash can.

I care. Many Thai people I read on Thai political forum care.
You are from very far and you don't care. We are near and we care.

 

[Beast]

There isn't a single country in East or Southeast Asia that actually likes China aside from maybe Thailand and Cambodia. Why don't they try to make friends, then they could probably succeed in their mission.

Is there a single country in ASEAN like US?

 

[somsak]

I got a question.
Is China trying to ost US from Asia? If not, how can discussion come to conclusion of success or failure? It just like asking "Will blaack flag success to be a doctor?" When blackflag never say he want to be.

 

[cnleio]

Not in next 10 years

 

[Pinoy]

NO!